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Predominantly focused on the Flat, though there may be the odd jumps pick thrown in, particularly in juvenile hurdles where Flat horses are switching codes.
Prediction:
The thread will be a slow burner, with plenty of selections from left field or on the speculative side, with a low strike rate in terms of winners and long losing runs are a possibility.
The odds quoted will be what's on oddschecker with at least one of the main firms at the time of posting, usually late morning / early afternoon.
As I will need all the help I can get (and I'm not jesting after last year!), I am going to claim B.O.G where applicable but obviously will keep a close eye on that with some firms now withdrawing the offer.
DISCLAIMER: I'm just a guy putting up a couple or so selections most days at working men's prices with a bit of reasoning, so if the thread fails, well, what can I say other than it's a tough old game!
Prediction:
The thread will be a slow burner, with plenty of selections from left field or on the speculative side, with a low strike rate in terms of winners and long losing runs are a possibility.
The odds quoted will be what's on oddschecker with at least one of the main firms at the time of posting, usually late morning / early afternoon.
As I will need all the help I can get (and I'm not jesting after last year!), I am going to claim B.O.G where applicable but obviously will keep a close eye on that with some firms now withdrawing the offer.
DISCLAIMER: I'm just a guy putting up a couple or so selections most days at working men's prices with a bit of reasoning, so if the thread fails, well, what can I say other than it's a tough old game!
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Lake Muritz
I was hoping the ground might ease more than it has at York following the overnight rain but I'm still going to take a chance on Lake Muritz. It was on good to soft at Beverley (5f) in June that she won and pulled clear with one other, and that rival appeared to show improved form when she got the chance to race on easy ground again by finishing a keeping-on 5th of 11 in a 5f York Listed race against mainly male opposition, following which her mark was raised to 87. Lake Muritz is currently rated 75, having been eased 3lb from her initial mark.
Lake Muritz didn't build on that effort when sent to York twice (6f Listed then 5f class 3 novice) but on quicker ground, following which she was then absent for four months. She returned to action at Pontefract (6f, good) with a satisfactory effort in a nursery when although finishing last of the five runners, she didn't shape too badly considering the run might have been needed and would have finished a bit closer with a clearer run at a crucial stage.
It may be she ideally needs a stiffer test but a chance is taken at the odds now she has the chance to race on (hopefully) easier ground again.
I was hoping the ground might ease more than it has at York following the overnight rain but I'm still going to take a chance on Lake Muritz. It was on good to soft at Beverley (5f) in June that she won and pulled clear with one other, and that rival appeared to show improved form when she got the chance to race on easy ground again by finishing a keeping-on 5th of 11 in a 5f York Listed race against mainly male opposition, following which her mark was raised to 87. Lake Muritz is currently rated 75, having been eased 3lb from her initial mark.
Lake Muritz didn't build on that effort when sent to York twice (6f Listed then 5f class 3 novice) but on quicker ground, following which she was then absent for four months. She returned to action at Pontefract (6f, good) with a satisfactory effort in a nursery when although finishing last of the five runners, she didn't shape too badly considering the run might have been needed and would have finished a bit closer with a clearer run at a crucial stage.
It may be she ideally needs a stiffer test but a chance is taken at the odds now she has the chance to race on (hopefully) easier ground again.
Booyea
Booyea appears to have gone off the boil the last twice over 7f, perhaps the positive effect the blinkers were having worn off and they are now removed. He hasn't won since the summer of 2024 but he posted some good efforts in defeat this summer at the Curragh in premier handicaps over a mile, finishing second to the subsequent Cambridgeshire winner Pierre Royal in June when the blinkers were first applied, and again when just behind that rival in August when they finished third and fourth, albeit unable to match for the first two who have both subsequently been Listed-placed.
Booyea has a belated first try on the all-weather this evening, but as he can be a strong-travelling sort when in form he could take to it, and the return to a mile looks a positive, so while there has to be a question mark over whether he will repeat his summer Curragh form here, he's looking fairly handicapped if he can.
Booyea appears to have gone off the boil the last twice over 7f, perhaps the positive effect the blinkers were having worn off and they are now removed. He hasn't won since the summer of 2024 but he posted some good efforts in defeat this summer at the Curragh in premier handicaps over a mile, finishing second to the subsequent Cambridgeshire winner Pierre Royal in June when the blinkers were first applied, and again when just behind that rival in August when they finished third and fourth, albeit unable to match for the first two who have both subsequently been Listed-placed.
Booyea has a belated first try on the all-weather this evening, but as he can be a strong-travelling sort when in form he could take to it, and the return to a mile looks a positive, so while there has to be a question mark over whether he will repeat his summer Curragh form here, he's looking fairly handicapped if he can.
Colugo
Colugo is a risky proposition as she can pull her chance away, however, her record at this track reads 2434463339 and includes finishing third off higher marks on both attempts last AW season over tonight's trip of 10.5f. She faded out of it over the mile trip here last time having done too much too soon, but hopefully the hood being reapplied can help her setter better this evening.
Colugo is a risky proposition as she can pull her chance away, however, her record at this track reads 2434463339 and includes finishing third off higher marks on both attempts last AW season over tonight's trip of 10.5f. She faded out of it over the mile trip here last time having done too much too soon, but hopefully the hood being reapplied can help her setter better this evening.
gl …
Yes Virgin, she was only beaten a length by a winner, but not even in the first four.
Colugo was her usual headstrong self, soon circling the field to get to the front, but then virtually stopped to nothing up the home straight.
As for Booyea:
The Raceday Stewards granted a request from Thomas Gibney, trainer of Booyea, for an additional ten minutes to present his charge for identification by an IHRB Official in accordance with the provisions of Rule 90(i). Subsequently, Booyea failed to present on time and was withdrawn by Order of the Raceday Stewards.
2026 Running P/L: +19.44 pts
Colugo was her usual headstrong self, soon circling the field to get to the front, but then virtually stopped to nothing up the home straight.
As for Booyea:
The Raceday Stewards granted a request from Thomas Gibney, trainer of Booyea, for an additional ten minutes to present his charge for identification by an IHRB Official in accordance with the provisions of Rule 90(i). Subsequently, Booyea failed to present on time and was withdrawn by Order of the Raceday Stewards.
2026 Running P/L: +19.44 pts
Wild Bessie, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 3.05 Naas (4 PLACES)
Balmacara, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 4.42 Goodwood (4 PLACES)
Apercu, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 5.25 Naas (4 PLACES)
Balmacara, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 4.42 Goodwood (4 PLACES)
Apercu, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 5.25 Naas (4 PLACES)
Wild Bessie
Wild Bessie was a selection last time when I wrote:
A speculative pick on Wild Bessie, who faces a tough task on official ratings in this Group 3 contest. She's of a little interest based on her reappearance C&D win on soft-heavy ground back in the spring when she defeated a 92-rated Ballydoyle filly, who had the benefit of a reappearance run behind her, and who subsequently comfortably won a Limerick maiden, before going on to finish runner-up in a Group 3 at Leopardstown, which has seen her rating rise to 102. The third also subsequently won a Limerick maiden, then finished runner-up in a handicap at the Galway festival (to one who is now rated 19lb higher after finishing second in Listed / Group 3 company), before winning a Navan handicap off a mark of 83.
The selection's effort in victory can probably be marked up given she had contested the pace into a headwind. She hasn't been up to Group 3 / Listed company in two starts since at the Curragh / Killarney over a mile, but each time on good ground, and interesting to see how she fares here on ground currently described as yielding, yielding to soft in places.
================================================
If Wild Bessie does need soft / heavy ground to produce her best form then doubt the ground last time at Cork was ideal and won't want the ground to dry out too much here, but she's given another chance on ground that should be easier than anything she has encountered since her Cork win. She still does have her stamina for a mile to prove but being out of a Galileo mare would be encouraging in that regard, and a tongue-tie is applied for the first time.
Wild Bessie was a selection last time when I wrote:
A speculative pick on Wild Bessie, who faces a tough task on official ratings in this Group 3 contest. She's of a little interest based on her reappearance C&D win on soft-heavy ground back in the spring when she defeated a 92-rated Ballydoyle filly, who had the benefit of a reappearance run behind her, and who subsequently comfortably won a Limerick maiden, before going on to finish runner-up in a Group 3 at Leopardstown, which has seen her rating rise to 102. The third also subsequently won a Limerick maiden, then finished runner-up in a handicap at the Galway festival (to one who is now rated 19lb higher after finishing second in Listed / Group 3 company), before winning a Navan handicap off a mark of 83.
The selection's effort in victory can probably be marked up given she had contested the pace into a headwind. She hasn't been up to Group 3 / Listed company in two starts since at the Curragh / Killarney over a mile, but each time on good ground, and interesting to see how she fares here on ground currently described as yielding, yielding to soft in places.
================================================
If Wild Bessie does need soft / heavy ground to produce her best form then doubt the ground last time at Cork was ideal and won't want the ground to dry out too much here, but she's given another chance on ground that should be easier than anything she has encountered since her Cork win. She still does have her stamina for a mile to prove but being out of a Galileo mare would be encouraging in that regard, and a tongue-tie is applied for the first time.
Balmacara
Balmacara hasn't been up to Group 3 / Listed company the last twice following a two-month break, but he's of a little interest here at a big price back into handicap company having not been disgraced the last time he contested a handicap at Sandown (1m, g-f) in June, when in that valuable class 2 contest, from the widest stall, he went with plenty of enthusiam on the front-end until giving way over a furlong out on ground that was likely quick enough for him.
He might not want the ground to dry out too much and may have to work to get across from his draw in 9, but a chance is taken with him being off a 5lb lower mark back down in class.
Balmacara hasn't been up to Group 3 / Listed company the last twice following a two-month break, but he's of a little interest here at a big price back into handicap company having not been disgraced the last time he contested a handicap at Sandown (1m, g-f) in June, when in that valuable class 2 contest, from the widest stall, he went with plenty of enthusiam on the front-end until giving way over a furlong out on ground that was likely quick enough for him.
He might not want the ground to dry out too much and may have to work to get across from his draw in 9, but a chance is taken with him being off a 5lb lower mark back down in class.
Apercu
Apercu was a selection previously on the thread on the back of what looked a creditable effort on soft ground in the Ulster Oaks Fillies Handicap at Down Royal (10.5f) in June, when although she was beaten 6.5L by the winner Chica Guerrera, that filly subsequently finished second of 18 off a 12lb higher mark in a fillies' premier handicap at Leopardstown on Irish Champion Stakes day (and runs today in the 12f f&m Listed race on the card).
Apercu does have comparable form on better ground so it's hard to say that the surface has been the issue in three disappointing efforts since, but I'm going to give her another chance back on easier ground, running off a mark 5lb lower than for that Down Royal effort, with Reese Holohan taking off a further 5lb.
Apercu was a selection previously on the thread on the back of what looked a creditable effort on soft ground in the Ulster Oaks Fillies Handicap at Down Royal (10.5f) in June, when although she was beaten 6.5L by the winner Chica Guerrera, that filly subsequently finished second of 18 off a 12lb higher mark in a fillies' premier handicap at Leopardstown on Irish Champion Stakes day (and runs today in the 12f f&m Listed race on the card).
Apercu does have comparable form on better ground so it's hard to say that the surface has been the issue in three disappointing efforts since, but I'm going to give her another chance back on easier ground, running off a mark 5lb lower than for that Down Royal effort, with Reese Holohan taking off a further 5lb.
Balmacara briefly raised my hopes when he took a length or two out of the field over a furlong out on ground that ought to have suited but, rather disappointingly, it didn't long for him to be swamped.
2026 Running P/L: +13.44 pts
2026 Running P/L: +13.44 pts
Carmel Valley
Carmel Valley posted a couple of decent efforts in defeat at Ayr in July over one mile / 7f when encountering a decent surface, and although there were just the five runners in the latter contest, she set a decent pace and kept on well once headed to finish a length behind one who was completing a C&D hat-trick having plummeted in the weights.
She hasn't been in the same form in three starts since but two of the runs over 7f at Ayr came on easier ground, and in between at Musselburgh (7f, good) she found 0-80 company too strong for her.
This is her all-weather debut so has to prove herself on Tapeta, she's eligible for weaker races, and a slight concern that 7f on a stiff track may suit better than the mile this evening, but she's off a mark 5lb lower than for the second of those two good Ayr efforts, and being a Raven's Pass / Dansili cross offers hope that she can win on synthetics.
Carmel Valley posted a couple of decent efforts in defeat at Ayr in July over one mile / 7f when encountering a decent surface, and although there were just the five runners in the latter contest, she set a decent pace and kept on well once headed to finish a length behind one who was completing a C&D hat-trick having plummeted in the weights.
She hasn't been in the same form in three starts since but two of the runs over 7f at Ayr came on easier ground, and in between at Musselburgh (7f, good) she found 0-80 company too strong for her.
This is her all-weather debut so has to prove herself on Tapeta, she's eligible for weaker races, and a slight concern that 7f on a stiff track may suit better than the mile this evening, but she's off a mark 5lb lower than for the second of those two good Ayr efforts, and being a Raven's Pass / Dansili cross offers hope that she can win on synthetics.
WD George.
A winner never quits and a quitter never wins
A winner never quits and a quitter never wins
Cheers all. A much-needed winner for the thread following a poor run of form.
2026 Running P/L: +39.84 pts
2026 Running P/L: +39.84 pts
Cheers toffee man
High Hazard, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 2.23 Pontefract (4 PLACES)
Changeofmind, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 4.55 Pontefract
Dublin Bay, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.15 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES)
High Hazard, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 2.23 Pontefract (4 PLACES)
Changeofmind, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 4.55 Pontefract
Dublin Bay, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 5.15 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES)
High Hazard
High Hazard has shaped on more than one occasion as though a stiff test at a mile may suit, notably twice at Beverley over 7.5f in the summer on his second and third starts when finishing behind useful colts from the Karl Burke yard.
He seemingly hasn't gone on since but he faced stiff tasks on his next two starts over 7f in class 2 nurseries at Glorious Goodwood and the York Ebor festival. He then came in for market support at Haydock over 7f in September when down in grade to a class 5 nursery on soft ground, when putting in his best work late on to finish 5th of 10 having been hampered at the start. Heavy ground at Chester (7f) was too much for him two starts back, but he shaped better last time when finishing 4th at Southwell, when once again shaping as though in need of a stiffer test.
It's possible he may ideally want a quicker surface but the Haydock run showed that he can act on soft ground, and he's now 9lb below his initial mark, so interesting to see how he fares now over what may be a more suitable test, provided he handles the ground.
High Hazard has shaped on more than one occasion as though a stiff test at a mile may suit, notably twice at Beverley over 7.5f in the summer on his second and third starts when finishing behind useful colts from the Karl Burke yard.
He seemingly hasn't gone on since but he faced stiff tasks on his next two starts over 7f in class 2 nurseries at Glorious Goodwood and the York Ebor festival. He then came in for market support at Haydock over 7f in September when down in grade to a class 5 nursery on soft ground, when putting in his best work late on to finish 5th of 10 having been hampered at the start. Heavy ground at Chester (7f) was too much for him two starts back, but he shaped better last time when finishing 4th at Southwell, when once again shaping as though in need of a stiffer test.
It's possible he may ideally want a quicker surface but the Haydock run showed that he can act on soft ground, and he's now 9lb below his initial mark, so interesting to see how he fares now over what may be a more suitable test, provided he handles the ground.
Changeofmind
Changeofmind is effectively 8lb higher than for his C&D win on good to soft in May as he's 5lb higher today and Zak Wheatley no longer has his 3lb claim, but that was just his second try here having also run well over C&D last autumn on his final start of 2025. He showed he can still be competitive off higher marks when just being denied at Newcastle in August, before finishing a respectable third off a 2lb higher mark than today's at Haydock (5f, heavy) last month.
His last two runs have been disappointing but the ground might not have been ideal at the St Leger meeting, and last time at Hamilton on soft ground that ought to have suited, he raced towards the stands' side on a day when that might not have been ideal. The recent rain is a positive for his chance and hopefully he can give another good account at this course.
Changeofmind is effectively 8lb higher than for his C&D win on good to soft in May as he's 5lb higher today and Zak Wheatley no longer has his 3lb claim, but that was just his second try here having also run well over C&D last autumn on his final start of 2025. He showed he can still be competitive off higher marks when just being denied at Newcastle in August, before finishing a respectable third off a 2lb higher mark than today's at Haydock (5f, heavy) last month.
His last two runs have been disappointing but the ground might not have been ideal at the St Leger meeting, and last time at Hamilton on soft ground that ought to have suited, he raced towards the stands' side on a day when that might not have been ideal. The recent rain is a positive for his chance and hopefully he can give another good account at this course.
Dublin Bay
Dublin Bay made it 2-2 over C&D in May when bolting up by 7L, all the remarkable given he'd been about 8-wide into the first turn from a tricky draw, and the 10lb rise he got for that looked fully justified.
He was then absent for three months and ran okay on his return to action at both Southwell and then Chester, but failed to make it 3-3 here last time when dropping away to finish last of the fourteen runners, however, that race didn't pan out well for him from a wide draw. The selection has a better draw this time and has been eased a pound in the ratings.
Dublin Bay made it 2-2 over C&D in May when bolting up by 7L, all the remarkable given he'd been about 8-wide into the first turn from a tricky draw, and the 10lb rise he got for that looked fully justified.
He was then absent for three months and ran okay on his return to action at both Southwell and then Chester, but failed to make it 3-3 here last time when dropping away to finish last of the fourteen runners, however, that race didn't pan out well for him from a wide draw. The selection has a better draw this time and has been eased a pound in the ratings.
Ta Virgin.
A poor day otherwise...
I was worried about the ground for High Hazard, especially after it was changed to heavy after race 1, and he was unable to hold his position from some way out.
The ground was fine for Changeofmind but being the slowest away wasn't, and he could only keep on into a never threatening fifth.
2026 Running P/L: +38.04 pts
A poor day otherwise...
I was worried about the ground for High Hazard, especially after it was changed to heavy after race 1, and he was unable to hold his position from some way out.
The ground was fine for Changeofmind but being the slowest away wasn't, and he could only keep on into a never threatening fifth.
2026 Running P/L: +38.04 pts
Princess Honey Bee, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 6.30 Newcastle (4 PLACES)
Princess Honey Bee
Princess Honey Bee was a selection last time at Yarmouth over 11.5f when I wrote:
Princess Honey Bee is a risky one because there is a stamina question to answer upped 3.5f in trip to 11.5f, however, she's of interest from a handicapping perspective now she contests her first handicap based on a run at Ripon (one mile, g-f) fillies' novice in July when she finished runner-up to a Karl Burke-trained odds-on debutante, who has since followed up under a penalty on the all-weather against a Crisford-trained colt, who himself has since won a maiden race, albeit at very short odds.
Back in third place at Ripon was a Haggas-trained filly rated 75, who finished nearly four lengths behind Princess Honey Bee, who at that point was rated 67, so the mark of the selection could have taken a hit, but she only went up 2lb, while the Haggas-trained filly was dropped 5lb, and she won a handicap on her next start off that revised mark.
The selection failed to justify odds-on favouritism at Windsor (one-mile, g-f) last month but not sure that race panned out well for her, and she has since shed her maiden tag in a fillies' novice contest at Lingfield (AW), following which her mark was nudged up to 70.
Regarding stamina, her dam, a half-sister to a 10f winner, won a 7.5f soft ground novice at Beverley as a juvenile, but was untried over further having not been raced as a older horse.
===================================
Princess Honey Bee didn't settle in that 0-80 contest over the longer trip at Yarmouth and could make no impression. She's back in trip to a mile this evening and down in grade to 0-70 company. Her mark of 69 looks a workable one based on the pick of her form in novice races, so hopefully can give a good account on just her second handicap start if as effective on Tapeta.
Princess Honey Bee was a selection last time at Yarmouth over 11.5f when I wrote:
Princess Honey Bee is a risky one because there is a stamina question to answer upped 3.5f in trip to 11.5f, however, she's of interest from a handicapping perspective now she contests her first handicap based on a run at Ripon (one mile, g-f) fillies' novice in July when she finished runner-up to a Karl Burke-trained odds-on debutante, who has since followed up under a penalty on the all-weather against a Crisford-trained colt, who himself has since won a maiden race, albeit at very short odds.
Back in third place at Ripon was a Haggas-trained filly rated 75, who finished nearly four lengths behind Princess Honey Bee, who at that point was rated 67, so the mark of the selection could have taken a hit, but she only went up 2lb, while the Haggas-trained filly was dropped 5lb, and she won a handicap on her next start off that revised mark.
The selection failed to justify odds-on favouritism at Windsor (one-mile, g-f) last month but not sure that race panned out well for her, and she has since shed her maiden tag in a fillies' novice contest at Lingfield (AW), following which her mark was nudged up to 70.
Regarding stamina, her dam, a half-sister to a 10f winner, won a 7.5f soft ground novice at Beverley as a juvenile, but was untried over further having not been raced as a older horse.
===================================
Princess Honey Bee didn't settle in that 0-80 contest over the longer trip at Yarmouth and could make no impression. She's back in trip to a mile this evening and down in grade to 0-70 company. Her mark of 69 looks a workable one based on the pick of her form in novice races, so hopefully can give a good account on just her second handicap start if as effective on Tapeta.
2026 Running P/L: +36.04 pts
Chestnut Palace, 1pt EW @ 7-1, 5.04 Navan (6 PLACES)
Whiskey Bent, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 5.20 Newmarket (5 PLACES)
Chestnut Palace, 1pt EW @ 7-1, 5.04 Navan (6 PLACES)
Whiskey Bent, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 5.20 Newmarket (5 PLACES)
Chestnut Palace
Chestnut Palace was a selection last time when finishing third at Killarney (11f, soft), when I wrote:
Chestnut Palace was having only her second try at 12f at Limerick (g-y) in June, and first in cheekieces, when she seemed to do well to finish fourth of the 16 runners having endured a tough trip from a wide draw, albeit beaten 6L. The third has won twice subsequently, while the first two have run well in defeat on occasions to make the frame.
The selection was absent for over three months after, returning to action over a mile at Punchestown (good) last month, where she ran okay to finish 5th of 14 runners in first-time blinkers, which are retained today.
She's off a mark 3lb lower than for that penultimate effort with Nicola Burns taking off a further 5lb, and the return to further looks a positive.
=========================================
Just to corect an error in that write-up, Nicola Burns claimed 2lb in that apprentice handicap, not 5lb. The selection is a further 2lb lower today with Ben Coen taking over in the plate, and she's selected again with this step up in trip to 14f looking worth a try.
Chestnut Palace was a selection last time when finishing third at Killarney (11f, soft), when I wrote:
Chestnut Palace was having only her second try at 12f at Limerick (g-y) in June, and first in cheekieces, when she seemed to do well to finish fourth of the 16 runners having endured a tough trip from a wide draw, albeit beaten 6L. The third has won twice subsequently, while the first two have run well in defeat on occasions to make the frame.
The selection was absent for over three months after, returning to action over a mile at Punchestown (good) last month, where she ran okay to finish 5th of 14 runners in first-time blinkers, which are retained today.
She's off a mark 3lb lower than for that penultimate effort with Nicola Burns taking off a further 5lb, and the return to further looks a positive.
=========================================
Just to corect an error in that write-up, Nicola Burns claimed 2lb in that apprentice handicap, not 5lb. The selection is a further 2lb lower today with Ben Coen taking over in the plate, and she's selected again with this step up in trip to 14f looking worth a try.
Whiskey Bent
Whiskey Bent is of a little interest at the prices based on his penultimate run at Sandown (one mile, g-s), form that ties him in closely with the current favourite Cliniican, whom he meets on 2lb better terms having finished about a length behind when they finished second and fourth in what admittedly was a bunch finish between five rivals, so the form may not be the most reliable.
They're both back in trip to 7f here and Clinician is understandably the more favoured by the market having not had the clearest of runs from off the pace before being narrowly denied, but the selection, who had won over 7f (heavy) in France on his second start, travelled well, if a little too keenly through the contest at Sandown so should be fine back in trip.
He's since finished well held in a Listed race in Germany (one mile, good), but this looks more realistic and he won't mind if there is any further rain.
Whiskey Bent is of a little interest at the prices based on his penultimate run at Sandown (one mile, g-s), form that ties him in closely with the current favourite Cliniican, whom he meets on 2lb better terms having finished about a length behind when they finished second and fourth in what admittedly was a bunch finish between five rivals, so the form may not be the most reliable.
They're both back in trip to 7f here and Clinician is understandably the more favoured by the market having not had the clearest of runs from off the pace before being narrowly denied, but the selection, who had won over 7f (heavy) in France on his second start, travelled well, if a little too keenly through the contest at Sandown so should be fine back in trip.
He's since finished well held in a Listed race in Germany (one mile, good), but this looks more realistic and he won't mind if there is any further rain.
2026 Running P/L: +32.04 pts
Rodoya, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 5.30 Southwell (4 PLACES)
Rodoya, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 5.30 Southwell (4 PLACES)
Rodoya
Rodoya, a 12f winner in France on good to soft, has yet to make the frame in five starts since joining the Camacho yard, and her mark is down to 67 from an initial rating of 82, however, following an eight-month break there have been some encouraging signs the last twice at Newcastle (10f then 12.5f) having perhaps not had the most efficient of trips, notably last time when she raced close-up on a decent gallop in a contest that set up for the closers, before being short of room inside the final furlong and fading to to be beaten 7L into fifth.
This is a slightly higher grade, she could do with settling better than she did last time having become a bit lit up after a couple of furlongs, and has to prove her effectiveness at this track now down in trip, but a chance is taken at the prices as an improved effort may be in the offing now she has had time to acclimatise.
Rodoya, a 12f winner in France on good to soft, has yet to make the frame in five starts since joining the Camacho yard, and her mark is down to 67 from an initial rating of 82, however, following an eight-month break there have been some encouraging signs the last twice at Newcastle (10f then 12.5f) having perhaps not had the most efficient of trips, notably last time when she raced close-up on a decent gallop in a contest that set up for the closers, before being short of room inside the final furlong and fading to to be beaten 7L into fifth.
This is a slightly higher grade, she could do with settling better than she did last time having become a bit lit up after a couple of furlongs, and has to prove her effectiveness at this track now down in trip, but a chance is taken at the prices as an improved effort may be in the offing now she has had time to acclimatise.
2026 Running P/L: +30.04 pts
Lake Muritz, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 1.35 Doncaster
Lake Muritz, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 1.35 Doncaster
Lake Muritz
Lake Muritz was a selection last time at York when I wrote:
I was hoping the ground might ease more than it has at York following the overnight rain but I'm still going to take a chance on Lake Muritz. It was on good to soft at Beverley (5f) in June that she won and pulled clear with one other, and that rival appeared to show improved form when she got the chance to race on easy ground again by finishing a keeping-on 5th of 11 in a 5f York Listed race against mainly male opposition, following which her mark was raised to 87. Lake Muritz is currently rated 75, having been eased 3lb from her initial mark.
Lake Muritz didn't build on that effort when sent to York twice (6f Listed then 5f class 3 novice) but on quicker ground, following which she was then absent for four months. She returned to action at Pontefract (6f, good) with a satisfactory effort in a nursery when although finishing last of the five runners, she didn't shape too badly considering the run might have been needed and would have finished a bit closer with a clearer run at a crucial stage.
It may be she ideally needs a stiffer test but a chance is taken at the odds now she has the chance to race on (hopefully) easier ground again.
====================================================
She was only beaten a length into fifth place last time at odds of 50-1 when perhaps a more even gallop would have suited. It remains to be seen how deep she wants the ground but her two best efforts have come when encountering give in the ground. I think she should be fine at 6f given how well she saw it out over 5f at Beverley, and would have finished closer over 6f at Pontefract but for meeting a bit of trouble at a crucial stage, when the run was likely needed back from a break.
Lake Muritz was a selection last time at York when I wrote:
I was hoping the ground might ease more than it has at York following the overnight rain but I'm still going to take a chance on Lake Muritz. It was on good to soft at Beverley (5f) in June that she won and pulled clear with one other, and that rival appeared to show improved form when she got the chance to race on easy ground again by finishing a keeping-on 5th of 11 in a 5f York Listed race against mainly male opposition, following which her mark was raised to 87. Lake Muritz is currently rated 75, having been eased 3lb from her initial mark.
Lake Muritz didn't build on that effort when sent to York twice (6f Listed then 5f class 3 novice) but on quicker ground, following which she was then absent for four months. She returned to action at Pontefract (6f, good) with a satisfactory effort in a nursery when although finishing last of the five runners, she didn't shape too badly considering the run might have been needed and would have finished a bit closer with a clearer run at a crucial stage.
It may be she ideally needs a stiffer test but a chance is taken at the odds now she has the chance to race on (hopefully) easier ground again.
====================================================
She was only beaten a length into fifth place last time at odds of 50-1 when perhaps a more even gallop would have suited. It remains to be seen how deep she wants the ground but her two best efforts have come when encountering give in the ground. I think she should be fine at 6f given how well she saw it out over 5f at Beverley, and would have finished closer over 6f at Pontefract but for meeting a bit of trouble at a crucial stage, when the run was likely needed back from a break.
2026 Running P/L: +28.04 pts
Frances Ethel, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 3.25 Saint-Cloud (4 PLACES)
Frances Ethel, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 3.25 Saint-Cloud (4 PLACES)
Frances Ethel
Frances Ethel was a selection last time when I wrote:
Frances Ethel would apppear to face a stiff task upped further in class to Group 3 level having finished 4th last time at Listed level over 14f (soft) at Longchamp in a contest won by one rated 9lb lower than herself, however, the ground then might not have been ideal, and this mare, who was formerly trained in South Africa, may still have some upside for her current yard based on her run last month in a Shergar Cup handicap (12f, g-f), when given how that race panned out she seemed to do well to hang in there for fourth place. The winner, Asgard's Captain, has since won a valuable Listed race in Sweden.
The Ascot run was only her second try over 12f, having won over the distance the one time she ran over it in her home country, and it's easy to see why based on that evidence connections thought she would be worth a go at 14f, but she's still of interest back at 12f as she may have more to come for the Haggas yard now she has had time to acclimatise.
=================================================================
Frances Ethel dropped away at Newmarket and not easy to select her again on the back of that, particularly as she has a bit to find with some of today's rivals, so I have to hope that she just had an off day or the Rowley Mile wasn't for her as she did become unbalanced around 2f out.
She's seemingly not the yard's first string with Cieren Fallon riding a stablemate, but interesting that her top yard are having another try for black type, with Mickael Barzalona booked.
Frances Ethel was a selection last time when I wrote:
Frances Ethel would apppear to face a stiff task upped further in class to Group 3 level having finished 4th last time at Listed level over 14f (soft) at Longchamp in a contest won by one rated 9lb lower than herself, however, the ground then might not have been ideal, and this mare, who was formerly trained in South Africa, may still have some upside for her current yard based on her run last month in a Shergar Cup handicap (12f, g-f), when given how that race panned out she seemed to do well to hang in there for fourth place. The winner, Asgard's Captain, has since won a valuable Listed race in Sweden.
The Ascot run was only her second try over 12f, having won over the distance the one time she ran over it in her home country, and it's easy to see why based on that evidence connections thought she would be worth a go at 14f, but she's still of interest back at 12f as she may have more to come for the Haggas yard now she has had time to acclimatise.
=================================================================
Frances Ethel dropped away at Newmarket and not easy to select her again on the back of that, particularly as she has a bit to find with some of today's rivals, so I have to hope that she just had an off day or the Rowley Mile wasn't for her as she did become unbalanced around 2f out.
She's seemingly not the yard's first string with Cieren Fallon riding a stablemate, but interesting that her top yard are having another try for black type, with Mickael Barzalona booked.
gl ....
Cheers. Yes, she gave it a good shot from the front and tried to rally when the winner went past. I don't know if we'll see her again next season as a 7YO, but may be worth a try over two miles on that evidence if they do continue with her.
2026 Running P/L: +32.04 pts
2026 Running P/L: +32.04 pts
Thanks PHS
Stepanov, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 2.18 Hereford
Lady Kameko, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 2.39 Leicester (5 PLACES)
Stepanov, 1pt EW @ 9-1, 2.18 Hereford
Lady Kameko, 1pt EW @ 22-1, 2.39 Leicester (5 PLACES)
Stepanov
A juvenile hurdle selection. It looked a decent effort from Stepanov at Hamilton (11f, good) in June on his final start for Ed Bethell, only being headed in the final strides by a more patiently-ridden rival. He was subsequently sold for 30,000 gns to be trained by Emma Lavelle, and has had a break since presumably with a juvenile hurdling campaign in mind. He would appear to have the size and stamina for this switch of code.
A juvenile hurdle selection. It looked a decent effort from Stepanov at Hamilton (11f, good) in June on his final start for Ed Bethell, only being headed in the final strides by a more patiently-ridden rival. He was subsequently sold for 30,000 gns to be trained by Emma Lavelle, and has had a break since presumably with a juvenile hurdling campaign in mind. He would appear to have the size and stamina for this switch of code.
Lady Kameko
Lady Kameko hasn't been seen for seven months so fitness has to be taken on trust, and she wasn't in much form when running on the all-weather when last seen, but is of interest here back on soft / heavy ground being 10lb lower than when finishing second on heavy ground at Bath last autumn over a mile, the only time she has run on such going. The winner followed up off a 5lb higher mark back at Bath over 10f, again on heavy ground, to make it 5-8 at that course.
The selection runs over 10f today but the trip shouldn't be an issue as she is bred to stay at least this far.
Lady Kameko hasn't been seen for seven months so fitness has to be taken on trust, and she wasn't in much form when running on the all-weather when last seen, but is of interest here back on soft / heavy ground being 10lb lower than when finishing second on heavy ground at Bath last autumn over a mile, the only time she has run on such going. The winner followed up off a 5lb higher mark back at Bath over 10f, again on heavy ground, to make it 5-8 at that course.
The selection runs over 10f today but the trip shouldn't be an issue as she is bred to stay at least this far.
Not the best of days for more reasons than one...
Molly Valentine had been selected three times on the thread at big prices when running at Wolverhampton, but as a soft ground winner I had to consider her back on turf today, however, decided the combination of 12f and "heavy in places" might be too much given her unproven stamina, and of course she had to go and finish second at 50-1
As for the ones that were selected:
Stepanov moved onto the heels of the leaders travelling like a travelly thing but it didn't take long for him to start to struggle to hold his position, so perhaps the run was needed. He had been easy enough to back and although his price came back in towards the off, that might have been down to the market weakness of the odds-on favourite, who finished unplaced.
I was hoping the absence of Lady Kameko had been down to connections waiting for soft / heavy ground, but she finished well beaten today. As it turned out she wasn't well drawn but given she was beaten nearly 50L, I'm not going to use the draw as too much of an excuse.
2026 Running P/L: +28.04 pts
Molly Valentine had been selected three times on the thread at big prices when running at Wolverhampton, but as a soft ground winner I had to consider her back on turf today, however, decided the combination of 12f and "heavy in places" might be too much given her unproven stamina, and of course she had to go and finish second at 50-1
As for the ones that were selected:
Stepanov moved onto the heels of the leaders travelling like a travelly thing but it didn't take long for him to start to struggle to hold his position, so perhaps the run was needed. He had been easy enough to back and although his price came back in towards the off, that might have been down to the market weakness of the odds-on favourite, who finished unplaced.
I was hoping the absence of Lady Kameko had been down to connections waiting for soft / heavy ground, but she finished well beaten today. As it turned out she wasn't well drawn but given she was beaten nearly 50L, I'm not going to use the draw as too much of an excuse.
2026 Running P/L: +28.04 pts
Thomas Tallis was a selection two starts back over C&D when I wrote:
Thomas Tallis was only officially rated 38 when contesting a one-mile, 0-55 handicap last time at Southwell, but it didn't look a bad effort based on how that race panned out, with him having to use up some gas to get to the lead and eventually cross to the rail whilst not having much peace on the front-end, in a contest where the two who beat him were ridden more patiently.
His revised official rating is only 44 and he's now into a 0-60 contest, while 7lb claimer Finlay Bassett is still awaiting his first winner after 34 rides, but the selection has only had the six starts to date so hopefully he can build on that latest effort.
==========================================================
Thomas Tallis probably would have finished on that penultimate start but for finding himself behind weakeners and then clipping heels in that 0-60 contest. His finishing effort was disappointing over C&D last time in the same grade but had been caught on the outer from a wide draw.
This looks harder into 0-65 grade and from out of the handicap, and Finlay Bassett is still awaiting his first winner after 51 rides, but he was aboard two starts back when they would have fared better with a clearer passage, and he can claim his full 7lb allowance in this apprentices' hands-and-heels race, so from a better draw than last time, hopefully the selection can at least press for a place.
Thomas Tallis was only officially rated 38 when contesting a one-mile, 0-55 handicap last time at Southwell, but it didn't look a bad effort based on how that race panned out, with him having to use up some gas to get to the lead and eventually cross to the rail whilst not having much peace on the front-end, in a contest where the two who beat him were ridden more patiently.
His revised official rating is only 44 and he's now into a 0-60 contest, while 7lb claimer Finlay Bassett is still awaiting his first winner after 34 rides, but the selection has only had the six starts to date so hopefully he can build on that latest effort.
==========================================================
Thomas Tallis probably would have finished on that penultimate start but for finding himself behind weakeners and then clipping heels in that 0-60 contest. His finishing effort was disappointing over C&D last time in the same grade but had been caught on the outer from a wide draw.
This looks harder into 0-65 grade and from out of the handicap, and Finlay Bassett is still awaiting his first winner after 51 rides, but he was aboard two starts back when they would have fared better with a clearer passage, and he can claim his full 7lb allowance in this apprentices' hands-and-heels race, so from a better draw than last time, hopefully the selection can at least press for a place.
2026 Running P/L: +26.04 pts
Francophone, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 2.44 Newmarket
High Calibre, 1pt EW @ 6-1, 3.23 Newmarket
Caballo Grande, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 7.25 Southwell (4 PLACES)
Francophone, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 2.44 Newmarket
High Calibre, 1pt EW @ 6-1, 3.23 Newmarket
Caballo Grande, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 7.25 Southwell (4 PLACES)
Tbf chav, I'd probably have more chance of winning a leg of darts against Luke Littler.
When this ends chav, visit my free website @ georgesguesses.org
Francophone
Francophone has failed to win this season so far but not sure she's always had the rub of the green, and she has run well on occasions, including when finishing second to a subsequent French Group 3 winner on the July Course (12, g-f) in August. She was beaten over 10L over today's C&D last time in a Group 3, but was returning from a break in what was probably a strong race with a couple of improving 3YOs dominating, and might not have had the best track position in that well-run contest.
The selection is back down in class today but against mainly male opposition and has work to do to reverse form from last time with Pacific Mission, but can still be a frame contender at least if able to run to her best.
Francophone has failed to win this season so far but not sure she's always had the rub of the green, and she has run well on occasions, including when finishing second to a subsequent French Group 3 winner on the July Course (12, g-f) in August. She was beaten over 10L over today's C&D last time in a Group 3, but was returning from a break in what was probably a strong race with a couple of improving 3YOs dominating, and might not have had the best track position in that well-run contest.
The selection is back down in class today but against mainly male opposition and has work to do to reverse form from last time with Pacific Mission, but can still be a frame contender at least if able to run to her best.
High Calibre
It looked a creditable effort on the July course (one mile, g-f) in August when he pulled away with the winner, and although that rival couldn't quite defy a 6lb rise next time on the AW, she since would have finished closer than 6th of 15 over 7f on the Rowley Mile in the valuable sales race won by Night In Vegas but for finding finding her path blocked at a crucial stage.
High Calibre hasn't necessarily progressed in two starts since but was too keen at Beverley (8.5f, good) before running better at Bath (one mile, g-s) to finish third when just behind one of today's rivals Magical Life, who was ridden more patiently, in a race won by a George Boughey-trained handicap project who followed up under a 6lb penalty.
It's a concern that the selection may ideally want a sound surface but he remains of interest up in trip to 9f with his dam being from the family of Gold Cup winner Fame And Glory.
It looked a creditable effort on the July course (one mile, g-f) in August when he pulled away with the winner, and although that rival couldn't quite defy a 6lb rise next time on the AW, she since would have finished closer than 6th of 15 over 7f on the Rowley Mile in the valuable sales race won by Night In Vegas but for finding finding her path blocked at a crucial stage.
High Calibre hasn't necessarily progressed in two starts since but was too keen at Beverley (8.5f, good) before running better at Bath (one mile, g-s) to finish third when just behind one of today's rivals Magical Life, who was ridden more patiently, in a race won by a George Boughey-trained handicap project who followed up under a 6lb penalty.
It's a concern that the selection may ideally want a sound surface but he remains of interest up in trip to 9f with his dam being from the family of Gold Cup winner Fame And Glory.
Caballo Grande
This looks quite competitive but I'm going to take a chance at the prices on Caballo Grande, a 3YO returning from six months off having been gelded in the interim. He didn't offer much in a couple of starts on turf when last seen in the spring but is of interest back on the all-weather, being 2-2 in this sphere. He impressed both times in maiden / novice company including over C&D, and while this looks much tougher against experienced handicappers, interesting to see where his limitations lie on artificial surfaces, with running fresh from this yard not much of a concern.
This looks quite competitive but I'm going to take a chance at the prices on Caballo Grande, a 3YO returning from six months off having been gelded in the interim. He didn't offer much in a couple of starts on turf when last seen in the spring but is of interest back on the all-weather, being 2-2 in this sphere. He impressed both times in maiden / novice company including over C&D, and while this looks much tougher against experienced handicappers, interesting to see where his limitations lie on artificial surfaces, with running fresh from this yard not much of a concern.
WD, George 
you knewe!! massive plundje on Hannon hosse.nice1 :)
you knewe!! massive plundje on Hannon hosse.nice1 :)
Cheers lead on and vonclausewitz.
I was just thinking to myself, if things don't pick up soon on this thread then I'm going to resign on December 21st. No ifs or buts!
Poor from Francophone, maybe she ideally wants a sounder surface.
I was just thinking to myself, if things don't pick up soon on this thread then I'm going to resign on December 21st. No ifs or buts!
Poor from Francophone, maybe she ideally wants a sounder surface.
Cheers Virgin
No Coballo Grande with Southwell being abandoned.
2026 Running P/L: +31.24 pts
No Coballo Grande with Southwell being abandoned.
2026 Running P/L: +31.24 pts
u onne 5ive "6s" there George, currently, in da #posdtecoundte... #Halloween 
this is the level of post you can expect from one of George's minions
Indeed, vonclausewitz
Chavman, I'm giving you 50 days notice that from Dec 22nd you are banned from posting on this thread.
Chavman, I'm giving you 50 days notice that from Dec 22nd you are banned from posting on this thread.
Dadawada, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 6.00 Wolverhampton (4 PLACES)
Last Dandelion, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 6.15 Chelmsford
Renesmee, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 8.15 Chelmsford
Last Dandelion, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 6.15 Chelmsford
Renesmee, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 8.15 Chelmsford
Dadawada
Dadawada finished well beaten at Hamilton (6f) two starts back when the soft ground probably didn't suit, but either side of that at Thirsk (6f) and Redcar (5f) on good ground it's likely she would have at least challenged for a place had she been able to secure a clear passage on both occasions. The latter contest was won by Cavan Lady, with whom she has a 5lb pull.
The selection makes her all-weather debut this evening and it's a concern that a sharpish 5f around a bend might not be ideal, particularly as she can be a keen-goer and may ideally need cover, but a chance is taken at the odds with a few of the main firms offering four places, as she's left the impression that she has a bigger effort in her when things pan out more favourably.
Dadawada finished well beaten at Hamilton (6f) two starts back when the soft ground probably didn't suit, but either side of that at Thirsk (6f) and Redcar (5f) on good ground it's likely she would have at least challenged for a place had she been able to secure a clear passage on both occasions. The latter contest was won by Cavan Lady, with whom she has a 5lb pull.
The selection makes her all-weather debut this evening and it's a concern that a sharpish 5f around a bend might not be ideal, particularly as she can be a keen-goer and may ideally need cover, but a chance is taken at the odds with a few of the main firms offering four places, as she's left the impression that she has a bigger effort in her when things pan out more favourably.
Last Dandelion
This is a rise in class for Last Dandelion, but a chance is taken at a double-figure price as her effort last time at Wolverhampton (6f) probably wanted marking up considering she didn't have the easiest of trips from a wide draw, and having led turning for home, she was only headed inside the final 100 yards. It was probably fair form for the grade as the Hannon-trained winner had been shaping as though he had a bigger effort in him, the runner-up was well-backed to build on a good second the time before at Southwell, and the third (who came from some way back) had previously hinted at better to come.
The selection had a 5lb claimer on board when winning on turf at Bath two starts back on her nursery debut, and Harry Vigors is enlisted this time to take off 5lb, so from a less-difficult draw hopefully she can give a good account if as effective at this venue.
This is a rise in class for Last Dandelion, but a chance is taken at a double-figure price as her effort last time at Wolverhampton (6f) probably wanted marking up considering she didn't have the easiest of trips from a wide draw, and having led turning for home, she was only headed inside the final 100 yards. It was probably fair form for the grade as the Hannon-trained winner had been shaping as though he had a bigger effort in him, the runner-up was well-backed to build on a good second the time before at Southwell, and the third (who came from some way back) had previously hinted at better to come.
The selection had a 5lb claimer on board when winning on turf at Bath two starts back on her nursery debut, and Harry Vigors is enlisted this time to take off 5lb, so from a less-difficult draw hopefully she can give a good account if as effective at this venue.
Renesmee
Renesmee looked back in good form three starts back at Wolverhampton (9.5f) when seeming to do well to get to within half-a-length of the winner having endured a wide trip. She's been disappointing the last twice at Nottingham (where she lost a shoe) and then back at Wolverhampton (never involved after being bumped at the start), but is of a little interest back at a course where she has a record of two wins (10f and a mile) and a second (10f) from four starts, the latest win coming under tonight's jockey Darragh Keenan off a 3lb higher mark over the mile trip back in the spring.
Renesmee looked back in good form three starts back at Wolverhampton (9.5f) when seeming to do well to get to within half-a-length of the winner having endured a wide trip. She's been disappointing the last twice at Nottingham (where she lost a shoe) and then back at Wolverhampton (never involved after being bumped at the start), but is of a little interest back at a course where she has a record of two wins (10f and a mile) and a second (10f) from four starts, the latest win coming under tonight's jockey Darragh Keenan off a 3lb higher mark over the mile trip back in the spring.
Cheers all.
It couldn't have panned out much better for Dadwada, having sat nicely off the strong gallop, with the 5lb pull and Olivia Tubb's 5lb claim proving just enough to reverse last time out form with Cavan Lady.
Alas, it doesn't take long for reverse to be engaged on this thread...
Last Dandelion actually traded 1.2 in the run when leading into the final furlong, but her finishing effort was disappointing and she faded to finish 4th.
The market was cold on the chance of Renesmee considering her course record, and she put in a tame effort, for all she's eligible for weaker races.
2026 Running P/L: +66.84 pts
It couldn't have panned out much better for Dadwada, having sat nicely off the strong gallop, with the 5lb pull and Olivia Tubb's 5lb claim proving just enough to reverse last time out form with Cavan Lady.
Alas, it doesn't take long for reverse to be engaged on this thread...
Last Dandelion actually traded 1.2 in the run when leading into the final furlong, but her finishing effort was disappointing and she faded to finish 4th.
The market was cold on the chance of Renesmee considering her course record, and she put in a tame effort, for all she's eligible for weaker races.
2026 Running P/L: +66.84 pts
Well done on that cracking winner GB! 
I felt your pain on this one!
Last Dandelion actually traded 1.2 in the run when leading into the final furlong, but her finishing effort was disappointing and she faded to finish 4th.
I felt your pain on this one!
Last Dandelion actually traded 1.2 in the run when leading into the final furlong, but her finishing effort was disappointing and she faded to finish 4th.
Cheers guys.
WP, always a worry when they're stepping out of class 6 company.
WP, always a worry when they're stepping out of class 6 company.
Justmyluck, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 12.05 Musselburgh (4 PLACES)
Glenna, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 2.53 Nottingham
Suerte, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 7.15 Dundalk (4 PLACES)
Glenna, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 2.53 Nottingham
Suerte, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 7.15 Dundalk (4 PLACES)
Justmyluck
Justmyluck was a selection at the Ayr Western meeting when sent off at 50-1, when I wrote:
Justmyluck was out of his depth last time at Hamilton (5f, g-s) in a 0-91 when sent off at 100-1 and racing from 5lb out of the handicap, but he didn't shape too badly up to a point having raced towards the far side in a race where the action unfolded more towards the nearside, weakening out if it inside the final furlong having not helped his chance by taking a grip.
There was a suggestion in a couple of the other sprints on that card that racing more nearside might have been an advantage on the night, but that theory appeared to be blown out of the water when Theory Nil (who also runs in this) went and won the finale up the far side at odds of 40-1.
Justmyluck is eligible for slightly weaker races than this one but this class 5 still looks a lot more realistic than the class 3 he ran in last time, so I'm going to roll the dice at big odds and hope his low draw in this big field doesn't turn out to have been a negative.
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He didn't run too badly at Ayr (5f, g-s) to finish 7th of 20 and beaten 3L given he didn't settle early on. He's since run at Newcastle over a C&D where his sole win to date came, and he was well found in the market, but he never featured following an awakward start.
He's given another chance back on turf from a potentially favorable draw, though admittedly probably not the advantage it can be when the ground is riding quicker, and he seems to be fine on good to soft so hopefully he can handle today's soft, good to soft in places ground.
Justmyluck was a selection at the Ayr Western meeting when sent off at 50-1, when I wrote:
Justmyluck was out of his depth last time at Hamilton (5f, g-s) in a 0-91 when sent off at 100-1 and racing from 5lb out of the handicap, but he didn't shape too badly up to a point having raced towards the far side in a race where the action unfolded more towards the nearside, weakening out if it inside the final furlong having not helped his chance by taking a grip.
There was a suggestion in a couple of the other sprints on that card that racing more nearside might have been an advantage on the night, but that theory appeared to be blown out of the water when Theory Nil (who also runs in this) went and won the finale up the far side at odds of 40-1.
Justmyluck is eligible for slightly weaker races than this one but this class 5 still looks a lot more realistic than the class 3 he ran in last time, so I'm going to roll the dice at big odds and hope his low draw in this big field doesn't turn out to have been a negative.
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He didn't run too badly at Ayr (5f, g-s) to finish 7th of 20 and beaten 3L given he didn't settle early on. He's since run at Newcastle over a C&D where his sole win to date came, and he was well found in the market, but he never featured following an awakward start.
He's given another chance back on turf from a potentially favorable draw, though admittedly probably not the advantage it can be when the ground is riding quicker, and he seems to be fine on good to soft so hopefully he can handle today's soft, good to soft in places ground.
Glenna
Glenna has only encountered give in the ground on two occasions, when running well on her second career start last September at Windsor (one mile, soft) to finish 4th behind male opposition, and what looked a creditable effort on good to soft at Newbury (12f) in June, when she pulled clear up the straight with the Andrew Balding-trained Mythical Bay, and although ultimately unable to match that gelding, he would follow up off a 7lb higher mark in a valuable class 2 handicap at Newmarket's July Meeting.
Glenna did win next time off the same mark on good to firm at Windsor (11.5f), and has run well in defeat in three of four subsequent starts. She seems versatile regarding ground so it's not necessarily that she's better with give, and she wouldn't want this to become tactical back in trip over 10f, but interesting to see where her limitations lie on more demanding ground, off a mark just 2lb higher than for that Newbury effort.
Glenna has only encountered give in the ground on two occasions, when running well on her second career start last September at Windsor (one mile, soft) to finish 4th behind male opposition, and what looked a creditable effort on good to soft at Newbury (12f) in June, when she pulled clear up the straight with the Andrew Balding-trained Mythical Bay, and although ultimately unable to match that gelding, he would follow up off a 7lb higher mark in a valuable class 2 handicap at Newmarket's July Meeting.
Glenna did win next time off the same mark on good to firm at Windsor (11.5f), and has run well in defeat in three of four subsequent starts. She seems versatile regarding ground so it's not necessarily that she's better with give, and she wouldn't want this to become tactical back in trip over 10f, but interesting to see where her limitations lie on more demanding ground, off a mark just 2lb higher than for that Newbury effort.
Suerte
Suerte is a 16-race maiden but It looked a decent effort from her last time at Navan (yielding) on what was just her second try at around 10f, when from the widest draw in a field of 16 she stuck to her task well to finish second to a comfortable winner who would follow up off an 11lb higher mark in a 24-runner Curragh handicap.
She's been raised 3lb for that effort and there are mixed messages about whether Dundalk is for her as having running well to finish second over 6f here as a juvenile, her other three course efforts haven't been great including two starts back when she couldn't landed a blow when trying 10.5f for the first time, but might have had an excuse as she was caught far side as the action unfolded more towards the stands' side, though admittedly as she's drawn one this evening the same scenario could play out again.
Suerte is by Dandy Man but her latest effort would suggest that she stays this sort of trip and, while it's possible she may be better suited to turf, a chance is taken at the prices with her being unexposed over the distance.
Suerte is a 16-race maiden but It looked a decent effort from her last time at Navan (yielding) on what was just her second try at around 10f, when from the widest draw in a field of 16 she stuck to her task well to finish second to a comfortable winner who would follow up off an 11lb higher mark in a 24-runner Curragh handicap.
She's been raised 3lb for that effort and there are mixed messages about whether Dundalk is for her as having running well to finish second over 6f here as a juvenile, her other three course efforts haven't been great including two starts back when she couldn't landed a blow when trying 10.5f for the first time, but might have had an excuse as she was caught far side as the action unfolded more towards the stands' side, though admittedly as she's drawn one this evening the same scenario could play out again.
Suerte is by Dandy Man but her latest effort would suggest that she stays this sort of trip and, while it's possible she may be better suited to turf, a chance is taken at the prices with her being unexposed over the distance.
Thanks lead on. It was annoying that he got done for third on the bob having looked sure to finish in that position, but three of the main firms were offering an extra place and I did stipulate 4 places in my selection post.
If I were to continue with the thread on the new forum then one advantage would be being able to name the firms offering the prices / places, as I had to stop doing that on here because the posts were being taken down.
vonclausewitz and Virgin, cheers.
A poor end to the day with Suerte, who was far too keen off steady fractions. I suspect she probably needs a forward ride around Dundalk based on the Navan evidence where she rallied well up the hill, but that could be tricky to pull off if she refuses to settle.
2026 Running P/L: +70.64 pts
A poor end to the day with Suerte, who was far too keen off steady fractions. I suspect she probably needs a forward ride around Dundalk based on the Navan evidence where she rallied well up the hill, but that could be tricky to pull off if she refuses to settle.
2026 Running P/L: +70.64 pts
Lady Youmzain, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 2.10 Doncaster (4 PLACES)
Wateen, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 5.30 Southwell (4 PLACES)
Wateen, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 5.30 Southwell (4 PLACES)
Lady Youmzain
Lady Youmzain faces a tough task in this Listed contest being a 3YO filly in open company with adjusted official ratings not in her favour, however, a chance is taken at the prices as she's definitely shaped better than the bare result on at least one occasion this season, notably at Haydock in May (6f, g-s) when doing well to finish 3rd of 15 having been drawn one in a Listed contest dominated by those drawn high, and although that was confined to fillies & mares, the winner ran a cracker on her next start to finish a close fourth in the King Charles III Stakes (Group 1) at Royal Ascot.
The selection could only finish 6th of 13 on her latest start in fillies and mares Listed company at Newmarket (6f, good) last time when Ryan Moore was booked, but again she appeared disadvantaged by where she raced on the track having been caught away from where the action unfolded but did keep on.
The selection appears versatile regarding surface and probably has a bigger effort in her when things pan out more favourably.
Lady Youmzain faces a tough task in this Listed contest being a 3YO filly in open company with adjusted official ratings not in her favour, however, a chance is taken at the prices as she's definitely shaped better than the bare result on at least one occasion this season, notably at Haydock in May (6f, g-s) when doing well to finish 3rd of 15 having been drawn one in a Listed contest dominated by those drawn high, and although that was confined to fillies & mares, the winner ran a cracker on her next start to finish a close fourth in the King Charles III Stakes (Group 1) at Royal Ascot.
The selection could only finish 6th of 13 on her latest start in fillies and mares Listed company at Newmarket (6f, good) last time when Ryan Moore was booked, but again she appeared disadvantaged by where she raced on the track having been caught away from where the action unfolded but did keep on.
The selection appears versatile regarding surface and probably has a bigger effort in her when things pan out more favourably.
Wateen
Wateen, who ended her time with Alice Haynes by contesting Listed / Group 3 races in France as a juvenile, has yet to make the frame in three starts since joining Robert Cowell. However, she didn't shape too badly on her latest start and all-weather debut over c&d, which came off a three-month break, having chased the unexposed Elyam (a winner since off 4lb higher in a stronger grade) into the final furlong before losing second place around half-a-furlong from home and fading to finish 7th of the ten runners, ultimately beaten just under 6L, having perhaps not been well drawn, in what was the quicker of two divisions. The second and third have won subsequently, the fourth and fifth haven't run since, while the 6th made the frame on his next start at Newcastle.
Wateen has had a further 6 weeks off having missed an intended start over c&d last month when reportedly in season, and she's landed another low draw, but a chance is taken at the prices having been dropped a further 3lb and now eased slightly in grade.
Wateen, who ended her time with Alice Haynes by contesting Listed / Group 3 races in France as a juvenile, has yet to make the frame in three starts since joining Robert Cowell. However, she didn't shape too badly on her latest start and all-weather debut over c&d, which came off a three-month break, having chased the unexposed Elyam (a winner since off 4lb higher in a stronger grade) into the final furlong before losing second place around half-a-furlong from home and fading to finish 7th of the ten runners, ultimately beaten just under 6L, having perhaps not been well drawn, in what was the quicker of two divisions. The second and third have won subsequently, the fourth and fifth haven't run since, while the 6th made the frame on his next start at Newcastle.
Wateen has had a further 6 weeks off having missed an intended start over c&d last month when reportedly in season, and she's landed another low draw, but a chance is taken at the prices having been dropped a further 3lb and now eased slightly in grade.
Lady Youmzain could only finish in midfield, and there'll be easier opportunities at this level back into fillies & mares company, should connections persevere with her.
Wateen always looked like she was doing too much on this first start for six weeks, in a race that set up for the closers, and she weakened quickly inside the final furlong.
2026 Running P/L: +66.64 pts
Wateen always looked like she was doing too much on this first start for six weeks, in a race that set up for the closers, and she weakened quickly inside the final furlong.
2026 Running P/L: +66.64 pts
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