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Dear Punters,
All ratings, regardless of where they come from, can be used in many different ways.
Some people use them mechanically against weights, simply deducting kilos to reach a final number. Others use them more casually, sometimes even in an “eenie-meenie” fashion. In many cases, Ayeye ratings are/can of course read only through the comments attached to them.
That is all valid.
The Ayeye approach is different.
Here, ratings are not treated as a tip or a final answer. They are treated as a structured, repeatable reference point. Their real power comes from using them to build a pricing market and then observing how the real betting market behaves around that price.
This turns ratings into a market analysis tool rather than a selection tool.
Time does not allow rating and pricing every horse in every race for this discussion. Perhaps that will come when Mikey has more time. In the meantime, I have calculated prices for Geelong and Randwick using only the ratings already disclosed in the newsletters sent yesterday.
This is not meant to be a finished product. It is an illustration.
It is designed to give an initial understanding of the mechanics and to provide a framework to think from today onward.
Frankly speaking, for our broader work we use a slightly more varied and refined approach, but for now I am happy to hang our hat on these figures for the purpose of demonstration and later review. They are strong enough to show how a ratings market can be built and how behaviour around that market can be read.
Attached are two complementary memos that explain this thinking in more depth. Together, they show one of the more professional ways to use ratings:
1. by compiling fair prices and then analysing the market through the lenses of
2. market alignment, market rejection, and market compression.
I have also attached prices calculated from these ratings.
The edge is not simply “do I like this price”.
It is found in how price behaves around the rating.
I hope you find this approach, at the very least, interesting, and for some of you, a useful upgrade in how you think about ratings and markets.
Best as always,
Henry
All ratings, regardless of where they come from, can be used in many different ways.
Some people use them mechanically against weights, simply deducting kilos to reach a final number. Others use them more casually, sometimes even in an “eenie-meenie” fashion. In many cases, Ayeye ratings are/can of course read only through the comments attached to them.
That is all valid.
The Ayeye approach is different.
Here, ratings are not treated as a tip or a final answer. They are treated as a structured, repeatable reference point. Their real power comes from using them to build a pricing market and then observing how the real betting market behaves around that price.
This turns ratings into a market analysis tool rather than a selection tool.
Time does not allow rating and pricing every horse in every race for this discussion. Perhaps that will come when Mikey has more time. In the meantime, I have calculated prices for Geelong and Randwick using only the ratings already disclosed in the newsletters sent yesterday.
This is not meant to be a finished product. It is an illustration.
It is designed to give an initial understanding of the mechanics and to provide a framework to think from today onward.
Frankly speaking, for our broader work we use a slightly more varied and refined approach, but for now I am happy to hang our hat on these figures for the purpose of demonstration and later review. They are strong enough to show how a ratings market can be built and how behaviour around that market can be read.
Attached are two complementary memos that explain this thinking in more depth. Together, they show one of the more professional ways to use ratings:
1. by compiling fair prices and then analysing the market through the lenses of
2. market alignment, market rejection, and market compression.
I have also attached prices calculated from these ratings.
The edge is not simply “do I like this price”.
It is found in how price behaves around the rating.
I hope you find this approach, at the very least, interesting, and for some of you, a useful upgrade in how you think about ratings and markets.
Best as always,
Henry
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