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Q1 results for 2026:
-28.5 pts for January
-4 pts for February
-7.25 pts for March
and these are at the fancy prices no-one else can get.
Looks like the market's cottoned on to his selection methods. General steady decline in returns for several years - is it curtains for Shug?
-28.5 pts for January
-4 pts for February
-7.25 pts for March
and these are at the fancy prices no-one else can get.
Looks like the market's cottoned on to his selection methods. General steady decline in returns for several years - is it curtains for Shug?
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He blocked me a while back on X when i posted something similar…..
The great Nevo also blocked me too,,,,touchy individuals tbh.
THE SQUIRREL alwayS decideS when he thinks youve found enough NUTS 
"Looks like the market's cottoned on to his selection methods."
Not sure that conclusion stands up, the strike rate is down so it's losers rather than prices that are causing the damage. He tends to have a lot of picks related to reading pedigrees, or horses being similar to types trainers have won with before, in other words selecting horses based on what other horses have done, - a recipe for going off the rails in my experience. Value prices are subjective though, and three losing months is nowhere near a viable sample.
Not sure that conclusion stands up, the strike rate is down so it's losers rather than prices that are causing the damage. He tends to have a lot of picks related to reading pedigrees, or horses being similar to types trainers have won with before, in other words selecting horses based on what other horses have done, - a recipe for going off the rails in my experience. Value prices are subjective though, and three losing months is nowhere near a viable sample.
first one this month, advised @10 -8th of ten @14/1 sp.
Must be the only tipping that hack that takes every weekend off.
Must be the only tipping that hack that takes every weekend off.
Apr 1, 2026 -- 8:12PM, steerforth wrote:
"Looks like the market's cottoned on to his selection methods."Not sure that conclusion stands up, the strike rate is
FWIW I always think HT is best when anticipating well handicapped AW horses returning to artificals after running on turf. One of those today.
Sir Hugh still having problems finding a winner or two.
He's due one.. or two.
He's due one.. or two.
Au contraire.
Fordy always dodges the losers and will be on the double, treble if the reels drop fortuitously.
He follows umpteen tipsterers and will shower them with compliments in turn just to bag a reply in the manner of a dedicated sycophant.
Everyone else is just not savvy enough to maintain a winning tipsterer strategy.
Fordy always dodges the losers and will be on the double, treble if the reels drop fortuitously.
He follows umpteen tipsterers and will shower them with compliments in turn just to bag a reply in the manner of a dedicated sycophant.
Everyone else is just not savvy enough to maintain a winning tipsterer strategy.
Hugh writes:
It has been a very poor first four months of the year for this column, and I thought it was worth addressing why this might have been the case, particularly in comparison with the last four months of 2025.
From September to December inclusive, the column was 98 points up; at the time of writing, from January to April the column is 55 points down. That’s quite a turnaround, and obviously very disappointing, as the last four months have probably been the worst sustained run of my 17-year career as ATR tipster.
I wouldn’t hide from the fact that there’s been plenty of poor judgement on my part, though the margin between doing very well and very badly can be very fine. I’ve had an almost identical number of selections over the last two four-month periods, and have had more top-three finishes over the last four months than the previous period (49 compared to 47), the issue being there were 26 winners compared to 23 placed horses in the first period, whereas this year so far the balance has been 11 wins compared with 37 seconds or thirds.
There’s a degree of variance involved there, clearly, but I’d also say the overnight and early-morning markets are probably sharper now than at any time in terms of the type of horses that I tend to land on being very well found in the market in recent months, especially when there are only one or two Flat meetings. It’s a habitual problem for tipsters, especially if you have a fairly big platform and have an impact on the market, as angles that you use tend to be well-adopted over time - this is more true than ever these days with the increased quality and quantity of data and interpretation tools available.
Trying to decide which parts of an approach need to be adjusted because any edge has gone and which aspects have just underperformed in recent months because of variance is a regular part of the reviewing process, and that’s certainly the case at the moment.
One of the reasons I’ve always recorded a full breakdown of my selections and month-by-month profit or loss tallies is to show the realities of betting in terms of peaks and troughs, and the importance of acknowledging that uneven results, even over a fairly long period of time, are inevitable.
I’ve never been a fan of crowing when I’ve had winners or beating myself up when I’m doing badly, but there’s an increasing trend, on social media especially, for people calling themselves tipsters to highlight only positive results and in the case of those targeting the more impressionable readers, to link what they claim to be their success to a lavish lifestyle. But I’d emphasise that even the best betting judges don’t win all the time, and sometimes they endure such bad losing runs it’s hard to believe they are successful at what they do. The only responsible way is to record all results, bad and good.
I’d add that the aims of the column as stated in the FAQ still apply, through good times and bad - “To provide an interesting read, give punters a chance of backing a big-priced winner from time to time, and - just as importantly - hopefully get readers interested in the whole area of form study.”
So it appears likely that the market has indeed cottoned on. I wonder what the outcome would have been if he hadn't gone into such granular detail about his selection methods.
It has been a very poor first four months of the year for this column, and I thought it was worth addressing why this might have been the case, particularly in comparison with the last four months of 2025.
From September to December inclusive, the column was 98 points up; at the time of writing, from January to April the column is 55 points down. That’s quite a turnaround, and obviously very disappointing, as the last four months have probably been the worst sustained run of my 17-year career as ATR tipster.
I wouldn’t hide from the fact that there’s been plenty of poor judgement on my part, though the margin between doing very well and very badly can be very fine. I’ve had an almost identical number of selections over the last two four-month periods, and have had more top-three finishes over the last four months than the previous period (49 compared to 47), the issue being there were 26 winners compared to 23 placed horses in the first period, whereas this year so far the balance has been 11 wins compared with 37 seconds or thirds.
There’s a degree of variance involved there, clearly, but I’d also say the overnight and early-morning markets are probably sharper now than at any time in terms of the type of horses that I tend to land on being very well found in the market in recent months, especially when there are only one or two Flat meetings. It’s a habitual problem for tipsters, especially if you have a fairly big platform and have an impact on the market, as angles that you use tend to be well-adopted over time - this is more true than ever these days with the increased quality and quantity of data and interpretation tools available.
Trying to decide which parts of an approach need to be adjusted because any edge has gone and which aspects have just underperformed in recent months because of variance is a regular part of the reviewing process, and that’s certainly the case at the moment.
One of the reasons I’ve always recorded a full breakdown of my selections and month-by-month profit or loss tallies is to show the realities of betting in terms of peaks and troughs, and the importance of acknowledging that uneven results, even over a fairly long period of time, are inevitable.
I’ve never been a fan of crowing when I’ve had winners or beating myself up when I’m doing badly, but there’s an increasing trend, on social media especially, for people calling themselves tipsters to highlight only positive results and in the case of those targeting the more impressionable readers, to link what they claim to be their success to a lavish lifestyle. But I’d emphasise that even the best betting judges don’t win all the time, and sometimes they endure such bad losing runs it’s hard to believe they are successful at what they do. The only responsible way is to record all results, bad and good.
I’d add that the aims of the column as stated in the FAQ still apply, through good times and bad - “To provide an interesting read, give punters a chance of backing a big-priced winner from time to time, and - just as importantly - hopefully get readers interested in the whole area of form study.”
So it appears likely that the market has indeed cottoned on. I wonder what the outcome would have been if he hadn't gone into such granular detail about his selection methods.
long losing runs are inevitable at the prices he bets at.It is actually a good time to start following him now. The tide will turn.
So just one or two decent-priced winners behind then?
What are the odds for....
a) a losing year in 2026
b) a profit of less than 100 pts in 2026
c) a profit of over 100pts in 2026
What are the odds for....
a) a losing year in 2026
b) a profit of less than 100 pts in 2026
c) a profit of over 100pts in 2026
10% ROI is regarded as professional level. To make 100 points profit in a year would require 1,000 bets (nearly 3 per day). Does he give those many tips ?
so hes around +40 for the last 8 months ? if thats over 400 bets hes still doing really well. Variance kills off many a punter
It comes these runs I seem to recall the posts Tom having a 70 losing run, him cutting out Saturdays where plenty of opportunities happen must have a big negative on results long term, he’d be better off losing Sunday Monday than sat sun
Making a profit at bfsp is a true mark,not some fantasy bookmaker price where u will be restricted chop chop.
If you'd backed every horse in GB handicaps with 14 or more runners over the last 5 years you'd have made a loss of over 4,000 points at SP - and a profit of over 80 points at BFSP! BFSP can randomly turn moderate tipsters into apparently good ones. It's no guide at all.
Hugh Taylor, circa 2025
Hugh Taylor, circa 2025
But the puzzle is why does anyone bet at industry SP? You only have to watch the price changes on the screen on RTV and Sky to know that the prices on most horses fall in the last minute before the off. The tipping comps on here use industry SP which is fine so long as everyone knows that. The relatively small monthy profits of the best tipster in each league gives an idea of how hard it is to make a profit. Only those who put in double figure prices and land on a winner get a monthly profit above £10. I have been participating in the leagues for about 8 months now and I am struck by how many players stick with very short odds on shots.
It is quite hard to bet at SP now because mostly you get the price by default.
"If you'd backed every horse with GB bred parents (i.e. Sire and Dam) in GB Turf races with 14 or fewer runners over the last 5 years you'd have made a loss of over 4,000 points at SP - and a profit of over 1300 points at BFSP!
BFSP can randomly turn moderate statisticians into apparently good ones. It's no guide at all".
top2rated, circa May 2026.
BFSP can randomly turn moderate statisticians into apparently good ones. It's no guide at all".
top2rated, circa May 2026.
PS
Just the six qualifiers today, all at Chester...
2.05 Percys Lad - God Of War
3.40 Rubys Angel
4.10 Tornado Tower
4.45 Sujet - A War Eagle
Just the six qualifiers today, all at Chester...
2.05 Percys Lad - God Of War
3.40 Rubys Angel
4.10 Tornado Tower
4.45 Sujet - A War Eagle
Tame The Tiger + 10% is regarded as professional level ! Says who ? So if you won only 8% over a year , you aren't up to the mark ! Absolute garbage !
To be fair to Tame The Tiger, 10% is a theoretical starting point from which you set your goals. It gives you an idea for setting your budgetary expectations and therefore your year long turnover requirements.
Achieving winning years in excess of 10% profit on turnover are exceptional and rare in my personal experience.
As long as you exceed your forecast weekly turnover then 5% can keep the wolf from the door.
Achieving winning years in excess of 10% profit on turnover are exceptional and rare in my personal experience.
As long as you exceed your forecast weekly turnover then 5% can keep the wolf from the door.
8% profit is fine. any profit is fine. If youre making over 10% ROI you are an elite gambler. Making 20% would be phenomenal and not truly sustainable long term.
Key Benchmarks for Pro ROI 0% –
2%: Break-even or small profit. This is considered acceptable as it beats the vig (bookmaker commission).
3% – 5%: A solid, professional-level performance.
5% – 10%: A very strong, high-performance, sustainable ROI, often viewed as the "sweet spot" for long-term pros.
>10%: Exceptional. This is difficult to sustain over a long period or high volume, often indicating a lucky streak or a very small, specialized sample.
2%: Break-even or small profit. This is considered acceptable as it beats the vig (bookmaker commission).
3% – 5%: A solid, professional-level performance.
5% – 10%: A very strong, high-performance, sustainable ROI, often viewed as the "sweet spot" for long-term pros.
>10%: Exceptional. This is difficult to sustain over a long period or high volume, often indicating a lucky streak or a very small, specialized sample.
Fair play to you for putting up a more reasonable assesment,much appreciated .
Fair play to you for putting up a more reasonable assesment,much appreciated .
TTT - so HT's average ROI over 17 years is at 29.29% or three times that which would be rated exceptional.
Given that those returns are based on prices which are advertised at some stage, it demonstrates that he is highly skilled at identifying value in advertised prices.
However, the reality is that those bets would never materialise in the real world. Because they come from one source, the value is removed within seconds of becoming public, but more to the point, if he wasn't publishing, he would be shut down before his feet touched the ground.
Maybe he gets accomodated, if so, good luck to him, after all the information has value to those having their card marked and in a position to react. Unfortunately that's inevitably on one side of the equation only.
Given that those returns are based on prices which are advertised at some stage, it demonstrates that he is highly skilled at identifying value in advertised prices.
However, the reality is that those bets would never materialise in the real world. Because they come from one source, the value is removed within seconds of becoming public, but more to the point, if he wasn't publishing, he would be shut down before his feet touched the ground.
Maybe he gets accomodated, if so, good luck to him, after all the information has value to those having their card marked and in a position to react. Unfortunately that's inevitably on one side of the equation only.
that is an absolutely staggering ROI. but sadly the likes of us wont be on at anywhere near the prices he quotes, and like you say, if we were able to get on at those prices, we would soon be restricted/closed down
His ROI like all other tipsters is advertised to a theoretical £1 stake.
Those who have to make a living, say £50,000 a year, have to turn over in excess of £500,000 in order to achieve that figure. In order to do that one basically has to bet £2,000 per day in order to create the required turnover.
Says it all really, regarding the too good to be true world of mythical tipstering. That's why tipsters are paid a salary/retainer.
Those who have to make a living, say £50,000 a year, have to turn over in excess of £500,000 in order to achieve that figure. In order to do that one basically has to bet £2,000 per day in order to create the required turnover.
Says it all really, regarding the too good to be true world of mythical tipstering. That's why tipsters are paid a salary/retainer.
2 tips a day . Can I have £500e/w on each please. You can have £10 e/w each and the rest at SP. And here endeth the lesson on ROI, it meaneth zilch apart from a bit of fun. The only chance is a few winning on the same day and copping a multi.
When I was doing multiples with more than one horse in a race in the majority of races on betfair, betfair stopped it and moved it to sports book and you could take sp as a option and it was far more profitable than taking prices offered , so they stopped us having the option at sp, and I know longer do them on here, they close every little edge no matter how small,
As for roi it’s misleading and used that way when you have large turnover, the proper pros didn’t have large turnover they were selective and maybe 2- 5 a week bets, and the racing post did not allow bsp in any advertising as the claims to profit would escalate
As for roi it’s misleading and used that way when you have large turnover, the proper pros didn’t have large turnover they were selective and maybe 2- 5 a week bets, and the racing post did not allow bsp in any advertising as the claims to profit would escalate
My average turnover hovers between a quite wide range of £100k to £150k, over many years.
My highest ever annual profit was £13k - and that was in part due to a significant piece of luck.
And yes - I do use Hughs insights as a mall part of my approach.
My highest ever annual profit was £13k - and that was in part due to a significant piece of luck.
And yes - I do use Hughs insights as a mall part of my approach.
I'm afraid Know All is actually wrong on the turnover of propunters, unless his 2 to 5 bets a week are in 5 figure sums.
Whatever the reality, Hugh is having his temperament tested atm. I'm having a bad year and sweating, but his cat must be hiding in the cellar.
being down 6 units (points) over 158 bets is entirely normal due to variance,even when you have a 10% roi long term. 158 bets is a small sample size where randomness dominates. A few unlucky losses can easily create a temporary negative return before your edge returns.Dont panic or do anything rash, keep plodding on. Good luck !
Think I’ll apply for his place,can’t be too difficult tbh…..in my humble opinion.
Aceform could tip shat from a wheelbarrow.
What has happened to his Final Fling Thread
What has happened to his Final Fling Thread
May 7, 2026 -- 6:47PM, TameTheTiger wrote:
being down 6 units (points) over 158 bets is entirely normal due to variance,even when you have a 10% roi long term. 158 bets is a small sample size where randomness dominates. A few unlucky losses can easily create a temporary negative return before your edge returns.Dont panic or do anything rash, keep plodding on. Good luck !
Yep I'm fine with all that - many years of records to reassure and I've been here before - but it still counts as being a bad year -so far. The sample is just four and bit months and pinning it to bets within the calendar year to date is statistically irrelevant.
However what I would say is that experience should tell you when something underlying is changing and negative returns are relating to an approach that needs revising. I'm not in that position at the moment but I have been in the past. One seismic shift in the programme about 10 years ago (that is never commented on btw), had a huge impact on the methods I was using at the time. It took a while to adapt. I wonder if HT is encountering such a moment.
i have no idea what the seismic shift was but you have certainly done well to adapt and evolve.
The shift was the disappearance of claimers and sellers from the flat. There were hundreds of them and I used to farm them.
That's some decline in "claimers and sellers from the flat"...
| Year | Races |
| 2008 | 271 |
| 2009 | 295 |
| 2010 | 222 |
| 2011 | 204 |
| 2012 | 160 |
| 2013 | 154 |
| 2014 | 125 |
| 2015 | 108 |
| 2016 | 107 |
| 2017 | 94 |
| 2018 | 91 |
| 2019 | 84 |
| 2020 | 22 |
| 2021 | 61 |
| 2022 | 49 |
| 2023 | 27 |
| 2024 | 22 |
| 2025 | 25 |
| 2026 | 0 |
The decline in sellers and claiming races on the flat, which has seen a reduction of over 90% in some estimates, is driven by a combination of falling horse populations, shifting betting patterns, and a strategic move by racing authorities to improve the competitiveness of the sport.Key Reasons for the Decline in Sellers and Claiming Races:Declining Horse Population: A steady contraction in the number of horses in training (a 5.1% decline from pre-Covid 2019 levels as of late 2025) means there are fewer horses overall, leading to smaller field sizes and a preference to run in low-grade handicaps rather than risk selling in a claimer.Unattractive Betting Product: Sellers and claimers often have small, uncompetitive fields (average field size below eight). These races are less attractive to bettors and racecourses, making them commercially unsustainable.Shift to Other Race Types: In 2026, the programme is deliberately structured to favor developmental races (60% novices and 40% maidens) over traditional selling or restricted races.Low-Rating Limitations: From 2026, horses with a rating of 31 or lower are barred from handicaps, forcing them into weight-for-age races like selling and claiming races, or to be retired. This concentration of low-rated horses in these specific races has reduced their appeal.The "Premierisation" Strategy: The British Horseracing Authority (BHA) has focused on reducing the total number of races to increase field sizes in high-value races, which means fewer "filler" races like low-level claimers.Owner Preferences: Owners are increasingly reluctant to risk losing their horses for a low valuation in a claiming race, preferring to run in handicaps where they can retain ownership
Retention of ownership I get, but speaking for myself, I found these races to be highly profitable. I smile whenever I read punting advice that says to concentrate on classier racing. Yeah right! Assuming you concentrate on the better handicaps, and not the punting non-events that the elite trainers dominate, you're dealing with fields packed full of talented horses most of which can win on the right day.
Personally I prefer the "Sherlock Holmes method". Eliminate the impossible and what's left is the truth, however unlikely.
In sellers and claimers you could find several races every week, full of horses that just didn't have the ability to win any race. Finding the one that might, was a very successful approach.
Personally I prefer the "Sherlock Holmes method". Eliminate the impossible and what's left is the truth, however unlikely.
In sellers and claimers you could find several races every week, full of horses that just didn't have the ability to win any race. Finding the one that might, was a very successful approach.
Both selections today should be in the place lay market tbh.
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