Trump gone odds against

Last thursday there was a big shift.

The 100/1 is looking  nice.
Ronnie.

Cheers jamee

Ronnie, you've got 100/ about Kamala?
Nice one
Laid some back or keeping it?

Reg.
I put the bet on here on the 31 May a guy put a thread on here at the same time saying  he didn't  think Biden would stand

Hope you are well.
Ronnie.
Ps Keeping it.

Well done

Well done Ronnie, nice to see a good guy getting some value , and well done the mystery tipster , that's excellent thought out information

HHAC.
Please  look at the Trump.post I have just bumped up ..Hope you are well.
Ronnie.

I hope she wins for you Ronnie.

Well "askjack" whoever you are well done, incredible insight

Second Again.
Thank you for your  very  kind words.
Hope you are well.
Ronnie.

Political Betting – Everything you Need to Know in One Place
Welcome to politicalbetting.co.uk – our resource to help you take advantage of the meteoric rise of UK political betting.

Like with financial markets, success with political betting markets depends on efficiently processing the vast sums of information that are available across media and the internet round the clock. This information – and the conclusions that can be drawn from it – will all be distilled and condensed here, to provide the most comprehensive resource for winning politics bets in the UK and beyond.

If there were an election today I’d expect Donald Trump to win and the reasons in the above tweet explains why. We’re not at the point where I think Trump is value. Polls aren’t static, and with fewer than three months to election day there’s enough time for the polls to change either way and it could be utterly grim based on the Trump campaign, he’s not so much as using racist dog whistles as much a racist foghorn. TSE

Cut/Paste from politicalbettting.com

She is not putting her foot in it everything she says is from the teleprompter.

When there is not much between the two
and you see
Trump preachers hate
Harris preachers happiness

i think people are now getting sick of him now, i can
see her price shortening if he stays in the race

... Agree with Dunc, Trump supporters not happy I imagine with all his Gaffs lately.

Hard to see Trump winning from here . Guy's utterly raving and getting more unmoored from reality by the day. Vance is a loose cannon . Harris will pull in enough from the undecided 105 to get there imo. World dodge's a bullet so to speak.

In Trump we trust.

Correction 3.30 ..undecided 10% !

To me, the Trump campaign have pretty much taken the last few weeks off. Reckon they might still be recalibrating with the change of opponent and trying to work on a new strategy. But the point is that Harris has shortened up as she's been more or less unopposed in the narrative. Trump has to get out campaigning again soon and surely the market will take notice of that too. I don't think the contest is over by any rate.

oh no porcys turned up as well

another avalanche of truth-denying bollox on the way

the kamel can barely string a sentence together and relies entirely on the team behind the scenes to help her stumble through. shes awful and would be a terrible choice but i still hope the idiot gets in to keep the other thing out

jesus, you've started early.


No chance of any debate, just straight into the abuse I see. Good day sir.

The debates will determine the winner, which will probably mean Trump.

Harris will stand and just laugh, so I'd imagine Trump will win them.

I don't think the Harris supporters really care though how she comes across and literally doesn't say a word on anything

I started tracking the Harris bet on the day Biden retired with dignity intact 21.07.24
Prices then:
21.07 24 the 'rump 1.62 v Harris 3.75

Steady drift the 'rump v Harris the Steamer over the weeks.

14.08.24 the 'rump 2.2 v Harris the Steamer 1.92

Current Harris Bet

Liability: £0.00

Cash Out
£690.32
Profit:
£690.53

Kamala Harris
£1,325.32   

Donald Trump
£0.21   

The rest of the other 131 runners

£08.16

she,s got democratic convention ,followed by LAB day to keep all the MSM on her and unless trumps changes tack on to policy ,she,s going to rinse trump in TV debates,so trump needs to get all that out of the way before returning to flinging as much  mud as he can hoping alot of it sticks

Event Start Time
05 November 2024, 12:00
Win Only Market


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UK wallet

I'm ALL IN on Harris going all the way!

Roll on November.

Ive been over to the states for the last month. Ive family and friends in New York and Kentucky. New Yorkers Democrats, Kentuckians Republican but all think Trump will win comfortably in November.

i follow a couple of accounts on twix that i strongly suspect emanate from the st petersburg ira (its officially the internet research agency) and it exists solely to spread lies and sow division in the west. its blocked in russia of course

when bidet went into meltdown they sprung into life, retweeting endlessly. but now i suspect theyd he rather was still on the ticket as he was bound to lose

expect a lot of anti-kamel stuff to appear in the next few months. putin so wants trump, its the best reason to oppose him

people can only deposit a few hundred on mth on BF..yet on USA presidential market people have millions tied up laying 1000 the also rans.. comedy gold.

Given the state of their elections,it’s not impossible one of these could win on a technical knock out.

I had a tenner on the speaker after the riots last time,has she would have had to stand in as president until it was sorted.

1000/1 shots do win.usa elections are crazy.

Rico-Dangleflaps • August 14, 2024 10:28 PM BST
British people can only deposit a few hundred on mth on BF.

fyp

After the BS Trump came out with in the Musk interview, even the thickest rednecks must be doubting his sanity!  "I said to Vladimir Putin, 'Don’t do it. You can’t do it, Vladimir. If you do it, it’s going to be a bad day. You cannot do it.’ And I told him what I’d do. He said, 'No way,'  I said, 'Way.'"

The language of a childish teenager. Rumour is he had just watched Waynes World...

Trump wins election hands down. Very easy to see in all honesty.

Harris getting a soft time from the media at the moment -she will probably win their first debate.Have no doubts that Trump is the old dog for the hard Road -think Hardy Eustace and Harchibald.Six weeks ago Harris was considered a failure as vice president.Have no doubts that Trump will trade at odds on again.

Listening to a few podcast and the media is overdrive with Harris and a lot of the polls are outdated and around 2 weeks behind, Trump trades odds on again in the next 7 days imo

Trump fanboys are so uninformed and will continue to back their hero but he is heading for another humiliating defeat on this current trajectory.

Trump should be toast - regardless of the politics

Thread title should have stopped at Trump gone Odd.

Harris has gone from 1.93 > 1.88 on here through today.

Trump seems to have dementia, thinks he's been president, not Biden.

How did they get into this mess.

At no point in any campaign or in any actual election has Trump come close to 50%+ in polls (i'm not talking about individual polls for Fox etc btw!). In a normal election year Trump (or any candidate obv) could get something like 20m less votes and still win. He could 'lose' by 3-4% and still win the election.
In a normal year the GOP  wood easily pick up the Senate and increase the maj in hor as its pretty favourable to them - well the tiny % of non gerrymandered and therefore competitive seats up for grabs favours the gop this cycle. However it seems Harris is even affecting that and a dem trifecta has gone from 'remote' to 'def possible'.
Aaaand people haven't even got stuck in to 'Project 25' yet!

https://x.com/Acyn/status/1824194532390617154?s=19

..

Watching Trump repeatedly ramble on about how nothing bad would have happened anywhere else in the world had he remained as President in 2020 is becoming amusing.


Then, on the day the US stock market rose 657 points he said the US was close to a Depression!

What Trump has forgotten is that no mater how much you slate your opponent, you still also have to say what you intend to do if you win. But, I agree with another poster.

How the US has got itself in this mess is beyond me. A current president who sadly seems on the verge of dementia, a male candidate (Trump) who really must be the most stupid man in the US - and that is not a high bar - and a female (Harris) with a nice line in trousers suits and who is good at waving at people but has no policies!!!

God help us all.

A cult of personality is a group that idealizes a leader and shares common political, social, religious, or philosophical beliefs. Some characteristics of a cult of personality include:

    Leader
    The leader is often a public figure, such as a political leader, who is presented as a heroic or infallible figure. Leaders may use mass media and imagery to create a larger-than-life image of themselves. They may also be charismatic, highly convincing, and good at getting people to listen to and follow them.
    Followers
    Followers accept the leader's authority and devotion to their mission. They may also seek inappropriate loyalty to the leader and isolate members who try to leave.
    Propaganda
    Cults of personality often use propaganda and mass media control to exaggerate the leader's achievements and personal qualities to create a near-god-like status. They may also distort the truth and have no tolerance for questions or critical inquiry.
    Other characteristics
    Cults of personality may also involve patriotism, mass demonstrations, and absolute authoritarianism without meaningful accountability.

Writing in 2013, Thomas A. Wright observed that "it is becoming evident that the charismatic leader, especially in politics, has increasingly become the product of media and self-exposure."

Focusing on the media in the United States, Robert N. Bellah added, "It is hard to determine the extent to which the media reflect the cult of personality in American politics and to what extent they have created it. Surely they did not create it all alone, but just as surely they have contributed to it. In any case, American politics is dominated by the personalities of political leaders to an extent rare in the modern world ... in the personalized politics of recent years the 'charisma' of the leader may be almost entirely a product of media exposure."

£26 million on trump still  three months  to go   just say  trump  won  how much  would Betfair make  on the   bet. unbelievable

There's £50 million matched on the market so far smartpunter which is huge i agree but tbh virtually every match in the IPL Cricket would beat that for liquidity and they last less than 4 hours per match.

Well HAYDEN, ARE YOU  GOOD  AT  MATH'S. (APPROX)

Trump chance of winning presidential election

16th of July, 2024: 72%

Now: 44%

(Polymarket)

Tick Hunters should make plans and watch the rollercoaster market closely.

18th September sentencing day for 'rumpy dumpty!

Lay to back the 'rump

any bets struck?

Trump has very little chance of winning imo unless the economy really crashes....He always loses the popular vote, and is now losing in every swing state....His speeches have to be seen to be believed.....and very funny, the democrats are calling him and his running mate, weirdos....i wouldnt bet on the outcome mind, as the yanks are odd...especially the uneducated poor white working class, which is the trump core vote.

Let's not forget that most elections both in the US and UK are decided by those who have no real attachment to either candidate..in other words, the undecided.

A lot of states are clearly Democrat or Republican but the swing states are where the vote is the most crucial.

Now, where Harris has an advantage is that in being an ethnic female, she will clearly appeal to many of the undecided ethnics and females.

Those who would never vote for an ethnic female are probably staunch Trump supporters all ready.

Also, Trump's bizarre ramblings will turn off many of those who are still undecided and waiting to see how the two candidates perform as the campaign hots up.

My money, and I have already bet a fair sum on it, is that Harris will win. Not by a landslide but by enough to stop Trump going on and on and on about the postal vote - which he did when defeated in 2020.

Head to head will decide.

Trump's only chance is as the Republican candidate.

Trump as Trump is a busted flush who has spent the last few years building up the Biden is senile narrative but against Kamala it is Trump who is 78 years old and rambling incoherently: hoist by his own petard.

But he is still the Republican candidate and so most Republican voters will hold their noses and vote for The Donald.

And God alone knows what JD Vance brings to the Republican ticket. Even Trump is said to be despairing of his VP pick running mate.

Both VPs have been incredibly helpful...to Harris.

On which note, Trump's next problem might be that voters start wondering what happens if JD Vance has to take over the presidency. Vance is tied to Project 2025 which Trump has been trying to distance himself from as too extreme.

(Trump | Harris)

AZ (44% | 43%)
FL (48% | 43%)
GA (46% | 46%)
MI (45% | 44%)
MN (40% | 47%)
NV (43% | 42%)

And Trump is fav.again

the democrats have been outpolling the polls by 9% in actual elections.

trump will lose the popular vote by several million....His only hope is the
batty electoral college where he wins 4 or 5 states by very small margins.

i cant see him winning, but i would be betting on my opinion..
And he is an utter moron.

*wont be betting on my opinion.

Apparently, Trump is favourite again because it is rumoured that Kennedy is going to drop out of the race and endorse Trump.

That's what his VP nom says. I've no idea how that helps Trump much more than Harris tho as Ken support roughly 40/60 H/Tr (leaning to Trump anyway) and those dems who would vote dem/Ken almost certainly won't vote dem/trump. I'd ignore all polls until about 10days before tbh! I'm really not sure where Trump gains from here unless a huge mistake by Harris,

Harris is pretty awful off prompter and the big wave will die down. That said, Trump is a bit of a mess compared to his messages 8 years ago which were on point and well delivered to his supporters. If Trump brings back his 2016 energy then you could see him doing what he did to HRC, winning the election but losing the popular vote.

We could have had a more competent race in Pete Buttigieg vs Ron DeSantis but here we are again with 2 horrific candidates.

We could have had a more competent race in Pete Buttigieg vs Ron DeSantis but here we are again with 2 horrific candidates.

Spot on

The thread on Politics was comedy gold , the Politics  judges  piling in to bet Biden

A couple of them on here  must have done their absolutes , if they actually place a bet that is .

Trump starting to sound very strange even by his own bizarre standards, Harris should say as little as possible and just let trump keep rambling on

She should take her sudoko to the debates and just let him rip!

Chances of winning

Chances of winning US Presidential Election

Trump: 51% chance
Harris: 49% chance

(Based on polls and prediction markets)

democratic convention chicago hasn't moved the polls

Aug 21, 2024 -- 12:58PM, spyker wrote:

That's what his VP nom says. I've no idea how that helps Trump much more than Harris tho as Ken support roughly 40/60 H/Tr (leaning to Trump anyway) and those dems who would vote dem/Ken almost certainly won't vote dem/trump. I'd ignore all polls until about 10days before tbh! I'm really not sure where Trump gains from here unless a huge mistake by Harris,

I don't see Trump getting a significant advantage with Kennedy dropping out either.

BBC showing their bias as usual

Fawning over Harris and criticising Trump on the news

Both parties guilty of something I find hilarious
On the stage at the rallies they pretend to point out a particular person in the audience, as though they're an old friend and feign excitement, to make it a look like a personal thing
I'm sure it's a thing they are coached to do