Ms Flibble AI Experiment - 13:50 Goodwood Fri 24 May 6f Nov Stks

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Off Topic Research
Skip if No Interest
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Man City v Man Utd Sat 25 May, 15:00 FA Cup

While going through the OVER/UNDERS Goals market looking for value and finding none. I thought about Arbing could  this be the system that lays the golden egg?

So, I asked Flibbs:

With an Arbitrage, you would back all 3 outcomes with a bookmaker at higher odds and lay-all with Betfair at lower odds. There has to be 1 winner and  2 losers.  All you need is three bookmaker accounts offering bigger odds than Betfair you can lay-all knowing you'll win 2 bets and 1 bet at the bookmakers. Is this correct give pros and cons.

Flibbs/ChatGPT 4.o
Yes, your understanding of using arbitrage by backing all three outcomes with bookmakers at higher odds and laying all three outcomes on Betfair at lower odds is correct. This approach takes advantage of discrepancies between the odds offered by different bookmakers and the exchange. Here's a breakdown of how it works, along with the pros and cons:

How it Works
Identify the Odds:

Find three bookmakers offering odds for a football match where each has one of the three outcomes (Home Win, Draw, Away Win) at higher odds than those available for laying on Betfair.

Place Back Bets:

Place back bets with the bookmakers on all three outcomes (Home Win, Draw, Away Win).

Place Lay Bets:

Place lay bets on Betfair against all three outcomes.
Example:
Let's say a football match has the following odds:

Bookmaker 1: Home Win at 3.2
Bookmaker 2: Draw at 3.5
Bookmaker 3: Away Win at 4.0
On Betfair, the lay odds are:

Home Win: 3.1
Draw: 3.4
Away Win: 3.9

By backing at higher odds and laying at lower odds, you set up an arbitrage situation where you guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome.

Calculation:
Back Bet Stakes: Let's assume you place £100 on each outcome.

Lay Bet Stakes: You need to calculate the appropriate lay stakes to cover each back bet.

For simplicity, let's consider the potential outcomes and the profit calculation:

If the Home Team wins:

Back Bet: £100 * (3.2 - 1) = £220 profit
Lay Bet Liability: Assume the lay stake was calculated to match the back stake's potential loss, resulting in an overall balanced net.

Similar calculations apply for Draw and Away Win, ensuring a balanced net regardless of the outcome.

Pros:
Guaranteed Profit: Properly executed, arbitrage guarantees a profit by exploiting the differences in odds.

Risk-Free: Once the bets are placed, the outcome doesn't matter as the profit is locked in.
Opportunities: With multiple bookmakers and markets, there are frequent opportunities for arbitrage.

Cons:
Account Restrictions: Bookmakers often restrict or close accounts of bettors who frequently engage in arbitrage betting.

Market Fluctuations: Odds can change quickly, making it challenging to place all bets at the required odds.

Complexity: Calculating the correct stakes for each bet to ensure a balanced arbitrage can be complex and requires careful attention.

Capital Requirement: Significant capital is often needed to place multiple bets across different outcomes and platforms.

Commission on Betfair: Betfair charges a commission on winnings, which can reduce overall profitability.

Conclusion
Arbitrage betting by backing all outcomes with bookmakers and laying on Betfair can be profitable, but it requires careful management, swift execution, and a keen eye for odds discrepancies. Always be mindful of the risks and the potential for account limitations.

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That's me bollixed.

I don't have a single bookmaker account and even if I did, I'm way too old and slow to learn new tricks.

Dammed goose and it's egg.

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Ms. Flibbles' AI Picks and Opinions: Early Doors Experiment Picks
Race: 15:00 Goodwood, 1m 4f Handicap
Date: Fri 24 May

Overview
Based on the in-play (IP) Hi/Lo data, we identify potential trading opportunities for this race by analyzing horses with significant in-play price swings. This analysis highlights horses that might offer value due to recent performances and betting patterns.

Trading Opportunities Analysis
Ya Hafhd
Current Form: Consistent performances with strong finishes.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 8
IP Lo: 7
Conclusion: Good for back-to-lay strategies given consistent performances and strong market backing.
Strutting
Current Form: Showing promise with notable performances.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 7.2
IP Lo: 6.2
Conclusion: Strong candidate for back-to-lay due to consistent performances and market support.
Juana Ines
Current Form: Mixed results but capable of strong runs.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 8.8
IP Lo: 7.2
Conclusion: Potential value for back-to-lay if in-running support continues.
True Wisdom
Current Form: Fairly consistent with potential for improvement.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 8.4
IP Lo: 8
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, suitable for speculative bets.
Mallavelly
Current Form: Showing promise with some notable performances.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 11
IP Lo: 9.4
Conclusion: Speculative but could offer value if in-running support reappears.
Entrancement
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 12.5
IP Lo: 10.5
Conclusion: High-risk, speculative bet.
Sweet Fantasy
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 15.5
IP Lo: 14
Conclusion: High-risk, speculative bet.
Ayyab
Current Form: Mixed recent performances.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 14.5
IP Lo: 13.5
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, speculative bet.
Divina Grace
Current Form: Poor recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 19
IP Lo: 15
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, less favorable for back-to-lay strategies.
Avon Light
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 26
IP Lo: 21
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.
No Niki No
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 30
IP Lo: 27
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.
Summary
Best Back-to-Lay Candidates:

Ya Hafhd
Strutting
Juana Ines
True Wisdom
Three Runners Most Likely to Win:

Ya Hafhd
Strutting
Juana Ines
Speculative Outsider Bet:

True Wisdom
These selections are based on in-running price movements and recent performance data, providing potential value for trading strategies and betting. For more detailed race analysis, you can refer to sources like At The Races and Racing Post​ (At The Races)​​ (Racing Post)​.

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Had ti move Red Sand to 2tbp because low odds meant the Dutch failed to work.

Ye, Red Sand Wins and the whole set of bets goes in the titbag!

Lost £1.11

5:00 Goodwood
Fri 24 May 1m4f Hcap

2tbp
True Wisdom
3.3
£1.50
£3.45
Ref: 349579445944
Matched: 14:27 24-May-24

Dutch
Ya Hafhd
6.2
£1.29
£6.71
Ref: 349579398165
Matched: 14:26 24-May-24

Juana Ines
8.8
£0.01
£0.08
Ref: 349579398663
Matched: 14:26 24-May-24
Juana Ines
8.8
£0.07
£0.55
Ref: 349579398663
Matched: 14:26 24-May-24
Juana Ines
8.8
£0.83
£6.47
Ref: 349579398663
Matched: 14:26 24-May-24

Strutting
10
£0.80
£7.20
Ref: 349579398664
Matched: 14:26 24-May-24

The BBC should be banned from advertising "live" events and be forced to say, "Live events are broadcast with a 5-minute delay to enable editing of bloopers" IMHO ffs

Searched 3 sites

Ms. Flibbles' AI Picks and Opinions: Early Doors Experiment Picks
Race: 15:25 Bath, 6f Handicap
Date: Fri 24 May

Overview
Based on the in-play (IP) Hi/Lo data, we identify potential trading opportunities for this race by analyzing horses with significant in-play price swings. This analysis highlights horses that might offer value due to recent performances and betting patterns.

Trading Opportunities Analysis
Midnight Flame
Current Form: Consistent performances with strong finishes.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 4
IP Lo: 3.95
Conclusion: Good for back-to-lay strategies given consistent performances and strong market backing.
Symbol Of Hope
Current Form: Showing promise with notable performances.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 4.8
IP Lo: 4.7
Conclusion: Strong candidate for back-to-lay due to consistent performances and market support.
Media Guest
Current Form: Mixed results but capable of strong runs.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 6.6
IP Lo: 6.2
Conclusion: Potential value for back-to-lay if in-running support continues.
More Than Likely
Current Form: Fairly consistent with potential for improvement.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 14.5
IP Lo: 13.5
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, suitable for speculative bets.
Savannah Smiles
Current Form: Showing promise with some notable performances.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 15
IP Lo: 14
Conclusion: Speculative but could offer value if in-running support reappears.
Were Reunited
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 18
IP Lo: 17
Conclusion: High-risk, speculative bet.
Kangaroo
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 24
IP Lo: 21
Conclusion: High-risk, speculative bet.
Cloudy Breeze
Current Form: Mixed recent performances.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 20
IP Lo: 19.5
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, speculative bet.
Essme
Current Form: Poor recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 28
IP Lo: 27
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, less favorable for back-to-lay strategies.
Attys Edge
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 26
IP Lo: 25
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.
Independent Beauty
Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 110
IP Lo: 95
Conclusion: Very high-risk, speculative bet.
Summary
Best Back-to-Lay Candidates:

Midnight Flame
Symbol Of Hope
Media Guest
More Than Likely
Three Runners Most Likely to Win:

Midnight Flame
Symbol Of Hope
Media Guest
Speculative Outsider Bet:

More Than Likely
These selections are based on in-running price movements and recent performance data, providing potential value for trading strategies and betting. For more detailed race analysis, you can refer to sources like Sky Sports and At The Races​ (Sky Sports)​​ (At The Races)​.

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Friday 24:05:2024
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Notebook Early Doors Experiment
           
Early Doors Bets                     
Red Sand 2tbp                         £01.42
Dutch                                -£01.97
Berkshire Kam                     
Original Outlaw

Sportbook Double                     -£01.00
The Flying Tit

True Wisdom 2tbp                     -£01.50
True Wisdom E/W CORRECTION           -£01.50
Dutch                                -£03.00
Ya Hafhd
Strutting
Juana Ines

CORRECTION                          CORRECTED

(NO Flibble)



Experiment Bankroll:                £00.49

Experiment Profit Bank              £38.00

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Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibbles)        -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

well that was a tough read

Ms. Flibbles' AI Picks and Opinions: Summary Report for 24 May 2024
20:00 Limerick, 2m7f Handicap Chase
Kilmurry Jj

Odds: 3.95
Analysis: Strong favorite, ideal for backing.
Chainofconsequence

Odds: 9.8
Analysis: Good value for money.
Stormy Master

Odds: 10.5
Analysis: Potential value if fit after a long break.
Cosmic Blizzard

Odds: 12
Analysis: Mid-range odds, potential but needs improvement.
Summary:

Top Pick: Kilmurry Jj
Value Bets: Chainofconsequence, Stormy Master
Outsider: Cosmic Blizzard
13:50 Goodwood, 6f Novice Stakes
Original Outlaw

Odds: 4.5
Analysis: Consistent performer, good for back-to-lay.
The Flying Seagull

Odds: 4.3
Analysis: Strong contender for back-to-lay.
Berkshire Kameo

Odds: 6.6
Analysis: Mixed results, potential value if supported.
Summary:

Top Pick: Original Outlaw
Value Bets: The Flying Seagull, Berkshire Kameo
Outsider: Red Sand
14:05 Haydock, 1m Handicap
Hello Cotai

Odds: 4.6
Analysis: Consistent, good for back-to-lay.
Lady Ava

Odds: 5.5
Analysis: Promising, strong market support.
Mysteryofthesands

Odds: 7
Analysis: Mixed results, potential value.
Summary:

Top Pick: Hello Cotai
Value Bets: Lady Ava, Mysteryofthesands
Outsider: Miners Gamble
15:00 Goodwood, 1m4f Handicap
Ya Hafhd

Odds: 7
Analysis: Consistent performer, strong market backing.
Strutting

Odds: 6.2
Analysis: Promising performances.
Juana Ines

Odds: 7.2
Analysis: Capable of strong runs.
Summary:

Top Pick: Ya Hafhd
Value Bets: Strutting, Juana Ines
Outsider: True Wisdom
15:25 Bath, 6f Handicap
Midnight Flame

Odds: 3.95
Analysis: Consistent performances, good market backing.
Symbol Of Hope

Odds: 4.7
Analysis: Promising, strong market support.
Media Guest

Odds: 6.2
Analysis: Mixed results, potential value.
Summary:

Top Pick: Midnight Flame
Value Bets: Symbol Of Hope, Media Guest
Outsider: More Than Likely
General Summary:
Consistent Performers: Kilmurry Jj, Original Outlaw, Hello Cotai, Ya Hafhd, Midnight Flame
Potential Value Bets: Chainofconsequence, The Flying Seagull, Lady Ava, Strutting, Symbol Of Hope
Speculative Outsiders: Cosmic Blizzard, Red Sand, Miners Gamble, True Wisdom, More Than Likely
These picks are based on analyzing in-running price movements and recent performance data, aimed at providing value for trading strategies and betting. For more detailed race analysis, refer to sources like Sky Sports and At The Races​ (Sky Sports)​​ (At The Races)​.

Also, my bet selection wasn't the best today.

Looking forward to tomorrow!