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29 Nov 25
09:59
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05 Oct 11
Another difficult day. All my eggs in one basket with this one. Hoping the ground is as soft as possible.
On that basis, I think she was/is very much over priced as the outsider of the field. In the old days this would have been an each-way extra bet with 365, but the gulf between standard and extra place terms has now rendered that bet increasingly pointless. William Hill no doubt offering better, but only any good if you can get on. So no alternative, but usual place terms. It would have worked had I bothered with West Hill Verde yesterday, but I thought he was going to be a handicap project.
Back to Watamu, both sire and the useful dam loved a testing surface so the ground should be a big plus. She bolted up in her bumper, and ran much better than the bare result on hurdling debut. She travelled well, but having been keen didn't finish with any purpose. Despite weakening, she still finished in front of a couple of today's rivals who are priced up shorter. Can Cobden get her settled and jumping a little better? Doesn't always work - see Regent's Stroll - but if he does manage to do that, she has a good chance of at least being in the mix. It is a competitive race, but at this stage there is no superstar in the race.
On that basis, I think she was/is very much over priced as the outsider of the field. In the old days this would have been an each-way extra bet with 365, but the gulf between standard and extra place terms has now rendered that bet increasingly pointless. William Hill no doubt offering better, but only any good if you can get on. So no alternative, but usual place terms. It would have worked had I bothered with West Hill Verde yesterday, but I thought he was going to be a handicap project.
Back to Watamu, both sire and the useful dam loved a testing surface so the ground should be a big plus. She bolted up in her bumper, and ran much better than the bare result on hurdling debut. She travelled well, but having been keen didn't finish with any purpose. Despite weakening, she still finished in front of a couple of today's rivals who are priced up shorter. Can Cobden get her settled and jumping a little better? Doesn't always work - see Regent's Stroll - but if he does manage to do that, she has a good chance of at least being in the mix. It is a competitive race, but at this stage there is no superstar in the race.
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Interesting, I take Sheezer Dancer (the real outsider of the race at 40/1 on here) as likely to improve past Watamu. Skelton has a record of 2-1-3 in this race. GL.
Tricky race, Clondaw Park was my initial fancy but is drifting a little so have gone 4places with Watamu.
Clondaw Park going ok when unseating.
Watamu one for handicaps judged by that ride.
Watamu one for handicaps judged by that ride.
Although she has ended up fifth that was very disappointing. No improvement in the jumping or settling stakes for swapping Jones with Cobden. If anything that was a step backwards. At the moment she needs organising at every hurdle, something which Cobden consistently failed to do, and the failure to settle means she isn't staying 12 furlongs, let alone the minimum trip. If they cannot sort her out maybe she will just end up on the flat? She was backed 50/1R4 - 14/1, but that's no consolation.
Runs in the opening race at Huntingdon tomorrow. Market suggests she should be placed, but I would be far from confident that will happen - see above. The favourite might be different class and the second in is nicely bred, but is making her jumping debut. There doesn't look too much else. Obviously, they are trying a quicker track, and have retained Cobden. I assume he will ride her exactly the same, and if she doesn't jump/settle yet again, she could end up in all sorts of trouble given the size of the field. I would actually like to see the total opposite ride on the front end. Currently no bigger than 8/1, it will be interesting to see if the layers try and get her.
I holidayed in Watamu many years ago, an idyllic small resort on the Kenyan Indian Ocean.
Did all the bad things I suggested it would - jumping was awful - but got away with it. The conclusion would be that it was a pretty poor race and the favourite isn't much cop. I can only assume that the quicker track and better ground helped Watamu finish her race off that much better than before. Her two wins have now come on quick tracks.
The only credit I can claim is flagging the horse up in the first place. Unless it sorts out the problems that clearly haven't been solved then you couldn't be confident what it's going to deliver.
If there is any luck it's that I don't lay horses. Many moons ago I got 5 numbers on the lottery, but haven't done it since the £1 days.
If there is any luck it's that I don't lay horses. Many moons ago I got 5 numbers on the lottery, but haven't done it since the £1 days.
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