Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
After backing a winner last night that was notably weak in the pre race market, and after a series of well backed losers this month, I decided to run some numbers on the past year's trends in price taken v ISP. I confirmed some suspicions.
Found that on the price taken on here, regardless of whether taken early or immediately pre race, of my losing bets, I've beaten the ISP by an average of 2.45 points.
With winning bets the average is 1.52 points.
So as I suspected, market strength is no longer a factor in determining likely outcome.
In days gone by, a shortening price was always a positive sign. Now its more of a comfort blanket, no real benefit at all.
Found that on the price taken on here, regardless of whether taken early or immediately pre race, of my losing bets, I've beaten the ISP by an average of 2.45 points.
With winning bets the average is 1.52 points.
So as I suspected, market strength is no longer a factor in determining likely outcome.
In days gone by, a shortening price was always a positive sign. Now its more of a comfort blanket, no real benefit at all.
Show More
Was your winner Travis 9.0pm ? I have that as a drifter 5.3-7.2. If you're averaging 2.45pts over ISP you must be winning nicely. Id expect winning bets to be lower average, as the winners will be shorter prices. E.G you'd struggle to get +2.45 average on 5/2 shots, but may get that on 10/1 shots. How big is the sample size and total of winners ?
Returning just under 23% on t/o from a strike around 1 in 5. And yes, the figures are probably skewed by the higher margins on the bigger prices. But the general point still holds I think. Positive market moves are not the indicator of success they once were.
It was Travis yes.
It was Travis yes.
Apologied TtT. Its the other way round. 23% strike for 20% return.
I focus on the top end of the market. I find alot of the winners have had some support at some point, but the ones that are bet really heavily dont win. And also the ones that drift a good way dont win either. The rest of the winners are bigger odds initially than I even look at.
Agree with the point here...think lots of artificially short prices and phantom gambles created by the bookmakers to intice folk in... think betfair generally a more accurate pictire of horses chances than the bookmakers .
Hulk can start a gamble on any horse in any race. The man's a god.
De_Man -That's inevitable when you look at the percentage books at the respective SPs. But I also think there is a different underlying dynamic with price movements at work here. My instinct has always to be to get on early at a fair price. Nowadays that is often a bad move, but predicting the times when it's not, is tricky.
" think betfair generally a more accurate picture of horses chances than the bookmakers ." It's betfair where Tiger is laying 'em though so if he's winning they are overbet here too.
There's some great value out there with all these falsies
Biggest mover today was Amsterdam 4.07 race. Was 9/2 early, went off 9/4. A fast finishing second but never looked like winning.
Stable second string won it at 11/1. You'd think they knew.
However,they dont all get beat, and some days a fair few go in.
Yes Steerforth..i too was similar in trying to get on the night before etc to get value etc but i now no longer do that as i find myself in a poorer position than if waited..maybe my tactic of watching videos and trying to evaluate formlines and previous runs is now outdated or not very good on my part or maybe times have changed but find trying to find a winner impossible with way industry has gone...form used to invariably hold up largely and id try to find a race of potential like when i backed Symbol of Hope fto and thought race to follow id back runners from it etc..that doesnt appear to hold up now that much..Think Betfair and laying changed the landscape too much... i think i might try my hand at laying although i dont really get the kick outa that ..
Yeah Howard i understand .. i always wondered if could make a living paying for a pitch at a track and do similar to what they do.... offer reduced odds and lay back on betfair to secure a position..but think overheads too big...
Laying requires a totally different mindset. You dont get the same buzz as backing a winner. Often its just sheer relief at the end of the race. I fire my bets into the market, like a fisherman setting his nets, then check later to see how its going. I only watch a handful of races each day.No form study whatsoever.
Yeah Tame the Tiger...i think they know tbh or have a good idea..my top peeve is that..overlooking the stablemate..means lack of research on my part and annoying when ya do early doubles like Giselle/Portland and the stablemate Bedtime Story goes in when ya shoulda saved on it etc ..bye and large i think they have an idea in that scenerio..that was backed late against the fav.. Perienial looked very straightforward and knew its job so ya d think they d have an idea at home..Skidmark on the fav not ideal either though for landing a gamble ya d want Oisin..
Yes Freddie..Hulk is your man is wanting markets moved lol or the kid in the back office in PP on his headphones playing music and mucking about lol...
Yeah Tame the Tiger..agree re mid market..over years if i seen 9/2 3rd/4th fav id have a go..surprisingly successful for a time..
Sunak and Starmer and Trump and Biden what an absolutely ridiculously poor standard of candidates
I have noticed many times lately that a horse that I (stupidly) back in the morning drifts all day only to come back to the morning price late on. Trouble is if you fancy one, the morning price is tempting. Leicester Square was a case in point yesterday. I took 5.8 and it drifted out to 8 before coming right back to 5.5 or so at the off. In running the same thing. I think it just about hit 10 at one stage but for good reasons. Someone with better tech than me can confirm.
SF - this is absolutely one of the common patterns I'm seeing regularly. Happens very often, and makes timing tricky when your'e thinking - "a bird in hand".
It's impossible to anticipate price movements from anonymous numbers on a screen. How can you possibly know which way a price is going to go just on the basis of staring at the numbers?
Twenty-five years ago, on-course, it was possible for a punter to use his eyes, his ears and his experience to predict where the market on a horse was going, and gauge the right moment to back it. You learnt from experience which books extended horses because they genuinely knew it wan't off, and which ones did it just because they didn't like the horse in the paddock or because the Sporting Life hadn't tipped it. You could see which ones were desperate to lay the favourite to get cash in the hod to pay out the previous race, or because they had a lunatic sticker-in.
Sometimes it was as obvious as seeing a mate of a horse's connections standing next to the joint.
You can't see any of that now just by looking at numbers on a screen.
Twenty-five years ago, on-course, it was possible for a punter to use his eyes, his ears and his experience to predict where the market on a horse was going, and gauge the right moment to back it. You learnt from experience which books extended horses because they genuinely knew it wan't off, and which ones did it just because they didn't like the horse in the paddock or because the Sporting Life hadn't tipped it. You could see which ones were desperate to lay the favourite to get cash in the hod to pay out the previous race, or because they had a lunatic sticker-in.
Sometimes it was as obvious as seeing a mate of a horse's connections standing next to the joint.
You can't see any of that now just by looking at numbers on a screen.
Nobody is suggesting you can "know" for any individual horse or race, but it is possible to notice patterns. Whether or not there's any significance in that I wouldn't really know, but I'd be naturally sceptical, I just thought I'd point out that it's something I've noticed happening quite frequently, and I stand by that. The original point was about shortening prices not being as positive a sign as they once were, (and vice versa).
bllx
lay one for £100 at 8.2 in the next and stick £100 up to back it at 8.4
spoiler alert. your 8.4 isn't getting matched and padi's £108 bot is moving it into 6.8
with a resultant move in price at the bookies.
not rocket science, think he's sitting there watching you lock in a profit ? he's a bookie ffs, doesn't want anyone winning bar him.
lay one for £100 at 8.2 in the next and stick £100 up to back it at 8.4
spoiler alert. your 8.4 isn't getting matched and padi's £108 bot is moving it into 6.8
with a resultant move in price at the bookies.
not rocket science, think he's sitting there watching you lock in a profit ? he's a bookie ffs, doesn't want anyone winning bar him.
go ahead and do it. report the movement back (bet it's not for you) ..
finishes 8th.
that's weird there was good money for that, saw it go from 8.2 to 6.8 on the exchange ?
yeah, ummm ...
that's weird there was good money for that, saw it go from 8.2 to 6.8 on the exchange ?
yeah, ummm ...
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539