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Softer the better
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41 winners from 366 bets, showing a profit of 29.81 points to Bfsp.
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Going off with a chance at say 12/1 or less is 39 winners from 214 runners and a profit at Bfsp of 38.99 points.
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i didn't do stats but i was looking into it last night
first thing that was noticeable for winners over 12f was that the dam had a clear distance pedigree and if it had raced it had done well over 12f plus second thing that i saw was that most of the wins for progeny were in lower grades of racing, think there was only one gp1 success but i didn't go back that far last thing that stood out for most of those attempting and doing well over 12f plus, were they were 4-5 yrs rather than 3, generally they were multiple winners only other minor point was night of thunder was a dubawi colt and dubawi obviously ran on at one pace from 2 out in his derby having been settled ok and eased into contention, wouldn't say he didn't get home but lost 2nd on the run in and the winner was moving away with ease night of thunder skipped the derby and tried 1m2f at sandown and they never went beyond a mile after that attempt (8/9) desert flowers dam is from a northern dancer line, danzig, hardspun and then i gave up but i sort of think maybe there until 2 out and perhaps gets nailed but it's a 50-50, not sure i'd back it at that price, might lay at the mile if there's a fight on gl backers |
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was watching it back, i'm not sure whether it just didn't quite get home and it's a really good animal which kept it there, or if it didn't like the track, seemed to be coming off the bridle maybe 4 out but stayed on steadily
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Did she ever travel as if she was the best horse in the race? She's increased the margin over Elwateen, but unfortunately, as the market suggested, that has run a nothing race. Then you wonder how good a race this was? My guess would be pretty average. I would say she is long odds on to drop back, but you then have to wonder if the early superiority she had is already on the wane.
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be amazed if they didn't drop back, yes
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