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Age over 4 but not over 10.
Carrying 9.2 or less
Ran in the last 60 days
4th or better last time out
Double figure price.
Irish trained horses have won 6 of the last 8.
Has Won on the flat over 1 m 6 f plus .
Only 4 winning favs since 1993
Rated 87 to 94
On the above basis I am going 6 place ew on Ndaawi, Fireblade and Mordor. Ndaawi has not won on the flat over 1m 6 f but should stay as he was only beaten a length in a 2 miler at Chester.
Good luck all!
Carrying 9.2 or less
Ran in the last 60 days
4th or better last time out
Double figure price.
Irish trained horses have won 6 of the last 8.
Has Won on the flat over 1 m 6 f plus .
Only 4 winning favs since 1993
Rated 87 to 94
On the above basis I am going 6 place ew on Ndaawi, Fireblade and Mordor. Ndaawi has not won on the flat over 1m 6 f but should stay as he was only beaten a length in a 2 miler at Chester.
Good luck all!
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you've missed the most important factor for this race
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Go on then , is it luck?
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the draw
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Draw? High numbers were at a disadvantage unless the ground was soft, but it’s not the race it used to be as there are fewer runners.
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I don't share that view
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Thanks Brian, i'll see which of my fancies fit in with the trends.
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Winter Fog,but doesn’t fit age and OR,gl to find a winner
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Cheers Stewart good luck. 3
Wonders, i researched the draw and found a normal distribution with winners in stall 2 and one in draw 24 in the last 12 years . |
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Hoping Mordor wins me the Itv7. You will be on 0%. Sry, picked it before reading.
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for draw I look broader than just winners
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whether its far side course or near side course makes a difference also be lucky
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I consider winners are fairly important . They will of course race on the inside rail ( just one turn ) its just that sometimes highly drawn runners will not get the chance to run away with the jockey and thus can save energy for the extended distance finish.
Hope Mordor wins Honcho. It is of course a bit of a lottery but prices will be good. On bf anyway. |
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taken the discussion as far as I can gl with your bets
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Yes fair enough . We shall see . Good luck and thanks for your input.
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likewise
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Hipop de loire for me
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The horse I've backed only fails the above tends by not finishing in the first 4 but would have definitely finished in the 4 with a clear run LTO
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Alphonse Le Grande has a lot going for him here. Won this race last year and this has no doubt has been the plan all season for him. He enjoys quick going (plenty in here won't) and he can win off his current mark. GL lads
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Going to take a punt on Caprelo ew (6) at a massive win price probably better on AW
but chance even out of the weights gl chaps |
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ndaawi just for an interest
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2nd 3rd
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has brians done his brains?
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Shishtums and shtats just aint pour moi
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brians got a 6th
wd brians. |
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No, dangle flaps, I do believe he had the winner
Just didn’t name it  |
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trends change, my flares are back in.
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The winner fitted at least 4 of the trends. Its not my fault he wasn't bought by Mr Mullins !
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backfitting should be for boilermen only.
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Ndaawi too , but just because the trainer told the stewards last year that it didnt stay (finished last ) , no need to enter again then ride it like it doesnt!
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brians11 Oct 25 19:34Joined: 23 Dec 02 | Topic/replies: 1,759 | Blogger: brians's blog
The winner fitted at least 4 of the trends. Its not my fault he wasn't bought by Mr Mullins ! six out of every four brians dont understand stats. 14 of todays runners hit at least four of your trends. |
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Well that allows you to discount half the field. I understand that . Do you?
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Further more your assessment of 14 fitting 4 stats is demonstrably nonsense. 19 runners, 6 failed the ratings stat alone , 3 failed the age, 4 different horses failed the placed first 4 last time out, 19 - 13 = 6.
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