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26 Jun 24
13:48
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18 Jul 02
After another amazing, exhilarating, Royal Ascot I have stepped back for a few days to reflect on the state of the markets in 2024.
Firstly the bookmakers, who are now all the same, basically mean moneylenders. Their business model is predicated on attracting problem gamblers and novice young/new gamblers, to their massive overround products of football build-a-bets and ACCAs. If they are lucky those free spins will then get the same persons addicted to ‘not possible to win long term’ slots and casino. Their algorithms ruthlessly identify successful punters, Arbers and matched betters, who are instantly gubbed with those bland closure emails.
Those same novice punters are being poisoned by bookmakers adverts and social media. Here several racing influencers (you all know the main one here Neil!) post endless blogs with their huge bets, huge profits and champagne lifestyles. How many times do you see a fake B367 screenshot showing a million to one football double landed followed by a link to a subscription service. All this media leads to unrealistic expectations for them. I am sure that such tweets are NEVER monitored by the gambling commission.
Even on the rare occasion bets are taken on new punters these are at terrible odds. Bookmakers have cynically taken advantage of the ending of the on course SP process brought about by covid to massively increase overrounds. It is very disappointing that official horse racing tv channels and administration (BHA etc) have never challenged this. Finally racing media all seem to be in the pocket of the bookmakers and are not independent. They always focus on the sp price (not exchange price) in race buildups and focus on the so called ‘big betting race of the day’, which surprise surprise has the biggest overround.
In summary the ONLY way to ever make long term profit using the bookmakers is matched betting, where you betting life will only last six months max before the algorithm gubbs you.
Now to the exchanges. It is strikingly obvious that the Betfair markets have also undergone massive changes over the last year. These days markets are totally illiquid until up to ten minutes before off-time. From then to the off I frequently see massive movements, especially on the favourite. These include ominous drifts, which are nearly all rewarded with a poor run or slow break from the stalls. Gone are the days when hard work, formbook & race replay study will yield a reasonable profit from racing.
This also indicates that the big hitters do not get involved early. I think the main reasons for this are the affordability checks. Nearly everyone is now restricted by the bookmakers so can not get on early but use Betfair instead. These big hitters only bet On course at big festivals, again due to lack of liquidity. On course bookmakers are not any better than off course firms. They all offer uniform prices on each horse then immediately arb onto Betfair. (I exclude ****sports from this comment btw).
For the first time since in joined Betfair in 2002 and see overrounds of 105% up to 2 hours before a race with £2,000 matched only. The game is rapidly going underwater. Dare I say this is the direct result of the affordability checks driving big stake punters to the black market? Maybe we will see a return of big punters to the track, but I doubt it. In running betting is dead already, due to drones and racing datastreams having totally automated the process. There is no room left now for the skilled racereader with fast fingers. I am sure that Betfair have massively reduced commission income nowadays, hence the premium charge and heavy promotion of their sportsbook.
Maybe I am way to cynical in my old age, but I am very pessimistic for the future on horse race gambling. Please share your own opinions on the general state of the game.
Firstly the bookmakers, who are now all the same, basically mean moneylenders. Their business model is predicated on attracting problem gamblers and novice young/new gamblers, to their massive overround products of football build-a-bets and ACCAs. If they are lucky those free spins will then get the same persons addicted to ‘not possible to win long term’ slots and casino. Their algorithms ruthlessly identify successful punters, Arbers and matched betters, who are instantly gubbed with those bland closure emails.
Those same novice punters are being poisoned by bookmakers adverts and social media. Here several racing influencers (you all know the main one here Neil!) post endless blogs with their huge bets, huge profits and champagne lifestyles. How many times do you see a fake B367 screenshot showing a million to one football double landed followed by a link to a subscription service. All this media leads to unrealistic expectations for them. I am sure that such tweets are NEVER monitored by the gambling commission.
Even on the rare occasion bets are taken on new punters these are at terrible odds. Bookmakers have cynically taken advantage of the ending of the on course SP process brought about by covid to massively increase overrounds. It is very disappointing that official horse racing tv channels and administration (BHA etc) have never challenged this. Finally racing media all seem to be in the pocket of the bookmakers and are not independent. They always focus on the sp price (not exchange price) in race buildups and focus on the so called ‘big betting race of the day’, which surprise surprise has the biggest overround.
In summary the ONLY way to ever make long term profit using the bookmakers is matched betting, where you betting life will only last six months max before the algorithm gubbs you.
Now to the exchanges. It is strikingly obvious that the Betfair markets have also undergone massive changes over the last year. These days markets are totally illiquid until up to ten minutes before off-time. From then to the off I frequently see massive movements, especially on the favourite. These include ominous drifts, which are nearly all rewarded with a poor run or slow break from the stalls. Gone are the days when hard work, formbook & race replay study will yield a reasonable profit from racing.
This also indicates that the big hitters do not get involved early. I think the main reasons for this are the affordability checks. Nearly everyone is now restricted by the bookmakers so can not get on early but use Betfair instead. These big hitters only bet On course at big festivals, again due to lack of liquidity. On course bookmakers are not any better than off course firms. They all offer uniform prices on each horse then immediately arb onto Betfair. (I exclude ****sports from this comment btw).
For the first time since in joined Betfair in 2002 and see overrounds of 105% up to 2 hours before a race with £2,000 matched only. The game is rapidly going underwater. Dare I say this is the direct result of the affordability checks driving big stake punters to the black market? Maybe we will see a return of big punters to the track, but I doubt it. In running betting is dead already, due to drones and racing datastreams having totally automated the process. There is no room left now for the skilled racereader with fast fingers. I am sure that Betfair have massively reduced commission income nowadays, hence the premium charge and heavy promotion of their sportsbook.
Maybe I am way to cynical in my old age, but I am very pessimistic for the future on horse race gambling. Please share your own opinions on the general state of the game.
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Yes, the game is in trouble. I agree with many of your points but I had to smile at 'skilled racereader with fast fingers'. I have no problem with their demise, as that form of betting could not last.
The more that did it, the fraction earlier in a race bets had to be placed and that spiralled until it was guesswork. I have only ever known one two genuine in-running punters from my trips around the UK tracks. One realised that betting £2000 to win £20 and then spending £12 on two ice-creams was a bit daft, while the other did £15k in the last furlong at Southwell once and jacked it in. No, in-running betting was, and remains, the road to ruin. One failure at, say 20/1 ON, means 20 races of profit wiped out. There also seems to be a vain hope that the big punters will return to track. But, as you say, they will not. Why? Because most of them are older now, or even dead, and the younger brigade do not play horse racing to the degree their elders used to. As for the liquidity in markets on here. Yes, I have noticed that and even looking at the odds for a race up until 10 minutes before the off is a waste of effort. But, our job is to find a way to use these changed conditions to keep winning! I think there are a couple of angles developing but only for those with patience and tight control. We shall see... |
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Make the exchanges illegal. Force the filth to price up markets off their own bat. Of course we all know that's impossible and gambling will die instantly. The dopes need to look at the exchange to price up a coin toss ffs.
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"They all offer uniform prices on each horse then immediately arb onto Betfair. (I exclude ****sports from this comment btw)". not all - on course expenses are such that simply 'arbing on betfair' is not a viable model. many on course bookmakers will quite often lay even above exchange odds on shorter priced horses to get them into the book. ****sports are not bookmakers on course they just 'lay' bets without any attempt to 'make a book' - the punters make their book - that's their prerogative of course but unlike nearly all on course firms (since the departure of Ladbrokes etc from the ring) they have significant high street and online presence to balance their books.
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Knight,
I guess you are correct. There are perhaps no big hitting young punters coming into the game. Society has changed and thats fair enough. The only thing they are doing is 'racing influencing' on twatter which is very dangerous for the gullible punting novice. Endlessly seeing 'Neil' and his carefree lifestyle and massive bets on favorites is not good for the game at all |
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who is Neil?
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Channing possibly?
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all about age, very few under 55 bet on the horses, younger more likely to bet on the football.
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The fake gurus are out of control.
There’s one chap on Twitter who posted a pic of him drinking champagne on a private plane along with his profits for the week. I thought this sort of thing died with an Elliot short but there you go. And Bet MGM have realised their target audience are a bunch of idiots because their ads are now just poorly cut together from various random sentences from everybody hates Chris. |
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There’s one chap on Twitter who posted a pic of him drinking champagne on a private plane along with his profits for the week.
join his "club" for £40 a month ?? spaces available |
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ask the dc on the plane to poast his portal..usually scarper..similar to here.
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I’ve repeated this before, when betfair did multiples it was exchanche prices and we had a edge, that was closed, then we could do more than one in a race we had a edge, that was closed, then multiples moved to sportsbook and we could still beat them by taking sp and not the short prices they offered, then that was closed, so now if you want a multiple it has to be on at there short price offered not sp and not more than one horse in a race, so multiples on here now finished, you can still get most of the above on the machine in the shop and everyday they offered bet £10 double get free £10 bet in shop, if your on the lowest commission rate on here you get zero offers, so you just have to take advantage of what’s out there as the game is up really on here apart from the big bsp on the exchanges,
You also have to ask why for years the on course market suppressed big prices on outsiders as I’ve never witnessed big sp and bsp prices ever like we have had since we stopped using there on course market for the sp |
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dominuet, why exclude ****, they used to (still?) send teams of arbers around London. Why change business practice.
I don't think young uns want to know racing nowadays, hardly got a good reputation, if ever even mentioned in the media. Singles allowed on football as well as any other bet you want. Getting filled on here is a nightmare and the 2% comm will get you on PC quick if you're half sharp. Maybe the tracks are where its at, but who's 20yo now living out of hotels with a rucksack and a pair of cargo shorts under the jeans in case you got rolled. Brilliant days 30 year ago. |
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gambling ruins lives..how many on here never miss a hour?
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Neil is in Monaco today. lots of views on twitter. £20k on red for starters
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exchange multiples were good, did not last long, think you can still take sp in multiples on sportsbook
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Logged on last night for The Curragh -couldn't believe how light the matched volume was for the First race and decided to jut sit back and watch.
The First 3 maiden races had matched volumes below €190KThe First handicap had a matched volume of €75K -the secondhandicap €128K. This was The Curragh on Irish Derby weekend and more importantly it was the last Friday of the month -payday.What's gone wrong -is all the money going on the football,are the horses yesterdays game or do people not have discretionary income. |
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Horses are yesterday's game, imo.
I suspect most betting on horses is done by people my age (50s) or older, people who grew up when the only product offered by bookies was horses and dogs, so if you wanted to gamble you had to make the effort to learn about a new sport. Since the bookies started offering football, golf, cricket etc seriously, people have the opportunity to bet on a sport they already know and follow, rather than learning a new one. I do not see any way back from that, and the march of time will only make the effect more pronounced. |