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I don't know what anyone else's thoughts are but I think the market has this wrong.
In my opinion there is no way that one big bang should be favourite.
The race will surely lie between hymac and kruger park.
Personally I think Harry' frys horse could well beat them all. The only issue is I am.not a fan of horses coming back over hurdles after chasing . However he has very few miles on the clock, only had a couple of chase runs so his jumping technique won't be too affected and the trainer has a good record over c and d and if the ground is heavy as forecasted then Hymac will relish conditions and if it turns into a war of attrition as it could well do, then I expect Hymac to outstay them all in the slog to the line.
Personally I'm going to back the Nicholls beast as well as I can't see the winner coming from anything other than these two.
Id be interested to hear anyone else's opinions ? Good luck whatever you choose to do.
In my opinion there is no way that one big bang should be favourite.
The race will surely lie between hymac and kruger park.
Personally I think Harry' frys horse could well beat them all. The only issue is I am.not a fan of horses coming back over hurdles after chasing . However he has very few miles on the clock, only had a couple of chase runs so his jumping technique won't be too affected and the trainer has a good record over c and d and if the ground is heavy as forecasted then Hymac will relish conditions and if it turns into a war of attrition as it could well do, then I expect Hymac to outstay them all in the slog to the line.
Personally I'm going to back the Nicholls beast as well as I can't see the winner coming from anything other than these two.
Id be interested to hear anyone else's opinions ? Good luck whatever you choose to do.
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At the time you posted Hymac was either fav or joint fav, napped Kruger Park last night based on his form at Uttox where he ran over the same C&D as One Big Bang the same day. His time was quicker than One Big Bang on heavy ground so todays ground is not an issue. The only question is fitness and the Nicholls horses maybe needing a run, all being equal he should win, good luck.
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You may well pick the winner oneten out of the pair you're considering but your far stronger view seems to be that OBB will be 3rd choice at best.
So to me you've talked yourself into either reversing the f/c for probably trebling your total outlay or laying OBB in the two place market. Good luck mate whatever the play  |
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Thanks Hayden. Yes fc might be the way to go. Are you playing in this race ?
The prob for me would be sods law OBB comes second and then I would lose... I would rather bank what I see as sure |
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I don't know what happened there but half my post was deleted !
I just went on to say that I wouldn't want to rely on anything to be 2nd on this ground as I see them being strung out like the proverbial washing . Could well be 15L apart with some crying enough and pulling up. So I would rather take what I see as sure fire profit rather than speculate. I see others must be in agreement as OBB has now drifted from 2.6 out to 3rd fav. |
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Yes drifted for sure , i've binned the race but will watch with interest
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Nicholls stable not firing on all cylinders yet but still finding the odd winner, everything looks good for Kruger Park imo, trip and ground look ideal. I agree with you about One Big Bang who seems short enough in the betting.
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I appreciate that it's not to everyone's taste, it's far from race of the day material, but I find it an intriguing little puzzle.
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CagliariG 30 Oct 24 11:31
At the time you posted Hymac was either fav or joint fav, napped Kruger Park last night pmsl tailed off. |
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Profit's profit oneten , well done
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Thanks Hayden. Happy enough with that. Safety first sometimes :)
Except for OBB being the fly in the ointment, pleasing to see the distances were 30L and 50L and a PU. |
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well done 1. 10
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Am I missing something here. ? Op has done his dosh ( along with me ) if backing the Nicholls horse. ??
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He backed both Glasgow.
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oneten 30 Oct 24 09:49
Personally I'm going to back the Nicholls beast as well as I can't see the winner coming from anything other than these two. It would appear so, glasgow. |
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... Ah, OK.
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If he backed both to win then he won nothing but who knows what he did.
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Sparrow = Clueless
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Explain the winning bet then piccadilly instead of stupid insults.
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Tennner each @ S/P returns £26.25.
Profit. |
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2 points out 3 points back (2/1+ was easier enough to get on the machine before the off) so +1 point but even at SP +0.6pt
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What a load of old nonsense spending all this time debating on a 2/7 winning bet. Dear oh dear.
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I play 2 a race often, OK maybe not at those of prices (playing at odds on) but its a good method to add to your betting strategy.
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Eh? I've seen you playing in the place markets at odds on. What a sausage!
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It's pretty clear what he's done and self explanatory , instead of laying OBB he's decided to back the other front two and pray neither of the two rags cause a surprise , so like whippin says he's backed a couple of approximate 2/1 shots so makes 50% over his outlay , probably around 4/9 at the prices available to him before much of the OBB drift in reality.
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You have seen nothing of my bets idiot.
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Oh come on Hayden it's just crumbs off the table stuff and spending all that time how he came to this wonderful conclusion even considering a forecast. Talk about much ado about nothing. A ridiculous thread.
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I've seen you put up "this is good for a place" at odds on and of course being PRE RACE it sunk without trace.
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You have seen nothing at all as I do not bet odds on in the place markets.
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No opinion either way sparrow , my only input was to state it was pretty evident he backed two horses in the race.
Probably incorrect to knock the thread as if someone started a thread and stated they had a 9/4 lay i can't imagine anyone would have too much of an issue with that , this is effectively the same thing by backing both dangers. None of my business how punters choose to conjure profit sparrow , each to their own |
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Apologies as I didn't mean to cause a furore.
Sparrow, I never considered a forecast. Hayden kindly suggested it as a possible better return and I politely disagreed, and put my reasons against it being a good bet succinctly as I thought it a risky strategy and gave my idea of the distances due to the going. I believe I gave an accurate write up re the winner - most of my original post was giving reasoning as to why I thought Hymac would win and I went on to say I would also back the Nicholls beast as I thought the winner had to be one of the two. At the time of posting OBB was 6/4 fav and hymac and kruger were 9/4 apiece. So yes , my return was odds on but as I said in my post to hayden, "I saw the best as a sure fire winner." Normally I put up suggestions on here in 7 to 10/1 range but as I believed the original favourite to be the wrong price it gave some value in taking him on. OBB could have shortened , gone off favourite and won , but it didn't and that was the point of my post, the market was wrong. My post was accurate and I won some money. Sorry if that upsets people , but unlike some of the aftertimers on here I thought I would share my thoughts pre race . No worries, I won't bother again. |
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I don't want to argue with anyone on here ,
but this is a horse racing forum after all , and years ago people used to discuss a race before it happened and the merits of a horses chances. Looking at the forums front page now, there are just 3 posts relating to a race before it happened. I don't wish to sound patronising but well done Foyles and Jimxy. Far more interesting to discuss racing than 100s of posts slagging off jockey "x" or trainer "y" after the event. Any idiot can do that. I like to chat horses and racing with people that have an opinion. |
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You shouldn't have to apologize for posting a winning thread oneten , you should keep posting for those who can take the thread for what it is , in this instance a profitable one.
Good luck mate |
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Tbf the market was wrong but as said in my post the prices when you posted had Hymac as joint or outright fav @ 7/4 depending on the bookie, the other 2 were 15/8 at the time, again depending on the bookie unless you are quoting exchange prices?
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oneten, I want to apologise for my remarks regarding your thoughts on the 2pm race as I was out of order after getting involved with the debate. I do hope you can accept my apology and continue to use the forum.
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Thanks Hayden. I value it when someone like yourself who I consider a judge comes on a thread and voices their opinion as we all make mistakes and can miss things sometimes.
We are all playing with real money and it's interesting to hear others take on a race. That's decent of you sparrow, apology accepted, thank you. Enjoy your evenings. |
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Thank you, oneten. Best of luck for the future.
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