Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
11 Feb 26
08:24
Joined:
Date Joined:
05 Oct 11
Can anyone post his article. I agree with him, and just wondering whether he has made any different arguments to mine.
Thanks
Thanks
Show More
As Porky Pig says at the end of Looney Tunes cartoons: "That’s all, folks!”
Well, almost. Only three of last year’s Cheltenham Festival winners ran later in the racing calendar than this: Myretown, Golden Ace and Doddiethegreat. Their pre-festival appearances were at Kelso, Wincanton and Haydock, all meetings scheduled for the next few days.
With most of the form in the book, our job now is to study it and bet accordingly. Sounds straightforward, doesn’t it? If only it were that simple. Unfortunately, well-fancied horses with a choice of festival targets make life tricky for punters, and not just for those horses – there will be others whose running plans will be influenced by where the fancied ones run.
This year’s rogues’ gallery includes Fact To File, Gaelic Warrior, Doctor Steinberg, Lossiemouth, Mighty Park and Jade De Grugy. Notice anything about those six horses? Me too. Frustrating, isn’t it?
I’m going to start with the first of those, because he’s causing havoc in the Gold Cup and Ryanair markets. Although Fact To File wasn’t entered in the Gold Cup, he can be supplemented on March 7, as his owner did with last year’s winner Inothewayurthinkin.
Inothewayurthinkin: Gold Cup hero
Inothewayurthinkin: won last year's Gold Cup after being supplemented
Credit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)
To give yourself the best chance of success in the punting game, you should be willing to back yourself and go against the crowd when you think you’re on to something. While you won’t always be right – far from it – when you are, the rewards and satisfaction will be all the sweeter. My opinion will upset purists and 99 per cent of pundits who have expressed an opinion, but I suggest JP McManus saves himself the £25,000 supplementary entry fee because I’m convinced that Fact To File won’t stay the Gold Cup trip.
When he crossed the line five lengths clear of stablemate Gaelic Warrior in the Irish Gold Cup, many cited the performance as evidence that he now stays well enough to tackle the extra two furlongs of the British version next month. How many times will his pricked ears be mentioned at Cheltenham preview evenings? He’d barely pulled up before the old chestnut about horses gaining stamina as they get older was trotted out as if it were fact. Let’s put a stop to that right now. Hopefully, it’ll soon be in the same dustbin as the idea that you need a good two-and-a-half-miler for the Grand National.
When a jumps horse reaches maturity, around six years old, its aerobic metabolism is fully developed and cardiac output is at its maximum. Genetics determine the size of its heart, the ratio of fast-twitch to slow-twitch muscle fibres, conformation and so on. Its optimal racing distance will be a function of those physical traits and its temperament, principally its ability to use energy reserves evenly during a race.
Three years later, at the age of nine, things start to go downhill. VO2 max declines, lactate clearance slows and recovery between efforts takes longer. Speed is lost before stamina, which is why horses tend to go up in trip in the later stages of their careers. Crucially, they aren’t gaining stamina; they’re simply losing speed.
Getting older isn’t much fun for anyone, man or beast, but at least there is the benefit of increased maturity. Horses learn to jump and settle better as they mature from six-year-olds, which helps them to distribute their energy more evenly during a race, and they typically hit career peaks at the ages of seven and eight – just look at the recent history of Gold Cup winners if you need convincing.
Fact To File is a nine-year-old. He’s starting to lose his speed, but he’s not gaining stamina in some kind of compensatory trade-off. Stamina has a hard, genetic limit.
Fact To File bounced back from a poor King George effort with a brilliant success at Leopardstown
Fact To File beats Gaelic Warrior in the Irish Gold Cup - but is ill-equipped to follow up in the Cheltenham equivalent
Credit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)
I thought his performance at Leopardstown was a perfect demonstration of something sports scientists call speed endurance – the ability to maintain a high speed for longer than usual without a major drop-off. He set off at a good pace and kept rolling. The speed he maintained in testing conditions was too much for most of his rivals. Horses predisposed to stamina were taken off their feet, forced into jumping errors and never able to land a blow.
Stamina is something altogether different; it’s the ability to sustain effort over time, regardless of speed. Royale Pagaille showed what stamina looks like when he got back up to beat Grey Dawning in the 2024 Betfair Chase. If you’re still struggling to differentiate between speed endurance and stamina, note the contrast between that performance and Fact To File’s Irish Gold Cup victory.
Another drawback of reaching Fact To File’s age is the increased time needed to recover from hard races. Don’t let the apparent ease of his Leopardstown victory fool you; that was a huge effort. It’s something else connections may wish to consider before asking him to go deep into the red zone by tackling the extra distance of the Gold Cup.
One advantage of getting older – and we’ll take whatever we can – is experience. I’ve seen this movie before. Remember Gordon Richards’ dashing grey chaser One Man? He was mustard at anything up to three miles, but dig out replays of his near-identical performances in the 1996 and 1997 Gold Cups. On both occasions, with an extra quarter of a mile up the Cheltenham hill to negotiate, he goes from hero to zero in the blink of an eye, eventually crossing the line almost legless and over 30 lengths adrift.
Those old enough to remember the horse will need no reminding he famously dropped back in trip to win the Champion Chase in 1998 – with an exhibition of speed endurance. Before anyone points to his Hennessy victory, as a six-year-old, over three and a quarter miles, remember that was off a mark of 135!
We were treated to another thrilling exhibition of speed endurance from Fact To File in last year’s Ryanair Chase. It’s what he does. Try to hold on to him and you blunt his greatest asset. Anyone suggesting his win in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase offers evidence he can be ridden conservatively needs to remind themselves how weak that renewal was and how slowly the race was run.
Let him roll over the Gold Cup trip and I’m betting we’ll see the ghost of One Man. Very few horses can sustain speed endurance over the Gold Cup trip. Even Denman wasn’t in that mould. He was a generational talent but blessed more with stamina than speed. I don’t remember his ever being considered fast enough to drop back in trip for a Grade 1 two-mile chase as an eight-year-old.
Fact To File and Mark Walsh win the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
Fact To File and Mark Walsh win the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
Credit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)
If connections go for gold, which most see as a foregone conclusion, how does that sit with the Mullins mantra of running horses in the race they’re most likely to win? I hope they stick with Plan A and run in the Ryanair because I can’t see anything getting him off the bridle. I wonder if the performance of another of JP’s stars and Ryanair entries, Jonbon, in Saturday’s Ascot Chase could yet play a part in the decision-making process.
Full disclosure: I’ve backed Fact To File for the Ryanair at nice prices and I’ve also put him up in one of my articles. If he does switch to the Gold Cup, I’ll be looking to recover my stake – and more besides – by laying him in both the pre-race and in-running markets for that and backing his likely replacement Gaelic Warrior in the Ryanair.
Returning to the rogues’ gallery, Mighty Park – firmly in the could-be-anything category – casts a long shadow over the novice hurdle markets. Rumours his owner is interested in adding recent Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle winner Talk The Talk to an already formidable Cheltenham team have seen his price shorten for the Turners and lengthen for the Supreme, as shrewdies reason that if he has Talk The Talk for the Supreme, Mighty Park would likely head to the Turners. Watch this space. I understand a seven-figure price tag is involved. My hunch is that Mighty Park will run in the Turners regardless; he’s a big, strong chasing type, and the longer race appears much the easier option.
With uncertainties over the festival destinations of Mighty Park and another Mullins horse from the rogues’ gallery, Doctor Steinberg – the Albert Bartlett favourite – I’ve been backing Skylight Hustle for the Turners. He was keeping Talk The Talk honest in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle before that one’s fall at the last and the way he ran to the line suggested more to come over another half mile.
Skylight Hustle and Jack Kennedy on the way to winning the 2m maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse on Saturday
Skylight Hustle: more to come when stepped up in trip
Credit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)
He's shortened to a best-priced 8-1 since that form was boosted at the DRF, but I expect him to be even shorter on the day, assuming no more than one of the Mullins pair lines up. Jack Kennedy is likely to have the choice between him and Ballyfad, but I expect that one’s tendency to jump right will steer him towards the selection on Cheltenham’s turning Old course.
Let’s hope we soon have some clarity on the running plans for some of these horses. Whatever happens in the Gold Cup, I’ll be looking towards the youngsters. The record of those aged seven and eight speaks for itself. With Inothewayurthinkin looking a shadow of last year, that means Jango Baie, The Jukebox Man and Gaelic Warrior, if he runs.
We await a decision on Fact To File’s destination next month, but if it is the Gold Cup, don’t be surprised to see his jockey reaching hopefully into his reserves of stamina after jumping two out, only to find the cupboard bare, save for our little Porky friend shrugging apologetically: “That’s all, folks!”
Well, almost. Only three of last year’s Cheltenham Festival winners ran later in the racing calendar than this: Myretown, Golden Ace and Doddiethegreat. Their pre-festival appearances were at Kelso, Wincanton and Haydock, all meetings scheduled for the next few days.
With most of the form in the book, our job now is to study it and bet accordingly. Sounds straightforward, doesn’t it? If only it were that simple. Unfortunately, well-fancied horses with a choice of festival targets make life tricky for punters, and not just for those horses – there will be others whose running plans will be influenced by where the fancied ones run.
This year’s rogues’ gallery includes Fact To File, Gaelic Warrior, Doctor Steinberg, Lossiemouth, Mighty Park and Jade De Grugy. Notice anything about those six horses? Me too. Frustrating, isn’t it?
I’m going to start with the first of those, because he’s causing havoc in the Gold Cup and Ryanair markets. Although Fact To File wasn’t entered in the Gold Cup, he can be supplemented on March 7, as his owner did with last year’s winner Inothewayurthinkin.
Inothewayurthinkin: Gold Cup hero
Inothewayurthinkin: won last year's Gold Cup after being supplemented
Credit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)
To give yourself the best chance of success in the punting game, you should be willing to back yourself and go against the crowd when you think you’re on to something. While you won’t always be right – far from it – when you are, the rewards and satisfaction will be all the sweeter. My opinion will upset purists and 99 per cent of pundits who have expressed an opinion, but I suggest JP McManus saves himself the £25,000 supplementary entry fee because I’m convinced that Fact To File won’t stay the Gold Cup trip.
When he crossed the line five lengths clear of stablemate Gaelic Warrior in the Irish Gold Cup, many cited the performance as evidence that he now stays well enough to tackle the extra two furlongs of the British version next month. How many times will his pricked ears be mentioned at Cheltenham preview evenings? He’d barely pulled up before the old chestnut about horses gaining stamina as they get older was trotted out as if it were fact. Let’s put a stop to that right now. Hopefully, it’ll soon be in the same dustbin as the idea that you need a good two-and-a-half-miler for the Grand National.
When a jumps horse reaches maturity, around six years old, its aerobic metabolism is fully developed and cardiac output is at its maximum. Genetics determine the size of its heart, the ratio of fast-twitch to slow-twitch muscle fibres, conformation and so on. Its optimal racing distance will be a function of those physical traits and its temperament, principally its ability to use energy reserves evenly during a race.
Three years later, at the age of nine, things start to go downhill. VO2 max declines, lactate clearance slows and recovery between efforts takes longer. Speed is lost before stamina, which is why horses tend to go up in trip in the later stages of their careers. Crucially, they aren’t gaining stamina; they’re simply losing speed.
Getting older isn’t much fun for anyone, man or beast, but at least there is the benefit of increased maturity. Horses learn to jump and settle better as they mature from six-year-olds, which helps them to distribute their energy more evenly during a race, and they typically hit career peaks at the ages of seven and eight – just look at the recent history of Gold Cup winners if you need convincing.
Fact To File is a nine-year-old. He’s starting to lose his speed, but he’s not gaining stamina in some kind of compensatory trade-off. Stamina has a hard, genetic limit.
Fact To File bounced back from a poor King George effort with a brilliant success at Leopardstown
Fact To File beats Gaelic Warrior in the Irish Gold Cup - but is ill-equipped to follow up in the Cheltenham equivalent
Credit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)
I thought his performance at Leopardstown was a perfect demonstration of something sports scientists call speed endurance – the ability to maintain a high speed for longer than usual without a major drop-off. He set off at a good pace and kept rolling. The speed he maintained in testing conditions was too much for most of his rivals. Horses predisposed to stamina were taken off their feet, forced into jumping errors and never able to land a blow.
Stamina is something altogether different; it’s the ability to sustain effort over time, regardless of speed. Royale Pagaille showed what stamina looks like when he got back up to beat Grey Dawning in the 2024 Betfair Chase. If you’re still struggling to differentiate between speed endurance and stamina, note the contrast between that performance and Fact To File’s Irish Gold Cup victory.
Another drawback of reaching Fact To File’s age is the increased time needed to recover from hard races. Don’t let the apparent ease of his Leopardstown victory fool you; that was a huge effort. It’s something else connections may wish to consider before asking him to go deep into the red zone by tackling the extra distance of the Gold Cup.
One advantage of getting older – and we’ll take whatever we can – is experience. I’ve seen this movie before. Remember Gordon Richards’ dashing grey chaser One Man? He was mustard at anything up to three miles, but dig out replays of his near-identical performances in the 1996 and 1997 Gold Cups. On both occasions, with an extra quarter of a mile up the Cheltenham hill to negotiate, he goes from hero to zero in the blink of an eye, eventually crossing the line almost legless and over 30 lengths adrift.
Those old enough to remember the horse will need no reminding he famously dropped back in trip to win the Champion Chase in 1998 – with an exhibition of speed endurance. Before anyone points to his Hennessy victory, as a six-year-old, over three and a quarter miles, remember that was off a mark of 135!
We were treated to another thrilling exhibition of speed endurance from Fact To File in last year’s Ryanair Chase. It’s what he does. Try to hold on to him and you blunt his greatest asset. Anyone suggesting his win in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase offers evidence he can be ridden conservatively needs to remind themselves how weak that renewal was and how slowly the race was run.
Let him roll over the Gold Cup trip and I’m betting we’ll see the ghost of One Man. Very few horses can sustain speed endurance over the Gold Cup trip. Even Denman wasn’t in that mould. He was a generational talent but blessed more with stamina than speed. I don’t remember his ever being considered fast enough to drop back in trip for a Grade 1 two-mile chase as an eight-year-old.
Fact To File and Mark Walsh win the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
Fact To File and Mark Walsh win the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
Credit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)
If connections go for gold, which most see as a foregone conclusion, how does that sit with the Mullins mantra of running horses in the race they’re most likely to win? I hope they stick with Plan A and run in the Ryanair because I can’t see anything getting him off the bridle. I wonder if the performance of another of JP’s stars and Ryanair entries, Jonbon, in Saturday’s Ascot Chase could yet play a part in the decision-making process.
Full disclosure: I’ve backed Fact To File for the Ryanair at nice prices and I’ve also put him up in one of my articles. If he does switch to the Gold Cup, I’ll be looking to recover my stake – and more besides – by laying him in both the pre-race and in-running markets for that and backing his likely replacement Gaelic Warrior in the Ryanair.
Returning to the rogues’ gallery, Mighty Park – firmly in the could-be-anything category – casts a long shadow over the novice hurdle markets. Rumours his owner is interested in adding recent Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle winner Talk The Talk to an already formidable Cheltenham team have seen his price shorten for the Turners and lengthen for the Supreme, as shrewdies reason that if he has Talk The Talk for the Supreme, Mighty Park would likely head to the Turners. Watch this space. I understand a seven-figure price tag is involved. My hunch is that Mighty Park will run in the Turners regardless; he’s a big, strong chasing type, and the longer race appears much the easier option.
With uncertainties over the festival destinations of Mighty Park and another Mullins horse from the rogues’ gallery, Doctor Steinberg – the Albert Bartlett favourite – I’ve been backing Skylight Hustle for the Turners. He was keeping Talk The Talk honest in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle before that one’s fall at the last and the way he ran to the line suggested more to come over another half mile.
Skylight Hustle and Jack Kennedy on the way to winning the 2m maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse on Saturday
Skylight Hustle: more to come when stepped up in trip
Credit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)
He's shortened to a best-priced 8-1 since that form was boosted at the DRF, but I expect him to be even shorter on the day, assuming no more than one of the Mullins pair lines up. Jack Kennedy is likely to have the choice between him and Ballyfad, but I expect that one’s tendency to jump right will steer him towards the selection on Cheltenham’s turning Old course.
Let’s hope we soon have some clarity on the running plans for some of these horses. Whatever happens in the Gold Cup, I’ll be looking towards the youngsters. The record of those aged seven and eight speaks for itself. With Inothewayurthinkin looking a shadow of last year, that means Jango Baie, The Jukebox Man and Gaelic Warrior, if he runs.
We await a decision on Fact To File’s destination next month, but if it is the Gold Cup, don’t be surprised to see his jockey reaching hopefully into his reserves of stamina after jumping two out, only to find the cupboard bare, save for our little Porky friend shrugging apologetically: “That’s all, folks!”
Thanks for that.
Bit more scientific than my approach, although we are very much on the same page. I don't believe that he was a non stayer last year, and he has suddenly become a stayer. I also don't think the Irish Gold Cup was the staggering performance most appear to be suggesting. He beat off two dubious stayers, and a horse who appears in sharp decline. Many of the others didn't turn up on the day. The cheerleaders who were lauding the race beforehand were never going to change their opinions. I haven't backed him this year - the odds have never been that good - but if he wants to win a race (again) it should be the Ryanair.
Indirectly, well done for calling out Mullins. There is something badly wrong if a trainer doesn't know which way the wind is blowing a month off the Festival. The same goes for his cohort, Ruby Walsh, someone who brings a sum total of nothing to the table every year.
I agree with opposing No Drama This End, but not sure the answer is Skylight Hustle, or that Kennedy will pick him over Ballyfad.
I haven't been able to read his articles, but anyone know how Smith has been doing?
Bit more scientific than my approach, although we are very much on the same page. I don't believe that he was a non stayer last year, and he has suddenly become a stayer. I also don't think the Irish Gold Cup was the staggering performance most appear to be suggesting. He beat off two dubious stayers, and a horse who appears in sharp decline. Many of the others didn't turn up on the day. The cheerleaders who were lauding the race beforehand were never going to change their opinions. I haven't backed him this year - the odds have never been that good - but if he wants to win a race (again) it should be the Ryanair.
Indirectly, well done for calling out Mullins. There is something badly wrong if a trainer doesn't know which way the wind is blowing a month off the Festival. The same goes for his cohort, Ruby Walsh, someone who brings a sum total of nothing to the table every year.
I agree with opposing No Drama This End, but not sure the answer is Skylight Hustle, or that Kennedy will pick him over Ballyfad.
I haven't been able to read his articles, but anyone know how Smith has been doing?
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539