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Staking Plans
Celtic warrior
Celtic warrior
10 Dec 24 11:03
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Date Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 2,811 | Blogger: Celtic warrior's blog
Interested to know what different plans people use. I would assume mostly level stakes.

Tom Ainslie mentions the following in his seminal book: Ainslie's Complete Guide To Thoroughbred Racing:

Start with a base level, say £10 as your standard bet. Your next bet will be the standard £10 plus the square root of any cumulative profit.

So say first bet loses, 2nd bet will be £10 again. If that 2nd bet then wins @ say 4-1 **** profit is then +£30, so next bet will be £25+5.50 = £30.50 and so onwards.
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Replies: 20
By:
FOYLESWAR When: 10 Dec 24 11:05
interesting ,as i can never seem to get staking right ,will give this some thought thanks
By:
top2rated When: 10 Dec 24 11:09
    Aim        Odds        Stake        Result        PTR        Acc P/L   
    5.00        2        2.50        1        5.00        5.00   
    5.00        6        0.83        1        5.00        10.00   
    5.00        4        1.25        0        6.25        8.75   
    11.25        9        1.25        1        5.00        20.00   
    5.00        11        0.45        0        5.45        19.55   
    10.45        12        0.87        0        11.33        18.67   
    16.33        11        1.48        1        5.00        35.00   
    5.00        7        0.71        1        5.00        40.00   
    5.00        6        0.83        1        5.00        45.00   
    5.00        10        0.50        0        5.50        44.50   
    10.50        9        1.17        0        11.67        43.33   
    16.67        9        1.85        0        18.52        41.48   
    23.52        5        4.70        0        28.22        36.78   
    33.22        12        2.77        1        5.00        70.00   
    5.00        6        0.83        1        5.00        75.00   
    5.00        6        0.83        1        5.00        80.00   
    5.00        4        1.25        0        6.25        78.75   
    11.25        10        1.13        1        5.00        90.00   
    5.00        11        0.45        1        5.00        95.00   
    5.00        5        1.00        0        6.00        94.00   
    11.00        7        1.57        0        12.57        92.43   
    17.57        7        2.51        1        5.00        110.00   
    5.00        8        0.63        0        5.63        109.38   
    10.63        3        3.54        0        14.17        105.83   
    19.17        8        2.40        0        21.56        103.44   
    26.56        5        5.31        1        5.00        130.00   
    5.00        4        1.25        1        5.00        135.00   
    5.00        11        0.45        0        5.45        134.55   
    10.45        4        2.61        0        13.07        131.93   
    18.07        4        4.52        0        22.59        127.41   
    27.59        6        4.60        1        5.00        155.00   
By:
Celtic warrior When: 10 Dec 24 11:22
Tops, whats your formula?
By:
Latalomne When: 10 Dec 24 11:27
If they're legit numbers, T2R should be using a different staking method entirely!  90pts LSP from 31 bets, from a quick tally up?
By:
mrcombustible When: 10 Dec 24 11:45
Don't use them
I put on as much as I feel confident about my selection, sometimes back 2 in a race and do forecasts and tricasts
By:
TameTheTiger When: 10 Dec 24 11:57
i make it +77 off 31 bets. 248% ROI. almost impossible numbers to achieve.
By:
TameTheTiger When: 10 Dec 24 12:03
with those results level stakes betting would suffice. how does the staking perform if a loss at level stakes occurs ?
By:
FOYLESWAR When: 10 Dec 24 12:08
same here mrc no real staking plan and do the odd rf/casts now and then ........maybe i am a greedy b,stard but it always feels i didnt have enough on when or if i hit a winner .
By:
geoff m When: 10 Dec 24 12:10
and too much on the losers no doubt FoylesLaugh. as we all do.
By:
FOYLESWAR When: 10 Dec 24 12:35
yeah thats about it geoff!
By:
Latalomne When: 10 Dec 24 12:38

Dec 10, 2024 -- 11:57AM, TameTheTiger wrote:


i make it +77 off 31 bets. 248% ROI. almost impossible numbers to achieve.


Thanks, TTT, I might have duplicated a winner and a missed a loser or two when scrolling.

By:
TameTheTiger When: 10 Dec 24 13:19
odds 6 ive calculated as 5/1 etc
By:
top2rated When: 10 Dec 24 14:23
The table I posted earlier was lifted from a spreadsheet made donkey's years ago that I came across accidentally on an old memory stick the other day.

It's based on the staking plan in the 'Dawson System' which was advertised in the old Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book.  The 'Aim' was to win 5pts each race and retrieving the previously lost stake(s).

I've used Open Office Calc for the spreadsheet and in this one I've used the random function to generate the 'Odds' (between 2 and 12) and the 'Result' (between 0 and 1).

Here are the formulas (they may differ if using Excel) as requested by Celtic warrior...

    Aim        Odds        Stake        Result        PTR        Acc P/L   
    5.00        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B2/D2        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H2=0;B2+F2;5)        =IF(H2=0;-F2;D2*F2)   
    =IF(H2=0;J2+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B3/D3        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H3=0;B3+F3;5)        =IF(H3=0;L2-F3;L2+(D3*F3))   
    =IF(H3=0;J3+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B4/D4        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H4=0;B4+F4;5)        =IF(H4=0;L3-F4;L3+(D4*F4))   
    =IF(H4=0;J4+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B5/D5        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H5=0;B5+F5;5)        =IF(H5=0;L4-F5;L4+(D5*F5))   
    =IF(H5=0;J5+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B6/D6        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H6=0;B6+F6;5)        =IF(H6=0;L5-F6;L5+(D6*F6))   
    =IF(H6=0;J6+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B7/D7        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H7=0;B7+F7;5)        =IF(H7=0;L6-F7;L6+(D7*F7))   
    =IF(H7=0;J7+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B8/D8        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H8=0;B8+F8;5)        =IF(H8=0;L7-F8;L7+(D8*F8))   
    =IF(H8=0;J8+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B9/D9        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H9=0;B9+F9;5)        =IF(H9=0;L8-F9;L8+(D9*F9))   
    =IF(H9=0;J9+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B10/D10        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H10=0;B10+F10;5)        =IF(H10=0;L9-F10;L9+(D10*F10))   
    =IF(H10=0;J10+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B11/D11        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H11=0;B11+F11;5)        =IF(H11=0;L10-F11;L10+(D11*F11))   
    =IF(H11=0;J11+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B12/D12        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H12=0;B12+F12;5)        =IF(H12=0;L11-F12;L11+(D12*F12))   
    =IF(H12=0;J12+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B13/D13        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H13=0;B13+F13;5)        =IF(H13=0;L12-F13;L12+(D13*F13))   
    =IF(H13=0;J13+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B14/D14        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H14=0;B14+F14;5)        =IF(H14=0;L13-F14;L13+(D14*F14))   
    =IF(H14=0;J14+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B15/D15        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H15=0;B15+F15;5)        =IF(H15=0;L14-F15;L14+(D15*F15))   
    =IF(H15=0;J15+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B16/D16        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H16=0;B16+F16;5)        =IF(H16=0;L15-F16;L15+(D16*F16))   
    =IF(H16=0;J16+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B17/D17        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H17=0;B17+F17;5)        =IF(H17=0;L16-F17;L16+(D17*F17))   
    =IF(H17=0;J17+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B18/D18        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H18=0;B18+F18;5)        =IF(H18=0;L17-F18;L17+(D18*F18))   
    =IF(H18=0;J18+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B19/D19        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)        =IF(H19=0;B19+F19;5)        =IF(H19=0;L18-F19;L18+(D19*F19))   
    =IF(H19=0;J19+5;5)        =RANDBETWEEN(2;12)        =B20/D20        =RANDBETWEEN(0;1)   
By:
Celtic warrior When: 10 Dec 24 14:36
Tops that sounds like a dangerous martingale-type system to me
By:
Celtic warrior When: 10 Dec 24 14:36
Tops that sounds like a dangerous martingale-type system to me
By:
Celtic warrior When: 10 Dec 24 14:36
Tops that sounds like a dangerous martingale-type system to me
By:
Tiger Tiger When: 10 Dec 24 14:41
The square root staking plan was developed by a guy named James Selvidge in a book titled "Money Management". Square root betting is - your base bet PLUS the square root of any bank profit but only while the bank is in profit.

If it falls below your starting point, the bet is always reverted to the base bet level

An example of it is here for anyone interested, in dollars but its all the same! :


https://www.racerate.com/Square_Root_Demo.pdf
By:
TameTheTiger When: 10 Dec 24 14:41
what would the stakes be after 10 losers at odds 4.0
By:
Facts When: 12 Dec 24 11:43
The true test of any plan to make a long term profit is bet level stakes.
Start with a bank sufficient to cover 100 consecutive losers. Stakes doubled when bank has doubled.
By:
fairweather When: 12 Dec 24 12:40
Yes, if your selections don’t make a profit at level stakes, no fancy staking plan is going to change that.
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