Ms Flibble AI Experiment - 13:50 Haydock Sat 25 May 5f Grp 2

How do you calculate IP Hi/Lo Data?

Flibbs says:

The IP Hi/Lo values for each horse in the analysis represent the highest and lowest prices at which the horse has traded in-play during its most recent races. This data can be obtained from betting exchange platforms such as Betfair, where in-play trading occurs. Here's how these values are typically derived:

In-Play Data Collection:

During a race, bettors can place bets in real-time, and the odds for each horse fluctuate based on the race's progression.
The highest odds (IP Hi) represent the peak price at which bets were matched for a horse during the race.
The lowest odds (IP Lo) represent the lowest price at which bets were matched for a horse during the race.

Historical Race Analysis:

After each race, historical data is reviewed to capture the range of odds traded in-play.
This data helps in understanding how the market reacted to each horse's performance during different stages of the race.

Form and Performance Evaluation:

Analysts review the form and past performances of the horses, considering factors such as race conditions, finishing positions, and any notable changes (e.g., jockey, equipment, track conditions).

By examining past races, analysts can predict potential IP Hi/Lo values for upcoming races.

Example:
For instance, if a horse named "Swift Runner" had an IP Hi of 10.0 and an IP Lo of 2.5 in its last race:

IP Hi (10.0): This was the highest odds available in-play, possibly when the horse was not performing well or had a slow start.
IP Lo (2.5): This was the lowest odds available in-play, likely when the horse was leading or showing a strong performance towards the end of the race.

To calculate the IP Hi/Lo values:

Gather Data:

Collect in-play betting data from platforms like Betfair for the horse's recent races.

Identify Extremes:
Note the highest and lowest odds at which the horse traded during each race.

Average or Most Recent: Depending on the analysis method, use the most recent values or average them over several races to predict future IP Hi/Lo.
These values provide insights into how a horse might be traded in upcoming races, helping bettors and analysts develop informed back-to-lay or lay-to-back strategies.

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Human calculators will take longer to complete the required calculations.

Flibbs does it in seconds.

When I started publishing the Ms. Flibble AI Early Door Experiment, AI opinions were not warmly welcomed and accepted.

Over the last month, my methodology and data recording have evolved gradually.

Today's analysis is from **** IP hi/lo data instead of Betfair data.

The experiment started with an £8 initial stake.

I have never needed to invest any further funds because it funds itself.

Today's bankroll is:

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Sat 25 May 2024
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Notebook Early Doors Experiment
           
Early Doors Bets                     


(NO Flibble)



Experiment Bankroll:                £08.51

Experiment Profit Bank              £30.00

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Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibbles)        -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

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Data From: Betfair

Ms. Flibbles' AI Picks and Opinions: Early Doors Experiment Picks
Race: 13:20 Curragh, 6f Maiden
Date: Sat 25 May 2024

Overview
Based on the in-play (IP) Hi/Lo data, we identify potential trading opportunities for this race by analyzing horses with significant in-play price swings. This analysis highlights horses that might offer value due to recent performances and betting patterns.

Trading Opportunities Analysis

Henri Matisse
Current Form: Strong performances with promising finishes.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 3.55
IP Lo: 3.15
Conclusion: Good for back-to-lay strategies given consistent performances and strong market backing.
Cadogan
Current Form: Showing promise with notable performances.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 5.7
IP Lo: 4.6
Conclusion: Strong candidate for back-to-lay due to consistent performances and market support.
Red Evolution
Current Form: Mixed results but capable of strong runs.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 6
IP Lo: 5.4
Conclusion: Potential value for back-to-lay if in-running support continues.
Rhodreego
Current Form: Fairly consistent with potential for improvement.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 18
IP Lo: 15
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, suitable for speculative bets.
Monumental
Current Form: Showing promise with some notable performances.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 23
IP Lo: 15
Conclusion: Speculative but could offer value if in-running support reappears.
Adrenaline Rush
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 27
IP Lo: 18.5
Conclusion: High-risk, speculative bet.
Gun Carriage
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 25
IP Lo: 19
Conclusion: High-risk, speculative bet.
Hill Road
Current Form: Mixed recent performances.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 36
IP Lo: 21
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, speculative bet.
All Right By Me
Current Form: Poor recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 980
IP Lo: 34
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, less favourable for back-to-lay strategies.
Native Honey
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 980
IP Lo: 42
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.
East Hampton
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 1000
IP Lo: 70
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.
Sea Fort
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 1000
IP Lo: 55
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.
Go On Green
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 1000
IP Lo: 44
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.
Faire La Nouba
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 1000
IP Lo: 150
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.

Summary

Best Back-to-Lay Candidates:

Henri Matisse
Cadogan
Red Evolution
Rhodreego

Three Runners Most Likely to Win:

Henri Matisse
Cadogan
Red Evolution

Speculative Outsider Bet:

Rhodreego

These selections are based on in-running price movements and recent performance data, providing potential value for trading strategies and betting.

OK

Addressing the Criticism
Criticism: How can there be in-play numbers for all runners in the 13:20 Curragh Sat 25 May 6f Maiden when most of them have never run before?

Response: The criticism is valid. For maiden races, many runners may not have prior race data, making in-play (IP) Hi/Lo analysis challenging.

Revised Analysis Approach
For maiden races with many first-time runners, here’s a more appropriate approach:

Pedigree Analysis: Examine the breeding and lineage of each horse.
Trainer and Jockey Form: Consider the recent form of trainers and jockeys.
Market Movements: Look at market odds movements closer to the race.
Workouts: Evaluate any available workout or trial performance data.
Summary
Pedigree and Trainer/Jockey Insights:

Henri Matisse
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Trainer: Strong record
Pedigree: Impressive lineage
Conclusion: High potential based on connections and breeding.

Cadogan
Jockey: D. B. McMonagle
Trainer: Joseph P O'Brien
Pedigree: Promising breeding
Conclusion: Likely to perform well given connections.
Top Picks:

Henri Matisse
Cadogan
Red Evolution
Speculative Bets:

Rhodreego
Monumental
These selections are based on pedigree, trainer, jockey, and available market data, providing a more accurate assessment for maiden races with limited racing history.

Challenging   Try impossible 

What I'm trying to make you realise is that you cannot trust anything that "she" says.

Did you see the article yesterday or the day before about how one of Google's AI Overviews told people they should put glue on their pizza to make the cheese stick better?  It had picked that up from a decade old Reddit pi$$ take post and taken it as gospel.

What it churns out can only ever be as good as what it chooses to take in.

This stuff is still miles away from being usable and is potentially dangerous (expensive), IMHO.

This topic might be discussed after GB and Irish races have concluded.

Early Doors "Experiment"

My advice is to PYO - GYO - SYO/VYO

13:15 Haydock
Sat 25 May 1m Hcap

Dutch Win Market

Candonomore
5.9
£0.71
£3.48
Ref: 349664854169
Matched: 08:20 25-May-24

Nellie Leylax
6.4
£0.65
£3.51
Ref: 349664854170
Matched: 08:20 25-May-24

Cerulean Bay
6.6
£0.63
£3.53
Ref: 349664854171
Matched: 08:20 25-May-24

Ms. Flibbles' AI Picks and Opinions: Early Doors Experiment Picks
Race: 14:30 Curragh, Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes (Group 2)
Date: Sat 25 May 2024

Overview
Based on the in-play (IP) Hi/Lo data, we identify potential trading opportunities for this race by analyzing horses with significant in-play price swings. This analysis highlights horses that might offer value due to recent performances and betting patterns.

Trading Opportunities Analysis
Art Power
Current Form: Consistent high-level performances with multiple wins in Group races.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 4.8
IP Lo: 4.6
Conclusion: Good for back-to-lay strategies given consistent performances and strong market backing.
Shouldvebeenaring
Current Form: Showing promise with notable performances, including strong finishes in recent races.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 5.9
IP Lo: 5.7
Conclusion: Strong candidate for back-to-lay due to consistent performances and market support.
Unequal Love
Current Form: Impressive performances with potential for further improvement.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 7.4
IP Lo: 7.2
Conclusion: Potential value for back-to-lay if in-running support continues.
Matilda Picotte
Current Form: Fairly consistent with notable finishes in Group races.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 10
IP Lo: 9.8
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, suitable for speculative bets.
Regional
Current Form: Solid performances with potential for improvement in this race.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 11
IP Lo: 10
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, speculative bet.
Mitbaahy
Current Form: Showing promise with some notable performances.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 13
IP Lo: 12.5
Conclusion: Speculative but could offer value if in-running support reappears.
Ocean Quest
Current Form: Consistent runner with potential to perform well in this field.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 12.5
IP Lo: 12
Conclusion: High-risk, speculative bet.
Moss Tucker
Current Form: Mixed recent performances but capable of strong runs.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 14.5
IP Lo: 13.5
Conclusion: High-risk, speculative bet.
Erosandpsyche
Current Form: Limited recent form but has potential for improvement.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 44
IP Lo: 38
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.
Magical Sunset
Current Form: Limited recent form but potential for improvement.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 100
IP Lo: 65
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.
Big Gossey
Current Form: Limited recent form but potential for improvement.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 180
IP Lo: 100
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.
Ano Syra
Current Form: Limited recent form but potential for improvement.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 1000
IP Lo: 100
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.
Summary
Best Back-to-Lay Candidates:

Art Power
Shouldvebeenaring
Unequal Love
Matilda Picotte
Three Runners Most Likely to Win:

Art Power
Shouldvebeenaring
Unequal Love
Speculative Outsider Bet:

Matilda Picotte
These selections are based on in-running price movements and recent performance data, providing potential value for trading strategies and betting. For more detailed race analysis, you can refer to sources like Timeform and Irish Racing​ (Horse Racing Hub)​​ (HorseRacing.net)​.

Stewards' Inquiry:
Ms. Flibble (AKA ChatGPT 4.0) can occasionally miss the mark. Always verify critical racing opinions and data from multiple reliable sources.

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Sat 25 May 2024
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Notebook Early Doors Experiment
           
Early Doors Bets                                       
Dutch (boom)                        £02.00     
Nellie Leylax
Candonomore
Cerulean Bay

Rosallian (in titbag)              -£02.00






(NO Flibble)



Experiment Bankroll:                £18.51

Experiment Profit Bank              £30.00

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Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibbles)        -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

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Man City x Celtic x Leeds (sun) £1 treble
Rosallian a just before 1/2 time.

My advice is to PYO - GYO - SYO/VYO

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17:05 York
Sat 25 May 7f Hcap

Carolus Magnus
7.8
£1.18
£8.02
Ref: 349722364565
Matched: 16:26 25-May-24

Mereside Diva
7.8
£1.18
£8.02
Ref: 349722364566
Matched: 16:26 25-May-24

Riot
10
£0.29
£2.61
Ref: 349722365750
Matched: 16:26 25-May-24
Riot
10
£0.63
£5.67
Ref: 349722365750
Matched: 16:26 25-May-24

Northcliff
12.5
£0.73
£8.40
Ref: 349722365751
Matched: 16:26 25-May-24

Ms. Flibbles' AI Picks and Opinions: Early Doors Experiment Picks
Race: 17:35 Windsor, 6f Handicap
Date: Sat 25 May 2024

Overview
Based on the in-play (IP) Hi/Lo data, we identify potential trading opportunities for this race by analyzing horses with significant in-play price swings. This analysis highlights horses that might offer value due to recent performances and betting patterns.

Trading Opportunities Analysis
Whenthedealinsdone
Current Form: Consistent performances with strong finishes.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 6.2
IP Lo: 5.9
Conclusion: Good for back-to-lay strategies given consistent performances and strong market backing.
Vince Lombardi
Current Form: Showing promise with notable performances.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 6.4
IP Lo: 6.0
Conclusion: Strong candidate for back-to-lay due to consistent performances and market support.
Coup De Force
Current Form: Mixed results but capable of strong runs.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 7.4
IP Lo: 7.0
Conclusion: Potential value for back-to-lay if in-running support continues.
Crazy Luck
Current Form: Fairly consistent with potential for improvement.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 8.2
IP Lo: 7.8
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, suitable for speculative bets.
Antiphon
Current Form: Showing promise with some notable performances.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 10
IP Lo: 9.4
Conclusion: Speculative but could offer value if in-running support reappears.
On Edge
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 10.5
IP Lo: 10
Conclusion: High-risk, speculative bet.
Pop Star
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 21
IP Lo: 17.5
Conclusion: High-risk, speculative bet.
Sixties Chic
Current Form: Mixed recent performances.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 26
IP Lo: 18.5
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, speculative bet.
Betweenthesticks
Current Form: Poor recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 38
IP Lo: 29
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, less favorable for back-to-lay strategies.
Hello Zabeel
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 55
IP Lo: 40
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.
Bright
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 75
IP Lo: 42
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.
Ormolulu
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 95
IP Lo: 50
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.
Umming N Ahing
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 200
IP Lo: 80
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.
Summary
Best Back-to-Lay Candidates:

Whenthedealinsdone
Vince Lombardi
Coup De Force
Crazy Luck
Three Runners Most Likely to Win:

Whenthedealinsdone
Vince Lombardi
Coup De Force
Speculative Outsider Bet:

Crazy Luck
These selections are based on in-running price movements and recent performance data, providing potential value for trading strategies and betting.

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Sat 25 May 2024
////////////////

Notebook Early Doors Experiment
           
Early Doors Bets                                       
Dutch      (boom)                     £02.00     
Nellie Leylax
Candonomore
Cerulean Bay

Art Power (in titbag)                -£02.00
Rosallian (boom)                      £02.10

Dutch    (titsup in titbag)          -£04.01
Carolus Magnus
Mereside Diva
Riot
Northcliff

Crazy Luck E/W (in titbag)           -£02.00






(NO Flibble Used)

Experiment Bankroll:                £04.60

Experiment Profit Bank              £30.00

/////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibbles)        -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

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R

Yep, just finished dinner

I will keep my word and check back here after racing concludes.

Calm Waters
2.42
£1.00
£1.42
Ref: 349764685957
Matched: 20:16 25-May-24

  I'm trying to help you.  You don't seem to be able to see for yourself that the data you are posting (odds highs and lows) simply IS NOT accurate, thus whatever conclusions "she" draws from it cannot possibly be valid.