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https://x.com/icyestretro/status/1843265187345760760
Charity Begins at Home, But You Won’t Find It in the Formbook
Does this mean we won't be living in a cardboard box next week? My ex, too scared to watch the race with me, cowered in the kitchen as I cheered the last leg of a Trixie coming in from some godforsaken place—probably Meydan. Punting is a wild rollercoaster, with highs and misery that are really only for professionals—and I use that term very loosely.
Ylang Ylang ran terribly. We, as punters, can’t control the track; we can only go by what we see and the logic we apply. I’ll admit, I was dead wrong—my eyes deceived me. But getting a price double the SP buffers you from mistakes. Now, let’s never speak of her again.
The Cesarewitch is a race of extreme punting interest, offering a unique test over 2 miles and 2 furlongs that most horses lack the stamina to handle. This year’s betting list is intriguing. At the top of the market is a horse that won a hurdle race at Listowel after two years off for Willie. Then there’s the usual Emmet Mullins plunge horse in every handicap, despite him being an ordinary day-to-day trainer. Also included is a Gavin Cromwell bumper horse that ran with credit in the Irish Cesarewitch. Even The Shunter, a has-been of a horse, gets a 10/1 quote after this morning’s forfeit stage.
By the time you get to the horses priced 14/1, your Spidey punting senses should be firing off—this market is a complete guess up. The odds compilers seem too busy updating Instagram, stressing over who to make captain in their fantasy football, or diving into Lar Corbett’s autobiography.
It’s perfectly fine to be wrong as a punter, but you must do so at a price. That doesn’t mean backing random outsiders—it’s about finding upside that outweighs the downside. The Cesarewitch offers a perfect example of this, and importantly, I’m making this point before the event. I don’t do after-dinner speaking; no punter makes money that way.
Now, I don’t know about you, but even if I were playing Football Manager while employed by a bookmaker to manage odds, I’d still like to think I’d give enough of a **** to notice that a Galway Hurdle second probably shouldn’t be sitting at 20/1 for the Newmarket Cesarewitch.
Ndwaai started this season at Royal Ascot and ran with credit. Rather than paraphrasing, I'll let Mark Brown of the Racing Post summarise his performance: "Ndwaai was stopped in his run against the rail before fading. He has potential from his mark, probably over 2m."
His next entry in the formbook is an excellent second to Nurburgring in the Galway Hurdle, no less. The winner, who went on to be given a stones of a ride, finished 4th in the Irish Cesarewitch. As Alan Sweetman of the Racing Post concluded: "Ndwaai underlined the merits of last season's Irish juvenile crop by taking the runner-up spot. Unlike the winner, he had already been exposed to the demands of handicap company, having finished third behind Nurburgring’s stablemate Lark In The Morning in the Boodles. In common with the winner, he had run on the Flat since the end of last jumps season. His seventh place in the Ascot Stakes indicates he could win a good prize on the Flat at around two miles."
What’s missing? Well, you’ll find it here but not in the formbook—Ndwaai bolted up in a Charity Race on July 21st. Megan O’Leary was as motionless (or should that be emotionless) as a Ryanair stewardess when your carry-on bag is 1lb overweight and you're being asked for €50.
Now take their Flat credentials in isolation. Gordon Elliott trains both Samui and Ndwaai, who are entered in the same race on Saturday. Samui is rated 102 after six runs on the level for Elliott, but one suspects he’s perhaps missed the boat to win a big prize. Conversely, Ndwaai, a better hurdler, has only had one run for Elliott on the Flat (six in Britain for Andrew Balding), but he’s rated just 93. If this logic holds, you’re looking at serious value in the market. As punters, it’s our job to think about prices in this way—don’t just assume that the prices are based on logic; sometimes they are just wrong.
This is a horse on a steep upward curve. He runs off 93, a mark he was unlucky not to contend with at Royal Ascot. He’s finished second in a Galway Hurdle and has a sneaky win in a charity race on the bridle. What price is he for Newmarket, you ask? 10/1? 12/1? Maybe 16/1? No—he’s now 20/1. The odds compilers must be stuck in Chapter 11 of Lar Corbett’s autobiography, where he scored a hat-trick in the 2010 All-Ireland final against Kilkenny. It’s time to wake them up.
Let’s get hypothetical: Samui (126 hurdles) versus Ndwaai (136 hurdles). If Samui had to give Ndwaai 9lbs over hurdles, where would your money land? Well, that's what you’ll face at Newmarket. One’s 20/1, the other 20/1. Do the math.
Recommendation:
Newmarket Cesarewitch October 12th
Take 20/1 or bigger—at these odds, Ndwaai remains daylight robbery for the Newmarket Cesarewitch. Wake up the compilers before they regret
Charity Begins at Home, But You Won’t Find It in the Formbook
Does this mean we won't be living in a cardboard box next week? My ex, too scared to watch the race with me, cowered in the kitchen as I cheered the last leg of a Trixie coming in from some godforsaken place—probably Meydan. Punting is a wild rollercoaster, with highs and misery that are really only for professionals—and I use that term very loosely.
Ylang Ylang ran terribly. We, as punters, can’t control the track; we can only go by what we see and the logic we apply. I’ll admit, I was dead wrong—my eyes deceived me. But getting a price double the SP buffers you from mistakes. Now, let’s never speak of her again.
The Cesarewitch is a race of extreme punting interest, offering a unique test over 2 miles and 2 furlongs that most horses lack the stamina to handle. This year’s betting list is intriguing. At the top of the market is a horse that won a hurdle race at Listowel after two years off for Willie. Then there’s the usual Emmet Mullins plunge horse in every handicap, despite him being an ordinary day-to-day trainer. Also included is a Gavin Cromwell bumper horse that ran with credit in the Irish Cesarewitch. Even The Shunter, a has-been of a horse, gets a 10/1 quote after this morning’s forfeit stage.
By the time you get to the horses priced 14/1, your Spidey punting senses should be firing off—this market is a complete guess up. The odds compilers seem too busy updating Instagram, stressing over who to make captain in their fantasy football, or diving into Lar Corbett’s autobiography.
It’s perfectly fine to be wrong as a punter, but you must do so at a price. That doesn’t mean backing random outsiders—it’s about finding upside that outweighs the downside. The Cesarewitch offers a perfect example of this, and importantly, I’m making this point before the event. I don’t do after-dinner speaking; no punter makes money that way.
Now, I don’t know about you, but even if I were playing Football Manager while employed by a bookmaker to manage odds, I’d still like to think I’d give enough of a **** to notice that a Galway Hurdle second probably shouldn’t be sitting at 20/1 for the Newmarket Cesarewitch.
Ndwaai started this season at Royal Ascot and ran with credit. Rather than paraphrasing, I'll let Mark Brown of the Racing Post summarise his performance: "Ndwaai was stopped in his run against the rail before fading. He has potential from his mark, probably over 2m."
His next entry in the formbook is an excellent second to Nurburgring in the Galway Hurdle, no less. The winner, who went on to be given a stones of a ride, finished 4th in the Irish Cesarewitch. As Alan Sweetman of the Racing Post concluded: "Ndwaai underlined the merits of last season's Irish juvenile crop by taking the runner-up spot. Unlike the winner, he had already been exposed to the demands of handicap company, having finished third behind Nurburgring’s stablemate Lark In The Morning in the Boodles. In common with the winner, he had run on the Flat since the end of last jumps season. His seventh place in the Ascot Stakes indicates he could win a good prize on the Flat at around two miles."
What’s missing? Well, you’ll find it here but not in the formbook—Ndwaai bolted up in a Charity Race on July 21st. Megan O’Leary was as motionless (or should that be emotionless) as a Ryanair stewardess when your carry-on bag is 1lb overweight and you're being asked for €50.
Now take their Flat credentials in isolation. Gordon Elliott trains both Samui and Ndwaai, who are entered in the same race on Saturday. Samui is rated 102 after six runs on the level for Elliott, but one suspects he’s perhaps missed the boat to win a big prize. Conversely, Ndwaai, a better hurdler, has only had one run for Elliott on the Flat (six in Britain for Andrew Balding), but he’s rated just 93. If this logic holds, you’re looking at serious value in the market. As punters, it’s our job to think about prices in this way—don’t just assume that the prices are based on logic; sometimes they are just wrong.
This is a horse on a steep upward curve. He runs off 93, a mark he was unlucky not to contend with at Royal Ascot. He’s finished second in a Galway Hurdle and has a sneaky win in a charity race on the bridle. What price is he for Newmarket, you ask? 10/1? 12/1? Maybe 16/1? No—he’s now 20/1. The odds compilers must be stuck in Chapter 11 of Lar Corbett’s autobiography, where he scored a hat-trick in the 2010 All-Ireland final against Kilkenny. It’s time to wake them up.
Let’s get hypothetical: Samui (126 hurdles) versus Ndwaai (136 hurdles). If Samui had to give Ndwaai 9lbs over hurdles, where would your money land? Well, that's what you’ll face at Newmarket. One’s 20/1, the other 20/1. Do the math.
Recommendation:
Newmarket Cesarewitch October 12th
Take 20/1 or bigger—at these odds, Ndwaai remains daylight robbery for the Newmarket Cesarewitch. Wake up the compilers before they regret
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