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makermemoney
07 Feb 26 14:00
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Date Joined: 03 Feb 26
| Topic/replies: 16 | Blogger: makermemoney's blog
How likely is it these days that your run of the mill 8 -10 runner low grade handicap on the aw would see a £1 BFSP back bet on an industry 50/1 shot NOT itself affect the returned BFSP.

ie i don't take part in the market the BFSP is 80.70 on this winner, would my £1 in this sort of race likely  have lowered this BFSP?

I know this is a hard question to be specific but I'm, interested what anyone thinks on this.

Thanks.
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Report makermemoney February 7, 2026 2:45 PM GMT
Bets    Wins Win% P/L(SP)    race%    ROI SP P/L BF ROI BF AVG Odds BF BF A/E BF CHI BF EXP WINS AVG BF WIN ODDS
20302    1022 5.03 -3626.25    6.83    -17.86 3365.8 16.58    37.67         1.15  20.42 890.17       23.61         



Amazing on paper in reality taking part even at really low stakes probably cannibalises the edge by shifting down the BFSP?
Report JML February 7, 2026 4:02 PM GMT
I think it would very slightly.Each horse is treated individually.

There was a thread on Bet Angel where someone said that increasing his greyhound SP bets from £5 to £10 took away his profit margin.
Report makermemoney February 7, 2026 4:41 PM GMT
Thank you JML

I would imagine that in those markets even pretty low 5, 6/1 shots are extremely volatile.
Report wondersobright February 7, 2026 6:19 PM GMT
so it's hugely profitable @ 22s avg odds but loss making @ 18s...shows you how important every tick is
Report wondersobright February 7, 2026 6:21 PM GMT
generally I would prefer not to be on at all rather than take an unsuitable price or chance a favourable BSP
Report longbridge February 10, 2026 1:43 PM GMT
I think there is very little chance any additional bet would not affect the BSP to some extent, because of the way it is calculated.

As to "how much?" - there's a question.  Looking at a similar market and runner to the one you suggested in today's racing - 1335 Ayr Bray Dale - there was £144 of backers' money at a BSP of 34, so you might expect placing a £1 back bet would shave about a quarter of a point off the BSP, but two things will act to counter - BSP layers seeing better value as more backers' money is shown and so betting more, and more Exchange money getting swept into the calculation as the implied BSP drops.
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