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Destroyed Heart Wood in last years Ryanair and Gaelic Warrior at Leopardstown last time out.
They then proceed to be the 2 easiest winners of the festival.
Fact To File sat in his box wondering whats going on.
Horse and ante post punters fuming.
All because Willie threw his toys out of the pram.
They then proceed to be the 2 easiest winners of the festival.
Fact To File sat in his box wondering whats going on.
Horse and ante post punters fuming.
All because Willie threw his toys out of the pram.
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Replies: 13
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Could be. But FTF is inconsistent and GW doesn't like Leopardstown. GW also "destroyed" FTF at Kempton (to use your word). GW bound to be the higher rated horse after today too.
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Timeform have both GW and FTF on 174 now.
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You neglect to remember that Gaelic Warrior beat Fact to File over an inadequate distance when he wasn't 100%.
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Are you going to also take the 74 length beating of Grangeclare West last month rated 163, with subsequently beat Gerri Colombe by 5L a few weeks ago.
Only Willie knows how ready any of those horses were to run on those particular days. |
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If we took every result literally, Fact to file's win over Grangeclare west alone would rate him 238.
Under that logic, yes, he would be the best, just by a little bit ;) |
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Gaelic Warrior (Despite being keen) ran to somewhere in the region of 175-180 today.
To answer your question? No. Fact to file isn't a 180 rated chaser. |
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I'm also ignoring the Kempton run at Christmas where he was firmly put in his place by GW, as he didn't have his ground.
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Gaelic Warrior was clearly prepping at Leopardstown (where he was pulled back and FTF raced handy) for the Gold Cup taking that one race on face value is a bookies delight!
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EL, you make an interesting point - GW and FTF clearly prefer different conditions (course, ground, trip). Which is "better" will depend on the race conditions on the day. As your posts suggest, I think FTF is a bit of a goldilocks, and GW is more versatile (though, for example, he's never at his best at Leopardstown).
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Post-Cheltenham, Timeform has Majborough as top rated (177), even though they've given him the bad jumper "x". FTF on 175, GW and Il Etait Temps on 174.
RPRs have GW on 182, FTF on 177, Majborough 179, IET 176. Majborough's a tricky one, but I think the RPR for GW is closer than the Timeform mark. |
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I dont think this was entirely WM's deciscion to withdraw FtF from the race, inmop i think JP decided he didnt think it was worth risking the horse on what he thought was unsuitable ground to win a 2nd rate race like the Ryanair.
He had Jonbon in the race with a favs chance after FtF withdrawal and probably thought lets wait to Punchestown where the grounD will probably be more suitable and well watered. |
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Any rating of above 170 for Majborough is based on one race and that always rings alarm bells for me. His second best RPR is 169 when second to Found A Fifty. I don't see how you can rate a horse at 179 when he has run numerous times in the low 160s. He had eveything in his favour at the DRF and Marine Nationale would still have beaten him with anything like a clear round. Marine Nationale against Il Etait Temps would be really interesting on good/soft.
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Yes, there's a lot to be said for rating a horse on it's second or even third best performance, to eliminate freak performances. Akin to sports where the highest and lowest judge's scores are discounted.
(It wouldn't work for ORs because of the handicap blots it would create, but can be useful in other contexts.) I also find it bizarre that Timeform's top rated chaser can have the poor jumper x. Can the "best" chaser really be a poor jumper? |