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askjack
11 Aug 24 13:25
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Nov 08
| Topic/replies: 1,172 | Blogger: askjack's blog
Compact Betting Recommendations HRE

Race Details:
Race: Welcome to Family Day Nursery Handicap (Class 6)
Time: 14:00
Date: 11th August 2024
Location: Leicester
Distance: 7f
Going: Good to Firm (Good in places)
Prize: £8,000
Runners: 9
ClassPar: 67

All 9 Runners Overview:

Horse 1: Power of Twins
Official Rating: 67
Recent Form: 1, 2, 4
Speed Figures: TS 78, RPR 74
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Jockey: S M Levey
Forecast Odds: 9/4
IP Hi/Lo: 1.30 / 2.50
OLBG Tips: Strongly Tipped
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 9-11
Going Preference: Proven performer on Good to Firm; solid on this going.

Horse 2: Al Waseela
Official Rating: 51
Recent Form: 7, 8, 9
Speed Figures: TS 56, RPR 60
Trainer: William Haggas
Jockey: Cieren Fallon
Forecast Odds: 4/1
IP Hi/Lo: 2.00 / 6.00
OLBG Tips: Supported due to potential with cheekpieces
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 8-9
Going Preference: Unproven on Good to Firm; first time on this going, potential improvement.

Horse 3: Law Degree
Official Rating: 65
Recent Form: 1, 3, 7
Speed Figures: TS 68, RPR 72
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Jockey: S B Kirrane
Forecast Odds: 7/1
IP Hi/Lo: 1.80 / 5.00
OLBG Tips: Mixed opinions; concerns about consistency
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 9-9
Going Preference: Capable on Good to Firm; has shown form on similar surfaces.

Horse 4: Washington Dancer
Official Rating: 67
Recent Form: 2, 5, 8
Speed Figures: TS 62, RPR 68
Trainer: David Evans
Jockey: David Probert
Forecast Odds: 10/1
IP Hi/Lo: 4.00 / 10.00
OLBG Tips: Limited support, considered an outsider
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 9-11
Going Preference: Has yet to show best form on Good to Firm, some concerns on this going.

Horse 5: Liberty Bird
Official Rating: 66
Recent Form: 1, 4, 9
Speed Figures: TS 66, RPR 70
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Forecast Odds: 12/1
IP Hi/Lo: 3.00 / 8.00
OLBG Tips: Needs to bounce back, modest support
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 9-10
Going Preference: Mixed results on Good to Firm; needs improvement on this surface.

Horse 6: Corriamo
Official Rating: 63
Recent Form: 3, 7, 6
Speed Figures: TS 64, RPR 69
Trainer: M P Tregoning
Jockey: T E Whelan
Forecast Odds: 100/30
IP Hi/Lo: 2.50 / 7.00
OLBG Tips: Gaining momentum, a potential danger
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 9-7
Going Preference: Capable performer on Good to Firm; consistent on similar surfaces.

Horse 7: Off The Bench
Official Rating: 64
Recent Form: 5, 9, 6
Speed Figures: TS 58, RPR 63
Trainer: Edward Smyth-osbourne
Jockey: Taylor Fisher
Forecast Odds: 20/1
IP Hi/Lo: 5.00 / 15.00
OLBG Tips: Largely overlooked
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 9-8
Going Preference: Yet to show form on Good to Firm; unproven on this going.

Horse 8: Under The Sea
Official Rating: 58
Recent Form: 7, 3, 0
Speed Figures: TS 60, RPR 62
Trainer: Alice Haynes
Jockey: Darragh Keenan
Forecast Odds: 10/1
IP Hi/Lo: 3.50 / 9.00
OLBG Tips: Minimal support, an outsider
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 9-2
Going Preference: Not ideal on Good to Firm; better on softer going.

Horse 9: Majestic Heights
Official Rating: 57
Recent Form: 4, 3, 6
Speed Figures: TS 61, RPR 65
Trainer: Richard Hannon
Jockey: Joe Leavy
Forecast Odds: 14/1
IP Hi/Lo: 4.00 / 12.00
OLBG Tips: Considered but not heavily backed
Key Stats: Adjusted Weight: 9-1
Going Preference: Has handled Good to Firm before; needs to improve on this surface.

Analysis
Key Contenders:
Horse 1: Power of Twins
Reason: Proven on Good to Firm, strong recent form, step up in trip should suit.
Betfair Odds: 9/4
OLBG Tips: Strongly tipped with confidence in the community.
Horse 2: Al Waseela
Reason: Potential for significant improvement with first-time cheekpieces, improving stable.
Betfair Odds: 4/1
OLBG Tips: Well-supported for potential improvement.
Horse 3: Corriamo
Reason: Consistent performer on Good to Firm; steady market support.
Betfair Odds: 100/30
OLBG Tips: Growing support, seen as a potential threat.
Potential Upset:
Horse 4: Washington Dancer
Reason: Consistent performer, outsider with potential if pace suits.
Betfair Odds: 10/1
OLBG Tips: Limited but some outsider value.
Wild Card:
Horse 5: Liberty Bird
Reason: Needs to bounce back from a disappointing run, dropping in weight could help.
Betfair Odds: 12/1
OLBG Tips: Modest support but capable if at her best.
Conclusion
Based on the analysis, Power of Twins and Al Waseela appear to be the strongest contenders for the race, with Corriamo being a notable challenger given his recent market support. Washington Dancer could potentially cause an upset if conditions align favourably. OLBG tips heavily favour Power of Twins, highlighting strong support from the tipster community.

Betting Recommendations
Win Bet: Power of Twins
Place Bet: Power of Twins
Each-Way Bet: Al Waseela
Data Sources:
Inform Racing
Betfair
Irish Racing Post
OLGB
Data Provided:
Race data includes horse names, odds, performance stats, and OLBG tips integrated into the analysis.

Reminder:
For horse racing data, always use the following sources:

Inform Racing: https://www.informracing.org.uk/
Betfair: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/
Irish Racing Post: https://www.irishracing.com/
OLGB: https://www.olbg.com/betting-tips/Horse_Racing/2
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Report askjack August 11, 2024 1:26 PM BST
Pick your own.

These are NOT tips.
Report askjack August 11, 2024 1:33 PM BST
Win

Power Of Twins
4.4
£0.44
£1.50
Ref: 357254987206
Matched: 13:14 11-Aug-24
Power Of Twins
4.4
£1.56
£5.30
Ref: 357254987206
Matched: 13:14 11-Aug-24

2tb Placed (recoups win stake if 2nd)

Power Of Twins
2.36
£0.21
£0.29
Ref: 357255147015
Matched: 13:25 11-Aug-24
Power Of Twins
2.36
£1.79
£2.43
Ref: 357255147015
Matched: 13:15 11-Aug-24

E/W

Al Waseela
9.6
£1.50
Ref: 357255211373
Matched: 13:15 11-Aug-24
Report leif August 11, 2024 1:42 PM BST
Good effort but are they "trying" today?
Report chavman August 11, 2024 1:54 PM BST
your tip is drifting like a barge jack
Report TameTheTiger August 11, 2024 2:03 PM BST
The market knew. Winner 4.4 - 3.1 late
Report leif August 11, 2024 2:13 PM BST
Non-JiggersExcitedSad
Report TameTheTiger August 11, 2024 2:14 PM BST
2.10 Bowood 6.0 - 4.8 late. They knew again
Report leif August 11, 2024 2:36 PM BST
would be interesting to have the stats on how many winners ended up shorter than their BF odds say 5 mins before the off.

age of doing a yankee in the morning long gone. all divied up just before the off.

fully expecting one of the bookies [depending on whose turn it is] to announce a huge payout on a multiple just before York's shindig later this monthMischief
Report askjack August 11, 2024 2:43 PM BST
I have been out harvesting my plants and was unable to do an odds check before the off.

Before checking the results, I'm guessing a negative outcome judging by the comments.
Report leif August 11, 2024 2:46 PM BST
yes. non-jiggers are beyond analysing.

Lost in the cabbage patch. Hope sprouts eternal though.
don't have a face as red as a tomato though.
You knew your onions just turniped out badly.
Report askjack August 11, 2024 2:48 PM BST
Yep, -£7

I did warn that they were predictions, not tips.

Anyway, I hope somebody picked the winner and found the info useful.

That's the end of AI (public) predictions for today.
Report leif August 11, 2024 2:51 PM BST
Looks like quite a few were on the winner when the news was Leeked it was a jigger.
Cor! Jet that one.
Report askjack August 11, 2024 2:51 PM BST

Aug 11, 2024 -- 2:46PM, leif wrote:


yes. non-jiggers are beyond analysing.Lost in the cabbage patch. Hope sprouts eternal though.don't have a face as red as a tomato though.You knew your onions just turniped out badly.


LOL.

Dutch lettuce, actually old boy!

Report leif August 11, 2024 2:54 PM BST
Old BoySad

Salad days well behind me it's trueHappy
Report askjack August 11, 2024 2:57 PM BST
Analysis of the Result for Al Waseela:
Bet Placed:

Horse: Al Waseela
Betfair Odds: 9.6
Stake: £1.50
Matched Time: 13:15, 11th August 2024
Critique:
Odds Analysis:

The odds of 9.6 indicate that Al Waseela was viewed as a longer shot by the market, with an implied probability of approximately 10.4% (1/9.6). This reflects that the market had some reservations about her chances, likely due to her previous inconsistent form and the fact that she was stepping into a nursery handicap with a low official rating of 51.
Bet Amount:

The stake of £1.50 suggests a cautious approach, appropriate for a horse that was not among the primary favourites. Given the higher odds, this was a prudent bet that aligned with the risk associated with backing a horse with improvement potential but no solid form on Good to Firm going.
Market Sentiment:

The time the bet was matched (13:15) was well before the race, which could imply that you were trying to secure better odds before potential market movements. However, betting at this time means you may have missed any last-minute market signals closer to the race start, which sometimes can provide critical insights.
Horse Performance:

Al Waseela had potential with the application of first-time cheekpieces and came from a well-regarded stable under William Haggas. However, her previous form suggested she was still finding her feet, and her performance on Good to Firm going was unproven. This made her a wildcard selection—worth the risk at high odds but not a solid favourite.
Outcome Reflection:

If Al Waseela placed or won, this would represent excellent value at the odds of 9.6, especially considering the modest stake. However, if she underperformed or failed to place, it reinforces the initial market scepticism and suggests that perhaps the bet should have been more conservative or directed toward a more solid contender.
Strategy Consideration:

In future, considering the odds and the market movement closer to race time could be beneficial. It might also be worth placing a smaller portion of the stake on such high-odds horses and balancing it with a safer bet on a more favoured runner to manage risk better.
Conclusion:
While the bet on Al Waseela was strategically sound given her potential upside, the high odds reflected the risk involved. It was a calculated risk, and the outcome should be viewed in the context of your overall betting strategy. For such speculative bets, ensuring that the stake remains small relative to more certain bets is a good approach to managing the volatility inherent in horse racing.
Report leif August 11, 2024 3:09 PM BST
"Corriamo" seems to be the name of a horse competing in the "Family Day Nursery Handicap (Class 6)" race. To provide a more detailed analysis for Corriamo, we would look into several aspects of the horse's performance history, trainer, jockey, and any relevant race conditions.

Corriamo - Analysis
Recent Form:

Review Corriamo's recent races to see how the horse has been performing. If Corriamo has been placing well in recent outings or showing improvement, this would indicate good form. If the horse is coming off a break or had a poor recent run, this could either be a concern or indicate potential improvement if the reasons are known (e.g., recovery from an injury).
Weight Carried:

Look at the weight Corriamo is assigned for this handicap race. If Corriamo is carrying more weight than in previous races, it might affect the horse's ability to maintain speed and stamina, especially over the race distance.
Trainer and Jockey:

Who is training Corriamo, and what is their record with young horses or in similar races? A trainer with a strong reputation can sometimes overcome a lack of form in a horse.
The jockey riding Corriamo is also crucial. A jockey with experience and success on the track could enhance Corriamo's chances, particularly if they have a good rapport with the horse.
Track Conditions:

Corriamo's past performance on different types of track conditions (firm, soft, heavy) should be considered. If Corriamo has shown a preference for certain conditions, this would be a factor in predicting performance in today's race.
Race Distance:

The distance of the race compared to Corriamo’s past races is important. If Corriamo has shown stamina over longer distances or speed in shorter sprints, this could indicate how well the horse might handle today's race.
Competition:

Compare Corriamo to other horses in the race. Are there any standout competitors? How does Corriamo’s form stack up against the field?
General Strategy:
Betting Potential: If Corriamo shows good form, favorable track conditions, and a manageable weight, the horse might be a good bet, especially if the odds offer value.

Watch Market Movements: If there’s significant money coming in for Corriamo closer to the race, this could indicate confidence from the stable or insiders.
If you have specific data on Corriamo's recent races or the field in which Corriamo is competing, I can offer a more precise analysis.


It was a Jigger. Now if only CHATGBT could have given us that pre-race informationCry
Report askjack August 11, 2024 3:23 PM BST
Back to harvesting

15.30 Lei

Laser Focus
7.8
£0.31
Ref: 357270657879
Matched: 15:09 11-Aug-24
Laser Focus
7.8
£2.19
Ref: 357270657879
Matched: 15:09 11-Aug-24
Report askjack August 11, 2024 3:24 PM BST
Nice work leif.
Report askjack August 11, 2024 5:21 PM BST
Dammit... picked the wrong 'un, again!

15:30 LEI - Race Analysis
Top 3 Predictions:

Trojan Truth - With a strong win percentage across various criteria (18% overall, 17% distance, and 33% class), Trojan Truth seems the best-equipped for this race.
Laser Focus - Laser Focus has excellent figures, including a 33% overall win rate and a 67% distance win rate, making it a serious contender.
Papagei - Papagei shows a consistent pattern, with decent statistics in the overall and distance categories, providing a balanced chance in this race.
Wildcard:

Bobacious - Bobacious has shown potential with decent class performance and overall win rate, making it a potential upset candidate.

3.301m. 3f. 179yds. (Class 6) 3-y-o plus12 Ran
Kube - Leicester´s Premier Events Venue Handicap of £8,000.00 3-y-o plus

1st - £4,187.00, 2nd - £1,965.00, 3rd - £982.00, 4th - £491.00, 5th - £245.00 12 Ran

1st
silks
Papagei (GB) 3, ch g 9-8 (Mr S Fustok)
(Drawn 10) Rated 67
Masar (IRE) - Dibajj (FR)(Iffraaj (GB))
Breeder - Deerfield Farm
(Morning price: 15/2 8/1 9/1 8/1 9/1 8/1 9/1 8/1 6/1 5/1 9/2 4/1 7/2 4/1 9/2)
(Ring price: 9/2 4/1) SP 4/1Cfav

James FergusonDaniel MuscuttTote Win £5.00 Place £1.80
in touch in mid-division, lost place 9f out, headway over 3f out, led over 1f out, clear inside final furlong, comfortably
20th Jul, 24 Newmarket
3rd Flat Hcp Rated 67This
Race
2nd4.75L
silks
Dubawi Time (GB) 3, b g 9-7 (R Greenwood & John And Peter Seabrook)
(Drawn 3) Rated 66
Dubawi (IRE) - Chanterelle (FR)(Trempolino (USA))
Breeder - Rabbah Bloodstock Limited
(Morning price: 9/4 5/2 3/1 10/3 7/2 4/1 7/2 4/1 7/2 10/3 7/2 10/3 4/1)
SP 4/1Cfav

William KnightDavid EganPlace £2.10
wore red hood to post, prominent 2f, in touch in mid-division, closed going well over 3f out, led over 2f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, no impression on winner inside final furlong
24th Jul, 24 Leicester
2nd Flat Hcp Rated 67This
Race
3rd6.5L
silks
Bobacious (GB) 4, b g 9-13 (Clear Racing)
(Drawn 6) Rated 62
Telescope (IRE) - First Experience (GB)(Tamayuz (GB))
Breeder - Woodstock Thoroughbred Breeding Ltd
(Morning price: 5/1 9/2 5/1 9/2 5/1 9/2 5/1 9/2 4/1)
SP 4/1Cfav

Ms NichollsJoshua BryanPlace £1.60
led, ridden and headed over 2f out, 3rd and no impression from over 1f out, kept on
26th Jul, 24 Chepstow
3rd Flat Hcp Rated 58This
Race
4thnk
silks
Laser Focus (IRE) 6, b g 9-11 (Pontoon Racing)
(Drawn 4)ts+ Rated 67
Sea The Stars (IRE) - Decisive Intent (GB)(Lawman (FR))
Breeder - Sunderland Holding Inc.
(Morning price: 10/3 7/2 10/3 4/1 7/2 10/3 7/2 4/1 9/2 5/1 11/2 6/1 13/2 7/1 15/2 6/1 11/2 9/2 5/1 9/2)
(Ring price: 5/1 9/2 5/1) SP 5/1

James OwenCharlie Maggs(7)
mid-division, pushed along and effort over 3f out, 4th and edged right over 1f out, no impression, kept on
Report chavman August 11, 2024 9:01 PM BST
jack growing high strength ganja imo
Report askjack August 12, 2024 1:20 AM BST

Aug 11, 2024 -- 9:01PM, chavman wrote:


jack growing high strength ganja imo


Euphoria is good Dutch Lettuce!

Report askjack August 12, 2024 1:28 AM BST
Old Hippies dry vape only the very best lettuce ;)
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