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askjack
17 May 24 02:57
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Nov 08
| Topic/replies: 1,172 | Blogger: askjack's blog
EARLY DOORS EXPERIMENT 14:00 Newbury Fri 17 May 1m Hcap

Mrs Flibble/ChatGPT 4.0 (free edition) Opinions NOT Tips

Based on the form, recent performances, and odds, here are three picks for a Dutch bet:

   
    1. DARVEL (IRE) (6):
        ◦ Odds: 4.5
        ◦ Recent Form: Won decisively at Bath (8f, good to soft) after a six-month break.
        ◦ Analysis: A 3 lb rise is manageable, and he’s shown enthusiasm in recent races, making him a strong contender.
    2. JOHNJAY (11):
        ◦ Odds: 4.1
        ◦ Recent Form: Third at Bath (8f, good to soft) 4 weeks ago after a 10-month break.
        ◦ Analysis: Consistent performance and likely to be in the shake-up from the same mark.
    3. MARSH BENHAM (IRE) (1):
        ◦ Odds: 9.6
        ◦ Recent Form: Entitled to improve after a recent effort at Brighton.
        ◦ Analysis: Step back up in trip should suit, making him a valuable inclusion in a Dutch bet.

Straight Win Bet
For a straight win bet, selecting a horse with a good combination of recent form and favorable conditions is crucial. Based on the data:
    • DARVEL (IRE) (6):
        ◦ Analysis: Strong recent performance, manageable weight rise, and good enthusiasm shown. He's likely to be in form and can potentially secure a win.

Place Bet
A place bet focuses on horses likely to finish in the top positions. Considering consistency and recent form:
    • JOHNJAY (11):
        ◦ Analysis: Returned from a long break with a strong performance, indicating fitness and readiness. Consistent previous form suggests a good chance of placing.

Outsider Longshot
For an outsider longshot, we look for a horse with higher odds but a potential to surprise:
    • LANDLORDTOTHESTARS (IRE) (4):
        ◦ Odds: 9
        ◦ Recent Form: No longer looks progressive but back on turf which might suit better.
        ◦ Analysis: With a potentially sharper performance expected back on turf, this horse could outperform expectations at higher odds.

Summary of Bets
    • Dutch Bet: DARVEL (IRE) (6), JOHNJAY (11), MARSH BENHAM (IRE) (1)
    • Straight Win Bet: DARVEL (IRE) (6)
    • Place Bet: JOHNJAY (11)
    • Outsider Longshot: LANDLORDTOTHESTARS (IRE) (4)

This strategic approach covers different betting angles, providing a balanced mix of safer bets and potential high-reward options.
Always remember to bet responsibly and within your means.
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Report askjack • May 17, 2024 3:01 AM BST
Sleeper Trade

Darvel 4.60 £8.00 £28.80

Ref: 348767425758 Matched: 02:32 17-May-24
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 3:06 AM BST
Mrs Flibble Experiment - 14:00 Newbury Fri 17 May 1m Hcap

Notebook

Sleep Trade                  £0
     
Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors



My Bets (NO Flibble)



Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £5.31

Experiment Profit Bank        £11
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 3:52 AM BST
Mrs. Flibble has been upgraded to ChatGPT 4.0 FREE Edition!
I had noticed that Flibble had been acting strange over the last few days, and now we know why.
Her opinions on race outcomes have been getting progressively "cheeky," and the formatting has been changing almost daily.
Example from yesterday: "Considering these horse details, it's essential to acknowledge that I'm not a betting expert, but the lineup you've presented offers an intriguing range of choices."
This is the first time I really noticed that she referred to herself in the first person or as a person at all!
This is a big upgrade with implications for all users of ChatGPT, in my opinion.
The Sleeper Trade is a bet taken at the odds offered with no tick offset.
With luck, the price will come in and produce an overnight profit.
I'm looking forward to seeing if Flibble picks more or fewer profits from the early door selections.
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 4:08 AM BST
Mrs Flibble Experiment - 14:00 Newbury Fri 17 May 1m Hcap

Notebook

Sleep Trade                  £8 (cashout regardless of P/L around 1.30 pm)
     
Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors



My Bets (NO Flibble)



Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £8.31

Experiment Profit Bank        £8
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 5:00 AM BST
Are you Wondering why I'm up at 04:36 watching Australian racing?
I'm testing (sim mode) a strategy that auto places a Dutch on the 2 front runners 1 minute AFTER the off. The conditions to place the bet are, the odds are equal to or lower than SP.
Well, the idea is to auto-select front-runners that might steal the race.
It might take a while to work out the best setting and timings but I feel it's worth "giving it a go!
Every experiment takes a lot of work to get a strategy to run at the absolute optimal settings.
Test and adjust is the name of the game!
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 5:40 AM BST
Optimal Races Times
5f     45 secs
6f     58 secs
7f     73 secs
1m     86 secs
1m 1f 102 secs
1m 2f 116 secs
1m 3f 130 secs
1m 4f 145 secs
1m 5f 161 secs
1m 6f 178 secs
1m 7f 200 secs
2m -- 222 secs
2m 1f 240 secs
2m 2f 258 secs

These timings place the bet 15 seconds before the end. Hopefully, when the jockeys start the "vinegar strokes" and push to the line with maximum effort.
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 5:51 AM BST
At the moment I'm using 45 secs across the board.
I'll need a condition that selects each race by distance of race and the number of seconds to place the bet into the market.
Hmm... interesting problem.
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 6:04 AM BST
It's time to pack it up for the night and grab a nap :)

See you around 1 pm unless I see you first!
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 10:57 AM BST
May 17, 2024 3:52 AM BST

The Sleeper Trade is a bet taken at the odds offered with no tick offset.
With luck, the price will come in and produce an overnight profit.
///////////////

The sleeper trade is not going well.
Darvel
Liability:
£8.00
Cash Out
£4.34
Profit:
-£3.66

There are still 4 hrs before they are off and running. I'm not panicking just concerned.

A check of the jockeys reveals nothing to explain why Johnjay turned into a steamer instead of Darvel.

Johnjay
Mikkel Mortensen
Licence
Apprentice
Lowest riding weight in last 12 months
7-12
%    2ND    3RD    4THS    WINNINGS    TOTAL EARNINGS    £1 STAKE
2yo AW    0    0    —    0    0    0    —    —    0.00
2yo turf    0    3    0    0    1    1    —    £2,790    -3.00
3yo AW    0    18    0    2    1    2    —    £5,370    -18.00
3yo turf    0    10    0    0    1    2    —    £1,949    -10.00
4yo+ AW    2    26    8    6    3    1    £12,212    £33,166    -1.50
4yo+ turf    5    22    23    2    3    2    £28,735    £36,900    +5.08
TOTAL    7    79    9    10    9    8    £40,947    £80,175    -27.42

Darvel
Olivia Tubb
Licence
Apprentice
Lowest riding weight in last 12 months
8-3
%    2ND    3RD    4THS    WINNINGS    TOTAL EARNINGS    £1 STAKE
2yo AW    0    3    0    0    2    0    —    £1,497    -3.00
2yo turf    1    5    20    1    2    0    £3,245    £6,412    -0.50
3yo AW    0    7    0    1    1    1    —    £3,235    -7.00
3yo turf    3    12    25    1    3    1    £12,231    £17,446    +34.00
4yo+ AW    3    27    11    3    3    3    £11,698    £22,315    +1.20
4yo+ turf    8    41    20    3    8    5    £39,535    £56,074    +3.42
TOTAL    15    95    16    9    19    10    £66,709    £106,978    +28.12
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 11:16 AM BST
Maybe the market odds reflect Roger Teal's superior trainer record?

Johnjay
Roger Teal
Lambourn, Berks
RTF 36%
Horses running to
form in last 14 days
%        WINNERS / HORSES    TOTAL EARNINGS    £1 STAKE    BEST IN CATEGORY    RPR
2yo AW    9    60    15    11    8/29    £52,814    -1.85    Gussy Mac    91
2yo turf    12    85    14    19    10/36    £211,446    -2.58    Dancing Gemini    110
3yo AW    17    145    12    21    14/53    £111,060    -16.38    Caragio    93
3yo turf    10    157    6    22    7/54    £150,936    -96.17    Dancing Magic    104
4yo+ AW    40    315    13    65    18/62    £418,478    +38.62    Ocean Wind    109
4yo+ turf    30    284    11    51    16/58    £933,049    +14.83    Oxted    123
TOTAL    118    1046    11    189    53/120    £1,877,782    -63.52    Oxted    123

Darvel
Patrick Chamings
Baughurst, Hants
RTF 20%
Horses running to
form in last 14 days
%        WINNERS / HORSES    TOTAL EARNINGS    £1 STAKE    BEST IN CATEGORY    RPR
2yo AW    0    1    0    0    0/1    —    -1.00    Spanish Storm    29
2yo turf    0    1    0    0    0/1    £431    -1.00    Spanish Storm    41
3yo AW    2    28    7    1    2/14    £9,610    +17.00    Top Class Angel    81
3yo turf    2    21    10    0    1/12    £6,760    -7.50    Coco Bear    81
4yo+ AW    20    249    8    47    14/34    £128,041    -79.30    Spanish Star    86
4yo+ turf    23    270    9    54    10/36    £258,066    -3.22    Spanish Star    99
TOTAL    47    570    8    102    20/49    £402,908    -75.02    Spanish Star    99
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 11:23 AM BST
It's a young pups race riding horses with experience ffs.

Anything could win!

I never intended to back the full bollixs of today's stake allowance.
Report OilyWragg • May 17, 2024 11:30 AM BST
askjack - there used to be a free bot known as the discombobultor, provided by a forum member Mr Magoo,it was all about placing in running bets at certain minutes or seconds after the start of the race, depending on the distance, backing the shortest horse.

Not sure if Magoo is still around?
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 11:42 AM BST
Thanks for that, oily.

I'll look into it.
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 12:13 PM BST
Including results for What is the meaning of the word discombobulate?
Search only for What is the meaning of the word discombobulator?

Informal. to confuse or disconcert; confound; bewilder: The speaker was completely discombobulated by the hecklers.

If nothing else, I adding "discombobulated" to my Tits vocabulary. LOL

I'll keep looking.
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 12:34 PM BST
Nothing doing on a betting bot. However, I did find out that some people can be discombobulated sexually.

Strange words you search for often turn up unexpected results!
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 1:31 PM BST
With 1/2 hr to go it looks like I'm going to take a loss on the Sleeper Trade :(pissed off face)

I'll give it until 10 minutes before the off.

The plan is to cash out and accept the loss.

Then put a £1 back on Darvel to win to recover the losses.

Mrs Flibble thinks it's a good plan.
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 1:46 PM BST
Mrs Flibble Experiment - 14:00 Newbury Fri 17 May 1m Hcap

Notebook

Sleep Trade                  -£3.16 (cashout 13:54)
     
Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors -Darvel



My Bets (NO Flibble)



Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £5.15

Experiment Profit Bank        £8

////////////////

Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
Darvel
7.6
£1.00
£6.60
Ref: 348804176530
Matched: 13:45 17-May-24
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 2:10 PM BST
Darvel, looking like a discombobulated tit goes into the titbag


Notebook

Sleep Trade                  -£3.16 (cashout 13:54)
     
Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors -Darvel          -£1.00



My Bets (NO Flibble)



Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £4.15

Experiment Profit Bank        £8

Onward and upward!
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 2:13 PM BST
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit
It Aint Two
5.2
£1.00
£4.20
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 2:21 PM BST
In the titbag

Darvel, looking like a discombobulated tit goes into the titbag


Notebook

Sleep Trade                  -£3.16 (cashout 13:54)
     
Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors -Darvel          -£1.00



My Bets (NO Flibble)
It' Aint Two                 -£1.00


Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £3.15

Experiment Profit Bank        £8

Onward and upward!
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 2:46 PM BST
In the titbag

Galant Lion trots up and climbs into the titbag.


Notebook

Sleep Trade                  -£3.16 (cashout 13:54)
     
Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors -Darvel          -£1.00



My Bets (NO Flibble)
It' Aint Two                 -£1.00
Gallant Lion                 -£1.00


Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £2.15

Experiment Profit Bank        £8

Onward and upward!

Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is imminent.
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 3:03 PM BST
In the kitbag

Defence Missle climbs into the kitbag.


Notebook

Sleep Trade                  -£3.16 (cashout 13:54)
     
Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors -Darvel          -£1.00



My Bets (NO Flibble)
It' Aint Two                 -£1.00
Gallant Lion                 -£1.00
Defence Missle               

Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £2.15

Experiment Profit Bank        £8

Onward and upward!

Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is imminent.
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 3:13 PM BST
3TBP Defence Missle get in boom!

Notebook

Sleep Trade                  -£3.16 (cashout 13:54)
     
Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors -Darvel          -£1.00



My Bets (NO Flibble)
It' Aint Two                 -£1.00
Gallant Lion                 -£1.00
Defence Missle               £3.31

Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £5.46
Experiment Profit Bank        £8

Onward and upward!

Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is fading.
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 3:20 PM BST
Devoted Queen BOOM!

Notebook

Sleep Trade                  -£3.16 (cashout 13:54)
     
Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors -Darvel          -£1.00



My Bets (NO Flibble)
It' Aint Two                 -£1.00
Gallant Lion                 -£1.00
Defence Missle               £3.31
Devoted Queen                £3.13



Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £8.59
Experiment Profit Bank        £8

Onward and upward!

Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is memory.
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 3:46 PM BST
Night Lark 3tbp - 5:30 Newbury Fri 17 May 7f Nov Stks
In the Titbag

Notebook

Sleep Trade                  -£3.16 (cashout 13:54)
     
Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors -Darvel          -£1.00
Night Lark 3tbp              -£2.00


My Bets (NO Flibble)
It' Aint Two                 -£1.00
Gallant Lion                 -£1.00
Defence Missle               £3.31
Devoted Queen 3tbp           £3.13


Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £6.59
Experiment Profit Bank        £8

Onward and upward!

Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is memory.
Report askjack • May 17, 2024 4:23 PM BST
Dutch goes tits up and in the BAG!
Notebook

Sleep Trade                  -£3.16 (cashout 13:54)
     
Ms Flibble Experiment               
Early Doors -Darvel          -£1.00
Night Lark 3tbp              -£2.00


My Bets (NO Flibble)
It' Aint Two                 -£1.00
Gallant Lion                 -£1.00
Defence Missle               £3.31
Devoted Queen 3tbp           £3.13
Dutch- First Conquest
       Dark Tornado          -£2.00

Friday - Experiment Bankroll: £4.59
Experiment Profit Bank        £8

Onward and upward!

Fairbot Simulation Land Home to The Potato People is a recent memory.

////////////////////////////
I am waiting for the night racing.
////////////////////////////
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