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I mean what is the point? 
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Rapidly going off this sport.
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And wtf happened to Henry Longfellow ffs....Honestly i do despair.
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Not if you backed the wnr.
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The fav and 2f (not Billyjoh) were not even in the 1st 10.
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why would you expect the fav and 2nd fav to win a race as competitive as that ?.....no value whatsoever no I didn't have a bet in the race but backing favs in those sort of races leads one way ..........the poorhouse !
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winner was smashed in late on bf, broadly 80 into 40ish. someone knew !
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I had 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th in tricast perm ffs
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I find that very believable Clarke.
Pundits were highlighting high drawn horses as the place to be on the near rail 1st and 2nd drawn in the highest boxes. With these things you have to ignore the form of the nags and just trust the draw. |
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Purosangue (fav) and Dark Trooper (j2f) were 1st 8 and 1st 10 with 'sportsbook' and 365 respectively; Billyjoh (3rd) was drawn 4.
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Weel done Clarkey
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Henry easy beaten by guineas winner 2
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someone knew !
listening to the lad that Looks after winner , He certainly knew |
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It's the age of guesswork for punters who actually think they're using a criteria by picking one in the top handful odds thinking the rest have no chance as their odds reflect....
Around 2.5% would probably have backed the winner based on its 40/1 at the local bookies. If the horse was 9/1 at the bookies then it's unbelievably feasible to assume 10% would have backed it. Oblivious to the fact it's the same horse with obviously the same credentials. I'd be as certain as i can be that at least 80% of the 98% that historically lose use odds as the selection criteria and consequently have never not only looked " outside the box " they don't even know the box exists. Good luck today guys  |
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Spot on Hayden.
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Get It was 66/1 with Hills when I posted it as my selection in Div 2 of the Naps comp on Saturday morning.
I was so excited at the prospect of a big winner that I even forgot to remove the dart!  |
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Flucking brilliant top2.
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And I'm sure u had notable who best rosallion . Who has beat Henry
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Blody hell well done that man.
POS CHG FORM NAME SELECTION RESULT +/- TOTAL 1▲ +17 00 top2rated Get It - 3.35 Goodwood 1st 40/1 40.00 £38.00 2▲ -1 01 cobs101 Ambiente Amigo - 2.40 Newmarket Lost -1.00 £6.00 3▲ -1 11 little bobby Desert Flower - 3.15 Newmarket 1st 1/4 0.25 £2.19 4▲ +9 a0 adamanty Al Aasy - 1.50 Goodwood 1st 3/1 3.00 £2.00 5▲ -2 11 Theresa Croude Desert Flower - 3.15 Newmarket 1st 1/4 0.25 £1.78 6 +2 01 Lampus Desert Flower - 3.15 Newmarket 1st 1/4 0.25 £0.87 7 -3 10 Billposter The X O - 3.35 Goodwood Lost -1.00 £0.25 7 -3 12 Reged Caius Chorister - 3.00 Goodwood Lost -1.00 £0.25 7 -3 12 tangerine Le Beau Garcon - 3.20 Thirsk Lost -1.00 £0.25 7 -3 10 TommyWestofLanark Dark Vintage - 7.40 Hamilton Lost -1.00 £0.25 11 -2 01 sageform Fairbanks - 2.25 Goodwood 2nd 100/30 -1.00 -£0.50 12 -2 31 salmon spray Place Of Safety - 2.40 Newmarket 2nd 9/2 -1.00 -£1.00 13 -2 dd nawshan (2) Mostabshir - 3.35 Goodwood Lost -1.00 -£1.00 13 +1 d2 persian war (2) No Selection 0.00 -£1.00 15 +3 00 Caffrey The Cat Puppet Master - 3.05 Galway 1st 1/2 0.50 -£1.50 15 +3 00 Sempervivum Puppet Master - 3.05 Galway 1st 1/2 0.50 -£1.50 17 -5 10 Poppydog. Winston's Tipple - 3.25 Doncaster 3rd 4/6 -1.00 -£1.56 18 -4 d2 Bumpertojumper (1) So Scottish - 2.30 Galway 2nd 10/1 -1.00 -£2.00 18 -4 0d lux (1) Aimeric - 1.50 Goodwood Lost -1.00 -£2.00 18 20 bluebook (1) No Selection 0.00 -£2.00 21 -7 03 sing when ur winning Caius Chorister - 3.00 Goodwood Lost -1.00 -£3.00 21 -3 22 bluenose7 Dancing In Paris - 2.25 Goodwood Lost -1.00 -£3.00 21 -3 00 Colonel Custard Aimeric - 1.50 Goodwood Lost -1.00 -£3.00 21 -3 20 Labrador Fairbanks - 2.25 Goodwood 2nd 100/30 -1.00 -£3.00 21 -3 00 onthehoy Milltown Lily - 8.40 Hamilton Lost -1.00 -£3.00 21 -3 00 penzance True Legend - 2.25 Goodwood Lost -1.00 -£3.00 21 -3 02 Steve Voltage Free Wind - 3.00 Goodwood Lost -1.00 -£3.00 21 -3 00 tictacman1 Jehangeer - 4.10 Goodwood Lost -1.00 -£3.00 21 -3 00 Value-Seeker Eminny - 3.50 Newmarket Lost -1.00 -£3.00 ▼ no-won-sun RETIRED Rate reply: | reportblock user |
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Top2 . Tell acey why u threw a dart at it
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OK freddie, just this once...
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Fantastic
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Never mind Goodwood, I have had a tough run with the flat so far this year.
Not sure if the constant watering of courses has some effect, the form does not seem to transfer from course to course like it used to. Just an observation on my part, no stats to back it up. The draw very often does not pan out as advertised and can vary from day to day at courses like, Ascot, Haydock,York and Doncaster, again just a perception on my part. The bigger yards seem to throw in a few stinking favourites as well. Not a Saturday goes by without at least one mutiple bet buster for the bookies. No sugggestion they are in collision to help fund the levy, but at times I do wonder. Fewer offers from bookies too, and how often can you get a quarter odds a place these days? Since sp from the course's stopped, the top three in the market seem shorter, again just a feeling, no stats. Too many low grade meetings of class 6 handicaps is of no help. Niether is synthetic racing all through the summer, simply no need for it. Prize money is so bad you might as well run a few times to get the handicap mark down and a better price when it is off. Hardly a decent handicap is won these days except by the horses specfically targeted for it. Always gone on I know, just seems more of it. I try to to factor these things into my betting. You can if you wish watch the market just before the off and follow the money.if you want, but I bet for a bet of fun, like to pick the winner myself. I do an ew multiple every day and a few singles on here. Used to do well on bf multiples, that has gone now, many firms wont lay a decent bet, only wanting the smaller punters. All in all, with restrictions and the worry of account closure combined with my comments above, I have found my turnover over and size of bets is reducing and would not be at all surprised if there others feeling a bit the same way. Not about to pack up but it just the seems the value has been squeezed everywhere, a couple of the big three reduced their maximum payouts recently. It reminds me of the days when they started reducing the forecast odds on the wall chart and the introduced computor forecasts instead. |
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33percent of all races won by fav every year. Is 2024 any diff
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I would not know. As I said implied, not a favourite backer myself.
To level stakes is 33% enough for a profit? |
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"33% won by fav..."
What sort of fav? 1/10, 1/5, 1/3, 1/2, 4/6, 1/1, 3/1, 5/1, 7/1, 9/1 or 12/1? If the fav are shorties then I'll tend to agree with you. Royal Ascot and Goodwood were brutal in terms of betting. Luckily I only had 6 bets at the most; 4 winners, 2 losers. It would have been a calamity if I'd anymore. And, Irish racing is a no-go for me 95% of the time. |
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What difference does it make impossible, a fav is a fav regardless of price which is what the percentage is about, in answer to barstool though the answer is no an LSP would not be possible backing them.
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Adrian Massey says every year been nearly same for centuries. On favs
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There's the cag liarg. He laid derby fav for 150k. He knows the sp
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