TS on the Arc

I'll get back to post reasons to eliminate the favourite later

Look De Vega   Favourite

Shin Emperor
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
1pt win at 25-1 generally

Al Riffa
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
1pt win at 16-1

With the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe not on the agenda for City Of Troy, Economics, Calandagan or Goliath, there's room at the top and at this stage French Derby winner Look De Vega is in pole position for the big race at Longchamp on October 6.

He looked right out of the top drawer when running away with the French Derby in June and, while that form looks hit or miss, couldn't have won any easier. He'll be the one to beat, although he has to prove he stays 1m4f. On pedigree that's likely but not certain and, given the draw can play a big part in the outcome of any Arc, he makes no appeal at around 3-1.

Sosie, who finished third to Look De Vega at Chantilly, improved on that run when upped to 1m4f in the Grand Prix de Paris over the Arc course. He's likely to be a factor too but beating Illinois by two lengths isn't anything to write home about and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if Delius, who stayed on into third in that race, turned the tables in October.   

That was Delius's first run in Group 1 company and he took time to warm to the task before coming home strongly. He might be the three-year-old with the most improvement in him.

However, it's surely only a matter of time before a Japanese horse wins the Arc and after plenty of near-misses this might be the year they hit the bullseye with Shin Emperor.

Fifth in the Japanese 2,000 Guineas and a fast-finishing third off a moderate pace in their Derby, Shin Emperor is bred for the job as he's a brother to the 2020 Arc winner Sottsass. His trainer Yoshito Yahagi is no stranger to winning big international races, having landed a Cox Plate, two Dubai Turfs, a Hong Kong Cup and a QEII Cup there and most memorably a double at the 2021 Breeders' Cup.

Shin Emperor is due to go for the Irish Champion first. If he runs to anywhere near his Japanese form, he'll be competitive at Leopardstown, which would set him up for a big run in the Arc.   

With Economics out of the way, a thin British challenge might be led by Bluestocking, who stays well and wouldn't mind soft ground, but the Irish have some better chances. Surprisingly the best of them might not be trained by Aidan O'Brien.

Opera Singer is the shortest priced of the O'Brien potential runners but if she got a perfect ride at Goodwood in the Nassau as the sectionals suggest, she'll have to step up markedly on that form to win the Arc. French Oaks winner Sparkling Plenty, third in the Nassau, could be the best Arc hope from the Goodwood race.

The older colts Al Riffa for Joseph O'Brien and White Birch for John Murphy make most appeal from the Irish entries.   

White Birch looked brilliant when beating Auguste Rodin in the Tattersalls Gold Cup and we know he stays 1m4f well and would be right at home if there was some give underfoot. We haven't seen him since May, though, while Al Riffa's form is looking better and better.

He got closer than any other horse did to last year's brilliant Arc winner Ace Impact and, after a poor run on firm ground in America, his last two displays have been his best.

He gave up plenty of track position before coming home strongly behind City Of Troy in the Eclipse and last time he won what has traditionally been a great Arc trial in Germany very easily. He improved plenty for the step up to 1m4f and has been trained to peak for the Arc all season long.

Thank you very much, Fatpunt

My early BREEDING  thoughts after reading that RP prelim  are No Thanks Shin Emperor, Delius, Look de vega, opera singer and white Birch


but I like Sosie, Sparkling Plenty  and Alriffa.

Continuous

am on Delius at 40/1 ew msq de sevigne at 25s and 40s ,and sosie at 40/1 ew . ante post I will prob get a nonner amongst the 3