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Tbh, it's something I try not to get too carried away with ie did a horse have too hard a race on heavy ground to bounce back any time soon?
And the time of the Irish Champion Hurdle yesterday might tempt us into thinking that the ground wasn't too bad, but the visual impression with some horses finishing very tired would suggest that the ground is as described, so will it have left a mark on the likes of Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth?
And take Inothewayurthinkin, for example (not involved at the finish, which might have been a blessing), didn't even have the energy left to get over the second last.
And the time of the Irish Champion Hurdle yesterday might tempt us into thinking that the ground wasn't too bad, but the visual impression with some horses finishing very tired would suggest that the ground is as described, so will it have left a mark on the likes of Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth?
And take Inothewayurthinkin, for example (not involved at the finish, which might have been a blessing), didn't even have the energy left to get over the second last.
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Cheltenham next month George they’ll be discussing Cheltenham 2027…..
Most will be satisfied with their horses imv. |
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Probably come back to bite me in the bum...but not sure I'd be rushing to back Romeo Coolio for Chelts after today.
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ace, I wonder if any recent DRFs have been run on ground as bad as it seems to be this time around, then I could have look to see how the winners then fared at Cheltenham.
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How many were punished on the ground tho George once it was obvious….
Elliot horse 5/2 for the CH…..Deary me…. |
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The irish horses are competitive all year round......Hardened by hard races..
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Correct Aberdonia. A few might take more than 5 weeks to recover but most will benefit from being in a tough race.
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George.B, since the first DRF in 2018 no races run on 'Heavy' going as far as I can see.
However there have been four years, namely 2018, 2021, 2024 and 2025, where the going has been described as 'Soft' or 'Soft to Heavy'. Here are the results/qualifiers after running the variables through the Horseracebase System Builder....   |
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I've never been sure about the value of this DRF when assessing Cheltenham prospects. As George said, visual impressions count a lot and I wouldn't be rushing to back Lossiemouth who looked well tired. Three big winners at Leopardstown last year (soft) Final Demand, Majborough and Galopin were all beaten at Cheltenham. Maybe they left their best chance behind in Dublin.
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Or,maybe they were not good enough?
GDC looks on the downward slope and Final Demand may well have been overrated |
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True.
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Majborough would have won the Arkle barring a horrendous mistake two out.
Like people all horses are different and some are hardy types and others are more fragile |
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Lets not forget that many of the races at the DRF are worth as much as their Cheltenham equivalent so for owners, winning a Grade 1 there is just as important as at Cheltenham.
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Thanks for the statistical analysis, top2rated.
Looks like we've inadvertently come up with a winning system there. Nick Mordin eat ya heart out!  What I'll do for a bit of interest is bring the thread back up and list the DRF runners turning up at Cheltenham, and see how they get on. |
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heaven help us & relegate skew LSP
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WSB, looked those two up expecting to see that they had never figured at Leopardstown but both had won there before going on to Cheltenham, and in the case of Heaven Help Us, defied a 12lb rise.
So far from my crackpot theory of having a hard race at the DRF could be detrimental to a horse's chance at the Fez, it actually set those two up lovely! |
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they're all DRF winners in that list
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Indeed.
But it would appear this year was the worst ground the DRF has been run on since its inception so it will be interesting to see how well or otherwise the DRF runners get on at the Fez. |
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my view is more that DRF form will be overbet given likely better ground in march
6 weeks prob enough for most for all that heavy ground preps aren't ideal |
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Very good point sage 13.21.
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