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01 Jun 24
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Thought i'd bring this up from 2007 to show what this forum used to be like, this is the initial post but it goes on for 36 pages, ie) one thread.
TheKid
TheKid16 Dec 07 21:43Joined: 29 Nov 02 | Topic/replies: 19 | Blogger: TheKid's blog
Was an article in todays Sunday Independent about an Irish Professional Gambler.
Gambling on beating the odds
Johnny Ward meets professional gambler Declan Meagher whose strict -- and profitable -- betting regime is built on self-control and hard work
Sunday December 16 2007
W E dine over steak and wine. A few weeks previously, I had become acquainted with Declan Meagher on a weekend in Milan, and had made my maiden meeting with his curious profession.
Now, he discusses his two-bed house (it was a three-bed, but one was converted to accommodate a jacuzzi -- serenity after a gruelling day's graft). He tells me that he eats out at least once weekly with his girlfriend, and plans to exchange his present 2005 car for a 2008 Audi TT in the New Year.
There are two common misconceptions about gambling: the first is that gamblers in general bet in order to make money; the second is that it is impossible to make money gambling. Declan proves the falsity of the latter, and is a rare exception to the former untruth.
Consider what I will call the line of equilibrium. A bad gambler -- that is to say the average gambler -- starts the day at that line. Once he starts losing, he will not be content until he has returned to the line of equilibrium, or back level.
Should he have the fortune of augmenting the bulk of his wallet, the temptation is to play with his profits, either due to brashness or dissatisfaction with the amount of money he has won. Sooner or later, he will be back at the line of equilibrium.
To Declan, either scenario is anathema. He is a professional gambler. "I used to work with racehorses for Dermot Weld," he explains, "and went over to Moyglare Stud most winters to break in the yearlings. I handed in my notice around February 2002 and was planning to stay in Moyglare for a few more months.
"I was, however, already making money on Betfair and although I hadn't told anyone yet, it was my intention to quit Moyglare and go full-time."
Circumstance would accelerate his departure. "I had a pain in my chest the morning of Istabraq's last Champion Hurdle run when he was pulled up. I went into work anyway and rode out one lot but it was agony and I had to go home.
"Nobody in Moyglare would believe me, as I was only telling them the day before of the excuses I used to come up with to get off school during Cheltenham. I went to the doctor and he reckoned that my lung had collapsed. It happened before with the other side so he sent me to hospital -- but I postponed it until after the last race. It had collapsed, though, and I took that as my opportunity to give up working with horses and go gambling full-time. I've been doing it ever since."
On the weekend in Milan, Declan placed a few football bets and laid (backed against) Manchester United moments before they took the lead against Blackburn.
The average gambler would have volleyed an insult towards the TV, or at the very least given a facial expression that betrayed frustration. Declan was without emotion -- the stoic demeanour of self-discipline, without which no professional gambler will prosper long-term.
While he does bet on football and other sports, Declan estimates that about 95 per cent of his bets are on horses; more precisely, he has developed a very complex system based on his own pricing-up of English races.
"At the moment I mainly operate in the place markets and I lay or back to get a return of 5,000. So if I laid a horse at even money, my stake would be 2,500; if I backed a horse at 4/1, it would be 1,000.
"I normally price up the market and I'll then back if I think the price is good and lay if I think it's bad."
This is considerably more convoluted than what it may seem. He has put into practice a template whereby, based primarily on the odds in a win market, he can -- taking into account a margin of error -- automatically instruct his computer to lay or back horses on the place market.
In essence (or otherwise), the theories of probability and variance dictate Declan's betting. Consider that he did pass maths in school, and it reinforces how ultimately redundant this country's Leaving Cert programme is.
On the off-chance that you are beginning to consider professional gambling an appealing alternative to your present bread-earner, the 31-year-old stresses that it is far from easy.
"Betfair, like bookmakers, have to make a profit and over the course of the year I pay them quite a bit in commission even though I'm on the lowest commission level -- two per cent of my winnings. At my current betting levels I would pay about 125,000 per year in commission, which means I have to make that much just to break even.
"In saying that, I'm obviously making more than that or I wouldn't be doing it -- but it takes a lot of work and self-control. You need an edge for a start and while it's possible to find one, it's up to any potential gambler to do his research and come up with possible flaws in a particular market that he can take advantage of."
His philosophy on sports betting -- and in particular football -- is perhaps of more pertinent intrigue to the standard punter.
Noel Browne's captivating biography Against The Tide unwittingly promotes the perils of that approach in politics, but it is a perfectly pragmatic policy in gambling.
Topical examples of Declan's bets include: backing Croatia on the premise that England were grossly over-rated by the odds; opposing plunged-on Russia even though they needed a win and Israel had no apparent motivation; backing Milan against Celtic due to the over-reaction to the draw being sufficient for Milan; and laying Ricky Hatton and some of the flood of sentimental money.
As with life, there are highs and lows in gambling. The crux is to identify every winner and loser as merely a dot on a vast map. One can determine probability, but predicting the future is a step beyond.
"I try not to let big wins or losses affect me," the Leixlip native stresses, "but if I had a really bad run it might affect me a bit. Sometimes it seems everything goes wrong. I remember one time I was having a bad month and a bad day. I then backed four horses for a place in a 15-runner handicap.
"I also place-laid three horses whose win odds were 8/1, 16/1 and 25/1. I can't remember the place odds but the horses I laid came in first, second and third. I just looked at the screen and laughed. Stuff like that happens and you have to just get on with it: if it affects your decisions, you're in trouble.
"I've obviously also had times when everything goes right and Denman winning the Hennessy was a real good result for me. I had Denman backed and laid a few for a place. I won 16,000, which is the most I ever won on a single race."
Without resorting to gratuitous praise for the betting exchanges -- they, like bookmakers, are about making money -- it would be virtually impossible for professional gamblers to operate without them. Traditional bookmakers have no problem accommodating your bets -- as long as you are losing. Otherwise, they generally have no interest in your custom.
Declan does all his gambling on Betfair, and does not envisage a career change for the foreseeable future.
"I hope to make enough money in the next few years to invest in some businesses -- maybe open my own restaurant or something like that. I'm also getting more into poker and when I get better at that I might spend more time on it as I find it a fascinating game."
He recalls meeting his girlfriend for the first time at a popular Dublin nightclub, where -- typical of its ilk -- the racket imposed by the DJ made conversation a chore.
"She texted me the next day and asked me what it was like being a professional gardener."
Four years later and he nonchalantly proclaims that "she has become quite good at poker".
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Wonder how he gets on in the Place markets now?
If you want to read the whole thread type in the thread title and go back to 2007.
TheKid
TheKid16 Dec 07 21:43Joined: 29 Nov 02 | Topic/replies: 19 | Blogger: TheKid's blog
Was an article in todays Sunday Independent about an Irish Professional Gambler.
Gambling on beating the odds
Johnny Ward meets professional gambler Declan Meagher whose strict -- and profitable -- betting regime is built on self-control and hard work
Sunday December 16 2007
W E dine over steak and wine. A few weeks previously, I had become acquainted with Declan Meagher on a weekend in Milan, and had made my maiden meeting with his curious profession.
Now, he discusses his two-bed house (it was a three-bed, but one was converted to accommodate a jacuzzi -- serenity after a gruelling day's graft). He tells me that he eats out at least once weekly with his girlfriend, and plans to exchange his present 2005 car for a 2008 Audi TT in the New Year.
There are two common misconceptions about gambling: the first is that gamblers in general bet in order to make money; the second is that it is impossible to make money gambling. Declan proves the falsity of the latter, and is a rare exception to the former untruth.
Consider what I will call the line of equilibrium. A bad gambler -- that is to say the average gambler -- starts the day at that line. Once he starts losing, he will not be content until he has returned to the line of equilibrium, or back level.
Should he have the fortune of augmenting the bulk of his wallet, the temptation is to play with his profits, either due to brashness or dissatisfaction with the amount of money he has won. Sooner or later, he will be back at the line of equilibrium.
To Declan, either scenario is anathema. He is a professional gambler. "I used to work with racehorses for Dermot Weld," he explains, "and went over to Moyglare Stud most winters to break in the yearlings. I handed in my notice around February 2002 and was planning to stay in Moyglare for a few more months.
"I was, however, already making money on Betfair and although I hadn't told anyone yet, it was my intention to quit Moyglare and go full-time."
Circumstance would accelerate his departure. "I had a pain in my chest the morning of Istabraq's last Champion Hurdle run when he was pulled up. I went into work anyway and rode out one lot but it was agony and I had to go home.
"Nobody in Moyglare would believe me, as I was only telling them the day before of the excuses I used to come up with to get off school during Cheltenham. I went to the doctor and he reckoned that my lung had collapsed. It happened before with the other side so he sent me to hospital -- but I postponed it until after the last race. It had collapsed, though, and I took that as my opportunity to give up working with horses and go gambling full-time. I've been doing it ever since."
On the weekend in Milan, Declan placed a few football bets and laid (backed against) Manchester United moments before they took the lead against Blackburn.
The average gambler would have volleyed an insult towards the TV, or at the very least given a facial expression that betrayed frustration. Declan was without emotion -- the stoic demeanour of self-discipline, without which no professional gambler will prosper long-term.
While he does bet on football and other sports, Declan estimates that about 95 per cent of his bets are on horses; more precisely, he has developed a very complex system based on his own pricing-up of English races.
"At the moment I mainly operate in the place markets and I lay or back to get a return of 5,000. So if I laid a horse at even money, my stake would be 2,500; if I backed a horse at 4/1, it would be 1,000.
"I normally price up the market and I'll then back if I think the price is good and lay if I think it's bad."
This is considerably more convoluted than what it may seem. He has put into practice a template whereby, based primarily on the odds in a win market, he can -- taking into account a margin of error -- automatically instruct his computer to lay or back horses on the place market.
In essence (or otherwise), the theories of probability and variance dictate Declan's betting. Consider that he did pass maths in school, and it reinforces how ultimately redundant this country's Leaving Cert programme is.
On the off-chance that you are beginning to consider professional gambling an appealing alternative to your present bread-earner, the 31-year-old stresses that it is far from easy.
"Betfair, like bookmakers, have to make a profit and over the course of the year I pay them quite a bit in commission even though I'm on the lowest commission level -- two per cent of my winnings. At my current betting levels I would pay about 125,000 per year in commission, which means I have to make that much just to break even.
"In saying that, I'm obviously making more than that or I wouldn't be doing it -- but it takes a lot of work and self-control. You need an edge for a start and while it's possible to find one, it's up to any potential gambler to do his research and come up with possible flaws in a particular market that he can take advantage of."
His philosophy on sports betting -- and in particular football -- is perhaps of more pertinent intrigue to the standard punter.
Noel Browne's captivating biography Against The Tide unwittingly promotes the perils of that approach in politics, but it is a perfectly pragmatic policy in gambling.
Topical examples of Declan's bets include: backing Croatia on the premise that England were grossly over-rated by the odds; opposing plunged-on Russia even though they needed a win and Israel had no apparent motivation; backing Milan against Celtic due to the over-reaction to the draw being sufficient for Milan; and laying Ricky Hatton and some of the flood of sentimental money.
As with life, there are highs and lows in gambling. The crux is to identify every winner and loser as merely a dot on a vast map. One can determine probability, but predicting the future is a step beyond.
"I try not to let big wins or losses affect me," the Leixlip native stresses, "but if I had a really bad run it might affect me a bit. Sometimes it seems everything goes wrong. I remember one time I was having a bad month and a bad day. I then backed four horses for a place in a 15-runner handicap.
"I also place-laid three horses whose win odds were 8/1, 16/1 and 25/1. I can't remember the place odds but the horses I laid came in first, second and third. I just looked at the screen and laughed. Stuff like that happens and you have to just get on with it: if it affects your decisions, you're in trouble.
"I've obviously also had times when everything goes right and Denman winning the Hennessy was a real good result for me. I had Denman backed and laid a few for a place. I won 16,000, which is the most I ever won on a single race."
Without resorting to gratuitous praise for the betting exchanges -- they, like bookmakers, are about making money -- it would be virtually impossible for professional gamblers to operate without them. Traditional bookmakers have no problem accommodating your bets -- as long as you are losing. Otherwise, they generally have no interest in your custom.
Declan does all his gambling on Betfair, and does not envisage a career change for the foreseeable future.
"I hope to make enough money in the next few years to invest in some businesses -- maybe open my own restaurant or something like that. I'm also getting more into poker and when I get better at that I might spend more time on it as I find it a fascinating game."
He recalls meeting his girlfriend for the first time at a popular Dublin nightclub, where -- typical of its ilk -- the racket imposed by the DJ made conversation a chore.
"She texted me the next day and asked me what it was like being a professional gardener."
Four years later and he nonchalantly proclaims that "she has become quite good at poker".
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Wonder how he gets on in the Place markets now?
If you want to read the whole thread type in the thread title and go back to 2007.
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Replies: 7
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If you put up a posting like this now people moan about copying and pasting. Thanks for posting.
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What struck me about the whole 36 page thread was i hardly see any of the posters on here now and some very knowledgeable posters there were.
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Don`t spoil the end stewarts - I`m still reading the original post from 2007.
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There are two common misconceptions about gambling: the first is that gamblers in general bet in order to make money; the second is that it is impossible to make money gambling. Declan proves the falsity of the latter, and is a rare exception to the former untruth.
obv wrong. |
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The bigger the price, the less ha has on a horse then? I see.
I googled "Declan Meagher", and the first suggestion, surprise surprise, turned out to be: https://www.learnbetwin.com/author/admin/ I’ve just launched my Premium Advisory Service which will be an email/text service giving subscribers an average of 15-20 of my very best bets each week. Oh aye? I’m available to write article’s for your website/newspaper/magazine and also for any specialist research you might want done into any horse racing topic. Uh-huh. |
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I think if the income is 100% punting on horse racing then it should be recognised…
Punting on anything that moves and newspaper and media work with a bit here are there is 100% dreamland rubbish… I doubt any ‘pro’ out there would show a punting and expense sheet…… |
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Very difficult to have an horse racing advisory service when last moment on course betting can change your win selection eg early betting indicated in first race Epsom,New Charter was the business,but a flood of money for Teej A and u knew your early selection was toast.
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