the oaks 4.30 epsom

For me the race looked a nightmare , so I looked for the biggest priced runners with relatively decent form when the markets went up . Results were both thanks to 365, Caught u looking - 66s and War Chimes- 100s , both ew . Consolation is that at those prices its modest stakes .

Please do note that these stats do not say 'the horse in stall 1 or 2 never wins'. The stats are saying that the horse drawn in stall 1 or 2 is at a big disadvantage and tends to underperform spectacularly.

On Friday the Coronation Cup only has 6 runners so can not be analysed. The low drawn runners in the Oaks are Zeyaadah (stall 1) and Ocean Road (stall 2). Zeyaadah is currently second in the betting. The two highest stalls are occupied by Sherbert Lemon and Save A Forest. Neither are fancied.

On Saturday the low drawn runners in the Derby are Adayar (stall 1) and Third Realm (stall 2). Neither are fancied. The two highest drawn are John Leeper (12) and One Ruler (11). Again neither are fancied!
Cut /Paste from Flatstats

In recent years media pundits have picked up on the fact that being drawn low in the Epsom Derby is not a good thing. They have looked at the previous runnings of the race and determined that low drawn (especially stall 1) runners tend not to run as expected.

The 2020 Epsom Derby highlights this perfectly. The favourite was English King and he was drawn in stall 1. The third favourite was Mogul and he was drawn in stall 2. Both failed to place, finishing 5th and 6th respectively.

Two years prior to that race the odds-on favourite Saxon Warrior (drawn 1) could only finish 4th. Some state that the horse was 'unlucky' having stumbled at the start, did not get a clear run and was hampered 3f out, and then hung left in the finish. That's fair enough but it is totally possible that a better draw at the start could have alleviated those problems for the horse. The fact that he was drawn low, and then encountered those problems is a good example of how horses can lose because they can not get a good start to a race.

Draw biases are not always about a 'golden highway' and it is not always about low draw advantages on turning courses like Chester. Punters also seem to assume that draw biases can only happen in straight sprint races but this is not always the case. At some courses draw biases are created right at the start of long distance races. In particular at Epsom there is a draw bias against low drawn runners because at the start horses have to try and cross over to where the high drawn runners are in order to get a good position. If they fail that at the start then they can not get a good position for the rest of the race, or if they do manage to get over quite quickly then they may have used up vital reserves that are needed in the last furlong of the race.
Flatstats

We will find out later today if the experts on here who wrote off Secret Satire after her win at York were right or not. She is still my choice and with Oisin in good form, I will back him to use draw 3 to get a good position down the hill. Then it will be about whether she stays or not. My other choice is Ezeliya. I am a lifelong fan of Aga Khan horses and Dermot Weld does not send them here unless he thinks they are good enough to at least go close.

I backed EZELIYA at 14s earlier and had an e/w bet at 66s on Caught U LOOKING, I may look like a tit at 4.40 but I just cannot have YLANG YLANG

i like a few strings to my bow in these types of races full of unexposed lightly raced types and i thought dance sequance was a bit big at 20/1 yesterday and had a few quid ew ,was a decent 2yo group 3 winner and down the field in the gns this term after a decent neck 2nd in the nell gwyn ,needs to find a bit on last run but the step up in trip should suit and yard in good form and on breeding trip should be fine .

There has to be a concern about the form of DKW's stable. It can turn but it needs to bigtime.

DKW ?

Dermot Weld

I thought of Weld but the K put me off.

Young Rossa should collect his first classic Oaks today…..stamp his authority as a top grade 1 rider.

Same selections as sage,both fit many of the stats.

Good luck Foyles.

I just have one bet and it’s Hamish eachway.

I don’t think he’s taking on anything to be overly scared about…he’s in great form, looks like they laid him out for this after skipping the former ground at York, stable in form, sire had his best day ever winning round here.

He hasn’t competed too often at this level but his 2nd to Kryrios when that horse was at his peak is rock solid to me.

I think it’s there for the old boy to put this lot in their place.

I know Emily and FTF might have the legs on him but if they don’t bring their A game he will find them out.

Andrew Balding struggling a bit as well just 3/54. Turning into Tim Easterby.

good  thanks elg and good luck wi hamish ,i like the look of a couple of o,maras in the 2.35 obaan looks well handicaped and if i can get double figgas  ill have a pop  ,also blue for you ,frank up so i know what to expect but quite well weighted and around 20s on here smallish bets .

Andrew Balding 4 winners from last 6 runners.

You Got Me at 13.5 and Forst Fairly at 10.0 for me, both win and place. All the best.

No strong fancies for me but I've backed the Beckett outsider Seaward at  66/1 e.w.4 places.  I'm hoping she'll get a lead from her stablemate You Got To Me and stay on like she did at Chester.  The Cheshire Oaks form was probably decent, Galileo Dame had beaten Rubies are Red on her previous run, and Beeley, receiving 6lbs, had finished in front of Secret Satire. The stable seem to think the softer ground may be against Seaward and Forest Fairy is clearly their most likely winner but at the prices I'm hoping Silvestre can get her home in the first 4 or maybe even get his second Classic win of the season.

Charlie the climate King has just arrived at Epsom

.... by Helicopter

do as they say not do ^

The ol’ boy just couldn’t reel him back but he didn’t give up.

interesting race fav 6/4 not for me up in trip on this ground is a lay imo
also treasure 25s overpriced also have some 5pl
& the balding filly will be off the board 3pl lay

I like the Meade horse for a Place at least. 3/1 for a place 1-2-3-4 with local bookie.

Going ok
Trip ok
Trainer ok
Jockey ok

66/1 this morning - now 20/1 in general with bookies. Place will do I.

whatever wins it looks an extremely weak race

Treasure looked absolutely rock hard fit in the paddock imo.

backed Treasure and Caught u Looking both e/w, both should stay well.

Gut feeling tells me Beckett Wins.

Rubies Are Red EW

Epsom - Betfred Oaks - 31st May 2024

Ylang Ylang - Outright
6/1 Single @6.49/1 Boosted 

Ante-Post from mid-April
Fingers crossed

I made to princely profit of £7.50 on my Hamish each way so I dumped it all on the Aga Khan thing…bolted up over 10 at Navan…that will do for me.

2 quid on the fav

Camilla looks pissed

Ezelia will do for me.

Well done Gooner and Crippen.

This is game is easy boys

6/4 up in trip on soft ground.......................yeah

Dear Mr Moore

Please note that even the great Dancing Brave could not win with tactics like that. Eejit.

2nd and 4th and a short priced keep lay on dance seq landed plus the ew 4 places ........no cigar but a cigarillo will do !

good shout paulo47

... at Epsom

Well done paulo.

very well done luckyme

well done paulo!

Funny, I posted my selection earlier today. I just looked for it and it had gone.

I thought I bet that will win now the post has gone. That's why I posted so late.

Whats Aiden got to say about that then?

well done sageform an all winners!

Aiden said it was the wrong type of ground!!!

The fav was ridden to stay, but obviously found nothing at the 2f pole; the other one was devoid of speed and stamina. Back to the drawing board.

I think AOB would say "I gave the wrong instructions for both horses".

Ylang Ylang soesn't stay 12f  at least not on softish ground. Seemed just to flatten out at the 2 pole.

May 31, 2024 -- 4:38PM, acey deucy wrote:

Whats Aiden got to say about that then?

shoemark's fault

Ylang Ylang was too far behind to win in any case... you can't give away that much ground and expect to win.

ITV is still eulogising about the ride of Moore on Luxembourg. However, no mention of his ride on Ylang Ylang though.

the dubawi cant win an epsom classic bollix is over ,just the cant win from stall 11 but 10 or 12 ya can bollix to be smashed !

When is anyone going to be brave enough to say that the Ballydoyle 3yos are a pretty average bunch? Just because they were good 2yos does not justify all the hype. You might as well say that the best 3yo middle distance horse will win the Triumph hard held! Ylang Ylang was backed off the boards making the winner very backable. I love those green colours.

The winner was born on St Patrick's Day.

When is anyone going to be brave enough to say that the Ballydoyle 3yos are a pretty average bunch? - Tbf its a little early in the season to be saying that.

2 of the RUK team said the winner lacked scope.

Another horse that lacked scope - the comments of most pundits on City Of Troy. A double whammy in progress/perhaps.

truehoncho, I agree that things can and do change but what I was really pointing out was that the ridiculous prices that many Ballydoyle horses start suggests that they are a class above the rest when the evidence so far suggests that they are just short of classic ability. They might be champion 2yos but what percentage of champion 2yos win much at 3yo? Notable Speech, Elmalka, Ezaliya and ??? are the Classic winners to date. City of Troy may well win tomorrow but he is not a stone ahead of the rest as the ante post markets suggested all winter. Perfectly possible that another of their horses is a superstar of course.

14/1 for Ezeliya for The Arc is reasonable despite she'll need to be supplemented; connections ran Harzand in the race too after winning the Epsom Derby thus a more than a distant possibility.

I hope she recovers from her exertion here and go on to win the Irish Oaks in July. Then a small prep race in Ireland before a tilt in The Arc. I think the October ground at Longchamp will suit her too.

I 100% agree with that Sage. Everything is hyped and Coolmore hype them more than most. I have to say that if you can see that and you like to gamble, there's an obvious strategy to follow. COT is an extreme example (and probably the easiest to see through if anybody ever bothered to look at him and measure that 'famed' stride length) but he's just one of many.

Well the following would suggest that a great deal of time the "hype" is justified;

9 Derby Wins
10 Oaks
7 1000 Guineas
10 2000 Guineas
7 St Leger
85 Royal Ascot Winners
50 Irish Classic Winners
18 Breeders Cup Winners