Ms Flibble AI Experiment - 14:30 Yarmouth Wed 22 May 1m6f Hcap

Notebook

Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors                     




My Bets (NO Flibble)



Monday Experiment Bankroll:       £8.28

Experiment Profit Bank            £ 15.00

///////////////////////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibbles)        -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

Experiment Update Notice

Key Updates:

First Race of the Day:

The first race with significant IPLO data is scheduled at 2:30 PM on Wednesday, May 22nd at Yarmouth - 1m 6f Handicap.
Flibbs' Selections:

Please note that Ms. Flibble (AKA ChatGPT 4.0) provides opinions by Flibbs, NOT tips.
Further race analyses may be published today, accompanied by corresponding bet slips to prove the bets are real and not run in Fairbot simulation mode.
New Rule Implementation:

Following yesterday's improved picks, we are now selecting only races with IP low/high data. This has been adopted as a rule in the Early Doors Experiment.
Improvements and Feedback:

We recognize the need for improvements in the "human" selection of stakes and bet types.
The basic accounting system of the Notebook currently shows only win profits and does not include the return of stakes used in bets.
Ongoing Enhancements:

We will continue to work with Flibbs to enhance the quality and accuracy of her selections.
Thank you for your attention and continued support.

///
If the Early Doors Experiment is still in profit, I plan to go "full bollixs" + £2 in a combination bet to cover all of the Flibble opinions.

Win, Dutch 2 runners in 3tbp and 1 runner in the 4tbp markets.

///

Ms. Flibbles' AI Picks and Opinions: Early Doors Experiment Picks
18:30 Kempton Wed 22 May - 6f Novice Stakes
Overview
Based on the in-play (IP) Hi/Lo data, we identify potential trading opportunities for this race by analyzing horses with significant in-play price swings. This analysis highlights horses that might offer value due to recent performances and betting patterns.

Trading Opportunities Analysis
YALA

Current Form: Promising performances with significant market support.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 4.4
IP Lo: 4.2
Conclusion: Good for back-to-lay strategies given strong in-running support and market backing.
AVIATION TIME

Current Form: Consistent finishes with potential for improvement.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 7.6
IP Lo: 6.8
Conclusion: Strong candidate for back-to-lay due to consistent performances and significant in-running price drops.
SPIRITUALISM

Current Form: Mixed results but capable of strong runs.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 7.8
IP Lo: 7.0
Conclusion: Potential value for back-to-lay if in-running support continues.
PAINT THE TOWN RED

Current Form: Showing promise with some notable performances.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 10
IP Lo: 7.6
Conclusion: Speculative but could offer value if in-running support reappears.
DOLLYS DELIGHT

Current Form: Fairly consistent with potential for improvement.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 9.2
IP Lo: 7.8
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, suitable for speculative bets.
DEAL MAKER

Current Form: Mixed recent performances.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 10
IP Lo: 8.8
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, speculative bet.
LIGHTNING FORCE

Current Form: Poor recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 19.5
IP Lo: 18
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, less favorable for back-to-lay strategies.
HAVANA GILA

Current Form: Limited recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 34
IP Lo: 18.5
Conclusion: High-risk, speculative bet.
WHISKEY GLASSES

Current Form: Inconsistent recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 32
IP Lo: 28
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, speculative bet.
MARRAKESH DAWN

Current Form: Mixed performances.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 930
IP Lo: 75
Conclusion: High-risk, speculative bet.
LEADING STAR GIRL

Current Form: Poor recent form.
Key Data:
IP Hi: 1000
IP Lo: 90
Conclusion: High-risk candidate, speculative bet.
Summary
Best Back-to-Lay Candidates:

YALA
AVIATION TIME
SPIRITUALISM
PAINT THE TOWN RED
Three Runners Most Likely to Win:

YALA
AVIATION TIME
SPIRITUALISM
Speculative Outsider Bet:

PAINT THE TOWN RED
These selections are based on in-running price movements and recent performance data, providing potential value for trading strategies and betting. For more detailed race analysis, you can refer to sources like Sky Sports and At The Races​ (Sky Sports)​​ (At The Races)​.

Early Doors Experiment - First Bet of the Day

14:30 Yarmouth Wed 22 May 1m6f Hcap

Back (Bet For)

Smart Charger
2.74
£2.00
£3.48

The price is taken early to make a profit if it shortens then I beat the SP, if it drifts, then SP wins.

26% of full bollixs.

OK, I'm going to ask:  How can these in-play high/low numbers you're using be accurate?  Unless you're winning, your in-play high is going to be substantially higher than the 1-tick difference between high and low depicted in several of the horses in the 1550.  Conversely, if you are winning the race, the IP low is going to be significantly lower....  all the way down to 1.01, in fact...?

Somehow, Timeform runners are cross-matched by their algorithm, or reporting threshold. I should know for sure but I don't. I'll ask Ms Flibble and post her reply in tomorrow's Early Doors.

Notebook

Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors                     
Smart Charger ((BOOM))             £3.20
Nikovo {{BOOM}}                    £5.59
Maysong titbag                    -£1.00


My Bets (NO Flibble)



Monday Experiment Bankroll:       £16.18

Experiment Profit Bank            £ 15.00

///////////////////////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibbles)        -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

Liability £8

Profit
Win  £8.00
E/W  £7.29
3tbp £4.05 = 2 chances

If they all lose, I'm scratched for the day.

I need at least 2 to pay.

This is why I love racing.

Ms Fibble says:

Your observation about the in-play (IP) high and low numbers for horse racing is accurate and highlights the dynamic nature of betting markets. Let's break down the factors contributing to these in-play high and low figures:

Market Dynamics: During a race, the odds on each horse fluctuate rapidly based on the horse's performance, the positions of other horses, and the betting activity. A horse that seems to be performing well may have its odds drop significantly (low IP), while one that appears to be underperforming will have its odds rise (high IP).

Betting Activity: High-frequency traders and algorithms place bets in real-time, which can lead to sharp movements in odds. These traders might back a horse at low odds and lay it at higher odds multiple times during the race, creating a narrow range of high and low IP values.

Odds Reporting: Betting exchanges often report the highest and lowest odds matched during the race, but this doesn't necessarily capture all the nuances of the market. The reported high and low IP odds are typically the extremes that were matched, not the average or median odds during the race.

Winning and Losing Horses:

Winning Horses: A winning horse will have its odds drop significantly as it approaches the finish line and is more likely to win. These odds can go as low as 1.01 if the win seems certain.

Losing Horses: Conversely, for horses that fall behind, their odds will increase as their chances of winning decrease. These odds can be much higher than their starting odds.

Tick Sizes: In betting exchanges, odds move in "ticks," which are the smallest possible changes in odds. The 1-tick difference you mentioned might reflect minimal fluctuations within a very active market, especially for a horse that is a strong favorite or a long shot where the odds don’t move much.

Matched Bets: The reported high and low IP odds are based on the bets that were actually matched. Sometimes, the market might see high or low prices offered but not matched, so they wouldn't be reported as the in-play high or low.

Example Scenario
Consider a race with a horse that is a favorite:

Pre-race Odds: 3.0
During the race:
The horse takes an early lead, and its odds drop to 2.5 (low IP).
As the race progresses, the horse is challenged and falls to second place, pushing its odds up to 5.0 (high IP).
Near the finish line, the horse regains the lead, and its odds drop to 1.5.
Just before the finish line, the horse is almost certain to win, and the odds drop to 1.01.
In this example, the low IP might be reported as 1.01 and the high IP as 5.0, capturing the significant movements during the race. However, if only minimal changes occur (e.g., from 3.0 to 2.9 and back), the high and low IP might only reflect a small range.

Conclusion
The accuracy and significance of in-play high and low odds depend on the fluid nature of the betting market, the performance of the horses, and the volume of bets placed. The reported figures give a snapshot of the betting dynamics during the race, reflecting the highest and lowest odds at which bets were matched. Understanding these factors can help bettors make more informed decisions during in-play betting.

There we have it.

Notebook

Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors                     
Smart Charger ((BOOM))             £ 3.20
Nikovo {{BOOM}}                    £ 5.59
Maysong titbag                    -£ 1.00
Yala titbag                       -£ 3.00                     -
Paint the Town titbuggered        -£ 2.oo

Dutch                              £ 4.05
Spiritualism  {boom>Boom}                   
Aviation Time {{BOOM titty BOOM}!}                     



My Bets (NO Flibble)



Monday Experiment Bankroll:       £15.43

Experiment Profit Bank            £ 15.00

///////////////////////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibbles)        -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98

Thursday 22:05:2024

Notebook

Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors                     
Smart Charger ((BOOM))             £ 3.20
Nikovo {{BOOM}}                    £ 5.59
Maysong titbag                    -£ 1.00
Yala titbag                       -£ 3.00                     -
Paint the Town titbuggered        -£ 2.oo

Dutch                              £ 4.05
Spiritualism  {boom>Boom}                   
Aviation Time {{BOOM titty BOOM}!}                     



My Bets (NO Flibble)



Monday Experiment Bankroll:       £08.43

Experiment Profit Bank            £22.00

///////////////////////////////////////////

Monthly Software Liabilities
ChatGPT 4.o (Ms Flibbles)        -£18.98
Fairbot                          -£10.00

Total                            -£28.98