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Could some kind person please copy it to here. Many thanks.
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Look at the number of requests we get for articles on here. The Post is getting more interesting after the Bruce M years.
Look at the number of requests we get for articles on here. The Post is getting more interesting after the Bruce M years.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/betting-insight/my-blueprint-for-beating-the-bookies-at-the-cheltenham-festival-honed-over-nearly-40-years-as-a-pro-punter-aYfLt7J2Tg9p/
My blueprint for beating the bookies at the Cheltenham Festival - honed over nearly 40 years as a pro punter
Steve Lewis Hamilton offers his advice in the first of a new series
Four days of the highest-quality jump racing at the most demanding racecourse of them all. What more could any jumps enthusiast ask for?
Actually, I think I can guess how punters would answer that question: “A profit over the four days.”
Many people have adopted different methods over the years to achieve this aim, and if you have found one that has been successful for you, then great. However, if you are still searching for the key to Cheltenham profits, I will detail my approach to the meeting, honed from nearly four decades of doing this for a living, and hopefully it will assist you in the battle to make it pay.
There are a couple of significant factors to consider before looking to bet in the festival races. The first is that every race is an early closer, so from some way out we know which horses are likely to run in which races, giving much greater time for form analysis than is available in the daily racing schedule.
Second, there is an extremely strong Irish representation to factor into the analysis of all the festival races. Tying in the British and Irish form lines can be problematic, but it is not an impossible task.
Initially, I will analyse each of the Graded races in chronological order. My private ratings and notes are crucial to me in identifying the strongest form lines and possible improvers. But by their very nature the novice championship races can be the most difficult to evaluate with any accuracy, because we have lightly raced, unexposed horses from elite stables who are progressive but have yet to encounter sustained pressure at championship pace. There is also the added imponderable of multiple entries from the same stable, all of whom are running on their own merits.
If there are too many unknown factors in any race that stop me from evaluating each runner's chance with confidence, then I will abort and move on to the next race. Remember that you don’t have to bet in them all!
I look at the handicaps nearer raceday. Although I have noted British horses I think may be better than their ratings indicate and have the potential to run well, the Irish handicap challenge is always greatly feared.
The non-novice championship races are the most appealing. These are the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Mares’ Hurdle, Stayers’ Hurdle, Ryanair Chase, Mares’ Chase, Gold Cup and hunter chase. Each demands an understanding of what this track requires, rather than what reputation or raw ability alone might suggest.
I will carry out my form analysis and video work on each of these races. I believe there are certain attributes a horse requires to win at the festival and previous proof of these, or at least a strong indication, is always positive.
The ability to stay the trip strongly is crucial. Most, if not all, of the festival races are run at a sound pace, and the ability and willingness of the horse to get up the final hill is paramount. Therefore, course form, especially in a strongly run race, is a big plus. Where Cheltenham form is absent, comparable evidence from stiff tracks under similar conditions becomes important.
Be wary of horses who have not achieved a good time figure in their performances. Horses can impress visually, but the substance of performance can be lacking. The Racing Post’s Topspeed marks can tell you this. Also be aware that horses may have been below their best in recent starts but have had the festival as their only target.
Although we will not know until nearer the time what the going will be, we can say with certainty that the powers-that-be will ensure it is no firmer than good, good to soft in places. As always, the ability to handle ground conditions is a priority.
After completing my form and video analysis, the next and most crucial task is to formulate what percentage chance I think each horse has of winning the race and then price each runner accordingly to a 100 per cent book.
Because the probable runners for each of these races are known well in advance, the betting markets are formed at a very early stage – and with very mature markets, it is less likely that there will be any major discrepancies between the bookmaker's prices and mine. However, there are many factors that can affect the market on any race, and because pricing a horse race is subjective, there will be differences of opinion. This might especially be the case following comments made by influential figures at the various Cheltenham previews, which can influence the markets.
The fevered festival environment can also produce overbet favourites, which will make those races of interest from a punting perspective. The great thing about betting on horseracing is that people will have very different opinions which are reflected in a horse's odds.
Selectivity is crucial. As mentioned above, you don’t need to bet in every race – some of which might be simply unsuitable for betting purposes. Recognising this and deciding not to bet is a skill in itself. The festival is not about having an opinion in every race; it is about having the right opinion in the right race at the right price.
The ideal scenario for me is to find a race where a runner or runners at or near the front of the market are too short a price in my opinion and taking out too big a percentage in the market. This then becomes a possible play race. If it is one horse I think is too short, then I can just use the exchanges to lay it. If I think a horse is overpriced, then I can back it. If I believe the prices on offer enable me to couple horses together, then that would also be an option to consider.
Fundamentally, my approach to betting at the Cheltenham Festival is the same as my daily betting routine: thorough analysis of every runner; evaluation of each runner's percentage chance of winning the race; finally, pricing every horse in the race. I will only back a horse if the odds are bigger than I calculate they should be; I will only lay a horse if the odds are shorter than I calculate they should be.
Be lucky at the festival, and with all your punting.
My blueprint for beating the bookies at the Cheltenham Festival - honed over nearly 40 years as a pro punter
Steve Lewis Hamilton offers his advice in the first of a new series
Four days of the highest-quality jump racing at the most demanding racecourse of them all. What more could any jumps enthusiast ask for?
Actually, I think I can guess how punters would answer that question: “A profit over the four days.”
Many people have adopted different methods over the years to achieve this aim, and if you have found one that has been successful for you, then great. However, if you are still searching for the key to Cheltenham profits, I will detail my approach to the meeting, honed from nearly four decades of doing this for a living, and hopefully it will assist you in the battle to make it pay.
There are a couple of significant factors to consider before looking to bet in the festival races. The first is that every race is an early closer, so from some way out we know which horses are likely to run in which races, giving much greater time for form analysis than is available in the daily racing schedule.
Second, there is an extremely strong Irish representation to factor into the analysis of all the festival races. Tying in the British and Irish form lines can be problematic, but it is not an impossible task.
Initially, I will analyse each of the Graded races in chronological order. My private ratings and notes are crucial to me in identifying the strongest form lines and possible improvers. But by their very nature the novice championship races can be the most difficult to evaluate with any accuracy, because we have lightly raced, unexposed horses from elite stables who are progressive but have yet to encounter sustained pressure at championship pace. There is also the added imponderable of multiple entries from the same stable, all of whom are running on their own merits.
If there are too many unknown factors in any race that stop me from evaluating each runner's chance with confidence, then I will abort and move on to the next race. Remember that you don’t have to bet in them all!
I look at the handicaps nearer raceday. Although I have noted British horses I think may be better than their ratings indicate and have the potential to run well, the Irish handicap challenge is always greatly feared.
The non-novice championship races are the most appealing. These are the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Mares’ Hurdle, Stayers’ Hurdle, Ryanair Chase, Mares’ Chase, Gold Cup and hunter chase. Each demands an understanding of what this track requires, rather than what reputation or raw ability alone might suggest.
I will carry out my form analysis and video work on each of these races. I believe there are certain attributes a horse requires to win at the festival and previous proof of these, or at least a strong indication, is always positive.
The ability to stay the trip strongly is crucial. Most, if not all, of the festival races are run at a sound pace, and the ability and willingness of the horse to get up the final hill is paramount. Therefore, course form, especially in a strongly run race, is a big plus. Where Cheltenham form is absent, comparable evidence from stiff tracks under similar conditions becomes important.
Be wary of horses who have not achieved a good time figure in their performances. Horses can impress visually, but the substance of performance can be lacking. The Racing Post’s Topspeed marks can tell you this. Also be aware that horses may have been below their best in recent starts but have had the festival as their only target.
Although we will not know until nearer the time what the going will be, we can say with certainty that the powers-that-be will ensure it is no firmer than good, good to soft in places. As always, the ability to handle ground conditions is a priority.
After completing my form and video analysis, the next and most crucial task is to formulate what percentage chance I think each horse has of winning the race and then price each runner accordingly to a 100 per cent book.
Because the probable runners for each of these races are known well in advance, the betting markets are formed at a very early stage – and with very mature markets, it is less likely that there will be any major discrepancies between the bookmaker's prices and mine. However, there are many factors that can affect the market on any race, and because pricing a horse race is subjective, there will be differences of opinion. This might especially be the case following comments made by influential figures at the various Cheltenham previews, which can influence the markets.
The fevered festival environment can also produce overbet favourites, which will make those races of interest from a punting perspective. The great thing about betting on horseracing is that people will have very different opinions which are reflected in a horse's odds.
Selectivity is crucial. As mentioned above, you don’t need to bet in every race – some of which might be simply unsuitable for betting purposes. Recognising this and deciding not to bet is a skill in itself. The festival is not about having an opinion in every race; it is about having the right opinion in the right race at the right price.
The ideal scenario for me is to find a race where a runner or runners at or near the front of the market are too short a price in my opinion and taking out too big a percentage in the market. This then becomes a possible play race. If it is one horse I think is too short, then I can just use the exchanges to lay it. If I think a horse is overpriced, then I can back it. If I believe the prices on offer enable me to couple horses together, then that would also be an option to consider.
Fundamentally, my approach to betting at the Cheltenham Festival is the same as my daily betting routine: thorough analysis of every runner; evaluation of each runner's percentage chance of winning the race; finally, pricing every horse in the race. I will only back a horse if the odds are bigger than I calculate they should be; I will only lay a horse if the odds are shorter than I calculate they should be.
Be lucky at the festival, and with all your punting.
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