Irish derby 16.10 curragh

Perhaps you should watch the race again as I just did. Even the commentator remarks on the horse being pushed along from the start.

To get a position yeah, like most them, then he dropped it
And was left alone, to do what he wanted

The Merchant dream didn't last too long. Bookmakers win again without having to do anything. Obviously, I got Highclere wrong. A line through the Irish Derby puts him very close to already being the best 3yo with plenty more progression to come. Certainly more progression than Lambourn. It begs the question why even bother with the entry? He looks good enough to run, and they are still not running. What happened to the old spirit of taking a chance? More than likely will be odds on at Goodwood, and the race will prove very little.

It puts him close, on paper, to the best 3yo not close to being the best 3yo, for whatever reason.
One of the Serious Contender form lines has to be open to question, imv, but which one.?
His second to Merchant also saw him beat Pantile Warrior, a horse with absolutely no classic pretensions, by a neck.
As for Merchant having “plenty more progression to come” after six runs and Lambourn to have little or no room for further progression after one more run would seem somewhat spurious.

Lambourn has fallen over the line in a Group 1, Merchant has won a Royal Ascot handicap. On that basis alone I would have thought it pretty obvious that Merchant has more progression in him. Lambourn can only progress within Group 1's.

“Fallen” over the line?  Are you having a laugh?  “You would have thought”?
It will be interesting to see your evidence, if it ever materialises.

I backed Lambourn in both races, but I think you must have been watching a different race. For most of the straight it was touch and go whether he was even going to win. A far cry from the English version.

I would like to think my 'evidence' will be obvious to anyone as I would be very surprised if Merchant doesn't win something a little better than a handicap. Much more difficult to find the evidence that Lambourn improves. For me he has already taken a step backwards from Epsom to the Curragh.

Merchant 20-14-10/1 with 365 for the leger since Sunday.

Either way Lambourn goes down a boring dual derby winner.

You bet AP you take your chances on whether connections will go for it, already said Haggas was the problemo to him running in the KG

Agree the Goodwood race and the the York one after is senseless, taking in two trials before you even get there! Nah for the Leger thanks!

Add to it what HH says :

"He's very well after Ascot and the plan is very much to go to the Gordon, as long as William is happy with him, and then on to the Great Voltigeur at York's Ebor meeting," Herbert said. "It's possible he could be a St Leger horse and it's a fabulous race, but is going a mile and six the right move for him? We'll see. We have to take it one step at a time in mind for the future.

Gets beat in one of the trials and the Leger a bye bye!

Don’t you just hate all the bs? Say this race is the target or not!

There you go again, “for most of the straight”.  For half of the straight he was embattled, for one, maybe two strides at a stretch he was levelled, then he showed his class to dig deep and gradually re-assert, to win well.  There is no doubt about the quality of the performance at all.
As for Merchant being sure to win a better forthcoming race than a handicap I say “no chit Sherlock”.  He’s hardly likely to be downgraded is he?
And, if “boring” is confirming your Derby win by winning the next one,…………….?
Gp1 winners can’t improve in the manner you suggest because there is no higher grade.  And, if Merchant is ever tried in a Group 1, and for me it is a big if, well possibly find out if he can improve.
Until then Lambourn is the double Derby winner of 2025 and, Serious Contender, the horse beaten by Merchant and who himself beat a horse who will never enter a Gp1 is the enigma.  At the moment Merchant is too.

Yes boring, as in he doesn’t set anyone’s pulses racing unless they are on at odds on and see him almost get turned over by a stablemate.

Thats a fair thing to say as no one is currently talking him up for KG or Arc.

DD hs backed two Daryz & Merchsnt and has had the hump ever since regarding their targets!

If the Dual Derby winner was exciting would he be looking elsewhere in races which he could yet take in?

You play AP you take your chances.

I see things differently.  He drew on his gut reserves and proved he was the best on the day.  A different style of win but a classic win.  And, if classics and Gp1’s are boring then we’d best tell three hundred odd years of class assessment that their work is irrelevant.

No doubting he’s a tough horse, exciting NO for the reasons given, untouched upon.

The Irish Derby a real Derby? Naaaah!

You know very well there are group 1’s and then G1’s.

The Tatts has been floating on that verge for ages. Often a benefit for AOB’s older horses.

And I’d go as far to say that he’s that unexciting that everyone in general turned their nose up after he beat Lazy Griff at Chester and got hoodwinked into looking for one sexier, as DD is doing.

Plenty wanted to believe that Lion was the comeback Kid part 3, or that Delacroix was overlooked and made fav for the Derby, whilst he sat the at 16/1.

Whilst winner of the worst Dante was 4/1.

Again he was given the sexier profile two from two. Also like Midak, but the form amounted to nothing.

Only now we see Lazy Griff had beaten a French Oaks winner at 2, that his last three runs weren’t flukes.

Very exciting.  It is what competition is all about.  Bring out that extra which wins the prize.  See off all comers.
The horse has now won classics going right and left handed.  He has won by leading and seeing off all comers, the leading and coming again.
Nothing at all unexciting about that for me.  It may even turn out that going right handed makes him a little less effective.
Whatever he does next doesn’t make him ineffectual because we haven’t been told yet where he goes next.
He’s no Dancing Brave but then D.B. is no Lambourn.
Hugely interested in where Serious Contender goes next.  Can’t see them meeting again but never say never.
Be lucky.

You’ve misread me, I was saying that it’d be nice to know whether they are aiming Merchant at the Leger.

Seems you’re quite attached to the horse, can’t see that he isn’t sexy. Is he a sexy breeding prospect?

People were saying he’s more for the NH stud.

Think he can drop back to 10f?

No one has discussed that.

Ok. 
What do they do with him?  Did he beat the same Serious Contender that turned up at the Curragh.?
Whatever he does Merchant will be subject to huge expectation.  By many.

Yes you’ll all be on no doubt. Going into that Ascot handicap he had a good draw by stats, every dog was barking about him. Now they are trying g to put people away as to where he goes next.

The fellas on the RP preview had said that they prefer betting shorties in the Ascot handicaps, than the G1’s because it’s almost a gimmie (good thing) like a Mullins shorty in a handicap at Chelts.

Maybe Haggas knows the next step is a bigger one than punters expect because a 40/1 shot the night before gave the Derby winner a fright and franked the form from Ascot.

For me the Irish Derby looked an odd race, though we both said that the form was franked by LG TS.

T
Lambourn however didn’t ever look comfortable and I wonder - had said it above if the expected that big a run from SC.

Who I also said on that run would have gone close in Paris on the 13th July.

Who do they run there now? Because it’s sometimes the place where their Leger runners stretch their legs.

As tough as Lambourn is I believe SC to be seriously tough. To run like that Ten days later, after he’d set a stern gallop at Ascot and looked like he might fold, only to go on and see it through.

I agree.

As for Merchant you’re asking where does he go?

I’d be going for the GROUP 1 Grand Prix De Paris and supping him.  Anything can go wrong in the interlude between now and Goodwood.

He’ll not face much there and they can always say didn’t travel well or whatever. Ambition that’s sexy or so I’ve heard!

Take AOB he had a horse that was well and run it.
I can understand that they’d waver over taking on older horses with Merchant, but in France he’d face beaten horses from the PDJC. Camille P was given the lowest rating in years, but that’s misleading as he won cheeky.
Trinty C franked the form and was impressive I thought at Ascot, form that linked it to the Derby & Stanhope through Tornado Alert.

The Bradfords were brave with Connigree in the Gold Cup sometimes you have to be, but there’s other options.

Eccomics has been looked after but is missing, time waits for no man as they say.

And that is a valid point which never or seldom gets discussed.
After the Eclipse it was a deft that COT would never do so again.

Have you seen the mile race around the tight right handed track in Craon where Lambourn won?

Thanks Delashay, will have a look.

Ffs, honcho, delahash, dont give up your day jobs, race readers you are
Certainly not

Thank you so much.  Your valuable contributions are always eagerly devoured.  Then the body does its work. 

Lambourne, will show up in ledger, if any race, he’s too slow for a king George
And an Arc, unless it bottomless. He’s a one paced sea horse, outstaying other one
3yo boats. Confirmed by the milky bar kid OB,

‘Hé might be a KG or Arc horse’, they will run him over in both races, if
There’s any good in going.

Jump stallion full stop

Calandagan looks a good thing for KG on g/f   just bring him wide and he will do any  OB horse.

Both Derbys were poor Races imo, long time since I watched both races
And found nothing in behin, hé got it his own way at Epsom, it was put it to
Him at the curragh, Beckett horse horse him at it 5 out, and he’s not much lop
Hé stumbled home all out, KG ARc, dont think so, in the French race, they wil
Just quicken past him, thé older horses ?? Thsts just my opinion, other opinions…,

Calandagan looks a good thing for KG on g/f   just bring him wide and he will do any  OB horse.

Is he a touch soft Howard?? Travels, quickens, then flattens out?? A really fast 1m 1/4 ???
Jury’s out? If everything falls right, then Yezh

Can’t see him doing the KG.  Can’t see him doing the Arc.  Might do the St Leger.  Can’t see him siring a County Hurdle winner.  Does look like he’ll stamp his stock with stamina.
Thank you once again for contributing to the discussion.
However all of the above is conjecture.  What is certain is that he has won two Derbys, the Irish in a time approaching three seconds faster than anything else on the day and 3.72 secs. faster than standard.
Not bad for a crab.

Calandgan has a one long acceleration, as Dupre used to describe some of his stayers such as Americain, Dolniya, Shareta…. It’s a trait of the Aga horses.

I successfully bet against Calandagan  in the Sheema Turf because I knew he’d be held up and something else would get first run on him.

Pointed out the same would happen again despite a smaller field in the Coronation.

Race reading comes in handy before a race, hence two winners one being 14/1 who was doubled up with another @ 14/1  on World Cup night in the Dubai Turf, formally Duty Free.

As for talking up the French colt to take the KG you’re counting on him reversing form with one horse! Genius!

France last time was a good confidence booster and Goyen didn’t press Aventure.

From Graffard direct from the Anti Post forum

Mickaël Barzalona had only one wish: “Not to be too far from Adventure.” And he succeeded. In the wake of Christophe Ferland’s mare, the jockey of the Aga Khan Studs had the one everyone considered their main rival in his line of sight and could ensure that she did not take too much field. But by focusing on a single opponent, Calandagan also took the risk of seeing the animator slip away when approaching the home straight.

Nuff said!

What price for Lambourn not seeing another racecourse in public? He's over-achieved courtesy of the inflated potentials by his connections of his tablemates ie The Lion In Winter and Delacroix. I think the prevailing fast ground at The Curragh was a significant influencer of the time recorded.

I think AOB was talking up his potential when he mentioned the King George and the ARC as possible targets.

“Over-achieved”?  “Inflated potentials of his stablemates”?
Winning two Derbys is a brilliant achievement, not over achievement. in my opinion of course.
, and achieved on the racecourse not in some school of media and spectator thought.
As for suggesting he may never race again I’d be interested to know why when he is as fit as he will ever be.
Has Coolmore ever retired a three year old champion before the end of their 3yo career?

The runners in the Epsom and Curragh Derbies were much of a muchness. I do not think the overrans will do much good as a 3 or 4 yr old. As for Lambourn he'd only beat his adversaries on the days. But, a serious King George contender I'd not think so.

As for The ARC very unlikely as that will do his stallion fee considerable harm, I'd think.

It’s a rare Derby that throws up several top flight horses.  I agree it might be a mistake to put him in the King George.
We’ll just have to wait and see.

It’s a rare Derby that throws up several top flight horses.  I agree it might be a mistake to put him in the King George.
We’ll just have to wait and see.

Epsom Derby

1f  16.51  36mph
2f 13.12 33mph  Lambourn rousted along to get to the lead (broke slow as he had in France)
3f 13.63
4f 13.62
5f 14.35
6f 13.81    Lambourn still presses on…
7f 13.08    it’s been a relentless gallop on the front end, as he leads the turn downhill…
8f 12.33
9f 12.18
10f 11.39  *Lazy Griff knows he’s not reaching him.
11f 12.30
12f 12.69

Comments except for * are from Hoiles.

Anyone have the times from the Irish Derby to compare if his fractions were so evenly judged?

Coming around the bend at Epsom he had such a big advantage as we’d seen from front runners. 10f clinched it.

He was never as settled or within his comfort zone at the Curragh.

I only saw the race once on BF small screen and can’t stand the wobbly cameras that they have in Ireland at that track!

Impossible, winning the Arc will enhance his stud fee
As he will almost certainly be a jump stallion

Hé won’t attract flat mares, only NH mares, and that
Stallion market Is saturated, Coolmore have 16 or more
On roster. Last time I looked all well under 10k, other than
Walk in the park. Less jump mares these days. Tough game

And they have Jan Brugal, Illinois, los Angelos, kyprios, maybe
One or two others to find a job for, including Lambourn ??

The further they go the lower thé stud fee, that’s the new world
Of bloodstock. All the big stallion fee’s are for  flat stallions.I mile 2 maximum for a flat stallion these days?
Take Economics, he’s a Mile and half horse,, but they’ve kept
At 1 Mile two, he’s on his head most of the way in his races, to try make him a flat stallion?

Off course kyprios is not there’s, but they will probably
Stand him, and he will be popular, probably over 200 covers a year
Be 5 years before we find out if he’s any good?? Nice work
If you can get it?

You all have your own answer re targets but don’t see it - Lambourn needs to win a  G1 10f race. If not this year, next year as AOB does with all his older horses.

Tried this year with Los Angles in the POW

If anyone has times for the Irish Derby … to see if he ever was setting as perfect fractions as at Epsom.

Lambourn needs to go up in trip, a mile 1/4 G1, where??
If Sundays race was 1 1/4, thé becket horse might of beat him,
And he’s a Group 3 horse?? He’s only run against 3yo, thé older
Horses will quicken past him?? Looks a poor classic colt crop
This year?? We’ll see later in season, when they take on older horse?

If Blue Stocking can win an Arc!

The theme is Never say Never because even Prescott won one!

Couldn’t back any of the 3yo’s In the Eclipse on Saturday?
The guineas winner Is 20s

Any good race readers on here, fancy any of the 3yos
On Sat ??

Becket is running Sir over the wring trip then!

Let us know where i said something untoward about LAMBOURN’s run the Irish Derby?

Oh and put up your fancy for the Eclipse for us all to see

ponchoslament • July 2, 2025 6:21 PM BST
Haven’t done the race, but I have given you 6 already

Thanks for the 6!

Stanhope Gardens to upset the apple cart and run second to Ombudsman.  Was surely never going to stay the Derby 12f. This 10 might see him doing a lot better.
He’s a neck behind Pantile Warrior who’s a neck behind Serious Contender who’s a length behind the nighty Merchant, class 2 handicapper.

Hmmm maybe, at least you put one up, 20s,  He’s a length behind Tennessee stud
Who was 7 behind Delaquox?? Imagine Moore  will ride dela? Best chance of the 3yo’s ?

What’s wrong with the top one, if it gets any bigger than 14s?
Beat ombudsman, nearly 2 lens, getting 3, first run for oms
I know. Looked good at ascot but they went suicidal pace in thst
And all stopped.tgsts really his only run??  Wait for decs and draw
See what’s likely to lead, hopefully alaquam?

Does the jolly need end to end gallop?? 5/4 hmmmm

Confirmed runners and riders for the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown on Saturday with six going to post.

Delashay • July 2, 2025 6:27 PM BST
ponchoslament • July 2, 2025 6:21 PM BST
Haven’t done the race, but I have given you 6 already

Outstanding! Can you pick the lotto numbers next!

Sunday, July 13, 2025 at ParisLongchamp: Trinity College towards the Grand Prix de Paris (Gr. I)
Trinity College, who finished fourth in the Prix du Jockey Club, will return to France on Sunday, July 13, 2025 to compete in the Paris Grand Prix.

Aidan O'Brien has confirmed that Trinity College, who came fourth in the Prix du Jockey-Club and recently won the Hampton Court Stakes, Group III, held at Royal Ascot, will be sent to the Grand Prix de Paris. The son of Dubawi and Hermosa had been supplemented on Monday for the Deutsches Derby, but Aidan O'Brien explains: “He had received a free supplement for the Deutsches Derby thanks to his fourth place in the French Derby. But we decided to direct him rather towards the Grand Prix de Paris, because this commitment allows him to have one more week of recovery and preparation since his last outing at Royal Ascot.

Delashay • June 29, 2025 5:06 PM BST
That is one tough horse and you seriously have to wonder why they ran it? Did he shock them a little today?

On that run he’d of been in the top 3 for the GPDP on July 13th.

Delashay • June 29, 2025 5:07 PM BST
And unless we believe that the LION is the number 1 still then the gate is open to Trinity Collage.

Have to laugh Lion In Winter Suppd for the Prix Jean Prat over 7f!

The starting grid for the Prix Jean Prat

but The Lion In Winter (Aidan O'Brien) could well be supplemented on Thursday. [:laugh: Derby Horse!

Delashay • July 2, 2025 6:27 PM BST

ponchoslament • July 2, 2025 6:21 PM BST
Haven’t done the race, but I have given you 6 already

Thanks for the 6! Laugh

Looking back ….

ponchoslament • July 2, 2025 6:50 PM BST
Hmmm maybe, at least you put one up, 20s,  He’s a length behind Tennessee stud
Who was 7 behind Delaquox?? Imagine Moore  will ride dela? Best chance of the 3yo’s ?

And to what you’ve just posted it seems that you had part done the race or made your fancies! ;)

Ditto

Thanks for the 6! And picking the Fav the day before!

Whilst giving a hint that you like Delacroix! Or aren’t sure!

Enjoy fishing for opinions!

The shortie or possibly Ruling Court (to atone).

Jul 1, 2025 -- 12:32PM, ponchoslament wrote:

Ffs, honcho, delahash, dont give up your day jobs, race readers you areCertainly not

I’m doubly glad that you have no time for me!

Jul 2, 2025 -- 11:53AM, ponchoslament wrote:

Couldn’t back any of the 3yo’s In the Eclipse on Saturday?The guineas winner Is 20sAny good race readers on here, fancy any of the 3yosOn Sat ??

We all get things wrong from time to time.  No shame in it.

Oh you stupid boy, is there anyone home I wonder.
I clearly posted couldn’t have tge 3yo before decs came tru with
Anmatt and aqlaam and one other. After decs posted if I had a free 10k
Bet back ombudsman, 100 quid free bet Delacroix

Couldn’t back thé French or have the other 3yo. 1,2, French horse beat
As were other 3yo, also posted before decs thst Moore would ride dela
Both 7s at the time, ok, now please don’t send 25 reply’s, thank you

For delahash thst

Opinions before the race should be encouraged.

Keep going Poncho.

Thanks for the block button we all can read that you said the 3 year olds were shat!

Jul 2, 2025 -- 5:53PM, ponchoslament wrote:

Couldn’t back any of the 3yo’s In the Eclipse on Saturday?The guineas winner Is 20sAny good race readers on here, fancy any of the 3yosOn Sat ??


I’ve seen enough!

And it’s clear that you’re someone else with a gripe against me and Honcho so best get another card out and create another bogus account!

Hopefully writing about races from the fake account gives you a bit of comfort to join the race discussions, where we’re all proven to be right and wrong over the season.

Enjoy your eggs sunshine! No need for sun cream when wearing on your boat race but also a good disguise!

ponchoslament • July 5, 2025 7:28 PM BST
Oh you stupid boy, is there anyone home I wonder.
I clearly posted couldn’t have tge 3yo before decs came tru with
Anmatt and aqlaam

You were hopeful that these soft ground types were going to turn up on good to firm!

Well done poncho.  Always good to see that a poster can take it as well as dish it out. 

Hé does my Gulliver in, I don’t want to be rude, or get into
Crass name calling, but it’s like he has his own set of alternative facts

I actually liked your éntertaining way and solid self confidence in it! It’s better to have an opinion than be getting splinters in the ‘arris like our good leader!

Can’t wait for the minging ginger nut, “I was born on a council estate.”  To give hers!

And if giving and sharing info is an alternative fact I’m not sure I’m read correctly?

You’d said that you don’t know if Sosie would like the Ground. I shared info to the contrary of that general opinion which is held for all French horses.

I also tried telling people that I smelt a rat re: Lion after the Dante, simply because I smelt a rat and don’t like people doing their dough.

Enjoy the rest of the season, it’s flying by sadly and will be a long wait until the next flat.

Delashay • June 29, 2025 5:20 PM BST
Shackleton Ire M.ps. 3 A.    58
DELACROIX IRE M.PS. 3 A.    58 kg
ISAMBARD BRUNEL USA M.PS. 3 a.    58 kg
PUPPET MASTER IRE M.PS. 3 A.    58 kg
SARATOGA IRE M.PS. 3 a.    58 kg
SERIOUS CONTENDER IRE M.PS. 3 a.    58 kg
ROCK OF CASHEL IRE M.PS. 3 a.    58 k
SCANDINAVIA USA M.PS. 3 a.    58 kg
SWAGMAN GER M.PS. 3 A.    58 kg    *
THE LION IN WINTER IRE M.PS. 3 A.    58 kg    **
EVOLUTION IRE M.PS. 3 a.    58 kg    ***
Galveston Gb M.ps. 3 A.    58 kg    ***
LAMBOURN IRE M.PS. 3 A.    58 kg    *
ROOSEVELT GB M.PS. 3 a.    58 kg    **
TRINITY COLLEGE IRE M.PS. 3 A.    58 kg    ***
LIGHT AS AIR IRE M.PS. 3 a.    58 kg    ***
GENEALOGY GB M.PS. 3 a.    58 kg    *
Acapulco Bay Ire M.ps. 3 A.    58 kg    **
Aftermath Ire M.ps. 3 A.    58 kg    ***
Ballet Slippers Ire F.ps. 3 A.    56,5 kg    47.0

Perhaps the last entry is the biggest surprise. Don’t recall him ever doing that!
Puppet Master’s run and ride looked very much in need and Trinty has run in France before.

Five left in the GPDP 3 from AoB

Trinity College
Puppet Master
Galveston
Uther
Frankly Good Cen
New Ground

This was mentioned in the context for the French race this weekend also.

Delashay • June 29, 2025 5:07 PM BST
And unless we believe that the LION is the number 1 still then the gate is open to Trinity Collage.


So they both show, Puppet Master 20/1  I believe to be their Leger Horse but we’ll see.

Jul 1, 2025 -- 10:59AM, Delashay wrote:

Seems you’re quite attached to the horse, can’t see that he isn’t sexy. Is he a sexy breeding prospect? People were saying he’s more for the NH stud.Think he can drop back to 10f? No one has discussed that.

Loyal remember discussing whether Lambourn can drop back to 10f?

Lots have him as a boat, but he was beaten 2 1/4 by Delacroix at Leopardstown first up.

The Guineas winner beaten basically the same in the Eclipse!

Sort of puts a new spin on things?

Trinity College is being clipped into 12/1 for the King George all round with Calandagan hardening as Fav.

From post - Jan Brueghel to spearhead Ballydoyle's King George team - and Aidan O'Brien says high-profile three-year-olds could join the party

Saying that Lambourn could also turn up…

Lambourn would have the same chance of making the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day as the King George at Ascot on 26th July. AOB was clearly bookie-talking!

That was your banker race Impossible wasn’t it? I recall you saying after some non runners and the flat boring you that you’d retreat to eggs all in one basket for the Boxing Day race!

You never did say who your banker was?

Nice to see a bit of humor by the way!

If I was Coolmore I would run Lambourn unless I was really confident that one of my other candidates would beat him.

I would too if the horse is well, hes strong and 11lb is a lot to concede to him. If I’ve got the weight right? There’s  one tiny doubt.
He’s being talked of as a Leger winner and the current fav is a Leger winner! - what is there to fear?

Impossible loves Jan Brugel (that’s fair to say Imp isn’t it?

I’d written this to Impossible from the Arc AP thread.


Delashay • July 10, 2025 11:00 AM BST
It could well be Impossible but you can see why they would trim him, the race looks like cutting up.

As for Lambourn being btn 2¼L Delacroix over 1m 2f doesn’t look so bad now after the Eclipse.

Rulling Court our Guineas winner was beaten 2L
Camillie Pisarro 2 1/4L

In the Eclipse. Dual Group 1 winners.

It shows his run over a trip too short (seen as a Leger horse and current Fav) in a different light.

As Tom Seagul said (for himself as in “We” - as my mind was open)  ,“ We wrote off the Classic generation too early - now they're starting to show what they can do…”

The warning came not so much with Whirl winning but with Windlord thumping CheckandChallenge the day before the Eclipse.

I have thoughts on him (Lambourn) Loyal Hocho raised a good point here also.

No one’s been able to say why an old boat (which seems the perception of Lambourn) was able to get so close to an Eclipse winner over an inadequate trip?

I’m not a huge fan of the horse it must be said and am playing devil’s advocate slightly, his, name, his breeding isn’t sexy, nor his run style, as said here too - but I’m wary of tagging him as an out and out plodder.

For me Jan Bruelgal was ridden to beat Calandgan, the latter broke his group 1 duck last time in a weak race. The filly Aventure was his main rival. Here he’ll take on colts and have to give them weight yet he isn’t a shatbrickhouse himself. Cumani has never been impressed with his stature and she’s been surprised by his engine.

On Calandagan re King George

Increased race-fitness, a better understanding between the horse and his new rider, an understanding of how Ballydoyle's tactics exploited his tendency to start slowly at Epsom and a quicker surface were all pointed to as reasons to be optimistic. Given just half a length separated the pair at Epsom, any one of them could be enough.

Somewhat over the top impossible.  Time will tell I suppose but for me they should forget everything bar the St Leger for Lambourn.

LH, is that because you don't rate this years 3yo stayers. Lambourn is clearly the best of those.

I do not have a banker for the King George at Kempton. However, I do like Fact To File. I think he's made for the race. He was outstayed by Galopin Des Champs, and unlikely to usurp Inothewayurthinkin either in the Gold Cup.

As for the King George & QE2 at Ascot I like Jan Brueghel as I firmly believe he's AOB's best 12f horse. But, he's quirky and needs strong handling. I also think he's the best of theirs for The Arc at Longchamp. Bankers? Both are not.

Impossible, you were putting him up as their gold cup
Horse after ascot?? Hmmmm??

Sry sage, don’t quite get your point.
Mine is that I don’t see him winning below 12f or a King George and feel stamina is his main asset.
Could be wrong of course.