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marve
19 May 24 14:10
Joined:
Date Joined: 30 Oct 07
| Topic/replies: 233 | Blogger: marve's blog
I wonder I wonder

Could O'Brien be changing plan at the last minute...

No way he can run in the Irish 2000 guineas and the Epsom Derby (although his dam Minding did the Irish 1000 and Epsom Oaks in 2016) - yet there was basically 2 weeks between races that year instead of only a week this year

Sending him to France was just plain odd for me

Interesting pedigree...and would Coolmore really want to risk give Dubawi his first Derby triumph...what a commercial decision they have got on their hands lol

Ideally they need fillies out of Dubawi to help with future breading blood lines
Pause Switch to Standard View Henry Longfellow Epsom Derby odds...
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Report themightymac May 19, 2024 3:29 PM BST
I wish I had their problem.
Report impossible123 May 19, 2024 3:55 PM BST
Very unlikely to me. The horse has too much pace, and stamina is suspect; French Derby is the correct race in my opinion. There are several more suitable notably Diego Velazquez.
Report mrcombustible May 19, 2024 4:44 PM BST
Dubawi is now 22, his covering days will soon be over and his stock will be deteriorating if not already
Report marve May 19, 2024 8:16 PM BST
I thought Henry was very strong through the line in the National stakes last year over 7 furlongs

Out of an oaks winner in Minding...he's as beautifully bred as they come

But commercially they've got to push the Justify bloodline because they paid tens of millions to buy him

I always believe (and the great Aussie Jim McGrath does too)...if you're guaranteed to the stay the Derby trip then you're probably too slow

In my opinion French racing is far less consistent and Henry stayed on from never really being put into the race

In the Derby for me...City of Troy is the biggest place lay ever

Likewise
Report impossible123 May 20, 2024 4:23 PM BST
I'd agree with City Of Troy. Either he wins with supremacy or he bombs again spectacularly. Take your pick. I'm in the latter clan.
Report Hayden May 20, 2024 4:33 PM BST
Think if forced to get financially involved with City of Troy for Epsom , although absolutely no intention , i'd play it safer , back it for the win & lay it for a place as the profile suggests finishing 2nd or 3rd is the unlikeliest outcome.
Report truehoncho May 20, 2024 6:52 PM BST
I struggle to see a Dubawi winning the Derby but most of the top of the betting have stamina doubts.
Report themightymac May 20, 2024 9:12 PM BST
Personally I would City Of Troy rather than lay it.

In Aidan I trust.

Either it`s going to prove the greatest or Aidan is going to look a right mug.

Good to see a trainer giving their honest opinion instead of bluffing.
Report themightymac May 20, 2024 9:13 PM BST
*bet
Report elisjohn May 21, 2024 1:41 PM BST
henry taken out
Report impossible123 May 21, 2024 2:01 PM BST
Henry's taken out, Diego's still holding fort. Maybe as a precaution in case something goes amiss with the greatest horse AOB has ever trained. That beast is into as short as 7/4; a reduced £300 return antepost bet for me after laying off £600 prior to his spectacular flop.
Report truehoncho May 21, 2024 2:08 PM BST
I think if COT runs he wins. I just can't see them letting him run unless they are 100% certain he's the winner.
Report elisjohn May 21, 2024 2:16 PM BST
11/10 fav if economics doesnt run, 5/2 jf if he does imo
Report truehoncho May 21, 2024 2:22 PM BST
I don't think they will run the bleeder.
Report truehoncho May 21, 2024 2:22 PM BST
I don't think they will run the bleeder.
Report second again May 21, 2024 2:50 PM BST
I don't fancy COT for the Derby, I doubt he is even a certain runner though I have been wrong before.Laugh
Report impossible123 May 21, 2024 4:46 PM BST
I think COT will run if he's sound. And, Diego is 1st reserve for him; Diego was fav for this race prior to his defeat on bad ground at Doncaster.

Who is the bleeder? Economics?
Report truehoncho May 21, 2024 5:00 PM BST
Yes
Report impossible123 May 21, 2024 6:03 PM BST
Thanks 'truehoncho'. That could tip the balance whether he runs or not. I think a few trainers are awaiting confirmation of COT; Economics will probably run if COT does not, I believe.
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