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05 Jul 25
17:01
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Date Joined:
07 Sep 18
dont think involves 1st 2.
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Surely have to reverse given fine margin, the intimidation cost the second
i got em mixed up wen seen blv hd on 
interference is very marginal again..lost no momentum..but only won inches..same as the one earlier.
interference is very marginal again..lost no momentum..but only won inches..same as the one earlier.
made him go half a stride sidewards ,all count when its nose,i,d say he lost by less than the brush cost him
Who are these people making o meara 1/5 shot to keep race, my God
think it 1.25 on here to keep the race.....think the decision is harsh
At least mics will not need to threaten to kick in someones back door
getting a disq for that you're never safe in this game.
packed in early first view this morning. Got to appeal. Pole Star gave a bump in the earlier race We dare to Dream didn't. ShH v nose but a bump more significant. No wonder fpp was sub 1/5
Who are these people making o meara 1/5 shot to keep race, my God Post your big lay mics
Was only 1.2 before the head on was shown on rtv, then it drifted right out.
Once they determine interference took place and the distance is a nose, hard to argue then that it didn't influence the result.
Once they determine interference took place and the distance is a nose, hard to argue then that it didn't influence the result.
What about pole star cider ? He bumped the other horse. Short head.
"Was only 1.2 before the head on was shown on rtv, then it drifted right out." You make it sound like there was only a short time between the finish and rtv showing the head on. If you're talking main channel it was 4:57:37 race finish 5:02:53 head on.
A SH is obviously further than a nose, so there is marginal wiggle room there. And the nose was a few pixels. The grey was in front immediately after the line. In the second case anyway, I can't see how they could not turn it around once it was confirmed there was interference suffered, however marginal. The first one it is plausible to argue that fptp would still have won.
I'd say if you are on the fptp by a nose, and there is a stewards, your only hope is that there was actually no interference (or they harmed each other equally, or indeed, the second caused it).
I'd say if you are on the fptp by a nose, and there is a stewards, your only hope is that there was actually no interference (or they harmed each other equally, or indeed, the second caused it).
No it was 1.2 as they showed the head on. I was following it as I laid the fptp in the photo betting. When the head on was shown I tried to get more but had to lay 1.4, a few seconds later it was 1.7ish
you laid it in the photo betting because you thought it WASN'T fptp I take it ?
yup. greys can be tricky to place in photos and at the prices it was worth a stab
they shouldn't be swayed by such things but they were making no trainer happy by switching in the former race but made Rod happy in the latter 
you could argue them [ pundits ] , us as punters have brought it on ourselves ,we,re now told a horse going straight has a stride length of 18m +,if as in this case the horse during that stride is knocked slightly sideways hard to argue it hasnt lost him at least a nose
makes a mockery yesterday of dawson wiping out.interfering to different amounts with 4 of the 1st 5 home and keeping the race
Cider 06 Jul 25 12:16
yup. greys can be tricky to place in photos and at the prices it was worth a stab
walofs..the winner had clearly won on the slo mo.
yup. greys can be tricky to place in photos and at the prices it was worth a stab
walofs..the winner had clearly won on the slo mo.
problem with winning a nose is 'if' its caused some kind of interference the likeyhood is its getting disq.
yes obviously once everyone has seen the slow motion then the market will be more accurate. if i play in photos I try to take a position before everyone has seen the slow motion. this can be a very short window, even non existent, depending on when the market is unsuspended, and the slow motion broadcast.
no. most I presume like me have a perception in their mind of what won the nod. then I look at the prices, and if there's enough juice to play vs my first impression, I will. I am not set up to win fff battles, and have no inclination to try. but I can win on instinct.
ive seens dozens win live imo that have lost..its guessing.
if one's won by a nose and it's a bobbing finish it's deffo guessing. Of course if you think the market is way wrong there is an opportunity but how often would a large majority be wrong and cider right ? Maybe he will post his last 12 months photo bets. 
It's obviously not guessing as you've just seen the finish, and betting based on what you've just seen. Guessing would be betting on it without having viewed it. Obviously better information will soon follow, but the market will correct accordingly.
sounds like you are suggesting Rico is clueless and you are a live photo wizz...think he will be back
his MO is beating people to the price. if I wait to view the slow motion of freeze frame, I wouldn't be betting on the photos as I have no edge in that space
doesn't matter what his MO is. We are talking about something else.
my big betting edge is specials and the people who bet heavily in specials had lengthy discussions about this sort of thing, ie strategies and methodology. doesn't matter how you win long term, it's just important that you do. people religiously follow social media and polls for their positions, and it can work for them. whereas the market being formed around those variables gave me my edge.
not all that clear what the point is to be honest. if I just watch the finish of the race, and the market is unsuspended due to a photo, me taking a position based on the prices and what I have just seen is not guessing. which you two appear to be claiming it is. another discussion where we can agree to disagree!
trouble is what evidence of your success ( to prove it's not guessing ) is produced ? All we have at the moment is you backed a grey horse on Saturday that was not fptp.
if cider gets odds against on every photo that its tite live then he will prob win over time.
having been here for over 20yrs and not daft you'd be surprised if he wasn't
"if cider gets odds against on every photo that its tite live then he will prob win over time." we'd love him to bet 10k each time though
It's just an illogical way to take the chat. Betting on a photo when you've just watched the race is palpably not guessing. Clearly you have less chance of getting it right, based on the 'live' view, rather than watching a slow motion repay first, but that is factored into the market prices. For sure, someone waiting to view the slow motion/freeze frame will get it right more than I will. But at the prices they are probably consistently taking, they'll need a near perfect strike rate to stay above water.
but that is factored into the market prices. For sure
rong cider..ive seen plenty look the winner live and are long odds on until slo mo appears and other goes 101.
rong cider..ive seen plenty look the winner live and are long odds on until slo mo appears and other goes 101.
That's right. Generally you'd find the market closer to the result after the first 4f of a race. So you're saying you'd rather watch 4f of the race, and see which horses are pulling, going too fast, gone too wide, found a great posi etc. And betting before the gates open is guessing. I say it's just at different information points of the event.
I think he did mean in foto. I still say he's guessing with each individual bet. I think his real judgement if he wins is saying the punters are betting too short on one that has not definitely won. Don't believe he has better eyesight/judgement himself. He's cashing in on other's mistakes which is what all betting is anyway.
Why do so called 'serious' gamblers have a problem with admitting guesswork plays a part in probably all their betting? Be it horses, sports or cards you don't def know the outcome (I don't include laying fallers etc as that isn't gambling - nor is picking up a winning ticket off the bookies floor and cashing it!) and are guessing to an extent however much you claim its 'judgement' .
Be honest with yourselves for once and embrace your inner guesser!
Be honest with yourselves for once and embrace your inner guesser!
Another fun photo market involving a grey at salls berry. Prices everywhere for that one !
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on RTV i favoured this side but i know the angle is deceptive so would have waited for the slo mo where far side clearly won.
on RTV i favoured this side but i know the angle is deceptive so would have waited for the slo mo where far side clearly won.
ffs thats just incredible..one thurs night my m8 sed check replay..i said was tight but favoured far side..he sed it was 6/4..never happens during the day ffs.
been 2/3 this week thats won an inch and all were 1.02 ish
this was a big price, had a neighbour round wasn't doing the race, looked up and said far side's won that OK, shocked to see 1.5 pop up. As you say they don't seem to be there when you're in your seat!
could only have been before the slo mo appeared?
winners won comfy then..
but as i said on RTV i favoured this side but Sals is one of a few tracks were the RTV angle is very deceptive.
winners won comfy then..
but as i said on RTV i favoured this side but Sals is one of a few tracks were the RTV angle is very deceptive.
appeal tuesday. Could Cider get the photo wrong
AND the stewards ?
AND the stewards ?
i dont think will be overturned..if you cause any intereference and win a few inches you're in trouble.
Could Cider get the photo wrong
AND the stewards ? And he's got his money
AND the stewards ? And he's got his money
still think pole star gave much more of a bump earlier race..and kept it.
shd hd v nose if I remember. Anyway well worth an appeal. Millman sounded a bit nervous when mentioning it on Saturday.
looks like yer 1/6 collects...and Cider has got something right
Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds
Backer's stake
Payout
Liability
Indy B
1.10
;)
Backer's odds
Backer's stake
Payout
Liability
Indy B
1.10
;)
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