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Race Details:
Race: 6:00 Chepstow - tote Are Online Too At tote.co.uk Racing League 16 Handicap (Trainers Reg' To Racing League) (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-80)
Distance: 7f (7f16y)
Surface: Turf
Going: Good to Firm
Alpine Sierra's Profile:
Age: 6
Weight: 9-0
Official Rating: 66
Trainer: Jim Goldie
Jockey: Joe Fanning
Recent Form: Close second at Ayr ten days ago; consistent placing record but up in grade today
Statistics:
Win %: 9.68% (3 wins from 31 races)
Place %: 32.26% (10 places from 31 races)
Distance Travelled: 363 miles
Jockey and Trainer Combination:
Trainer (Jim Goldie):
Last 14 Days: 4 wins from 27 runners (15% strike rate)
Overall: Consistent performance with a strong placing record.
Jockey (Joe Fanning):
Last 14 Days: 4 wins from 33 rides (12% strike rate)
Overall: Experienced jockey with a decent strike rate; currently showing positive ROI.
Key Competitors:
Believe You Me: Strong recent form with two consecutive C&D wins; carries a 10lb rise but still a significant threat.
Brunel Nation: Two wins in the spring; back to form with a third-place finish last time.
Etoile d'Alexandre: Showed potential with a comfortable win on handicap/stable debut.
Leadenhall: Consistent but below par at York last time; capable of bouncing back.
Race Summary:
Alpine Sierra, trained by Jim Goldie and ridden by Joe Fanning, is the longest traveller in today's race, having journeyed 363 miles to Chepstow. The horse has shown a solid place record and a respectable win percentage. Although stepping up in grade today, the horse's recent second-place finish at Ayr indicates good form. The commitment to travel such a distance suggests confidence from the trainer and owner.
Betting Insights:
Win Probability: The overall win probability based on historical data and current form might be moderate, around 9-10%.
Place Probability: With a consistent placing record, the place probability is relatively high, approximately 30-35%.
Verdict:
Alpine Sierra has a fair chance of placing in this race, given its consistent form and the confidence shown by the long travel. The trainer and jockey combination is strong, and despite the step up in grade, the horse's recent performance suggests it can handle the competition. For betting purposes, an each-way bet on Alpine Sierra could be a prudent choice, focusing more on the place market given the horse's placing consistency.
Potential Bet:
Each-Way Bet: Alpine Sierra (for place and win, considering the higher probability of placing)
Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on historical performance and current form data. Horse racing outcomes are inherently unpredictable, and this information should be used as a guide rather than a definitive prediction. Always gamble responsibly.
Etoile d'Alexandre is my pick for the £1 win bet but I intend to take a punt and bet £1 E/W on Alpine Sierra. This will balance the max stake per race which is my self-imposed limit per race.
Betting Strategy for the 6:00 Chepstow Race
Selected Bets:
£1 Win Bet on Etoile d'Alexandre
£1 Each-Way Bet on Alpine Sierra
Analysis and Justification
1. Etoile d'Alexandre
Trainer: George Boughey
Last 14 Days: 5 wins from 39 runners (13% strike rate)
Overall: Consistently strong performance with recent success.
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Last 14 Days: 10 wins from 66 rides (15% strike rate)
Overall: 25% strike rate recently, indicating good form.
Recent Form: Comfortable win on handicap/stable debut; retains potential despite recent defeat.
Odds: Approximately 6/1
2. Alpine Sierra (Each-Way Bet)
Trainer: Jim Goldie
Last 14 Days: 4 wins from 27 runners (15% strike rate)
Jockey: Joe Fanning
Last 14 Days: 4 wins from 33 rides (12% strike rate)
Recent Form: Close second at Ayr ten days ago; good place record (32.26%).
Odds: Approximately 12/1
Betting Summary
Win Bet: Etoile d'Alexandre
Reasoning: Strong recent form, capable trainer and jockey combination, retains potential despite recent loss.
Each-Way Bet: Alpine Sierra
Reasoning: Consistent place record, significant travel suggesting confidence, solid recent performance.
Total Stake:
£1 Win Bet on Etoile d'Alexandre
£1 Each-Way Bet on Alpine Sierra (Total £2)
Expected Returns:
If Etoile d'Alexandre wins: Returns will be based on the win odds (approximately 6/1).
If Alpine Sierra places: Each-way bet pays out for both a win and a place.
Win: Approximately 12/1
Place: Typically around 1/4 or 1/5 of the win odds (depending on bookmaker terms).
Conclusion
This balanced betting approach aligns with your self-imposed limit and distributes the risk between a solid win candidate and a strong place contender. By covering both a win and an each-way bet, you enhance your chances of a return while keeping the stakes within your comfort zone.
Responsible Gambling
Always remember to gamble responsibly, stay within your limits, and view this as a form of entertainment rather than a guaranteed way to make money. Good luck with your bets!
Race: 6:00 Chepstow - tote Are Online Too At tote.co.uk Racing League 16 Handicap (Trainers Reg' To Racing League) (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-80)
Distance: 7f (7f16y)
Surface: Turf
Going: Good to Firm
Alpine Sierra's Profile:
Age: 6
Weight: 9-0
Official Rating: 66
Trainer: Jim Goldie
Jockey: Joe Fanning
Recent Form: Close second at Ayr ten days ago; consistent placing record but up in grade today
Statistics:
Win %: 9.68% (3 wins from 31 races)
Place %: 32.26% (10 places from 31 races)
Distance Travelled: 363 miles
Jockey and Trainer Combination:
Trainer (Jim Goldie):
Last 14 Days: 4 wins from 27 runners (15% strike rate)
Overall: Consistent performance with a strong placing record.
Jockey (Joe Fanning):
Last 14 Days: 4 wins from 33 rides (12% strike rate)
Overall: Experienced jockey with a decent strike rate; currently showing positive ROI.
Key Competitors:
Believe You Me: Strong recent form with two consecutive C&D wins; carries a 10lb rise but still a significant threat.
Brunel Nation: Two wins in the spring; back to form with a third-place finish last time.
Etoile d'Alexandre: Showed potential with a comfortable win on handicap/stable debut.
Leadenhall: Consistent but below par at York last time; capable of bouncing back.
Race Summary:
Alpine Sierra, trained by Jim Goldie and ridden by Joe Fanning, is the longest traveller in today's race, having journeyed 363 miles to Chepstow. The horse has shown a solid place record and a respectable win percentage. Although stepping up in grade today, the horse's recent second-place finish at Ayr indicates good form. The commitment to travel such a distance suggests confidence from the trainer and owner.
Betting Insights:
Win Probability: The overall win probability based on historical data and current form might be moderate, around 9-10%.
Place Probability: With a consistent placing record, the place probability is relatively high, approximately 30-35%.
Verdict:
Alpine Sierra has a fair chance of placing in this race, given its consistent form and the confidence shown by the long travel. The trainer and jockey combination is strong, and despite the step up in grade, the horse's recent performance suggests it can handle the competition. For betting purposes, an each-way bet on Alpine Sierra could be a prudent choice, focusing more on the place market given the horse's placing consistency.
Potential Bet:
Each-Way Bet: Alpine Sierra (for place and win, considering the higher probability of placing)
Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on historical performance and current form data. Horse racing outcomes are inherently unpredictable, and this information should be used as a guide rather than a definitive prediction. Always gamble responsibly.
Etoile d'Alexandre is my pick for the £1 win bet but I intend to take a punt and bet £1 E/W on Alpine Sierra. This will balance the max stake per race which is my self-imposed limit per race.
Betting Strategy for the 6:00 Chepstow Race
Selected Bets:
£1 Win Bet on Etoile d'Alexandre
£1 Each-Way Bet on Alpine Sierra
Analysis and Justification
1. Etoile d'Alexandre
Trainer: George Boughey
Last 14 Days: 5 wins from 39 runners (13% strike rate)
Overall: Consistently strong performance with recent success.
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Last 14 Days: 10 wins from 66 rides (15% strike rate)
Overall: 25% strike rate recently, indicating good form.
Recent Form: Comfortable win on handicap/stable debut; retains potential despite recent defeat.
Odds: Approximately 6/1
2. Alpine Sierra (Each-Way Bet)
Trainer: Jim Goldie
Last 14 Days: 4 wins from 27 runners (15% strike rate)
Jockey: Joe Fanning
Last 14 Days: 4 wins from 33 rides (12% strike rate)
Recent Form: Close second at Ayr ten days ago; good place record (32.26%).
Odds: Approximately 12/1
Betting Summary
Win Bet: Etoile d'Alexandre
Reasoning: Strong recent form, capable trainer and jockey combination, retains potential despite recent loss.
Each-Way Bet: Alpine Sierra
Reasoning: Consistent place record, significant travel suggesting confidence, solid recent performance.
Total Stake:
£1 Win Bet on Etoile d'Alexandre
£1 Each-Way Bet on Alpine Sierra (Total £2)
Expected Returns:
If Etoile d'Alexandre wins: Returns will be based on the win odds (approximately 6/1).
If Alpine Sierra places: Each-way bet pays out for both a win and a place.
Win: Approximately 12/1
Place: Typically around 1/4 or 1/5 of the win odds (depending on bookmaker terms).
Conclusion
This balanced betting approach aligns with your self-imposed limit and distributes the risk between a solid win candidate and a strong place contender. By covering both a win and an each-way bet, you enhance your chances of a return while keeping the stakes within your comfort zone.
Responsible Gambling
Always remember to gamble responsibly, stay within your limits, and view this as a form of entertainment rather than a guaranteed way to make money. Good luck with your bets!
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Jockeys current wins since 1995 (* denotes was riding before 1995)
Jockey Name Wins Runs Racing Today Joe Fanning* 2,733 21,092 Yes Ryan Moore 2,550 14,486 Jim Crowley 2,298 15,477 Yes Joe Fanning Jockey Details Age: 53 Licence/Permit Type: Flat Days since last win: 4 Lowest Weight Ridden: 8st 2lbs British Career Details. Wins: 2,733 Rides: 21,279 Win to Rides: 12.84% Group & Listed Wins: 69 Prize Money: £28,124,542.16 Joe has had a magnificent career. |
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Liam Bramall
Published: August 7, 2024 Horse racing is in Liam's blood and his biggest passion is jumps racing. He can often be found at his favourite tracks; Chepstow and Cheltenham in the Autumn when the National Hunt action kicks off. In his own words: "I'm often referred to as a walking form book, a trait which comes in handy from time to time. My proudest tipping success to date was landing a whopping 682-1 accumulator at Epsom." Simply getting a horse to the races is an expensive endeavour these days and rising travel costs are a key reason for that. Therefore it’s intriguing when connections send a horse on a particularly long trip. That’s the case at Chepstow‘s Racing League meeting on Thursday as Scotland-based Jim Goldie sends just his second-ever runner to the Welsh track. It’s a 766-mile round trip for the horse in question and connections won’t want to come home empty-handed. Check out our free tips page for daily content across British and Irish racing. The full article with route map and race analysis can be found here: https://myracing.com/news/jim-goldie-sends-one-runner-on-the-766-mile-round-trip-to-chepstow-on-thursday/ I am NOT affiliated to myracing.com However, I often use the website for research and data for my personal AI App. |
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Reanalyse include the Irish Racing Post and OLBG data below:
https://www.olbg.com/betting-tips/Horse_Racing/UK/Chepstow/6:00_Chepstow/2?event_id=973757 https://www.irishracing.com/racecards/Thu-8th-Aug-2024/Chepstow/1800 Updated Race Analysis: 6:00 Chepstow (8 August 2024) Race Details: Race: 6:00 Chepstow - tote Are Online Too At tote.co.uk Racing League 16 Handicap (Trainers Reg' To Racing League) (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-80) Distance: 7f (7f16y) Surface: Turf Going: Good to Firm (Good in places) Prize: £35,000 Key Horses and Analysis Alpine Sierra Trainer: Jim Goldie Last 21 Days: 9 wins from 43 runners (21% strike rate) Jockey: Joe Fanning Last 21 Days: 9 wins from 52 rides (17% strike rate) Form: 935442 Rating: 67 (eased 1lb by the handicapper) Analysis: Close second at Ayr over 7f last month. Eased in the handicap and has placed form on good to firm going. Despite being up in grade, the horse's consistent placing record and slight ease in the handicap make it a strong each-way contender. Bet: £1.50 Each-Way Odds: 14 If Win: £23.40 If Placed: £2.40 If Unplaced: -£3.00 Etoile d'Alexandre Trainer: George Boughey Last 21 Days: 7 wins from 19 runners (37% strike rate) Jockey: Billy Loughnane Last 21 Days: 9 wins from 36 rides (25% strike rate) Form: 435-12 Rating: 77 Analysis: Won at 6f and second over 7f at Lingfield on her latest outing. Well-suited to the course and going. With a favourable draw and in good form, she is a strong win bet. Bet: £2 Win Odds: 6.8 Potential Return: £11.60 Other Contenders Believe You Me: Seeking a hat-trick with three C&D wins. However, the 10lb rise in the ratings might make her vulnerable to better-treated rivals. Brunel Nation: Dropping in grade after a respectable third in Class 3 company. A potential threat but slightly weaker recent form. Von Baer: Recently won at Sandown over 7f; capable but mixed form. Leadenhall: Strong third at York in a Class 3 race, in good form. Craven: Won last time out at York but may struggle with the raised mark. Additional Insights Going Conditions: The going is Good to Firm, which suits both Alpine Sierra and Etoile d'Alexandre. Alpine Sierra has performed well under similar conditions before. Formscan Analysis: Alpine Sierra has been noted for its running-on second at Ayr and has been eased 1lb by the handicapper, making it an appealing each-way bet. Etoile d'Alexandre's course, distance, and going suitability, along with recent form, make it a strong contender for the win bet. Betting Strategy and Recommendation Win Bet: Etoile d'Alexandre Odds: 6.8 Stake: £2 Potential Return: £11.60 Each-Way Bet: Alpine Sierra Odds: 14 Stake: £1.50 each-way Potential Return: If Win: £23.40 If Placed: £2.40 If Unplaced: -£3.00 Conclusion The combined approach of a win bet on Etoile d'Alexandre and an each-way bet on Alpine Sierra offers a balanced strategy, maximising the potential for returns while managing risk. Both horses have strong recent form, favourable conditions, and competent trainer-jockey combinations. Responsible Gambling Reminder Remember, gambling should be a form of entertainment. Always bet responsibly and within your limits. Good luck with your bets! |
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Early indications are Von Baer won. I'm still waiting on the places.
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Dammit, 4th in a photo.
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3rd and 4th on my bets which means no payout.
AI APP picked 1st and 2nd: Brunel Nation: Dropping in grade after a respectable third in Class 3 company. A potential threat but a slightly weaker recent form. Von Baer: Recently won at Sandown over 7f; capable but mixed form. |
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Post-Race Critique: 6:00 Chepstow (8 August 2024)
Race Result: Von Baer Brunel Nation Etoile d'Alexandre Alpine Sierra Analysis of Selected Horses: 1. Alpine Sierra - 4th Place Performance: Alpine Sierra ran a commendable race, finishing just outside the top three. The horse showed good form but was unable to secure a place in the top three. Factors: Despite being eased 1lb by the handicapper, the step up in grade might have been a challenge. The horse's consistent place record held true, indicating it was a reasonable each-way bet. Takeaway: Alpine Sierra's performance was consistent with expectations, showing it is competitive but might benefit from a slightly lower class race or more favourable conditions next time. 2. Etoile d'Alexandre - 3rd Place Performance: Etoile d'Alexandre finished in the top three, which is a solid performance. The horse lived up to its recent form and potential. Factors: The jockey and trainer combination showed their competence, and the horse handled the course and distance well. Being a 3-year-old, there's potential for improvement and future wins. Takeaway: Etoile d'Alexandre justified the win bet with a strong performance. Although it did not win, placing third shows it has the capability to win in similar conditions. 3. Brunel Nation - 2nd Place Performance: Brunel Nation ran an excellent race, securing second place. Dropping in grade from Class 3, the horse showed it could compete effectively at this level. Factors: The drop in class was a significant factor in Brunel Nation's improved performance. The jockey and trainer executed well. Takeaway: Brunel Nation's strong performance suggests it is worth considering for future races, especially when dropping in class. 4. Von Baer - 1st Place Performance: Von Baer delivered a winning performance, showing its capability at this distance and on this surface. Factors: The recent win at Sandown likely boosted the horse's confidence, and the consistent form paid off. Takeaway: Von Baer's victory confirms its potential and suitability for similar races. This horse should be watched for future races under similar conditions. Overall Betting Critique Each-Way Bet on Alpine Sierra: Outcome: Unplaced. Critique: The selection was logical based on the horse's recent form and consistency. While it didn't place, finishing 4th was close, suggesting that the strategy was sound. Win Bet on Etoile d'Alexandre: Outcome: Placed 3rd. Critique: Etoile d'Alexandre performed well and secured a place, indicating that the win bet had a solid basis. Although it didn't win, the horse's strong performance validates the selection. Lessons Learned Form and Grade: Horses like Brunel Nation, which dropped in grade, showed significant improvement. This highlights the importance of considering class changes in future selections. Each-Way Potential: Alpine Sierra’s near placing suggests that while the each-way bet was justified, evaluating potential lower-class races might yield better results. Consistency and Improvement: Both Von Baer and Etoile d'Alexandre demonstrated the value of consistent form and potential for improvement, underscoring the importance of these factors in future bets. Future Recommendations Alpine Sierra: Consider for lower-class races or when conditions are slightly more favourable. Etoile d'Alexandre: Continue to watch for improvement and similar race conditions. Brunel Nation and Von Baer: Monitor for future races, especially when they are competing in similar or slightly lower-class races. Responsible Gambling Reminder Always review race outcomes and learn from each race to improve future selections. Maintain responsible gambling habits, stay within your betting limits, and enjoy the process as part of the sport. |