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18 Aug 24
12:45
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05 Oct 11
In terms of the Arc, a bit biased as I have backed it, but a bit more impressed than the bookmakers were with yesterday's win. I have more hope for her than my other bet, Delius, who is a fair bit shorter in the market. The owner's also have Sosie at a lot shorter price, but not sure the big disparity is fair. I think he won a weak enough Grand Prix, and would probably not appreciate testing ground on Arc day.
Returning to yesterday, the owner's other runner who made the 'pace' was no help whatsoever setting a crawl. In the circumstances Aventure was worst placed, particularly for a staying type, and has done well to quicken up and just see it out. You would think much softer ground would have suited better, and would also imagine that given a two month break the trainer would have left a bit a fair bit to work on for the autumn campaign. This race was light years away from winning an Arc, but if it does come up very soft then I think she has a better chance than the 33/1 might suggest. The Vermeille will tell us more.
Returning to yesterday, the owner's other runner who made the 'pace' was no help whatsoever setting a crawl. In the circumstances Aventure was worst placed, particularly for a staying type, and has done well to quicken up and just see it out. You would think much softer ground would have suited better, and would also imagine that given a two month break the trainer would have left a bit a fair bit to work on for the autumn campaign. This race was light years away from winning an Arc, but if it does come up very soft then I think she has a better chance than the 33/1 might suggest. The Vermeille will tell us more.
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I very much agree with this.
The trainer after the race said she’d been given a proper break after the Diane. I’d say she just got a bit tired in the last half a furlong. She reminds me a lot of Danedream. I suspect there’s a proper engine in there. Her Diane sectionals are available on the France Galop website. She could have won that on another day, over a trip shorter than ideal. I hope she gets to the Vermeille in good shape. |
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Don't know what to make of that. She came to win the race and didn't.
She hasn't got home. Was that a case of still something to work on, or surprisingly, not seeing the trip out on that ground? She raced more free than ideal. Either way, unfortunately, I am tempted to think Blue Stocking has all of a sudden run the race of her life. Hard to believe this was the same horse who couldn't win anything last year. Even after the trials the Arc looks a puzzle. The market doesn't think so, but the Vermeille might have been a better trial than the Niel. It was run nearly three seconds faster. I would imagine they will still go Arc with Aventure, but Guyon will likely stick with Sosie. The Japanese horse looks very short. He got his ground at Leopardstown, and they have finished in a heap so hard to carried away with the form. Unlikely to get that ground on Arc day. |
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I wouldn't be too disappointed with that. Definitely looked the winner but she didn't shirk the issue.it was a very brave run by the winner. The fact that the trainer was talking about sublementing the winner for the arc would suggest it was a pretty decent performance. I think the second will finish in front of today's winner if they both make the arc. They both have as good a chance as any.
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Trainer talking of alternative targets for Aventure, but surely it would be madness not to have a crack? It looks a bun fight, you only have to look at the market. Despite a couple of wins Sosie is not a strong favourite. He beat Illinois and we have more than enough evidence to suggest that one is no worldbeater. Yesterday he beat a horse who is consistently being ridden for a change of pace which at Group 1 level he doesn't possess, at least not at the moment. Delius might still be a long term improver, but he looks very short at 10/1. I said that I thought that Aventure had the better chance and she remains twice the price. Look De Vega now has plenty of questions to answer. Yes, he was returning after a break, but the market (6/4-8/13) didn't suggest that he was going to be that unfit. Off an easy lead, he folded very tamely. No confirmation that he even stayed the trip. Los Angeles is not much better than Illinois. If you could guarantee that Blue Stocking would back up then 12/1 doesn't look the worst price. A strong pace and 1m4f looked to be her optimum.
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Totally agree about Aventure and some interesting other thoughts,
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I see this morning Sky Bet have kicked Aventure out to 20/1. That makes no sense at all unless they have heard that it isn't running?
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Well, still in at the moment. I can only think by pushing it out to 20/1 bookmakers are just taking a flyer in the hope it won't run.
It would seem a strange decision not to run. People saying that Guyon would argue for it to run elsewhere, but surely to the owner this is the biggest race in the world? He has only won it with fillies. It could be that Sosie gets a poor draw. Wouldn't you want a couple of decent shots? |
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I'm a fan too. This is the time of year Sea the Stars fillies really improve. Remember Sea of Class who would have beaten Enable if J Doyle had woken up earlier.
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i like the look of aventure that was a good trial last time and the jockey seemed to be taking a pull a few times mid race no suprise if she reverses the form with bluestocking ,i already have 3 ante post at big prices so i wont go in again but she should improve and if she runs she could go close !
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Lot of people seem to be putting up Los Angeles, but I am struggling to see any appeal at the current prices. He won a Derby Trial in at best workmanlike style, the form of which has turned out to be shocking; was readily brushed aside in the Derby; just got home in a bunched finish to the Irish Derby, beating a horse who is a million for the Arc; fell over the line in another bunched finish to the Great Voltigeur, and stayed on without ever looking likely in a bun fight for the Irish Champion Stakes. It appears he keeps on running to a level, but is that level good enough, even in a sub-standard Arc? I suppose we might have six in line at the furlong marker, and his experience of bunched finishes might help his cause.
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Los Angeles is all the rage because of his trainer in this perceived open ARC. Another reason he's running is because his trainer's no 1 ie City Of Troy is on a breeding marketing exercise in America. Also, Auguste Rodin is very unlikely to get his ground at Longchamp at the weekend.
I think unless the Japanese jockey has a howler Shin Emperor will once again finish infront of Los Angeles just like he did at Leopardstown |
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Should have checked this earlier, but Aventure doesn't figure amongst the L'Opera entries, so presumably, it's all systems go with Pasquier taking the ride.
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Can only see the price shortening now. Fingers crossed for Sunday
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Yes, happy with 4 and 7. Hopefully, Delius will be ridden prominently, and Aventure will get a sit in the first six or seven. There isn't a great deal of pace in the race, but I can't see many of these wanting a sprint finish. No surprise if Shin Emperor has problems.
Big question remains as to whether Hayley Moore will ever be able to pronounce Delius. It was a tortuous effort this morning. |
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No real support for Aventure, or anything else for that matter. Prices for Aventure and Delius make you wonder whether it was worth backing them a few months ago.
On a really bad trot at the moment and when you are on that sort of run you unfortunately, go in expecting the worst. I don't have that many bets, but so many shockers (most for no obvious reason) with Balmacara, Ice Max, and Formal last week, and Democracy Dilemma, Purosangue, and Midnight Strike yesterday. Even the two that did run well (and would have comfortably covered the losses) didn't have anything like the best of luck. Rouge Sellier must have suffered from Morris chasing the early pace out wide. She's eventually ended up on the inside and despite staying on strongly was still beaten a neck for fourth place. Almaqam had a horrible wide trip relative to the winner, and it seemed that given a clear passage Moore took an age to get him running in the straight. It always seemed he was going to run out of track. I think he should have won. So can it get any worse? At the moment I can't see why Aventure, Delius, and Start The Day won't run well. The last named remains a big price. I think both 2yo races are substandard. Zarigana has been very impressive, but odds on is not tempting. Field Of Gold is also not tempting with the combination of Shoermark and soft ground. Did think about Starlust in the Abbaye, but he has halved in price since the draw, and if he can't go the early pace he could easily get boxed on the inside. |
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Aventure
There isnt much of her Compared with Blue Stocking shes a pony Thats what put me off  |
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Best bred for long champ.both sire and dam won here at this meeting,stars tend to improve with time.
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Close but no cigar. No complaints, good winner.
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Great spot 2 months out,
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Huge difference between a 33/1 winner, and a place, but she ran really well although beaten fair and square again. I thought she travelled better in the Vermeille, and the rain may have helped the winner a little more than her.
Delius didn't look tractable enough to hold a decent position. He might be better next year, but I suspect he isn't one to have too much faith in. Barbarin's contribution today has been very questionable. Lost track of how many times he trundled out the Vermeille stat, and spent most of his other time trying to justify his Lope De Vega selection. |
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Totally agree, I thought she might have turned the tables but the winner has done it well.
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Pity that they supplement the winner
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Supplemented *
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Unusual generally for an Arc wasn't it, expecting horses to come into it from behind but you really needed to be in the van the whole way today.
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Start Of Day did run well, but again one place off those offering four places. She was a huge drifter 12/1 out to at one stage 33/1. I can only think the feeling was that the ground would blunt her speed, and that's maybe what happened. Think she would be of plenty of interest if she returns next year.
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