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10 Jul 24
14:42
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18 Jul 02
Windsor 6/5/24 1m novice slowly away always behind 200/1 RPR 53
Brighton 21/5/24 1m novice held up in rear, soon struggling 25/1 RPR 31
Nottingham 19/6/24 1m2f FIRST handicap WON 11/8F RPR 71+ OR 60
Explanation, horse improved for step up in trip. a STAGGERING 40 pounds better than LTO! The old Sir Mark trick. Obvs alot of punters guessed this one right and it did lose next time out at 13/8F.
However, how about all the owners of the other horses in the Nottingham race. Were they given a fair chance to win by the current handicapping system. I think not.
For whats its worth I would not let horses run at a distance more than +-1f than they have ever run before in minor handicaps, until they have won a handicap. Does my suggestion make sense?
Brighton 21/5/24 1m novice held up in rear, soon struggling 25/1 RPR 31
Nottingham 19/6/24 1m2f FIRST handicap WON 11/8F RPR 71+ OR 60
Explanation, horse improved for step up in trip. a STAGGERING 40 pounds better than LTO! The old Sir Mark trick. Obvs alot of punters guessed this one right and it did lose next time out at 13/8F.
However, how about all the owners of the other horses in the Nottingham race. Were they given a fair chance to win by the current handicapping system. I think not.
For whats its worth I would not let horses run at a distance more than +-1f than they have ever run before in minor handicaps, until they have won a handicap. Does my suggestion make sense?
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Replies: 18
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The uk has the best handicapping system in the world, Australia is by far the worst by a country mile in terms of competitive racing.
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Makes as much sense as using RPR for handicapping!! hth
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OP's suggestion fails because most horses will never win in that system.
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Did the handicapper have any chance of allocating a fair first handicap mark to this horse. IMHO no he didn't and thats so wrong.
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Makes you wonder how RPRs would have rated Red Rum for the future, if they had existed?
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It is a fact of life that if you have a stayer, it will start off over shorter trips. That's true of human athletes as well as horses.
Now, it may well be Sir Mark moves beyond exploiting this and into taking the pee territory but we can't change the rules for one man, and we probably can't change the rules at all in any satisfactory way. |
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It would help of course if more trainers/owners were prepared to invest in stoutly bred horses rather than cheap speed. I keep being put off going racing by the number of 5-7f handicaps on many cards.The answer for the BHA is of course to raise the prize money for races over 12f+ but that would never occur to them.
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I think the OP is spot on.
All this '3 runs to get a handicap mark' is utter carp. The official handicapper should refuse to give a mark until a horse has finished within 2 lengths of a winner. Or at least using tour de france rules. If a horse has not been allotted an official mark then he can run, but off top weight. Similarly, if a horse runs a stinker, gets beaten a distance then next time out... top weight. At the risk of being ballotted out if the entries are oversubscribed. You buy a jumper out of France... guess what... top weight. No messing. OK your horse might struggle at the start of his career. So run him on the all weather. Tracks are tighter so winning distances are smaller. Think it was Mark Johstone who once said give him a horse and he will train it up to a mark of at least 90. Makes sense. Its like school. Most kids will be of average intelligence which in horse racing terms is a rating of around and about 80. The handicapper should make a handicap mark something that is to be cherished. That would keep the human connections honest. Less able to cheat punters running horses that are not off. |
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I agree the giving of a handicap mark should only be used for horses that have shown ability,
eg finished in a place. Those that fail in their first three attempts can stay in Maiden races until they do qualify. |
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No they can't stay in maiden races unless we introduce a new series of rubbish maidens.
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There can easily be graded maidens for horses that have run unplaced 3 times but at the moment, if a trainer does not see a horse as capable of winning a good maiden, it has 3 runs with various reasons why it can't get too close to the winner. wrong trip, wrong track, wrong tactics. we all know the form and have to live with it. Nobody is forced to bet on any race so be selective. Ignore class 5 handicaps for a start.
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I'd hate any change personally , part of my strategy is " guessing " which handicap outsiders have hidden talents for one reason or another as are always highlighted in the timeform narrative , like my big prices so leave well alone please
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The second in the race under review improved 31 pounds on its last run according to the racing post h/cappers. That started at 33/1.
Handicapping is not a precise science. If the others don't run to form, who's fault is that? And in its next race the winner ran to its earlier racing post rating of 53. You're taking too much for granted with regard to ratings. The winner carried top weight and won a length, so it doesn't look like the O/H rating was too far out. I can't see anything wrong in the result. |
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The handicap mark it was given looks fair.
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Shouldn't even look at OR as a criteria as the world have full access to those , it's the hidden stuff that can produce big priced winners.
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3.30 Bath ....Carmarthen running off 63 in a 0-55 race! Why do they allow this?
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First at Bath a good example of what is wrong. Nad Alshiba Green 6/8 6/9 8/9 in 3 maidens. Given a rating of 60 which looked high, Oisin booked, backed down to favourite and wins 3 lengths. Fine if you follow Oisin or Mick Appleby but not if you follow form. As it happened, I was out all day and had a very quick look at my mobile to see Oisin on the first 2 favs and backed both. The other one had every right to be fav and finished fourth.
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Most important factor as you know though Sage is h/cap debut and if you can ever extract the word significant from the timeform narrative together with another half dozen examples you have the best chance of finding the " hidden talents "
Personally i think " form " is outdated , OR are totally worthless as a criteria and also i've never any interest who's riding the horse as nobody knows the calibre of ride about to happen , not even the jockey as they have good days and not so good the same as us throughout our working lives. Think majority of times punters underestimate the accuracy of the exchange market and what is already factored in that every man and his dog is aware of but the hidden talents are where the angles and big prices are if you're patient enough to accept a few consecutive losers without deviating from the strategy. Good job we're all different in our approaches though mate otherwise there'd be no exchange , good luck today |