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never remotely in the hunt.
well done whoever knew
well done whoever knew
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(Morning price: 4/1 3/1 11/4 5/2 9/4 5/2 11/4 10/3 7/2 11/2)
(Ring price: 4/1 9/2 5/1 11/2 13/2 7/1 13/2 7/1 13/2) SP 13/2 9/4 > 7/1 laying it here at 10/1  |
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Dani Donadoni did the same for Mullins 4.0 out to 12.0, never in it
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its free money laying all of the big drifters. no need for anyone to go to work, there are plenty of big drifters every day to get stuck into. just join the party instead of moaning about it.
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Try that until you get burned,TTT,because you most certainly will be.
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I feel they probably come in 1 in 10 times, and people then say " see drifters do win " but it doesn't belie the fact that those in the know are laying 4.0 on 11.0 shots, whilst those getting stuck in to lay the 11.0 on the theory are getting it's true price
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uptheirons
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And of course sometimes the 4.0 shots drifting to 11.0 are still a truer price of 100.0 for their chance. those denying this are in de nile !
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TameTheTiger 29 Dec 25 15:34
its free money laying all of the big drifters. no need for anyone to go to work, there are plenty of big drifters every day to get stuck into. just join the party instead of moaning about it. apart from Oh Clare 4 > 20 i concur. |
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You should only Lay on your own opinion,not drifters
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A stable=hand in the know would be in the pay of a bookmaker rather than trying to mine the ever-thinning seams of betfair's pre-race markets - you could not lay a tenner now.
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trick is to lay on the way up. lay if the price doubles. so 4.0 out to 11.0 would have been layed at 7.0. the 4.3 out to 10.5 would have been layed at 7.6
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oh clare would have been layed at 6.0. only 1 in 20 big drifters win. so still plenty of profit even with that one winning
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some very clever people out there, laying a 9/4 fav at 10/1 and watching as it never gets within 15 lengths of the lead
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unitedbiscuits 29 Dec 25 16:00
A stable=hand in the know would be in the pay of a bookmaker rather than trying to mine the ever-thinning seams of betfair's pre-race markets - you could not lay a tenner now. can lay what ewe want if you give value. |
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I recall Broadhurst going on a massive drift after AOB came on the telly and said he fancied it a lot. I put it up on here, then he did this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qPjyBBZDw0 From my perspective it's when do you ignore the market, and back the value. If you backed Zillow today for example, difficult not to feel a bit of a sucker afterwards. Mind games, as per usual with horse race betting. |
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towards rear, progress into mid division after 3 out, pushed along on outer after next, soon no impression
15th. 16 ran. beaten 44.62 lengths 9/4 fav. |
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theres no juice laying drifters at the top price, or backing steamers at the bottom price
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Punts are a bit different, if a horse is much shorter than it ought to be close to the off, there's often a good reason for that. Improvement for the application of cash and all that.
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Zillow was backed 5/1 to 7/2 when landing the €100,000 BAR 1 Casino H´dle at Fairyhouse 4 weeks ago.
comes out today, drifts 9/4 to 10/1 and is the last to complete the course, beaten 44 lengths ? ok  |
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/\ Only if
1) the mkt reverses or 2) you know stable expectations or 3) you have a speed advantage Imo |
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Spoiler: you do not have a speed advantage
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Feel free to Lay on Market guesses,gentlemen,you will be carried out
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I back them. Selectively.
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Roger that, uptheirons.
Betfair could not even break even seeding their own morning markets, two boxes behind the best price. |
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Cider must be Nostradamus
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TameTheTiger 29 Dec 25 16:02
oh clare would have been layed at 6.0. only 1 in 20 big drifters win. so still plenty of profit even with that one winning i'd imagine dozens drift 3/1 > 5/1..doesnt indicate wont be winning...prob does when it gets to 12/1 tho. |
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you don't lay a 9/4f at 10.5 cos you "think" it might not go on the ground. or you "think" it might not like the track.
you lay a 9/4f at 10.5 when you know it's going to be held up out the back and is never getting better than mid div. which it didn't. |
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3 out to 5, rarely comes back in. if it goes bigger, you have the value. if it goes off at 5, scratch the lay.if it does come back in (rarely does), take the red.
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Just some common sense applied, irons. ie no obvious reason for the drift, no obvious reason why it wouldn't be off, reliable connections, I fancy it anyway. And obviously, sometimes they run like the market anticipates and you accept the risk that there is some information not in the public domain. Would I be betting Inothewayurthinkin in the Savills after the drift, absolutely not.
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"Guessers are us"
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some guessers are educated
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And they will still be carried over time
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You remember the winners obviously, Lot Of Joy was a great example for me earlier in the season. All the money in the market was for another runner from the yard. Often that happens when the market puts too much weight on to the perceived 1st string, but there might not be much in it.
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backing second strings is much better financially than backing the more favoured one in the betting
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Do any of you think that you are smarter than JP & Co?
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reliable connections
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im confident id do better than him on the 1% club
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