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OilyWragg
02 Jul 24 13:05
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Date Joined: 17 Feb 11
| Topic/replies: 2,334 | Blogger: OilyWragg's blog
Anyone having any luck creating a methods/systems, dont expect you to divulge of course. I joined horseracebase a couple of months ago after seeing that others on here were also enrolled, no luck so far Sad Tried all sorts of weird and wonderful combinations, backfitting is easy of course.

Anyone? without the obvious, dont work etc etc

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Replies: 14
By:
OilyWragg
When: 02 Jul 24 13:42
Using the 'dig' thing, 10lb claiming jockeys in Handicap Hurdles, horse priced 11/10 to 11/1, simple enough system with 18% strike rate showing decent returns at Bfsp (backfitted of course)
By:
tanglefoot
When: 02 Jul 24 13:49
OW is the horseracing base sub £25,are there no proven systems from subscribers to try.
By:
OilyWragg
When: 02 Jul 24 13:55
Not that I can find but who would give away a winning system?

I'm more than impressed with the site, well worth the money, probably too much on the site totake in be honest, so many options and so many things to look at. The System Builder is well impressive, still a novice but enjoying the challenge so far.
By:
top2rated
When: 02 Jul 24 14:06
Saved this one several years ago...have kept it purely out of interest



By:
OilyWragg
When: 02 Jul 24 14:16
Brilliant top2rated and thank you.
By:
OilyWragg
When: 02 Jul 24 15:33
2,4,6,16 all claiming jockeys in the 3.33, fingers crossed.
By:
OilyWragg
When: 02 Jul 24 15:34
Sent a pm top2rated.
By:
fairweather
When: 02 Jul 24 16:56
I had to change the syphon on mine the other day, flushes nicely now Cool
By:
OilyWragg
When: 05 Jul 24 14:37
Sea Regal 2.40.
By:
OilyWragg
When: 05 Jul 24 14:42
Not a good start.
By:
wondersobright
When: 05 Jul 24 14:53
10lb claiming jockeys in Handicap Hurdles, horse priced 11/10 to 11/1, simple enough system with 18% strike rate showing decent returns at Bfsp (backfitted of course)

the issue with this OR is you've subdivided too much
if you look up degrees of freedom in stats that will explain why

general trend for claimers in excess of 7lbs...
shows a profit around 3% @ BSP before comm
almost 5 figs for number of qualifiers in the last decade so a robust sample
wouldn't want to be laying them but not enough there to back them blind imo

2 questions...
why hcap hurdles and not non-hcap hurdles or hcaps within other divisions
and why 11/10 to 11/1 price range?
By:
wondersobright
When: 05 Jul 24 14:59
just looking up on pf there's a marked diff between UK & IRE figs
By:
OilyWragg
When: 05 Jul 24 15:11
Max claim in Irleand for NH is 7lbs I think?

Yes you can go higher than 11/1 but the reduced strike rate would make the long losing runs unbearable.
Why Handicap Hurdle?...simply because they have the best stats.

And of course, its backfitted and yet to be tested, current losing run is 12.
By:
wondersobright
When: 05 Jul 24 15:38
Max claim in Irleand for NH is 7lbs I think?
yes it is for NH

Yes you can go higher than 11/1 but the reduced strike rate would make the long losing runs unbearable.
no issue because stakes can be adjusted for prices, which reduces exposure in losing runs

Why Handicap Hurdle?...simply because they have the best stats.
that's what I expected you to say ie it can't otherwise be logically explained

splitting the stats up for (1) code (2) race type (3) odds
having already seperated for weight claimed, its too much to have enough confidence that the results you observe aren't just random chance

be lucky
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