shortest price you will do e/w

even money can be value EW under the right circs. And back in the day got shop managers thinking you were a complete mug.

2/1 perfectly acceptable in the right shape / math's of race as if you can interpret the place part as a given you get 16/5 for your 2/1 shot using risk vs profit , in that example the 1.4 for a bookies place would be probably available around 1.12 or less on the exchange given the choice of race.

There are a million examples of when e/way can and should be be applied in the right circumstances but 98% of punters won't even know those opportunities exist , ignorance is bliss   

Sorry Dave posted before reading yours

dave1357, what are those circumstances?

In that example swifty imagine what you could do with a handful of similar shaped races on a busy race card day , it's compounding an over broke as opposed to the traditionally accepted multiple value depreciation involving over round.

Hayden 2-1 fine, but dave was suggesting evens, I'd agree in multiples maybe but singles when they're odds against to win in actual terms, I can only see a theoretical 5 runner race with 2 evens shots and 20s bar the 2 paying a 1/4 odds as the only way it would be worth it, those races must come round once a year.

i used to back 2nd favourites in maidens, where there was a short price fav, all prices down to 3/1 back in the day.

Must admit swifty can't think of a time i ever select my own horses in those types of scenario's , the horses pick you so selections are a no brainer.

In my experience if your win bets lose in the long run so will your place bets. If your win bets

show a profit you don't need the e/w bet.

If your usual win level stake is £100. What stake do you apply on an ew bet ?
Half the stake ie £50 ew or £100 ew ?

rograin , with respect mate you seem a pretty one-dimensional punter ( not a criticism just an observation ) and have missed the main point as to what the thread is all about.


Good luck guys   

swiftynifty • October 14, 2024 7:25 PM BST
dave1357, what are those circumstances?

8 runner job evs fav, 6s bar. You might find that the evs is 11/10 on here and the normal "dirty" picks are twice the price.

I haven't missed the point at all Hayden. Basically I'm saying e/w betting is pointless.

How are you getting 16/5 for a 2/1 shot backing E/W?

roggrain is saying that if he had an offer of £2 for £1 and an offer of £3 for £1, he just take the first one.

hayden, i agree the make up of the whole market make the e/w multiples the play, there are 3-1 shots that are 5s on to be placed ,others are a genuine 0.6 to place chance, maidens v. handicaps usually as you say.

Fair enough rograin , if you think e/way betting is pointless we'd better leave it at that.

Good punting mate   

penzance , read again and take on board the assumption of it being placed at probably around 1.12 in this example   

Have to say you've bamboozled me there with 16/5.
2/1 Wnr 1/4 odds E/W returns 5/4.
Plc only

Roggrain.  What the e.w.bet allows you to do (in maybe a dozen bets per year ) is increase substantially
your stake. Occasionally you can find bets which cannot be out of the first three.Because of the safety net
the place part,instead of having say 50.00 win,you could have 250.00 e.w.Thus increasing your profit.
Of course you could lose the lot,bur over a series of bets,this shoud not happen.

Yep, bookies don't normally do plaice only.

With very good reason.

25/1 never less hence on average twice a year.

Don't have an unbreakable rule but as I only bet on here, the place bet is separate so don't really bet e/w. I try not to bet place only at less than evens.

Back odds on shots e/w regularly, like this one for example:

https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Beverley/14-August-2024/1445

Only question is, is it value? Never back the second or third fav in bad e/w races, you'll soon be closed down. Fav on the other hand they're often glad to oblige and it's a lot easier to get on.

No doubt they would be happy to oblige ew on odds on, most would send a limo to take you to a shop of your choice!!

10/1 ,  i sometimes back the win part with the books and have the place part on here 4 places ,if i am feeling more confident ill do both ew with the books normally 3 places and betfair  sp win and places.

Your reasoning is sensible Foyles as you are always looking for a profit even if only placed whereas I also look at the place part as a form of insurance against the win stake so even 5/2 sometimes acceptable.

Odds on and unplaced...wonder if Joe Lumpton any of 'em?

only one of them looks like a bad ew race, so I doubt it

CagliariG • October 15, 2024 10:22 AM BST
No doubt they would be happy to oblige ew on odds on, most would send a limo to take you to a shop of your choice!!

surprising that a man with a £600k system doesn't understand why EW odds on might be an ok bet

odds  ew might be a bet  in some cases dave ,i must say i have never explored it to be honest but each to their own ,i am comfortable with the 10/1 but others as pointed out on here are happy to play at much shorter odds ,if they can make it pay then i cant fault there methods .

Like £100 ew @ 4/7 Dave as Lampton thinks? Stake £200 return £111.43 if only placed as opposed to £200 stake win @ 4/7 returns £268.47 = profit £68.57, a loss of £88.57 for the place instead of a further potential loss of £11.43 on the win?

Makes a lot of sense IYO, btw probably why I never had to sell my method or had to use it whilst mugs like you are skint!! HTH

BTW Foyles, I would love some of my clients to be like Dave and Lampton, would need fewer for more profit!!

ffs glentobymug hasn't got the slightest clue how to work out the expected value of a bet.

not really a surprise, after all he thinks a screenprint is taking a photo of your computer

Where is the value in guaranteed loss Dave? Feel free to explain why after making a book for 30 years this has escaped me?

if you don't know how to work out the expected value of a bet, there isn't any point explaining

I just did it for you but your not very sharp are you!!! e.g for the sake of less than £12 you think it is better to put £100 on a 4/7 to place and return that amount as opposed to putting the £200 to win and only losing that same amount if beaten?

as said i dont play at short odds so wont get involved in something i know little about but guys lets not resort to name calling and falling out . how do you come to the conclusion a certain horse iss a value price ?

you didn't and you don't know how to work out the expected value of a bet

Try selling tenners for a fiver Dave, you will probably last longer!! HTH Ce Vediamo cagino!!

Dave gets it, I get it. My experience of all this is that it's pointless trying to explain all this to others who never will. I'll try here on that one I highlighted.

Was 4/7 to win so 4/35 (1.114) the place. That was the SP. Likely "true price" the win is around 8/13. In this case I'd say the "true" place odds should be nearer 1.07. so if the race was ran 100 times:

It'd win 62% of the time.
Be placed 94 % of the time (so 32% place only).
Be unplaced 6% of the time.

So backing £100 win at SP would return a 57% profit 62% of the time and a 100% loss 38% of the time which equates to a loss of 2.66% over time.

Backing £100 e/w would be -2.66% on the win part (as above).
The place part would be 94% chance of an 11.4% profit equating to an expected return of +4.71%
Combining both gives a positive expected return of 2.05%

Thank the Lord for Google Translate..

how do you come to the conclusion a certain horse iss a value price ?  different entirely

For the sake of this discussion let's imagine a 1/2 shot that's 1.51 on the exchange to win and 1.05 to place (due to race shape). Over the longterm that bet will show a loss on the win side and a win (that covers the win loss) on the place side.

didn't see your post, joe.

The point as you well know Dave is that in that example where it went of at 4/7 you still try to beat the SP. FWIW I backed that one at 4/6 and backed it win only as well. How to read what'll go off shorter is the entire key of winning long term. I'm just saying it's better to back 4/6 shots that go off at 4/7 than 3/1 into 9/4. I never back the night before or at early prices just in the half hour or so before the off. Don't want to draw attention to what you're doing. Of course I'd love to back at early prices but they'll soon close you down.

Crikey you look away to watch the World Series Baseball and come back to find this lot , hoped before reopening the thread there'd be some friendly & constructive posts debating both sides of each way choices , however      

Toptr
I'm thinking your mate in the photo must be a one-dimensional punter who's never worked in the industry and writes his stake and bet type on his betting slip before making his selection , if you apply any worthwhile criteria to bad e/way races mate you only end up with two choices in either using the selection that jumps in your face or not having a bet on the race , you certainly wouldn't be needing the racing post.

penzance
I owe you an explanation regarding the 16/5 post from yesterday so i'll mail you later with details   

Foyles
Unless it can be mathematically proven i've never thought the word value other than a posh word for a personal opinion , one mans value is another mans lay that's how the exchange partly exists , reckon the vast majority using the word value are just voicing their personal opinion which magically is then perceived as value , so if someone fancies a 4/1 shot then tell others you think it should be 3/1 so the personal opinion is explained away.


Good luck today all   

Hayden - I usually agree with much of what you say - but I'd take issue when you say value is "subjective" or is just an opinion or is in the eye of the beholder. Even worse are the people that say you can't eat value.

Of course you actually can eat it, if you want to.

Pre-event: If you've bet at a value price - you will have the option to take (lock-in) a small profit before the event starts.
Pre-Event: If you've failed to achieve a value price - you will have the option to take (lock-in) a small loss before the event starts.

The result is immaterial in both those scenarios - but one scenario always wins, the other always loses - the end result P&L would be about the same for both if all bets were actually left to run (just with a bit more variance). One would still win (long term) and the other would still lose (long-term).

So value can be measured. Over a large sample size by looking at your lifetime profit/loss or over a very small sample size (like just one event) via what I have described above.

So the people that say you can't eat value are wrong. They would be correct to say some "bad value" bets still win and some "good value" bets still lose. But value is objective imo, not subjective.

Surely depends on your selection criteria? If your main reason for a selection is the breeder or pedigree or owner of a first time out maiden you are basing your selection on experience and years of study but the horse in question could be anything from a plater to a Group horse. The market often helps to confirm your judgement but not always.

Fair enough TM but we're probably at slightly cross purposes , i was clumsily referring largely to race by race punters and in particular ones who look to the same dimension relentlessly.
In fact i'd agree you can eat value for sure over a long enough sample size so no debate there , going back my previous example used in the past i wouldn't toss a coin for £100k at 5/4 but asked to toss 100 times at 5/4 at a grand a pop i'd grab it with both hands.
Majority would totally disagree with that coin flip scenario i'm sure but we can all view things slightly differently even being on the same page.
To express a personal view i'd probably be better off describing the term value as an often overused or misused word instead of trying to dissect it.

Forget explaining " Value" Hayden, the most overused and inaccurate description of a bet ever used, like beauty being in the eye of the beholder. How many times have we seen "Got the value though" on a loser? There is no value if there is no profit at the end, e.g Quixall has stated "I will bet if evens but not 10/11"?