eLDERFLOWER 235

4.0 on here, an hour before the race. Good hourly rate for anyone laying that up to 11.0

winner, went clear, just held on, 3.5 into 1.95

3.10 Ling  The Ferret  4.4 out to 6.2 nicely beaten

moving them today Tigger ?  i was up early doors mooving a few in Oz.  even the Aussie commentators seemed surprised at the price movements on the TAB.  moved a couple into new fav, one won one beat.  Aussie markets a lot less liquid, much easier to moove em, biggest one 2.34 >> 1.72, went off 1.65 down under.  Aussie boys - there's been a good move for this, just about sh&t myself laughing.  meee !!

Quiet day today, only a handful of markets looked ripe for picking so far.

First one attempted at York, 4.10, Karmology. backed 3.5, just jumped off at 2.8

watch it bounce back up now

2.78-2.92

just made Padi shove that Lilkian in from 15.5

BSP 12.6

market impact to follow ...

(Ring price: 12/1 11/1 12/1) SP 12/1

not a lot, but interesting that i managed to move it below the industry SP.  ffs wtf !!

Im really surprised you dont try to move the shorter priced ones, far much more liqudity, but not too much that £250 cant make them move.

I'd only be confident of getting about £25 matched at prices over 10.0, is that enough to move them ?

bot moves them all tigger.  i just pick them out randomly.  93.4% i'm right.

I'd only be confident of getting about £25 matched at prices over 10.0, is that enough to move them ?

it's more the amount the bot sticks up that moves them.  that's triggered by the amount you put in.  the bots default is £108, so if he puts up £108 at 10.5 someones going to have to risk a months worth of deposits to take it.  padi knows that's not happening, market can only move one way.

experimenting with Glynn, 5.0 race. £25 matched at 10.5

nowhere near enough liquidity to get £250 matched. The most I can make is a fiver. Gone to 9.8 though

fiver every race, 60 grand a year tax free.

just moved the outsider here, Storm Venture.  22 >> 16.5

strategy is to lay it at 16.5 etc  it's not 16.5 shot.  might still win, not saying it won't (it didn't)

only reason it's 16.5 is the bots moved it in, thats not a true reflection of its chances so laying that gives you the edge. price was 21, when we started making the bot mooove it.   the key is the bots movements reflect something other than the horses chances of winning.  i know what they are.

Soir de Gala backed at 2.9 Watch it bounce now my lay is matched at 2.4

2.6 SP

Another £50 bagged, plus the £1.20 off the Glynn trade. £25 at 10.5 meant I had to get £236 matched on laying Glynn. Not easy with no liquidity at that kind of price

Glynn wins

looking at Key to Cotai here.  7.2, want that to go 6.2

hopefully padi can help out.

Id be holding out for 5.5 ish, but race too competitive to be confident of moving one that far, so I didnt get involved.

Cotai hit 6.4 for you, thats £30 if fully traded out of a £250 back at 7.2

couldn't get it under 6.4

7.2 >> 6.4  think it was first to hit 1000.

It matters not to me how they run, although I do record the results. Id be making alot more if I didnt do the lay bets.

of course it doesn't tigger.  matters not to padi either, its all a numbers game.  he wants the numbers on his side, when he really shouldn't be playing in the markets at all.  but he's a greedy bookie and can't forego an opportunity.

As long as he persists in allowing me to trade out my back bets for a profit all is good with me.

Good work lads.keep it up

cossack chach 4.1 >> 3.7

and then back to 4.8

why not just 4.1 >> 4.8 ??

^^ see this about a dozen times a day.  never drifts straight out, always in.  then out.

Alot of mine bounce back up as soon as I trade out.

I could lay for double the amount and back it back 2 mins later for double the profit.

cossack chach 4.1 >> 3.7

padi giving value lays with these antics.  3.7 ?  it was first to 1000.  not complaining, keep the bot going padi

Mine are not value lays,even at the bottom price. Alot of them win

heading out tigger, good luck with the rest.

got my eye on a couple of moovers at newcastle tonight, be back for them & hopefully padi's still mooving. 


merci padeeee

they win tigger, but at a price lower than they should have b'cos the bot moved them in, for whatever reason (paddeeee )

so 5.4 >> 3.8  Wins.  you gotta take that.  some will win.  but long term you laying 5.4 shots at 3.8 you don't need a job.

A significant amount of yours win too.

Not the best cards for trading this evening I agree.

I definitely dont need a job

freddie lays a lot of my padi movers. you'll regularly see him thanking me for "the value"

the value he refers to is laying something 2 spots lower than it's chances of winning.  if you wanna know why its 2 spots lower ask uncle padi.

Id be very wary of laying anything if its gone alot shorter for no apparent reason, other than to trade out an earlier back at significantly bigger odds.

if its been 12.5 all day, and its still 12.5, and its still 12.5

and then i get involved and immediately it becomes 9.8, for no other reason that i got involved and padi's bot started looking for £108 at 11.5, and another £108 at 10.5. it's now 9.8 on here.  but it's still a 12.5 shot.  really.  i haven't got a clue if it's winning or not.  neithers paddys bot.  but between us we've moved it 12.5 >> 9.8

this is why people get confused when it trails in 50 lengths behind the winner.  sitting there thinking that was strange, "they" backed that in from 12.5 to 9.8 and it ran a stinker.  was it backed ?  or was it moved ?

But every time you land an acca, Freddie must do his nuts.

Do you keep a record of how your back and lay bets fare ?

7.00 Chelm Backed Bold Suitor at 6.0 but only got £120 matched. I can lay off at 4.6 ish now

straight out to 4.9

6.2 into 4.4 out to 5.5

7.15 Whos Glen 6.0 to 3.7