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EARLY DOORS EXPERIMENT 13:30 Newmarket Sat 18 May 6f Nov Stks
Mrs Flibble/ChatGPT 4.0 (free edition) Opinions NOT Tips
Dutch Bet Picks
Mountain Breeze (IRE) (Pat Dobbs)
Recent win and solid pedigree suggest strong form and potential for improvement.
Likely to be among the favourites given recent performance.
Patsy Snugfit (Charles Bishop)
Decent debut with a third-place finish and room for improvement.
Well-bred and expected to perform better in the next race.
Flaming Stone (Kevin Stott)
High purchase price and strong pedigree indicate potential.
First-time starter but comes from a successful bloodline.
Straight Win Bet
Mountain Breeze (IRE)
Given the form and impressive debut win, Mountain Breeze is the strongest candidate for a straight win bet. The horse's recent performance and solid breeding suggest it can secure another victory.
To Be Placed Bet
Patsy Snugfit
This horse has already shown potential with a respectable debut performance. Betting on Patsy Snugfit to place is a safer option as it has a good chance of finishing in the top three.
Outsider Longshot
Flaming Stone
As a first-time starter with no form to assess but a strong pedigree and significant purchase price, Flaming Stone is a risky but potentially rewarding longshot. If the horse lives up to its breeding, it could surprise the field.
Summary of Bets
Dutch Bet:
Mountain Breeze
Patsy Snugfit
Flaming Stone
Straight Win Bet:
Mountain Breeze
To Be Placed Bet:
Patsy Snugfit
Outsider Longshot:
Flaming Stone
These selections provide a mix of safer bets and high-risk, high-reward options. Adjust your stakes accordingly to balance the overall risk of your betting strategy. These are opinions NOT tips.
Mrs Flibble/ChatGPT 4.0 (free edition) Opinions NOT Tips
Dutch Bet Picks
Mountain Breeze (IRE) (Pat Dobbs)
Recent win and solid pedigree suggest strong form and potential for improvement.
Likely to be among the favourites given recent performance.
Patsy Snugfit (Charles Bishop)
Decent debut with a third-place finish and room for improvement.
Well-bred and expected to perform better in the next race.
Flaming Stone (Kevin Stott)
High purchase price and strong pedigree indicate potential.
First-time starter but comes from a successful bloodline.
Straight Win Bet
Mountain Breeze (IRE)
Given the form and impressive debut win, Mountain Breeze is the strongest candidate for a straight win bet. The horse's recent performance and solid breeding suggest it can secure another victory.
To Be Placed Bet
Patsy Snugfit
This horse has already shown potential with a respectable debut performance. Betting on Patsy Snugfit to place is a safer option as it has a good chance of finishing in the top three.
Outsider Longshot
Flaming Stone
As a first-time starter with no form to assess but a strong pedigree and significant purchase price, Flaming Stone is a risky but potentially rewarding longshot. If the horse lives up to its breeding, it could surprise the field.
Summary of Bets
Dutch Bet:
Mountain Breeze
Patsy Snugfit
Flaming Stone
Straight Win Bet:
Mountain Breeze
To Be Placed Bet:
Patsy Snugfit
Outsider Longshot:
Flaming Stone
These selections provide a mix of safer bets and high-risk, high-reward options. Adjust your stakes accordingly to balance the overall risk of your betting strategy. These are opinions NOT tips.
Show More
Notebook
Sleep Trade
Ms Flibble Experiment
Early Doors -Darvel -£.00
My Bets (NO Flibble)
Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £8.59
Experiment Profit Bank £4
Onward and upward!
Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is a recent memory.
Sleep Trade
Ms Flibble Experiment
Early Doors -Darvel -£.00
My Bets (NO Flibble)
Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £8.59
Experiment Profit Bank £4
Onward and upward!
Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is a recent memory.
Notebook
Sleep Trade
Ms Flibble Experiment
Early Doors - -£.00
My Bets (NO Flibble)
Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £8.59
Experiment Profit Bank £4
Onward and upward!
Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is a recent memory.
Sleep Trade
Ms Flibble Experiment
Early Doors - -£.00
My Bets (NO Flibble)
Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £8.59
Experiment Profit Bank £4
Onward and upward!
Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is a recent memory.
Earlier Doors - 13:20 Navan Sat 18 May 6f Mdn
Based on the information provided, here are the best picks for different betting strategies, including a Dutch bet, straight win bet, place bet, and an outsider longshot.
Dutch Bet Picks
Dr Ali (IRE) (C. T. Keane)
Showed promise on debut with a third-place finish at this course and distance. Expected to improve and sets a good standard.
Tunbridge Wells (IRE) (W. M. Lordan)
High appeal based on pedigree and connections. Though unraced, Aidan O'Brien's horses often perform well first time out.
King Thistle (Ben Martin Coen)
Comes from an in-form yard with a decent purchase price, indicating potential. Half-brother to several winners and could surprise.
Straight Win Bet
Dr Ali (IRE)
Given his promising debut and potential for improvement, Dr Ali seems the strongest candidate for a straight win bet. The colt's first race showed enough to suggest he can win.
To Be Placed Bet
Gangsta Man (IRE)
While not as strong a contender for a win, Gangsta Man has shown potential to improve. A place bet on him could offer a safer return given his previous performance and likelihood of better showing.
Outsider Longshot
Bamako (IRE) (C. D. Hayes)
Bamako has not performed well in his first two races, but his odds and the potential for significant improvement make him an intriguing outsider longshot. If he finds form, the returns could be substantial.
Summary of Bets
Dutch Bet:
Dr Ali (IRE)
Tunbridge Wells (IRE)
King Thistle
Straight Win Bet:
Dr Ali (IRE)
To Be Placed Bet:
Gangsta Man (IRE)
Outsider Longshot:
Bamako (IRE)
These selections provide a balanced mix of safer bets and higher-risk options, suitable for a range of betting strategies. Adjust your stakes accordingly to manage overall risk effectively.
Based on the information provided, here are the best picks for different betting strategies, including a Dutch bet, straight win bet, place bet, and an outsider longshot.
Dutch Bet Picks
Dr Ali (IRE) (C. T. Keane)
Showed promise on debut with a third-place finish at this course and distance. Expected to improve and sets a good standard.
Tunbridge Wells (IRE) (W. M. Lordan)
High appeal based on pedigree and connections. Though unraced, Aidan O'Brien's horses often perform well first time out.
King Thistle (Ben Martin Coen)
Comes from an in-form yard with a decent purchase price, indicating potential. Half-brother to several winners and could surprise.
Straight Win Bet
Dr Ali (IRE)
Given his promising debut and potential for improvement, Dr Ali seems the strongest candidate for a straight win bet. The colt's first race showed enough to suggest he can win.
To Be Placed Bet
Gangsta Man (IRE)
While not as strong a contender for a win, Gangsta Man has shown potential to improve. A place bet on him could offer a safer return given his previous performance and likelihood of better showing.
Outsider Longshot
Bamako (IRE) (C. D. Hayes)
Bamako has not performed well in his first two races, but his odds and the potential for significant improvement make him an intriguing outsider longshot. If he finds form, the returns could be substantial.
Summary of Bets
Dutch Bet:
Dr Ali (IRE)
Tunbridge Wells (IRE)
King Thistle
Straight Win Bet:
Dr Ali (IRE)
To Be Placed Bet:
Gangsta Man (IRE)
Outsider Longshot:
Bamako (IRE)
These selections provide a balanced mix of safer bets and higher-risk options, suitable for a range of betting strategies. Adjust your stakes accordingly to manage overall risk effectively.
Tunbridge Wells and Dr Ali will likely fight out first and 2nd places. However, there's always a chance any one of the lower order might come late with a full sail and steal the race on the line.
I've decided to take a punt and do a six-horse Dutch against the 1st + 2nd favourites and hope the gamble pays off.
The bet was made through Fairbot which enabled me to back the Dutch with pennies per runner rather than the £1 minimum bet.
My liability is £1.99 with a maximum profit of £4.06.
By entering the market early there might be a chance to trade out before the off for a small pennies profit.
It's a reckless bet all six could end up in the titbag but one could catch the wind and sail to victory.
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
Sounds Like A Plan
11
£0.56
£5.60
Ref: 348899640183
Matched: 07:04 18-May-24
King Thistle
14
£0.44
£5.72
Ref: 348899640184
Matched: 07:04 18-May-24
Weegeebear
14.5
£0.43
£5.81
Ref: 348899640185
Matched: 07:04 18-May-24
Bamako
21
£0.30
£6.00
Ref: 348899640186
Matched: 07:04 18-May-24
Gangsta Man
40
£0.16
£6.24
Ref: 348899640187
Matched: 07:04 18-May-24
Katie Ross
60
£0.10
£5.90
Ref: 348899640188
Matched: 07:04 18-May-24
////////////////////////////////////
Notebook
Sleep Trade
Ms Flibble Experiment
Early Doors - Dutch -£1.99
Sounds Like A Plan
King Thistle
Bamako
Weegeebear
Gangsta Man
Katie Ross
My Bets (NO Flibble)
Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £6.40
Experiment Profit Bank £4
Onward and upward!
Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is a recent memory.
I've decided to take a punt and do a six-horse Dutch against the 1st + 2nd favourites and hope the gamble pays off.
The bet was made through Fairbot which enabled me to back the Dutch with pennies per runner rather than the £1 minimum bet.
My liability is £1.99 with a maximum profit of £4.06.
By entering the market early there might be a chance to trade out before the off for a small pennies profit.
It's a reckless bet all six could end up in the titbag but one could catch the wind and sail to victory.
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
Sounds Like A Plan
11
£0.56
£5.60
Ref: 348899640183
Matched: 07:04 18-May-24
King Thistle
14
£0.44
£5.72
Ref: 348899640184
Matched: 07:04 18-May-24
Weegeebear
14.5
£0.43
£5.81
Ref: 348899640185
Matched: 07:04 18-May-24
Bamako
21
£0.30
£6.00
Ref: 348899640186
Matched: 07:04 18-May-24
Gangsta Man
40
£0.16
£6.24
Ref: 348899640187
Matched: 07:04 18-May-24
Katie Ross
60
£0.10
£5.90
Ref: 348899640188
Matched: 07:04 18-May-24
////////////////////////////////////
Notebook
Sleep Trade
Ms Flibble Experiment
Early Doors - Dutch -£1.99
Sounds Like A Plan
King Thistle
Bamako
Weegeebear
Gangsta Man
Katie Ross
My Bets (NO Flibble)
Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £6.40
Experiment Profit Bank £4
Onward and upward!
Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is a recent memory.
13:50 Newbury Sat 18 May 1m4f Grp 3
Analysis and Betting Strategies
1. Dutch Bet for Win
Dutch betting involves placing multiple bets on different outcomes to secure a win regardless of the result. Based on the performance and form, the following three picks are recommended for a Dutch bet:
• Desert Hero
• Middle Earth
• King of Conquest
These horses have shown consistency in their performances and have good form, making them strong contenders for winning.
2. Straight Win Bet
For a straight win bet, where you pick one horse to win outright, Desert Hero is a solid choice. This horse has been consistently placing well in high-class races and has shown excellent form.
3. To Be Placed
For a bet on a horse to finish in the top positions (e.g., top 3), consider:
• Middle Earth
• King of Conquest
Both horses have shown strong performances and resilience, making them likely to finish in the top positions.
4. Outsider Longshot
For a longshot bet (high odds), So Moonstruck is worth considering. Although there's limited recent data, the horse has shown potential in the past and could perform well if it retains its previous form.
Summary
• Dutch Bet for Win: Desert Hero, Middle Earth, King of Conquest
• Straight Win Bet: Desert Hero
• To Be Placed: Middle Earth, King of Conquest
• Outsider Longshot: So Moonstruck
These recommendations are based on recent performance data, form, and historical success rates. Always consider recent track conditions and other situational factors before placing bets.
Analysis and Betting Strategies
1. Dutch Bet for Win
Dutch betting involves placing multiple bets on different outcomes to secure a win regardless of the result. Based on the performance and form, the following three picks are recommended for a Dutch bet:
• Desert Hero
• Middle Earth
• King of Conquest
These horses have shown consistency in their performances and have good form, making them strong contenders for winning.
2. Straight Win Bet
For a straight win bet, where you pick one horse to win outright, Desert Hero is a solid choice. This horse has been consistently placing well in high-class races and has shown excellent form.
3. To Be Placed
For a bet on a horse to finish in the top positions (e.g., top 3), consider:
• Middle Earth
• King of Conquest
Both horses have shown strong performances and resilience, making them likely to finish in the top positions.
4. Outsider Longshot
For a longshot bet (high odds), So Moonstruck is worth considering. Although there's limited recent data, the horse has shown potential in the past and could perform well if it retains its previous form.
Summary
• Dutch Bet for Win: Desert Hero, Middle Earth, King of Conquest
• Straight Win Bet: Desert Hero
• To Be Placed: Middle Earth, King of Conquest
• Outsider Longshot: So Moonstruck
These recommendations are based on recent performance data, form, and historical success rates. Always consider recent track conditions and other situational factors before placing bets.
15:35 Newbury Sat 18 May 1m Grp 1
IP Hi/Lo Data for Each Horse
Horse Name
IP Hi/Lo
Audience
3.85 / 3.2
Big Rock
8.8 / -
Charyn
3.35 / 27
Dear My Friend
4.19 / 3
Flight Plan
9.8 / -
Hi Royal
16.36 / 4
Poker Face
6.6 / 1.25
Real World
45.91 / 21
Royal Scotsman
13.36 / 9.2
Witch Hunter
7.2 / 6
Inspiral
- / -
Betting Strategies
Win Dutch Bet
For a win Dutch bet, we aim to maximize the potential return by betting on multiple horses with the best chances of winning. Based on the data and analysis:
1. Big Rock - Strong performances, often travels strongly, and a consistent front-runner.
2. Inspiral - High-class performer with a good turn of foot, capable of winning after trading much higher.
3. Charyn - Recent form shows strong performances, overcoming pace biases.
Straight Win Bet
A straight win bet is ideal for a horse with the highest likelihood of winning:
• Big Rock - Consistent high-class performer, has won multiple Group 1 races, and usually leads from the front.
To Be Placed
For a place bet, we look for consistency in finishing in the top positions:
• Poker Face - Consistent performances with a good track record in Group races.
Outsider Longshot
An outsider longshot is chosen for its potential to surprise at higher odds:
• Hi Royal - Showed strong performance after a layoff, and has the ability to run well against top competition.
Summary
• Win Dutch Bet: Big Rock, Inspiral, Charyn
• Straight Win Bet: Big Rock
• To Be Placed: Poker Face
• Outsider Longshot: Hi Royal
This strategy aims to balance high-probability bets with potential high returns from an outsider.
IP Hi/Lo Data for Each Horse
Horse Name
IP Hi/Lo
Audience
3.85 / 3.2
Big Rock
8.8 / -
Charyn
3.35 / 27
Dear My Friend
4.19 / 3
Flight Plan
9.8 / -
Hi Royal
16.36 / 4
Poker Face
6.6 / 1.25
Real World
45.91 / 21
Royal Scotsman
13.36 / 9.2
Witch Hunter
7.2 / 6
Inspiral
- / -
Betting Strategies
Win Dutch Bet
For a win Dutch bet, we aim to maximize the potential return by betting on multiple horses with the best chances of winning. Based on the data and analysis:
1. Big Rock - Strong performances, often travels strongly, and a consistent front-runner.
2. Inspiral - High-class performer with a good turn of foot, capable of winning after trading much higher.
3. Charyn - Recent form shows strong performances, overcoming pace biases.
Straight Win Bet
A straight win bet is ideal for a horse with the highest likelihood of winning:
• Big Rock - Consistent high-class performer, has won multiple Group 1 races, and usually leads from the front.
To Be Placed
For a place bet, we look for consistency in finishing in the top positions:
• Poker Face - Consistent performances with a good track record in Group races.
Outsider Longshot
An outsider longshot is chosen for its potential to surprise at higher odds:
• Hi Royal - Showed strong performance after a layoff, and has the ability to run well against top competition.
Summary
• Win Dutch Bet: Big Rock, Inspiral, Charyn
• Straight Win Bet: Big Rock
• To Be Placed: Poker Face
• Outsider Longshot: Hi Royal
This strategy aims to balance high-probability bets with potential high returns from an outsider.
13:50 Newbury Sat 18 May 1m4f Grp 3
I'm following Ms. Flibble's picks backing a 2-horse Dutch with a 6-click offset in the 2TBP market.
The liability will be £2 and profitable outcomes if 1 selection is placed the profit is £1,51 if 2 are placed the profit is $5.05
Ya, the bet is matched.
If the Dutch show a profit of 25% (75p) pre-off, I'll trade out.
Risk versus rewards are not great. But there is a slight edge in the bet.
Back (Bet For)
Middle Earth
2.62
£1.29
£2.09
Ref: 348930994693
Matched: 13:03 18-May-24
King Of Conquest
4.8
£0.71
£2.70
Ref: 348930996397
Matched: 13:18 18-May-24
I'm following Ms. Flibble's picks backing a 2-horse Dutch with a 6-click offset in the 2TBP market.
The liability will be £2 and profitable outcomes if 1 selection is placed the profit is £1,51 if 2 are placed the profit is $5.05
Ya, the bet is matched.
If the Dutch show a profit of 25% (75p) pre-off, I'll trade out.
Risk versus rewards are not great. But there is a slight edge in the bet.
Back (Bet For)
Middle Earth
2.62
£1.29
£2.09
Ref: 348930994693
Matched: 13:03 18-May-24
King Of Conquest
4.8
£0.71
£2.70
Ref: 348930996397
Matched: 13:18 18-May-24
15:35 Newbury Sat 18 May 1m Grp 1
Auto tick trading Big rock starting at, back £2 at 3.55 and lay at £1.18 at 3.45
Auto tick trading Big rock starting at, back £2 at 3.55 and lay at £1.18 at 3.45
Big Rock
3.45
1.18
£2.89
Ref: 348937132845
Submitted: 13:37 18-May-24
Matched bets
Order by matched date
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
Big Rock
3.55
£2.00
£5.10
Ref: 348937132117
Matched: 13:37 18-May-24
3.45
1.18
£2.89
Ref: 348937132845
Submitted: 13:37 18-May-24
Matched bets
Order by matched date
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
Big Rock
3.55
£2.00
£5.10
Ref: 348937132117
Matched: 13:37 18-May-24
Pop goes the titbag! Earlier Doors bet paid out £3.84
Navan (IRE) 13:20 IRISH STALLION FARMS EBF MAIDEN
1st William James Leesilk 5. SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN 5/1
2nd W. M. Lordansilk 6. TUNBRIDGE WELLS (IRE) 7/4
3rd Shane Foleysilk 3. GANGSTA MAN (IRE) 33/1
Notebook
Sleep Trade
Ms Flibble Experiment
Early Doors - Dutch £3.84
Sounds Like A Plan
King Thistle
Bamako
Weegeebear
Gangsta Man
Katie Ross
My Bets (NO Flibble)
Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £12.20
Experiment Profit Bank £4
Onward and upward!
Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is a fading* memory.
Navan (IRE) 13:20 IRISH STALLION FARMS EBF MAIDEN
1st William James Leesilk 5. SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN 5/1
2nd W. M. Lordansilk 6. TUNBRIDGE WELLS (IRE) 7/4
3rd Shane Foleysilk 3. GANGSTA MAN (IRE) 33/1
Notebook
Sleep Trade
Ms Flibble Experiment
Early Doors - Dutch £3.84
Sounds Like A Plan
King Thistle
Bamako
Weegeebear
Gangsta Man
Katie Ross
My Bets (NO Flibble)
Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £12.20
Experiment Profit Bank £4
Onward and upward!
Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is a fading* memory.
Yes, "explosive" start to the day! Nice one and two Ms. Flibble.
13:50 SKY SPORTS RACING STAKES (Aston Park) (Group 3) (1)
1st Oisin Murphysilk 7. MIDDLE EARTH 10/3
2nd William Buicksilk 5. KING OF CONQUEST 10/1
3rd Pat Cosgravesilk 2. CEMHAAN 28/1
Notebook
Sleep Trade
Ms Flibble Experiment
Early Doors - Dutch £3.84
Sounds Like A Plan
King Thistle
Bamako
Weegeebear
Gangsta Man
Katie Ross
Dutch 2TBP £4.41
Middle Earth
King of Conquest
My Bets (NO Flibble)
Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £16.62
Experiment Profit Bank £4
Onward and upward!
Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is a distant* memory.
13:50 SKY SPORTS RACING STAKES (Aston Park) (Group 3) (1)
1st Oisin Murphysilk 7. MIDDLE EARTH 10/3
2nd William Buicksilk 5. KING OF CONQUEST 10/1
3rd Pat Cosgravesilk 2. CEMHAAN 28/1
Notebook
Sleep Trade
Ms Flibble Experiment
Early Doors - Dutch £3.84
Sounds Like A Plan
King Thistle
Bamako
Weegeebear
Gangsta Man
Katie Ross
Dutch 2TBP £4.41
Middle Earth
King of Conquest
My Bets (NO Flibble)
Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £16.62
Experiment Profit Bank £4
Onward and upward!
Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is a distant* memory.
Comparison Payout
Navan (IRE) 13:20
Tote Win: €2.75Tote Place: €1.10 (10), €1.70 (5), €5.40 (11)
Straight Forecast: €10.53Exacta: €8.80Trifecta: €93.00
Newbury 13:50
Tote Win: £4.34 Pl: £1.25, £2.40, £7.25 EX: £38.40
Trifecta: £478.60 Tricast: £787.17
SF: £34.40 Swingers: £5.30, £14.55, £23.45
I have no regrets about betting on the Exchange!
Navan (IRE) 13:20
Tote Win: €2.75Tote Place: €1.10 (10), €1.70 (5), €5.40 (11)
Straight Forecast: €10.53Exacta: €8.80Trifecta: €93.00
Newbury 13:50
Tote Win: £4.34 Pl: £1.25, £2.40, £7.25 EX: £38.40
Trifecta: £478.60 Tricast: £787.17
SF: £34.40 Swingers: £5.30, £14.55, £23.45
I have no regrets about betting on the Exchange!
The Newbury 15.35 trade triggered the Stop Loss for a -£0.30 to carry forward.
I'm hitting it again!
and lost another 30p
Took Big Rock 4.8 £2.00
I'm hitting it again!
and lost another 30p
Took Big Rock 4.8 £2.00
Notebook
Sleep Trade
Ms Flibble Experiment
Early Doors - Dutch £3.84
Sounds Like A Plan
King Thistle
Bamako
Weegeebear
Gangsta Man
Katie Ross
Dutch 2TBP £4.41
Middle Earth
King of Conquest
Win and Trade
Big Rock -£2.00
My Bets (NO Flibble)
Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £14.62
Experiment Profit Bank £4
Onward and upward!
Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is a distant* memory.
////////////////////////////////
*Cash Out Experiment*
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
Notebook
Sleep Trade
Ms Flibble Experiment
Early Doors - Dutch £3.84
Sounds Like A Plan
King Thistle
Bamako
Weegeebear
Gangsta Man
Katie Ross
Dutch 2TBP £4.41
Middle Earth
King of Conquest
Win and Trade
Big Rock -£2.00
My Bets (NO Flibble)
Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £7.62
Experiment Profit Bank £12
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
After approximately TWO weeks of the online provable by betting slips Ms Flibble Experiment.
The results are rated as good so far IMO.
From £8 liability to £7.62 is going forward to tomorrow and 12 quid in the bank.
The standout data is that despite going close several times, the bank never went bust.
Two or more weeks will be needed to prove this strategy "idea" into a hypothesis (an idea that might be good).
Fortune follows the cautious brave!
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
Onward and upward!
Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is a *distant* memory.
Sleep Trade
Ms Flibble Experiment
Early Doors - Dutch £3.84
Sounds Like A Plan
King Thistle
Bamako
Weegeebear
Gangsta Man
Katie Ross
Dutch 2TBP £4.41
Middle Earth
King of Conquest
Win and Trade
Big Rock -£2.00
My Bets (NO Flibble)
Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £14.62
Experiment Profit Bank £4
Onward and upward!
Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is a distant* memory.
////////////////////////////////
*Cash Out Experiment*
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
Notebook
Sleep Trade
Ms Flibble Experiment
Early Doors - Dutch £3.84
Sounds Like A Plan
King Thistle
Bamako
Weegeebear
Gangsta Man
Katie Ross
Dutch 2TBP £4.41
Middle Earth
King of Conquest
Win and Trade
Big Rock -£2.00
My Bets (NO Flibble)
Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £7.62
Experiment Profit Bank £12
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
After approximately TWO weeks of the online provable by betting slips Ms Flibble Experiment.
The results are rated as good so far IMO.
From £8 liability to £7.62 is going forward to tomorrow and 12 quid in the bank.
The standout data is that despite going close several times, the bank never went bust.
Two or more weeks will be needed to prove this strategy "idea" into a hypothesis (an idea that might be good).
Fortune follows the cautious brave!
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
Onward and upward!
Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is a *distant* memory.
Newbury 15:35 Further research into pre-race titbag trading.
Got it! Let's analyze the new layout and data set for good trading opportunities.
IP Hi/Lo Data (New Layout):
AUDIENCE
13 Oct 23: ISP 9/4, IP Hi/Lo -/3.2
16 Sep 23: ISP 10/3, IP Hi/Lo -/2.44
26 Aug 23: ISP 20/1, IP Hi/Lo -/10.5
1 Aug 23: ISP 15/2, IP Hi/Lo -/4.2
1 Jul 23: ISP 14/1, IP Hi/Lo 17.5/-
BIG ROCK (FR)
21 Oct 23: ISP 5/1, IP Hi/Lo 7.4/-
3 Sep 23: ISP 6/10f, IP Hi/Lo -/1.51
13 Aug 23: ISP 21/10, IP Hi/Lo -/2.78
4 Jun 23: ISP 17/10f, IP Hi/Lo -/1.9
9 May 23: ISP 12/10f, IP Hi/Lo 1/-
CHARYN (IRE)
26 Apr 24: ISP 9/4f, IP Hi/Lo 27/-
23 Mar 24: ISP 2/1f, IP Hi/Lo 3.75/-
26 Aug 23: ISP 4/1, IP Hi/Lo -/2
2 Aug 23: ISP 40/1, IP Hi/Lo -/46
9 Jul 23: ISP 14/1, IP Hi/Lo -/14
DEAR MY FRIEND
29 Mar 24: ISP 3/1f, IP Hi/Lo -/3
1 Mar 24: ISP 2/1f, IP Hi/Lo 2.98/-
4 Feb 24: ISP 11/8, IP Hi/Lo 2.24/-
1 Jan 24: ISP 7/2jf, IP Hi/Lo 7/-
HI ROYAL (IRE)
17 Apr 24: ISP 14/1, IP Hi/Lo -/4
21 Oct 23: ISP 100/1, IP Hi/Lo -/75
13 Aug 23: ISP 33/1, IP Hi/Lo -/25
9 Jul 23: ISP 83/10, IP Hi/Lo -/1001
27 May 23: ISP 11/2, IP Hi/Lo -/1.5
POKER FACE (IRE)
26 Apr 24: ISP 9/2, IP Hi/Lo -/1.25
12 Nov 23: ISP 71/100f, IP Hi/Lo -/-
30 Sep 23: ISP 43/10, IP Hi/Lo 5.3/-
27 Aug 23: ISP 16/10f, IP Hi/Lo 3/-
30 Jul 23: ISP 5/4f, IP Hi/Lo 2.32/-
Analysis for Good Trading Opportunities:
AUDIENCE:
13 Oct 23: Traded down to 3.2 from ISP 9/4.
16 Sep 23: Traded down to 2.44 from ISP 10/3.
26 Aug 23: Significant drop to 10.5 from ISP 20/1.
1 Aug 23: Traded down to 4.2 from ISP 15/2.
1 Jul 23: Spiked to 17.5 from ISP 14/1.
Trading Strategy: Reliable for back-to-lay, often shortens in-play.
BIG ROCK (FR):
21 Oct 23: Peaked at 7.4 from ISP 5/1.
3 Sep 23: Traded down to 1.51 from ISP 6/10f.
13 Aug 23: Traded down to 2.78 from ISP 21/10.
4 Jun 23: Traded down to 1.9 from ISP 17/10f.
9 May 23: Traded down to 1 from ISP 12/10f.
Trading Strategy: Strong front-runner, ideal for back-to-lay strategies.
CHARYN (IRE):
26 Apr 24: Peaked at 27 from ISP 9/4f.
23 Mar 24: Peaked at 3.75 from ISP 2/1f.
26 Aug 23: Traded down to 2 from ISP 4/1.
2 Aug 23: Peaked at 46 from ISP 40/1.
9 Jul 23: Traded down to 14 from ISP 14/1.
Trading Strategy: Volatile, potential for both back-to-lay and lay-to-back strategies.
DEAR MY FRIEND:
29 Mar 24: Traded down to 3 from ISP 3/1f.
1 Mar 24: Peaked at 2.98 from ISP 2/1f.
4 Feb 24: Peaked at 2.24 from ISP 11/8.
1 Jan 24: Peaked at 7 from ISP 7/2jf.
Trading Strategy: Less volatile, suitable for steady back-to-lay trades.
HI ROYAL (IRE):
17 Apr 24: Traded down to 4 from ISP 14/1.
21 Oct 23: Peaked at 75 from ISP 100/1.
13 Aug 23: Peaked at 25 from ISP 33/1.
9 Jul 23: Peaked at 1001 from ISP 83/10.
27 May 23: Traded down to 1.5 from ISP 11/2.
Trading Strategy: Extremely volatile, excellent for speculative lay-to-back.
POKER FACE (IRE):
26 Apr 24: Traded down to 1.25 from ISP 9/2.
12 Nov 23: Stayed consistent with no significant IP movement from ISP 71/100f.
30 Sep 23: Peaked at 5.3 from ISP 43/10.
27 Aug 23: Peaked at 3 from ISP 16/10f.
30 Jul 23: Peaked at 2.32 from ISP 5/4f.
Trading Strategy: Consistent performer, reliable for back-to-lay.
Summary of Good Trading Opportunities:
Back-to-Lay Picks:
AUDIENCE: Often shortens significantly in-play.
BIG ROCK (FR): Strong, reliable front-runner.
POKER FACE (IRE): Consistent price drops in-play.
Lay-to-Back Speculative Picks:
HI ROYAL (IRE): Extreme in-play volatility provides potential for significant returns.
Steady Back-to-Lay:
DEAR MY FRIEND: Less volatile but offers steady trading opportunities.
Volatile Trading Opportunities:
CHARYN (IRE): Potential for both back-to-lay and lay-to-back trades due to significant price swings.
These trading strategies aim to capitalize on horses with consistent or significant in-play price movements, maximizing the chances of profitable trades.
Got it! Let's analyze the new layout and data set for good trading opportunities.
IP Hi/Lo Data (New Layout):
AUDIENCE
13 Oct 23: ISP 9/4, IP Hi/Lo -/3.2
16 Sep 23: ISP 10/3, IP Hi/Lo -/2.44
26 Aug 23: ISP 20/1, IP Hi/Lo -/10.5
1 Aug 23: ISP 15/2, IP Hi/Lo -/4.2
1 Jul 23: ISP 14/1, IP Hi/Lo 17.5/-
BIG ROCK (FR)
21 Oct 23: ISP 5/1, IP Hi/Lo 7.4/-
3 Sep 23: ISP 6/10f, IP Hi/Lo -/1.51
13 Aug 23: ISP 21/10, IP Hi/Lo -/2.78
4 Jun 23: ISP 17/10f, IP Hi/Lo -/1.9
9 May 23: ISP 12/10f, IP Hi/Lo 1/-
CHARYN (IRE)
26 Apr 24: ISP 9/4f, IP Hi/Lo 27/-
23 Mar 24: ISP 2/1f, IP Hi/Lo 3.75/-
26 Aug 23: ISP 4/1, IP Hi/Lo -/2
2 Aug 23: ISP 40/1, IP Hi/Lo -/46
9 Jul 23: ISP 14/1, IP Hi/Lo -/14
DEAR MY FRIEND
29 Mar 24: ISP 3/1f, IP Hi/Lo -/3
1 Mar 24: ISP 2/1f, IP Hi/Lo 2.98/-
4 Feb 24: ISP 11/8, IP Hi/Lo 2.24/-
1 Jan 24: ISP 7/2jf, IP Hi/Lo 7/-
HI ROYAL (IRE)
17 Apr 24: ISP 14/1, IP Hi/Lo -/4
21 Oct 23: ISP 100/1, IP Hi/Lo -/75
13 Aug 23: ISP 33/1, IP Hi/Lo -/25
9 Jul 23: ISP 83/10, IP Hi/Lo -/1001
27 May 23: ISP 11/2, IP Hi/Lo -/1.5
POKER FACE (IRE)
26 Apr 24: ISP 9/2, IP Hi/Lo -/1.25
12 Nov 23: ISP 71/100f, IP Hi/Lo -/-
30 Sep 23: ISP 43/10, IP Hi/Lo 5.3/-
27 Aug 23: ISP 16/10f, IP Hi/Lo 3/-
30 Jul 23: ISP 5/4f, IP Hi/Lo 2.32/-
Analysis for Good Trading Opportunities:
AUDIENCE:
13 Oct 23: Traded down to 3.2 from ISP 9/4.
16 Sep 23: Traded down to 2.44 from ISP 10/3.
26 Aug 23: Significant drop to 10.5 from ISP 20/1.
1 Aug 23: Traded down to 4.2 from ISP 15/2.
1 Jul 23: Spiked to 17.5 from ISP 14/1.
Trading Strategy: Reliable for back-to-lay, often shortens in-play.
BIG ROCK (FR):
21 Oct 23: Peaked at 7.4 from ISP 5/1.
3 Sep 23: Traded down to 1.51 from ISP 6/10f.
13 Aug 23: Traded down to 2.78 from ISP 21/10.
4 Jun 23: Traded down to 1.9 from ISP 17/10f.
9 May 23: Traded down to 1 from ISP 12/10f.
Trading Strategy: Strong front-runner, ideal for back-to-lay strategies.
CHARYN (IRE):
26 Apr 24: Peaked at 27 from ISP 9/4f.
23 Mar 24: Peaked at 3.75 from ISP 2/1f.
26 Aug 23: Traded down to 2 from ISP 4/1.
2 Aug 23: Peaked at 46 from ISP 40/1.
9 Jul 23: Traded down to 14 from ISP 14/1.
Trading Strategy: Volatile, potential for both back-to-lay and lay-to-back strategies.
DEAR MY FRIEND:
29 Mar 24: Traded down to 3 from ISP 3/1f.
1 Mar 24: Peaked at 2.98 from ISP 2/1f.
4 Feb 24: Peaked at 2.24 from ISP 11/8.
1 Jan 24: Peaked at 7 from ISP 7/2jf.
Trading Strategy: Less volatile, suitable for steady back-to-lay trades.
HI ROYAL (IRE):
17 Apr 24: Traded down to 4 from ISP 14/1.
21 Oct 23: Peaked at 75 from ISP 100/1.
13 Aug 23: Peaked at 25 from ISP 33/1.
9 Jul 23: Peaked at 1001 from ISP 83/10.
27 May 23: Traded down to 1.5 from ISP 11/2.
Trading Strategy: Extremely volatile, excellent for speculative lay-to-back.
POKER FACE (IRE):
26 Apr 24: Traded down to 1.25 from ISP 9/2.
12 Nov 23: Stayed consistent with no significant IP movement from ISP 71/100f.
30 Sep 23: Peaked at 5.3 from ISP 43/10.
27 Aug 23: Peaked at 3 from ISP 16/10f.
30 Jul 23: Peaked at 2.32 from ISP 5/4f.
Trading Strategy: Consistent performer, reliable for back-to-lay.
Summary of Good Trading Opportunities:
Back-to-Lay Picks:
AUDIENCE: Often shortens significantly in-play.
BIG ROCK (FR): Strong, reliable front-runner.
POKER FACE (IRE): Consistent price drops in-play.
Lay-to-Back Speculative Picks:
HI ROYAL (IRE): Extreme in-play volatility provides potential for significant returns.
Steady Back-to-Lay:
DEAR MY FRIEND: Less volatile but offers steady trading opportunities.
Volatile Trading Opportunities:
CHARYN (IRE): Potential for both back-to-lay and lay-to-back trades due to significant price swings.
These trading strategies aim to capitalize on horses with consistent or significant in-play price movements, maximizing the chances of profitable trades.
Actual results:
1 (5) Robert Havlin silk 1. AUDIENCE -34 < 134 Robert Havlin 5 9-2 22/1 23.77 /-
John & Thady Gosden (h)
2 (6) Silvestre De Sousa silk 1¾ 3. CHARYN (IRE) -10 < 129 Silvestre De Sousa 4 9-2 4/1 5.2 -/
Roger Varian
3 (7) Sean Levey silk 6½ 10. WITCH HUNTER (FR) -5 < 111 Sean Levey 5 9-2 22/1 25.45 -/
Richard Hannon
4 (1) Kieran Shoemark silk 4½ 11. INSPIRAL +24 < 96 Kieran Shoema
1 (5) Robert Havlin silk 1. AUDIENCE -34 < 134 Robert Havlin 5 9-2 22/1 23.77 /-
John & Thady Gosden (h)
2 (6) Silvestre De Sousa silk 1¾ 3. CHARYN (IRE) -10 < 129 Silvestre De Sousa 4 9-2 4/1 5.2 -/
Roger Varian
3 (7) Sean Levey silk 6½ 10. WITCH HUNTER (FR) -5 < 111 Sean Levey 5 9-2 22/1 25.45 -/
Richard Hannon
4 (1) Kieran Shoemark silk 4½ 11. INSPIRAL +24 < 96 Kieran Shoema
Potential Idea
Ms Flibble Tick Hunters Race of the Day.
It takes a while to rustle up the data and format the results which can be a pain in the ballbag.
I might run a trial tomorrow if I can find a suitable race.
Ms Flibble Tick Hunters Race of the Day.
It takes a while to rustle up the data and format the results which can be a pain in the ballbag.
I might run a trial tomorrow if I can find a suitable race.
De-briefing Flibbs:
Let's debrief the race results and see how they align with our expectations based on the IP Hi/Lo data.
Actual Race Results:
AUDIENCE (Robert Havlin) - 1st Place
ISP: 22/1
IP Hi/Lo: 23.77/-
CHARYN (IRE) (Silvestre De Sousa) - 2nd Place
ISP: 4/1
IP Hi/Lo: 5.2/-
WITCH HUNTER (FR) (Sean Levey) - 3rd Place
ISP: 22/1
IP Hi/Lo: 25.45/-
INSPIRAL (Kieran Shoemark) - 4th Place
ISP: 96/-
IP Hi/Lo: +24
Analysis and Comparison:
AUDIENCE:
Pre-Race Analysis: Identified as a reliable back-to-lay candidate due to consistent in-play price drops.
Race Outcome: Won the race, proving to be a strong performer at an ISP of 22/1, with an IP high of 23.77 indicating a steady race without much fluctuation in price once it started performing well.
Trading Opportunity: Excellent opportunity for those who backed early and laid off in-play. Significant profit potential from a high ISP.
CHARYN (IRE):
Pre-Race Analysis: Identified as volatile, with potential for both back-to-lay and lay-to-back strategies.
Race Outcome: Finished 2nd with an ISP of 4/1, and an IP high of 5.2. This aligns with the expectation of price stabilization once the race progressed.
Trading Opportunity: Good for back-to-lay traders who could have taken advantage of the slight in-play price increase before it settled lower again.
WITCH HUNTER (FR):
Pre-Race Analysis: Not specifically highlighted in pre-race picks.
Race Outcome: Finished 3rd with an ISP of 22/1, peaking at 25.45 in-play. The high ISP and IP indicate it was not seen as a front-runner initially.
Trading Opportunity: There might have been a speculative lay-to-back opportunity due to the high initial price, though it wasn't a primary pick based on prior data.
INSPIRAL:
Pre-Race Analysis: Not highlighted in the pre-race picks.
Race Outcome: Finished 4th with a +24 movement, suggesting some initial backing.
Trading Opportunity: Potentially volatile, might have seen some movement that could have been capitalized on with quick in-play trading.
Summary:
AUDIENCE was a standout success, aligning perfectly with the back-to-lay strategy we suggested.
CHARYN (IRE) performed as expected, providing a solid back-to-lay opportunity.
WITCH HUNTER (FR) and INSPIRAL offered some speculative trading opportunities that weren't the main focus but could still be profitable with appropriate strategies.
Overall, the analysis of the IP Hi/Lo data provided useful insights, particularly for AUDIENCE and CHARYN (IRE), supporting profitable trading strategies.
Let's debrief the race results and see how they align with our expectations based on the IP Hi/Lo data.
Actual Race Results:
AUDIENCE (Robert Havlin) - 1st Place
ISP: 22/1
IP Hi/Lo: 23.77/-
CHARYN (IRE) (Silvestre De Sousa) - 2nd Place
ISP: 4/1
IP Hi/Lo: 5.2/-
WITCH HUNTER (FR) (Sean Levey) - 3rd Place
ISP: 22/1
IP Hi/Lo: 25.45/-
INSPIRAL (Kieran Shoemark) - 4th Place
ISP: 96/-
IP Hi/Lo: +24
Analysis and Comparison:
AUDIENCE:
Pre-Race Analysis: Identified as a reliable back-to-lay candidate due to consistent in-play price drops.
Race Outcome: Won the race, proving to be a strong performer at an ISP of 22/1, with an IP high of 23.77 indicating a steady race without much fluctuation in price once it started performing well.
Trading Opportunity: Excellent opportunity for those who backed early and laid off in-play. Significant profit potential from a high ISP.
CHARYN (IRE):
Pre-Race Analysis: Identified as volatile, with potential for both back-to-lay and lay-to-back strategies.
Race Outcome: Finished 2nd with an ISP of 4/1, and an IP high of 5.2. This aligns with the expectation of price stabilization once the race progressed.
Trading Opportunity: Good for back-to-lay traders who could have taken advantage of the slight in-play price increase before it settled lower again.
WITCH HUNTER (FR):
Pre-Race Analysis: Not specifically highlighted in pre-race picks.
Race Outcome: Finished 3rd with an ISP of 22/1, peaking at 25.45 in-play. The high ISP and IP indicate it was not seen as a front-runner initially.
Trading Opportunity: There might have been a speculative lay-to-back opportunity due to the high initial price, though it wasn't a primary pick based on prior data.
INSPIRAL:
Pre-Race Analysis: Not highlighted in the pre-race picks.
Race Outcome: Finished 4th with a +24 movement, suggesting some initial backing.
Trading Opportunity: Potentially volatile, might have seen some movement that could have been capitalized on with quick in-play trading.
Summary:
AUDIENCE was a standout success, aligning perfectly with the back-to-lay strategy we suggested.
CHARYN (IRE) performed as expected, providing a solid back-to-lay opportunity.
WITCH HUNTER (FR) and INSPIRAL offered some speculative trading opportunities that weren't the main focus but could still be profitable with appropriate strategies.
Overall, the analysis of the IP Hi/Lo data provided useful insights, particularly for AUDIENCE and CHARYN (IRE), supporting profitable trading strategies.
Here's the detailed analysis of the IP Hi/Lo data for the runners in the "GET RACEDAY READY RESTRICTED MAIDEN STAKES" (4) (Division II), identifying good trading opportunities:
Race Details:
Date: 18:07, Sat 18 May 2024
Distance: 5f 3y
Surface: Turf
Going: Good to Firm
Runners: 9
Pace Forecast: Even
Draw Bias: N/A
Specific Pace Hint: THE DRAGON KING (IRE) has a significant chance regardless of pace.
Runners Analysis:
CRIMSON LAD (IRE)
Jockey: Ryan Sexton
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
ISP: N/A
IP Hi/Lo: N/A
Trading Opportunity: No form data available, speculative trading opportunity based on pedigree.
CYCLONITE (USA)
Jockey: Daniel Muscutt
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
ISP: 13/2
IP Hi/Lo: -/26
Trading Opportunity: Showed potential with a significant in-play high on debut; a possible back-to-lay candidate if he shows early promise.
INERTIA (IRE)
Jockey: Phil Dennis
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
ISP: N/A
IP Hi/Lo: N/A
Trading Opportunity: No form data available, debut run. Speculative trading opportunity based on market movements.
INSHAD (IRE)
Jockey: Grace McEntee
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
ISP: 6/1
IP Hi/Lo: -/280
Trading Opportunity: High IP in the previous race suggests laying off early if price drops significantly in-play.
THE DRAGON KING (IRE)
Jockey: Jim Crowley
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
ISP: 8/13f
IP Hi/Lo: -/1.75
Trading Opportunity: Strong favorite, very low in-play high in previous races. Ideal for back-to-lay strategy if the initial price is high enough to allow laying off at lower odds.
FAR ABOVE THE LAW (IRE)
Jockey: Kieran O'Neill
Age: 2
Weight: 9-5
ISP: 8/1
IP Hi/Lo: -/5
Trading Opportunity: Showed weakness in previous races with a high IP. Potential lay-to-back candidate if initial price is low.
VAULT OF HEAVEN (IRE)
Jockey: Ben Sanderson
Age: 2
Weight: 9-5
ISP: N/A
IP Hi/Lo: N/A
Trading Opportunity: No form data available, debut run. Speculative trading opportunity based on market movements.
GO STEELERS GO
Jockey: Ray Dawson
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
ISP: N/A
IP Hi/Lo: N/A
Trading Opportunity: No form data available, debut run. Speculative trading opportunity based on market movements.
HETTIE JACK
Jockey: Darragh Keenan
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
ISP: N/A
IP Hi/Lo: N/A
Trading Opportunity: No form data available, debut run. Speculative trading opportunity based on market movements.
FIORELLA PRINCESS (IRE)
Jockey: Adam Farragher
Age: 2
Weight: 9-0
ISP: N/A
IP Hi/Lo: N/A
Trading Opportunity: No form data available, debut run. Speculative trading opportunity based on market movements.
Summary of Trading Opportunities:
Back-to-Lay Candidates:
THE DRAGON KING (IRE): Consistent low in-play highs, good favorite.
CYCLONITE (USA): Potential improvement expected; good early price movement.
Lay-to-Back Candidates:
FAR ABOVE THE LAW (IRE): High in-play highs in previous races.
INSHAD (IRE): High in-play highs indicating weak finishing.
Speculative Trading:
Debut runners: CRIMSON LAD (IRE), INERTIA (IRE), VAULT OF HEAVEN (IRE), GO STEELERS GO, HETTIE JACK, FIORELLA PRINCESS (IRE). Monitor early market movements for any signs of support or drift.
By focusing on the runners with clear IP Hi/Lo trends and potential for improvement, you can better navigate trading opportunities for this race.
Race Details:
Date: 18:07, Sat 18 May 2024
Distance: 5f 3y
Surface: Turf
Going: Good to Firm
Runners: 9
Pace Forecast: Even
Draw Bias: N/A
Specific Pace Hint: THE DRAGON KING (IRE) has a significant chance regardless of pace.
Runners Analysis:
CRIMSON LAD (IRE)
Jockey: Ryan Sexton
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
ISP: N/A
IP Hi/Lo: N/A
Trading Opportunity: No form data available, speculative trading opportunity based on pedigree.
CYCLONITE (USA)
Jockey: Daniel Muscutt
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
ISP: 13/2
IP Hi/Lo: -/26
Trading Opportunity: Showed potential with a significant in-play high on debut; a possible back-to-lay candidate if he shows early promise.
INERTIA (IRE)
Jockey: Phil Dennis
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
ISP: N/A
IP Hi/Lo: N/A
Trading Opportunity: No form data available, debut run. Speculative trading opportunity based on market movements.
INSHAD (IRE)
Jockey: Grace McEntee
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
ISP: 6/1
IP Hi/Lo: -/280
Trading Opportunity: High IP in the previous race suggests laying off early if price drops significantly in-play.
THE DRAGON KING (IRE)
Jockey: Jim Crowley
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
ISP: 8/13f
IP Hi/Lo: -/1.75
Trading Opportunity: Strong favorite, very low in-play high in previous races. Ideal for back-to-lay strategy if the initial price is high enough to allow laying off at lower odds.
FAR ABOVE THE LAW (IRE)
Jockey: Kieran O'Neill
Age: 2
Weight: 9-5
ISP: 8/1
IP Hi/Lo: -/5
Trading Opportunity: Showed weakness in previous races with a high IP. Potential lay-to-back candidate if initial price is low.
VAULT OF HEAVEN (IRE)
Jockey: Ben Sanderson
Age: 2
Weight: 9-5
ISP: N/A
IP Hi/Lo: N/A
Trading Opportunity: No form data available, debut run. Speculative trading opportunity based on market movements.
GO STEELERS GO
Jockey: Ray Dawson
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
ISP: N/A
IP Hi/Lo: N/A
Trading Opportunity: No form data available, debut run. Speculative trading opportunity based on market movements.
HETTIE JACK
Jockey: Darragh Keenan
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
ISP: N/A
IP Hi/Lo: N/A
Trading Opportunity: No form data available, debut run. Speculative trading opportunity based on market movements.
FIORELLA PRINCESS (IRE)
Jockey: Adam Farragher
Age: 2
Weight: 9-0
ISP: N/A
IP Hi/Lo: N/A
Trading Opportunity: No form data available, debut run. Speculative trading opportunity based on market movements.
Summary of Trading Opportunities:
Back-to-Lay Candidates:
THE DRAGON KING (IRE): Consistent low in-play highs, good favorite.
CYCLONITE (USA): Potential improvement expected; good early price movement.
Lay-to-Back Candidates:
FAR ABOVE THE LAW (IRE): High in-play highs in previous races.
INSHAD (IRE): High in-play highs indicating weak finishing.
Speculative Trading:
Debut runners: CRIMSON LAD (IRE), INERTIA (IRE), VAULT OF HEAVEN (IRE), GO STEELERS GO, HETTIE JACK, FIORELLA PRINCESS (IRE). Monitor early market movements for any signs of support or drift.
By focusing on the runners with clear IP Hi/Lo trends and potential for improvement, you can better navigate trading opportunities for this race.
I just managed to get a bet taken before the off.
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
The Dragon King
2.4
£3.00
£4.20
Ref: 348992843069
Submitted: 18:06 18-May-24
I'll debrief Ms Flibble when the full results are confirmed.
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
The Dragon King
2.4
£3.00
£4.20
Ref: 348992843069
Submitted: 18:06 18-May-24
I'll debrief Ms Flibble when the full results are confirmed.
Ms Flibble Experiment
Early Doors - Dutch £3.84
Sounds Like A Plan
King Thistle
Bamako
Weegeebear
Gangsta Man
Katie Ross
Dutch 2TBP £4.41
Middle Earth
King of Conquest
Win and Trade
Big Rock -£2.00
Night Race Cards
The Dragon King £3.87
My Bets (NO Flibble)
Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £11.49
Experiment Profit Bank £12
Early Doors - Dutch £3.84
Sounds Like A Plan
King Thistle
Bamako
Weegeebear
Gangsta Man
Katie Ross
Dutch 2TBP £4.41
Middle Earth
King of Conquest
Win and Trade
Big Rock -£2.00
Night Race Cards
The Dragon King £3.87
My Bets (NO Flibble)
Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £11.49
Experiment Profit Bank £12
Weird, I just thought, why not give a go and in less than 2 minutes the data finally came in (server busy) backed the top pick and got the bet on just in time.
Specific Pace Hint: THE DRAGON KING (IRE) has a significant chance regardless of pace.
Maybe Ms Fibble was calling me? Who knows! Spooky! LOL
Specific Pace Hint: THE DRAGON KING (IRE) has a significant chance regardless of pace.
Maybe Ms Fibble was calling me? Who knows! Spooky! LOL
Probably it was a flash in the pan.
But wtf £3.87 is in the Kitbag :}
But wtf £3.87 is in the Kitbag :}
Analysis of IP Hi/Lo Data Results
Race: 18:07 GET RACEDAY READY RESTRICTED MAIDEN STAKES (4) (D.II)
Distance: 5f 3y
Surface: Turf
Going: Good to Firm
Pace Forecast: Even
Results
1st Place: THE DRAGON KING (IRE)
Jockey: Jim Crowley
SP: 5/4 f
IP Hi/Lo: -/1.75 (Previous Race)
Trading Opportunity Analysis:
Performance: As expected, THE DRAGON KING (IRE) performed well and justified his favouritism.
Trading Strategy: The pre-race analysis highlighted THE DRAGON KING (IRE) as an ideal back-to-lay candidate due to his strong performance and low in-play highs. This strategy would have worked well, with the horse likely trading low in-play, allowing for profitable lay bets.
2nd Place: FIORELLA PRINCESS (IRE)
Jockey: Adam Farragher
SP: 8/1
IP Hi/Lo: N/A (Debut)
Trading Opportunity Analysis:
Performance: FIORELLA PRINCESS (IRE) made a notable debut by finishing second, suggesting strong potential and market support.
Trading Strategy: As a debut runner, there was limited data. However, monitoring early market movements and support would have indicated potential. A speculative back bet at the start could have yielded profits, especially given her strong finish.
3rd Place: FAR ABOVE THE LAW (IRE)
Jockey: Kieran O'Neill
SP: 9/1
IP Hi/Lo: -/5 (Previous Race)
Trading Opportunity Analysis:
Performance: FAR ABOVE THE LAW (IRE) performed better than expected, securing third place.
Trading Strategy: Pre-race analysis suggested this horse as a lay-to-back candidate due to previous high in-play highs. This strategy could have been employed effectively, with FAR ABOVE THE LAW (IRE) trading higher in-play before securing a respectable finish.
Summary of Trading Outcomes:
THE DRAGON KING (IRE): Delivered as the favourite, ideal for back-to-lay strategy.
FIORELLA PRINCESS (IRE): Strong debut performance, showing the value of speculative back bets on debut runners with market support.
FAR ABOVE THE LAW (IRE): Outperformed expectations, validating the lay-to-back strategy for this race.
Insights:
Back-to-Lay Strategy: Proven effective for strong favourites like THE DRAGON KING (IRE), especially with consistently low in-play highs.
Speculative Debut Backs: FIORELLA PRINCESS (IRE)'s performance highlights the potential for debut runners, especially when there's market support and strong pedigree indicators.
Lay-to-Back Opportunities: FAR ABOVE THE LAW (IRE)'s high in-play prices provide good opportunities for initial lay bets, which can be backed at higher prices.
By analyzing IP Hi/Lo data and combining it with form, market movements, and race conditions, you can effectively identify and capitalize on trading opportunities in horse racing markets.
Race: 18:07 GET RACEDAY READY RESTRICTED MAIDEN STAKES (4) (D.II)
Distance: 5f 3y
Surface: Turf
Going: Good to Firm
Pace Forecast: Even
Results
1st Place: THE DRAGON KING (IRE)
Jockey: Jim Crowley
SP: 5/4 f
IP Hi/Lo: -/1.75 (Previous Race)
Trading Opportunity Analysis:
Performance: As expected, THE DRAGON KING (IRE) performed well and justified his favouritism.
Trading Strategy: The pre-race analysis highlighted THE DRAGON KING (IRE) as an ideal back-to-lay candidate due to his strong performance and low in-play highs. This strategy would have worked well, with the horse likely trading low in-play, allowing for profitable lay bets.
2nd Place: FIORELLA PRINCESS (IRE)
Jockey: Adam Farragher
SP: 8/1
IP Hi/Lo: N/A (Debut)
Trading Opportunity Analysis:
Performance: FIORELLA PRINCESS (IRE) made a notable debut by finishing second, suggesting strong potential and market support.
Trading Strategy: As a debut runner, there was limited data. However, monitoring early market movements and support would have indicated potential. A speculative back bet at the start could have yielded profits, especially given her strong finish.
3rd Place: FAR ABOVE THE LAW (IRE)
Jockey: Kieran O'Neill
SP: 9/1
IP Hi/Lo: -/5 (Previous Race)
Trading Opportunity Analysis:
Performance: FAR ABOVE THE LAW (IRE) performed better than expected, securing third place.
Trading Strategy: Pre-race analysis suggested this horse as a lay-to-back candidate due to previous high in-play highs. This strategy could have been employed effectively, with FAR ABOVE THE LAW (IRE) trading higher in-play before securing a respectable finish.
Summary of Trading Outcomes:
THE DRAGON KING (IRE): Delivered as the favourite, ideal for back-to-lay strategy.
FIORELLA PRINCESS (IRE): Strong debut performance, showing the value of speculative back bets on debut runners with market support.
FAR ABOVE THE LAW (IRE): Outperformed expectations, validating the lay-to-back strategy for this race.
Insights:
Back-to-Lay Strategy: Proven effective for strong favourites like THE DRAGON KING (IRE), especially with consistently low in-play highs.
Speculative Debut Backs: FIORELLA PRINCESS (IRE)'s performance highlights the potential for debut runners, especially when there's market support and strong pedigree indicators.
Lay-to-Back Opportunities: FAR ABOVE THE LAW (IRE)'s high in-play prices provide good opportunities for initial lay bets, which can be backed at higher prices.
By analyzing IP Hi/Lo data and combining it with form, market movements, and race conditions, you can effectively identify and capitalize on trading opportunities in horse racing markets.
Analysis of the 19:50 Race on Sat 18 May 2024: RACING SUPPORTING MENTAL HEALTH AWARENESS WEEK HANDICAP (4)
Race Details
Distance: 6f 2y
Prize: £5,653
Rated: (0-85)
Age: 4yo+
Surface: Turf
Going: Good to Firm
Runners: 10
Pace Forecast: Strong
Draw Bias: Favours Low
Key Horses and In-Running Price (IP) Data
MYTHICAL PHOENIX (IRE)
Form: 7214-2
Jockey: Ryan Sexton
Odds: 11/4
Draw: 6
Trainer: Julie Camacho
In-Running Price Hi/Lo: 8.31 / 1.3 (Latest race)
Comment: Strong form from the last race, finishing second to a notable winner. Likely to perform well with a projected strong pace favoring this horse.
LIVE IN THE MOMENT (IRE)
Form: 3640106-6
Jockey: Kieran O'Neill
Odds: 9/1
Draw: 7
Trainer: Alice Haynes
In-Running Price Hi/Lo: 20 / 9.6 (Latest race)
Comment: Off for 7 months but has past performance at this track. Could be a strong contender if he builds on previous form.
BERNARDO O'REILLY
Form: 748456-66
Jockey: Darragh Keenan
Odds: 13/2
Draw: 3
Trainer: Richard Spencer
In-Running Price Hi/Lo: 14.65 / 10 (Latest race)
Comment: Has a good record at Doncaster and is coming back into form. His draw and pace bias could work in his favor.
EQUIANO SPRINGS
Form: 80481693-
Jockey: Tom Queally
Odds: 17/2
Draw: 5
Trainer: Tom Tate
In-Running Price Hi/Lo: 12.5 / 3.9 (Latest race)
Comment: A C&D winner with consistent past performances. Returning after a break, and should be considered if conditions suit.
Trading Opportunities Based on In-Running Data
MYTHICAL PHOENIX (IRE)
Opportunity: This horse showed a significant drop in running price from 8.31 to 1.3, indicating strong finishing potential. Trading in-running could capitalize on this trend.
LIVE IN THE MOMENT (IRE)
Opportunity: Priced high at 20 but dropped to 9.6 in-running. If showing improvement, there could be a profitable drop in running prices during the race.
BERNARDO O'REILLY
Opportunity: In-running prices ranged from 14.65 to 10. If the pace and conditions favor him, there is a potential for a good trading position with in-running price drops.
EQUIANO SPRINGS
Opportunity: Consistent drops in running prices in previous races suggest a strong contender to watch. In-running price trading could yield benefits if the horse performs as expected.
Conclusion
For trading opportunities, focus on MYTHICAL PHOENIX for a significant drop in running prices due to recent form. LIVE IN THE MOMENT and BERNARDO O'REILLY also offer potential in-running trading positions. EQUIANO SPRINGS is a solid choice with a consistent past performance at this track, making it a reliable option for in-running trading strategies.
Betting Forecast
11/4 Mythical Phoenix
6/1 Tyke
13/2 Bernardo O'Reilly
17/2 Equiano Springs
9/1 Live In The Moment
9/1 Onslow Gardens
14/1 Home City
20/1 Rathbone
25/1 Assessment
40/1 Gis A Sub
Race Details
Distance: 6f 2y
Prize: £5,653
Rated: (0-85)
Age: 4yo+
Surface: Turf
Going: Good to Firm
Runners: 10
Pace Forecast: Strong
Draw Bias: Favours Low
Key Horses and In-Running Price (IP) Data
MYTHICAL PHOENIX (IRE)
Form: 7214-2
Jockey: Ryan Sexton
Odds: 11/4
Draw: 6
Trainer: Julie Camacho
In-Running Price Hi/Lo: 8.31 / 1.3 (Latest race)
Comment: Strong form from the last race, finishing second to a notable winner. Likely to perform well with a projected strong pace favoring this horse.
LIVE IN THE MOMENT (IRE)
Form: 3640106-6
Jockey: Kieran O'Neill
Odds: 9/1
Draw: 7
Trainer: Alice Haynes
In-Running Price Hi/Lo: 20 / 9.6 (Latest race)
Comment: Off for 7 months but has past performance at this track. Could be a strong contender if he builds on previous form.
BERNARDO O'REILLY
Form: 748456-66
Jockey: Darragh Keenan
Odds: 13/2
Draw: 3
Trainer: Richard Spencer
In-Running Price Hi/Lo: 14.65 / 10 (Latest race)
Comment: Has a good record at Doncaster and is coming back into form. His draw and pace bias could work in his favor.
EQUIANO SPRINGS
Form: 80481693-
Jockey: Tom Queally
Odds: 17/2
Draw: 5
Trainer: Tom Tate
In-Running Price Hi/Lo: 12.5 / 3.9 (Latest race)
Comment: A C&D winner with consistent past performances. Returning after a break, and should be considered if conditions suit.
Trading Opportunities Based on In-Running Data
MYTHICAL PHOENIX (IRE)
Opportunity: This horse showed a significant drop in running price from 8.31 to 1.3, indicating strong finishing potential. Trading in-running could capitalize on this trend.
LIVE IN THE MOMENT (IRE)
Opportunity: Priced high at 20 but dropped to 9.6 in-running. If showing improvement, there could be a profitable drop in running prices during the race.
BERNARDO O'REILLY
Opportunity: In-running prices ranged from 14.65 to 10. If the pace and conditions favor him, there is a potential for a good trading position with in-running price drops.
EQUIANO SPRINGS
Opportunity: Consistent drops in running prices in previous races suggest a strong contender to watch. In-running price trading could yield benefits if the horse performs as expected.
Conclusion
For trading opportunities, focus on MYTHICAL PHOENIX for a significant drop in running prices due to recent form. LIVE IN THE MOMENT and BERNARDO O'REILLY also offer potential in-running trading positions. EQUIANO SPRINGS is a solid choice with a consistent past performance at this track, making it a reliable option for in-running trading strategies.
Betting Forecast
11/4 Mythical Phoenix
6/1 Tyke
13/2 Bernardo O'Reilly
17/2 Equiano Springs
9/1 Live In The Moment
9/1 Onslow Gardens
14/1 Home City
20/1 Rathbone
25/1 Assessment
40/1 Gis A Sub
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
Mythical Phoenix
4.4
£3.00
£10.20
Ref: 349010303938
Submitted: 19:50 18-May-24
At In-Play, this unmatched bet will be kept
Odds
Stake
Profit
Mythical Phoenix
4.4
£3.00
£10.20
Ref: 349010303938
Submitted: 19:50 18-May-24
At In-Play, this unmatched bet will be kept
It takes under 1.5 minutes to grab the data and no mistakes are made!
I've been practising. ;)
Let's wait until I debrief Flibbs but Mythical Phoenix is for the titbag. However, it did show over 50% of sp green at points during the race.
I've been practising. ;)
Let's wait until I debrief Flibbs but Mythical Phoenix is for the titbag. However, it did show over 50% of sp green at points during the race.
My feeling is to prepare the data well before the off time instead of leaving it until the last moment to decide which runner to back. DOH! that's a school boy error.
Analyzing the in-play Hi/Lo data results for the 19:50 RACING SUPPORTING MENTAL HEALTH AWARENESS WEEK HANDICAP (4), we can identify potential trading opportunities and key performance indicators. Here is a detailed analysis:
Key Race Information:
Race Distance: 6f 2y
Surface: Turf
Going: Good to Firm
Runners: 10
Pace Forecast: Strong
Draw Bias: Favours Low
Results:
Tyke (IRE) (Alistair Rawlinson)
Starting Odds: 16/1
In-Play Hi/Lo: Not provided in the data, but given the odds, the in-play low would likely be significantly lower as he won the race.
Remarks: Tyke showed a strong performance, overcoming his starting odds of 16/1 to win the race. This indicates a significant drop in in-play odds, presenting a good trading opportunity for those who backed him at higher odds and laid off at lower odds.
Mythical Phoenix (IRE) (Ryan Sexton)
Starting Odds: 11/4 (favorite)
In-Play Hi/Lo: Likely fluctuated around the odds-on region as he was a strong contender and finished second.
Remarks: As the favorite, Mythical Phoenix’s odds would have fluctuated less dramatically, but there could have been small windows for trading, particularly if his odds rose slightly mid-race before he secured second place.
Home City (IRE) (Mark Winn)
Starting Odds: 14/1
In-Play Hi/Lo: Again, not provided, but his finishing position suggests a significant drop from the starting odds.
Remarks: Home City’s performance to finish third at 14/1 starting odds indicates another potential profitable trade. His in-play low odds would have provided a good opportunity for traders to lay off at a profit.
Insights from In-Play Trading:
Strong Finishers:
Horses that finished in the top three from relatively high starting odds (Tyke at 16/1 and Home City at 14/1) suggest they made significant improvements during the race, likely dropping their in-play odds substantially.
Favourites:
The favourite, Mythical Phoenix, performed consistently, which means less dramatic in-play odds movements. However, steady performances can still present trading opportunities, especially if the favourite encounters unexpected challenges mid-race.
Trading Opportunities:
High Starting Odds:
Tyke and Home City provided the best trading opportunities. Backing these horses at high starting odds and laying off as their odds dropped in-play would have yielded significant returns.
Monitoring Pace and Draw: Given the strong pace forecast and draw bias favouring low, analyzing these factors could help identify potential in-play trading opportunities. For instance, horses starting with a low draw and positioned well early could see their odds drop significantly in-play.
Conclusion:
For effective in-play trading, focusing on horses with higher starting odds that show potential for improvement during the race can be highly profitable. Consistent favourites, while less volatile, can still offer trading windows if monitored closely for any signs of mid-race fluctuation. Understanding race dynamics, such as pace and draw bias, also plays a crucial role in identifying profitable trades.
Key Race Information:
Race Distance: 6f 2y
Surface: Turf
Going: Good to Firm
Runners: 10
Pace Forecast: Strong
Draw Bias: Favours Low
Results:
Tyke (IRE) (Alistair Rawlinson)
Starting Odds: 16/1
In-Play Hi/Lo: Not provided in the data, but given the odds, the in-play low would likely be significantly lower as he won the race.
Remarks: Tyke showed a strong performance, overcoming his starting odds of 16/1 to win the race. This indicates a significant drop in in-play odds, presenting a good trading opportunity for those who backed him at higher odds and laid off at lower odds.
Mythical Phoenix (IRE) (Ryan Sexton)
Starting Odds: 11/4 (favorite)
In-Play Hi/Lo: Likely fluctuated around the odds-on region as he was a strong contender and finished second.
Remarks: As the favorite, Mythical Phoenix’s odds would have fluctuated less dramatically, but there could have been small windows for trading, particularly if his odds rose slightly mid-race before he secured second place.
Home City (IRE) (Mark Winn)
Starting Odds: 14/1
In-Play Hi/Lo: Again, not provided, but his finishing position suggests a significant drop from the starting odds.
Remarks: Home City’s performance to finish third at 14/1 starting odds indicates another potential profitable trade. His in-play low odds would have provided a good opportunity for traders to lay off at a profit.
Insights from In-Play Trading:
Strong Finishers:
Horses that finished in the top three from relatively high starting odds (Tyke at 16/1 and Home City at 14/1) suggest they made significant improvements during the race, likely dropping their in-play odds substantially.
Favourites:
The favourite, Mythical Phoenix, performed consistently, which means less dramatic in-play odds movements. However, steady performances can still present trading opportunities, especially if the favourite encounters unexpected challenges mid-race.
Trading Opportunities:
High Starting Odds:
Tyke and Home City provided the best trading opportunities. Backing these horses at high starting odds and laying off as their odds dropped in-play would have yielded significant returns.
Monitoring Pace and Draw: Given the strong pace forecast and draw bias favouring low, analyzing these factors could help identify potential in-play trading opportunities. For instance, horses starting with a low draw and positioned well early could see their odds drop significantly in-play.
Conclusion:
For effective in-play trading, focusing on horses with higher starting odds that show potential for improvement during the race can be highly profitable. Consistent favourites, while less volatile, can still offer trading windows if monitored closely for any signs of mid-race fluctuation. Understanding race dynamics, such as pace and draw bias, also plays a crucial role in identifying profitable trades.
I didn't have the radio on but now I can imagine what is happening by watching Fairbot in Sort Order: Back Odds screen. It can go crazy sometimes but that adds to the entertainment. :}
I will use the new system for tomorrow's Early Doors selections and a suitable race or two in the afternoon card. In the meantime, I need to find an American and Australian source for the data. If I have another painful night with no sleep at least I'll be doing something useful.
Testing and Adjusting are key to a successful strategy.
Sim land is not just for potato heads! LOL
Good day today.
I'll see you tomorrow unless I see you first.
Testing and Adjusting are key to a successful strategy.
Sim land is not just for potato heads! LOL
Good day today.
I'll see you tomorrow unless I see you first.
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