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MANUELPADILLAJNR
02 Feb 26 11:46
Joined:
Date Joined: 03 Feb 11
| Topic/replies: 358 | Blogger: MANUELPADILLAJNR's blog
Runs today in the Irish Gold Cup and is currently 22-1 for this race at time of writing and yet 6-1 for the Gold Cup, maybe he will have all four legs for the gold cup whilst missing a couple today, Walsh chooses Fact or File and even I am Maximus is ahead of him in the betting today, might be interesting to see what price he gets pushed out to in the Gold Cup after today as surely cant win today with these vibes, something to look out for.
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Report impossible123 February 19, 2026 4:45 PM GMT
If so he'll be annihilated and probably finish a fence behind the winner or pull up before the 4th last. He's not the same horse. Something is amiss or is gone in the game.
Report freddiewilliams February 19, 2026 4:56 PM GMT
Imp123 said jonbon should  be retired back in November.....only won a quarter million since
Report FOYLESWAR February 19, 2026 4:57 PM GMT
you  write him off at your peril imo, has he deteriorated 14 -20 pound in a season ? possible but the yard has been in dire form and something may have been amiss ,yes on this seasons form he has no chance but its all about one day on the friday .
Report duffy February 19, 2026 5:14 PM GMT
So we're going to have the defending champ, FTF ad ST running then are we?
Report FOYLESWAR February 19, 2026 5:31 PM GMT
possible duffy
Report penzance February 19, 2026 5:37 PM GMT
When was the last time a horse Won the Gold Cup after falling
in the previous race?
Report FOYLESWAR February 19, 2026 5:42 PM GMT
i dont fancy it atm but as said wouldnt completely dismiss it
Report uptheirons February 19, 2026 5:48 PM GMT
The only virus the horse might have encountered is the Owner
Report impossible123 February 19, 2026 6:23 PM GMT
Don Cossack fell in the King George (jockey's fault), then won in March. The horse did have a prep prior though.
The connections of FTF only had The Ryanair as his only objective prior to the Irish Gold Cup. Even post his triumph there I still do not think JP will forego The Ryanair (a penalty kick) given the opposition in the Gold Cup plus there's still a question mark about the horse's stamina over 3m 2.25f up the Cheltenham hill.
Report differentdrum February 19, 2026 9:31 PM GMT
Inothewayurthinkin and Spillane's Tower will run, but no guarantee that Fact To File will. If he did run, I would sooner chance Inothewayurthinkin at double figures. There's nothing outstanding in the race, and if he got anywhere near last year, he would go close again.
Report brandyontherocks February 20, 2026 6:40 AM GMT
Mr Mulligan
Report penzance February 20, 2026 3:51 PM GMT
Yeh,Mr Mulligan.
For some reason I thought it might've been Looks Like Trouble.
Cheers.
Report penzance February 28, 2026 1:24 PM GMT
8/1 here now.
Report leif March 1, 2026 5:39 PM GMT
Showing more now apparently.
Application of money no doubt.
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 5:53 PM GMT
Beaten 94L in two runs and tailed off when falling on its latest.
I am surprised it isn't EvensLaugh
Report Mr Spock March 1, 2026 6:06 PM GMT
Needs booing a la Top Cees level if it wins.
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 6:09 PM GMT
They should be flogged if it does.
An utterly rancid owner
Report FOYLESWAR March 1, 2026 6:26 PM GMT
what will the explanation be if he does win ?
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 6:28 PM GMT
None will be asked
Report duffy March 1, 2026 6:28 PM GMT
What exactly are we thinking then, I need it explaining to meConfused
Report leif March 1, 2026 6:33 PM GMT
Connections have done nothing wrong.
Hoss could be a spring hoss (like many others)
Trained in mind for its big target (no mystery there)
Take the 13/2 and put it in your Lucky 15 etc.
At least you know it has been supported.
Happy daze
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 6:41 PM GMT
You know no such thing,Leifless.
What does it take to move a horse A/P on here that was trading at 25?
Report leif March 1, 2026 6:57 PM GMT
Foff ya numptie.
More usernames than RicoLaugh
It is being trained for this race ya moron.
Put yer bonce back up yer 4arse.
Report strontium March 1, 2026 7:00 PM GMT
This horse has only ever won 3 chases, two over C&D at the festival.
Report breadnbutter March 1, 2026 7:03 PM GMT
Top Cees won at chelt, deffo wasn't boos, crowd was chanting.
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 7:04 PM GMT
You have exposed yourself yet again as a moron who is unable to debate,Leifless.
Feel free to post your betLaugh
Report duffy March 1, 2026 7:04 PM GMT
So it's been run down the field so JP can get a bigger price ...is that it?
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 7:07 PM GMT
Correct,duffy.
Of course everybody is happy to Lay a JP horse to lose millionsLaugh
Report windsor knot March 1, 2026 7:09 PM GMT
don't see what the fuss is about . both trainer and owner not known to be the sort associated with laying one out . all horses run strictly on merit every time .....
Report leif March 1, 2026 7:10 PM GMT
Ironhoof and Duffy just arrived down river on the back of a biscuitLaugh
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 7:13 PM GMT
Poor old Leifless.
Thicker than a Dockers Sandwich
Report duffy March 1, 2026 7:19 PM GMT
So we're talking about the GC winner being treated by connections in much the same way as a handicap plot is prepared rather than allowing it to negotiate the trials on merit in a bid to win the biggest race in the game for a second Gold Cup, they must have regarded that tired looking fall last time as a bonus which would have surely enhanced the ruse still further!!

After careful consideration....I'm out!
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 7:24 PM GMT
Laugh
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 7:25 PM GMT
Put up your bets
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 7:26 PM GMT
Selections
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 7:30 PM GMT
I will the Brains Trust to second guess JP.
On the day only with those
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 7:31 PM GMT
Leave
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 7:34 PM GMT
Bottling again
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 7:38 PM GMT
As you don't actually bet Delbert,that is rather ironic.
I like to actually know that my horse will line up on the day
How strange of meLaugh
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 7:43 PM GMT
Only fearfull Tommy tankers hope for that
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 7:43 PM GMT
Name all the ones that should of won that didn’t run Laugh
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 7:45 PM GMT
Market watchers!  No firm faith in their own decisions Laugh
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 7:45 PM GMT
Horses are wrapped up, built up to pitch, trained to perfection!
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 7:46 PM GMT
I shall treat you like I do Aceform,Delbert.
To debate with a bullshatting,non betting cretin is pointless
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 7:46 PM GMT
Whilst you align with our PM … MR SPLINTeRS LaughLaugh
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 7:47 PM GMT
**** stammer
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 7:47 PM GMT
**** steamer
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 7:48 PM GMT
Limp wrist
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 7:48 PM GMT
Q ***r stammer
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 7:48 PM GMT
Laugh
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 7:49 PM GMT
And to think that word had a whole different meaning waaay back!
Report FOYLESWAR March 1, 2026 7:49 PM GMT
have never been afraid to put em  up  and never will be ................affordale fury 33/1 nrnb and heart wood will prob go ryanaire but i would give the gold cup a pop if he were mine , if fact or file  is going ryanaire again henry hopefully may think he cant beat him over 2.5m but may have a crack at the gold cup . longshot and prob done a few quid as have backed it on here at massive prices for about a pony .
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 7:49 PM GMT
I know and respect
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 7:51 PM GMT
Who trains it?
Report leif March 1, 2026 8:05 PM GMT
I shall treat you like I do Aceform,Delbert.
To debate with a bullshatting,non betting cretin is pointless


Says, Imhotep, Racingqueen among other usernames periodically outed as a forum troll fo over a deacde has the front to call others out.

You have no credibility ya DCLaugh

now go back and crawl back up Rico's and Mitolo's ring pices ya sycophantic b3llendLaugh
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 8:06 PM GMT
Are you on drugs,Leifless?
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 8:09 PM GMT
It has NO chance
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 8:09 PM GMT
But thank you Foyleswar for the tip
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 8:10 PM GMT
Noel Mead @ Chelts
Report leif March 1, 2026 8:11 PM GMT
No, but I'm concerened for your mental health.
You were here over a decade ago as a ridiculed troll and yet some years later you have returned to do the same.
Are you semi-senile perchance?
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 8:14 PM GMT
You have also joined the list,Leifless and mitolo was clearly correct in his sentiments
Report impossible123 March 1, 2026 8:16 PM GMT
A waste of space running in the Gold Cup. BHA needs to throw the book at connections if he somehow wins in a miracle eg jockeys unseating themselves and / or horses slipping up after jumping the last.

Absolutely NO CHANCE!
Report leif March 1, 2026 8:18 PM GMT
You have also joined the list,Leifless and mitolo was clearly correct in his sentiments

Good, now FO ya plebLaugh
Report leif March 1, 2026 8:22 PM GMT
BTW, Mitolo aka Busyfool, is a hopeless drunk that openly admnitted he tried defrauding a betting shop which would have put the entire staff in the frame as possible accomplices to the crime (and therein jeapordised their livelihoods).
If you want to be associated with such scum, and do so on a betting forum where many a betting shop staff member has contributed/subscribed then it says as much about you as it does about that scumbag.
Capiche?
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 8:26 PM GMT
LaughLaugh
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 8:32 PM GMT
He has the flags or did on his truck
Report Delashay March 1, 2026 8:33 PM GMT
At the back, painted on
Report the old nanny ;-) March 1, 2026 9:54 PM GMT
If this wins the GC the game is finnish IMO

Was like a drunk falling over a garden gate when last seen

I would like to see it win just to watch ED and the Team Squirming Grin
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 10:27 PM GMT
Squirming,Nanny?
The "Brown Nosers" will praise the Training performance and suggest JP should be sainted.
Messing about in low grade Handicaps is one thing but the sky is the limit with JP now
Report duffy March 1, 2026 11:03 PM GMT
irons,
what side of the fence are you on here, you've confused me, do you think it's been one big con or not?
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 11:08 PM GMT
I have never trusted JP,duffy but would never dream of second guessing him.
I could not back the beast with stolen money and talk of it being a Spring horse makes me chuckle.
Would I Lay it?
Not for a copper coin.
Report duffy March 1, 2026 11:31 PM GMT
The whole point of these shenanigans is by getting an advantage by way of disguising the horse's ability and obtaining a lenient handicap mark and then profitting with the money going on at an enhanced price.

In this scenario you're only getting half of that and with regards to landing a coup, you're missing the good half because the horse isn't getting an advantage against the rest of the field, all they are doing is getting a few extra points through the season and who knows if he'd get enough on to even warrant it at his level.

There's also the argument if you think he hasn't been run on his merit that he's had a substandard prep that's inhibited his chances as he'd not been put through his paces correctly on race day, this isn't the Kim Muir with two stone in hand this is a prep for a very strong Gold Cup.
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 11:37 PM GMT
I concur duffy
Report duffy March 1, 2026 11:43 PM GMT
Last year's race has not aged well either,apart from GDC and Banbridge in the KG imparting any semblance of respectability on the form of the race since, there's barely been a place effort between the rest of them.

It would be fanciful in the extreme to think they had a horse with so much in hand they could afford to mess about with it in this way.
Report uptheirons March 1, 2026 11:51 PM GMT
We shall see on the day but I certainly will lose if it wins the GC
Report clouded leopard March 2, 2026 12:01 AM GMT
.
Report Delashay March 2, 2026 10:15 AM GMT
FOYLESWAR • March 1, 2026 7:49 PM GMT
have never been afraid to put em  up  and never will be ................affordale fury 33/1 nrnb and heart wood will prob go ryanaire but i would give the gold cup a pop if he were mine , if fact or file  is going ryanaire again henry hopefully may think he cant beat him over 2.5m but may have a crack at the gold cup . longshot and prob done a few quid as have backed it on here at massive prices for about a pony

Good luck, 33’s is still decent, I’ll probably regret given your record with long shots discounting because of the trainer Blush
Report Jumper45 March 2, 2026 10:46 AM GMT
A lot to like about Affordale Fury. Wouldn't be the first time FOYLESWAR's landed on one. Not the second time either.

I guess all the UK based commentary and preview nights are focusing on the two GB horses at the top of the market and 'the will he won't he run' debate over Ftf - now being surpassed about the Inothewayurthinkin coming back in price conversations. What's not to like about the Savills winner trained by the old man and distinctly unfashionable Noel Meade. Cliche time again, but if he was trained by Mullins or Elliott or even De Bromhead, he wouldn't be that price. Another exercise in value?
Report Angela Rebecchi March 2, 2026 11:10 AM GMT
It's so lightly campaigned. It's not out of the question that they know they can get it primed for Cheltenham whilst running like a dog throughout the season and thus lump on a huge bet at double digits knowing it should be favourite.
Report uptheirons March 2, 2026 12:05 PM GMT
How do you lump on a big sum at double digits,Angela?
Answers on a post card
Report formoftheace March 2, 2026 12:10 PM GMT
uptheirons 01 Mar 26 23:51 
We shall see on the day but I certainly will lose if it wins the GC

Please let it win.
Report FOYLESWAR March 2, 2026 12:28 PM GMT
not saying it will win, who knows its a horserace and anything can happen and often does its just price to chance for me . before the irish gold cup affordale fury was trading around 10/1 iirc after winning the savills with a few gold cup winners behind  and good national winner in 2nd a pulled muscle reported so not hard to forgive that run imo has room for a bit more improvement course form 2nd in an albert bartlett on the savills form and in the right age bracket  he is right up there in with a shout and a progressive profile 33s nrnb looks fairimo.
Report Delashay March 2, 2026 12:45 PM GMT
formoftheace • March 2, 2026 12:10 PM GMT
uptheirons 01 Mar 26 23:51
We shall see on the day but I certainly will lose if it wins the GC

Please let it win.

LaughLaughLaugh
Report Delashay March 2, 2026 12:50 PM GMT
True Jumer & Fair dues Foyles I looked and it’s rating isn’t that low, decent form figures before the P last time, at those odds worth a poke with questions about many others.

Anyone know the stat for horses who have last run in the King George then turning up at Chelts without a run in between?

It’s a 77 day lay off for two at the top of the market.

I haven’t watched much of the NH this year but like that the festival is just around the corner, means the flat will be back soon and better weather! Grin
Report slickster March 2, 2026 1:16 PM GMT
Horse should not be allowed to participate. That will stop all this nonsense.
Report uptheirons March 2, 2026 1:31 PM GMT
The Sweaty Two Bobber wishing a result has hardly worked in the pat.
It does show what a mean spirited  cretin he is
Report Angela Rebecchi March 2, 2026 2:14 PM GMT

Mar 2, 2026 -- 12:05PM, uptheirons wrote:


How do you lump on a big sum at double digits,Angela?Answers on a post card


Hard to tell it's price on the day. But Gold Cup markets usually have some seriously high liquidity.

I'm not saying this is what they've done. Just playing devils advocate.

If I owned it and thought the trainer could have it spot on for the big day and run like a dog and I could get 20k on 8-10/1 on the day instead of 2/1 then why not? Owners and trainers don't care about punters and landing a touch is part of the magic for many of them.

Report Angela Rebecchi March 2, 2026 2:16 PM GMT

Mar 2, 2026 -- 12:28PM, FOYLESWAR wrote:


not saying it will win, who knows its a horserace and anything can happen and often does its just price to chance for me . before the irish gold cup affordale fury was trading around 10/1 iirc after winning the savills with a few gold cup winners behind

Report Angela Rebecchi March 2, 2026 2:16 PM GMT
Just lump on Gaelic Warrior Foyles !
Report uptheirons March 2, 2026 2:23 PM GMT
Have you ever tried to get £20K on at 10/1,Angela Laugh
Report Angela Rebecchi March 2, 2026 2:25 PM GMT
I've had 5 figures on Gold Cup horses at double digits before yeah. It didn't go to plan though Laugh
Report FOYLESWAR March 2, 2026 2:45 PM GMT
at big prices on here you can get enough on ante post in dribs and drabs ,when i say enough its  usually enough for me .
Report Angela Rebecchi March 4, 2026 5:32 PM GMT
17/19 16/16 13/15 last 3 runs Let's Go Mans. Backed 42 into 6s, wins. Carrots have arrived/handbrakes off.
Report Delashay March 7, 2026 4:16 PM GMT
Delashay • March 2, 2026 12:50 PM GMT

Anyone know the stat for horses who have last run in the King George then turning up at Chelts without a run in between?

It’s a 77 day lay off for two at the top of the market.


Last Run  11/12 winners had their last run within the last 80 days, 12/12 winners had their last run 33 days or longer ago

Previous Chase Form – 10/12 winners had at least 7 previous chase runs, 12/12 had at least 2 previous chase wins, 10/12 had at least 3 previous chase wins

From the stats don’t lie
Report Delashay March 7, 2026 4:20 PM GMT
Last years winner hah only had two chase wins going into the Gold Cup
Report wondersobright March 7, 2026 4:22 PM GMT
since 2012 its 55/173 didn't run in previous 60 days
6 winners which didn't beat win market expectation
however 19 places which did beat pl market expectation

...generally I prefer jango baie prep to for example haiti couleurs
Report wondersobright March 7, 2026 4:24 PM GMT
didn't run within 90 days I can only find 8 horses since 2012
1 winner & a further 2 places
Report Delashay March 7, 2026 4:26 PM GMT
He just got in on this stat - 11/12 had at least 2 wins over hurdles

Both JB and TJM both have 2 hurdle wins

TJM  4 chases

JB 5 chases

GW 12 chases

Are the top two battle hardened enough?
Report Delashay March 7, 2026 4:26 PM GMT
Cheers Wonders
Report impossible123 March 7, 2026 7:24 PM GMT
If this monster is 7/1 or less I'll place (3)-lay the beast. To me not a blinking chance unless in a manipulation by associates.
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