Two year olds

Sands of Mali is fairly unique these days in being a true outcross ie he has zero duplicated ancestors in the first 5 generations of his ancestry. I hope and think this will help him become a outstanding sire of precocious fast 2 year olds and at the same time **** a snoop at all the droning on line- breeders and bloodstock agents claiming inbreeding to this or that fashionable sire and other nonsense

Dieppe 2:57.      Signoria Piazza

May 13, 2024 -- 2:31PM, kingsnake5 wrote:

Dieppe 2:57.

Hammered into 2/1.  Came fourth

Good to have someone new posting on the forum kingsnake. Presumably you're putting up 2 yos on their debuts that you like the breeding of, fair enough but could you post the results of how they get on and are you actually backing them based purely on breeding?

I post two year olds that should be followed in the coming months based on pedigree and birth rank.   Example second foal etc.

Thanks for noticing

Windsor 5:00.    Li Ban

NAD ALSHIBA GREEN  .....one to watch

Smashed up in the market, and ran terrible. What did you like about it?

I liked the pedigree any horse that I post watch them next time out

A tricky decision whether to write and publish this document. On the one hand the established Punditry group are well entrenched and mostly immune from external criticism and show very little ability for self-improvement. Time spent on this could be more usefully applied elsewhere and you would probably be as well 'moon raking'. The Previews over the years have tried to point up some of the more obvious timewasters and general logical absurdities peddled for little return. So, "Why Bother?".

    A couple of reasons perhaps for gathering together enough energy to complete this now. The first would be thinking about who the 'Target Audience' would be. This probably is not a large group but an important one - the Next Generation (NG) of people who will thinking harder about what is going on in horseracing. If they start out with the view that 'success' amounts to mastering the knowledge and techniques on display in the dedicated racing media nothing is going to improve. We will get more of the same unproven, cliched, garbage broadcast for years to come. Help to get some of the NGs starting out on a more worthwhile road into racing analysis and it may help to change things, if only 'eventually'. Do nothing and you are part of the 'Problem'.

    Looking back B2yoR could attest to around 20 Lost Years learning mostly garbage and then trying to unlearn much of it. The difficult problems it causes as you gradually realise how much drivel has been forced down you and just how hard it can be to accept how 'wrong' much of it was/is. Then thinking about how much things can be improved, in a much shorter period, once you break free of the mental shackles. The only useful parts of that initial period would be a basic understanding of racing in general, form reading and so on. You could easily teach someone all of this in a week and they could then practice it. Within a turf season that person would have all that mastered to a level better than that most professional pundits have with the right mind-set and assistance. Which would have left 19 years to have researched something else in the B2yoR case. The echoing waste of it.

Thanks for starting this thread. I will watch with interest

Beverly 2.15
Small field for a Bev 2yOld sprint with 3/8 out of Sire Mehmas . Moving Force looks strongest of the 3 on Breeding and the Owner/Trainer /jockey stats align positively. However being a novice race Its a big + to have had a previous run and Assertively lived up to his name with a Tenacious FTO victory and is a worthy FAV . I will be doing a 2pt SF Assertively to beat Moving force and 1pt the other way.

Not easy to give away that penalty, was impressed with East Tyrone last time , probably came up against one.
Symbol of Strength would be the clear pick of the unraced for me , so 3/6 reversee forcast.

At 30s Nad Alshiba Snow needs a saver with that fillies allowance .

Hope you keep this going. I am a big fan of breeding for unraced horses but tend to wait until 6f plus for 2yos.

Chepstow 6.40

Cayman tai and Sonic si look the 2 to determine this race
Haggas hasn't had a 2 yr old placer this turf season and Bantz is surely not another Relief Rally for his owners (Munir And Suede)Bantz's mum and dad are both entering their twilight years .
Sonic si cost just1000 Gns - that is Lidl peanuts cost and yet he has more than earnt his corn- And as this is a Restricted race meaning he can claim a few lbs on the basis that he cost sweet F A and he is dropping 3 Classes - D Loughnane does well at Chepstow and Rossa Ryan is booked should run a good race

But Cayman tai has some speed genes running through his veins and Earthlight is proving to be a Classy/successful FSS . Hannon is cranking out good 2 yr olds on a regular basis . Cayman is my Win Pick saver   FC Sonic to beat Cayman

B2yoR was an excellent effort. Not sure why anyone would think otherwise.

York 4.45
Good race impossible to be confident BUT
On breeding i was strongest on Shadow army and Bronte the owners ( subset of Clipper Logistics) have their retained jockey and hence Orr the stable jock is on the 2nd of Faheys 3strings . If you RSB Fahey with 3 runners he does well with First string and a fat zero with second string. There are several valid .dangers Francisco piece, zabbeel road, Against the Wind and station X.
I have eliMinated Francisco and Zabeel road on trainer Course Form and JFanning will presumably try and make all from D(1) I am thinking of anchoring Shadow Army and playing Against the wind and Station X in 2 Up and down Forecasts

Munie says
STATION
X

Shadow Army won at 9/2
Thread should read horses to watch out for next year

Bath 5.35

Steamboat is an eye catcher to me on breeding. Clement Casts using Candy and High on Hope. Those that have raced look very easily passed over.

Eyecatcher in the race as well - interesting thread

Watching only today taking notes

York 4.45 (first 2y Old 6F of the Year)

Pinatubo has his first decently bred representative in Tarlac. A homebred so no Purchase Price for the market to hang onto . (Pinatubo Covering Fee is a reasonable £35K ). Tarlac will be a watching rather than a betting brief for me-as i am sceptical that Pinatubo will end up being a good source of early 2 yOld Sprinters . But this is not a deep race so he may well break his cherry .Pinatubo also has Andesite on display but i prefer the bigger priced Tarlac over him . Andasite has Dramatised as a half sister but not much else on his pages and has a difficult D(1)

Seattle cost 2.2 Million - God know why? Was Age 2 only last Friday and vying for favouritism.

I am drawn to Asktheboss WIN on breeding and im hoping OMurphy keeps up his recent all conquering form. Keatley TF (2yO) good and £75 k was a serious lump for this owner Mrs Edelle Logan.  I might keep Asktheboss as a hook and wrap around Tarlac and Loom in forecasts

A few from the above race will be heading for the Coventry at Ascot

I thought that might be one of the better 2yo races so far. Of the first two not sure why you can get a better price on the winner for the Coventry. I thought for a moment Doyle was going to play her impeding the winner card, but fortunately it didn't happen.

The fifth rattled home looking as if another furlong might suit, but that might deceptive as it's a quick family.

Bit of promise at Salisbury from Kassaya. Winner showed a decent attitude, but is probably a now horse. I would imagine that might be Albany and Windsor Castle horses.

I think that Andecite is the first offspring of Pinatubo to win in GB and he looks a nice prospect. Kasseya a bit disappointing but the winner was very determined. Only time will tell us if they are very good.

Hope the Marygate goes better . I reckon the market has correctly identified the right contenders.
My Finishing order is
1st Running Queen
2nd it aint
3rd miss Lamai
4th Rubys profit
Might play combo exotic s to small stakes.

Newbury 2.15
This is more of a contraflow bet but
Its not often that Hannon has a horse with obvious breeding for the job BUT in Wild Cherry
he has and Hannon at Newbury with sean L steering gives me a warm feeling.

Sorry guys I've got the time of races wrong

Nothing special on breeding, but Jayvee a big eyecatcher in the first. From tailed off to ninth, and likely would have won over another furlong. Problem is everyone would have noticed.

May 17, 2024 -- 2:50PM, differentdrum wrote:

Nothing special on breeding, but Jayvee a big eyecatcher in the first. From tailed off to ninth, and likely would have won over another furlong. Problem is everyone would have noticed.

The Sire Dandyman was pretty sharp

I'm taking some time out to research.  Take Care

5:35 Tees Aggregates (Earthlight doing well  and trainer gave me a 2 Yr win today)
6:07 Hettie Jack.   
Going on breeding alone I do like them especially at the prices on offer ( both favs look potential winners) are they worth e/w Small bet?..... I hope so lol

E/W double & singles

Sergio Parisse 5.40 Windsor.  Mentioned on here. Running on strongly at Leicester into 3rd. Looks a sure fire future winner.  Conditions should be a bit quicker here tho. Like the look of Sir Geoff Morgan,who fin well both starts, green at Brighton then staying on strongly over 5f at Chester in the  Lily Agnes. Stall 16 a bit of head scratcher but if taking his chance looks the one to beat.

5:40 Windsor Lady With The Lamp

Back later

You mentioned Seas of Mali before - were you on that winner Sea of Diamonds Kingsnake? Nice FTO.

1stSea Of Diamonds (IRE) (8)7/2Tote £4.50 £1.50
2nd2.25LWe've Got This (IRE) (9)11/2  £2.40
3rd0.5LMagic Micky (IRE) (4)13/2  £2.50
4th1.25LWipeout (GB) (10)

I backed the second as a saver but no forecast

fillies are winning a very high percentage of these mixed maidens now

I have examined the breeding of all the contenders and although Sergio pariss is not the best bred Sergei Prokofiev he is not bad  GGD produced Gilt edge girl  V Classy 5 F and hes ½ To Tennaya canyon and my reservation  against backing him FTO was that he only cost £7.5 k and he's quite a late foal (23 April) but he performed well enough . Cox's TF is a bit in and out and Rossa is showing the signs of needing a rest. So although i am betting him to win its more because of the weakness of the oppo . BRIAN the 150-1 shot is q interesting on breeding .

Decent performance on ground quick enough?

got 14.5 Brian 4 TBP and 3.0 the winner.   

Nottingham 2:40

2.40 Lone Piper has some excellent bloodlines a Merry Fox Homebred IM doing EW

That should win a 2yo race.

Its a 3yo!

Tbf its a good strategy betting 3yo's in 2yo races. Its been done before!!

The race was a Maiden.    33/1 third

3.10 Nott looks a match between the 2 market leaders - both well bred but prefer Gozzers  Shadwell

10 Nott looks a match between the 2 market leaders - both well bred but prefer Gozzers  Shadwell

Lost

Aviation Time.......Kempton 6:30.......win/place

May 22, 2024 -- 10:05AM, kingsnake5 wrote:

Aviation Time.......Kempton 6:30.......win/place

Thank you for pointing me in the right direction.

IPOL data for the 6:30 agrees with your assessment:

Summary
Best Back-to-Lay Candidates:

YALA
AVIATION TIME
SPIRITUALISM
PAINT THE TOWN RED
Three Runners Most Likely to Win:

YALA
AVIATION TIME
SPIRITUALISM
Speculative Outsider Bet:

PAINT THE TOWN RED
These selections are based on in-running price movements and recent performance data, providing potential value for trading strategies and betting. For more detailed race analysis, you can refer to sources like Sky Sports and At The Races​ (Sky Sports)​​ (At The Races)​.

Good luck and all the best.

Jack

Becket is a system bet. Best in stake races.  Yala

My post Aviation Time is based on pedigree





Best of luck

Lightning Force looks interesting in that. By Zoustar. Effectively "bought in" for 32k at auction. It was bred by Ben Sangster and now owned by him but "bought" by the trainer Ollie Sangster. Classic way to qualify a horse for auction races but still in the same hands. The mare was rated 102 and has produced Pastiche. He may not be ready today according to the market but worth watching.

Yarmouth 3:30.

Im with IMPATIENTLY . Benoit has a poor FTO win record 0/26 FTO FILLIES. This one was ££ and money paid at Breeze up so not pedigree guess up money.the owners Valmont are v shrewd but they dont use this trainer and have no Liking for Yarmouth so against ever forget you. I think Varians stable is having a heavy if only temporary blip not surprising following recent  bad blood with AMO AND this spherical looks like a cranked out homebred and blue point is a disappointing SSS  after being a Champ FSS (first season sire)  So on a partly Goldilocks basis and partly in awe of Calyxs stats esp with his fillies im with the Opulence ladies and Impatiently.



Good Luck

Kempton. 6:30

I quite like Deal maker i can see her coming across and grinding it out  AND I like fillies with experience in Novices and i have some interest in Lightening force

Aviation Time.   Won

Lighting Force.   Second

Would have been a nice forecast.   

Didn't see the race but gutted to have a 16/1 (on here) shot beaten a head.

Sands Of Mali (FR)Progeny EntriesProgeny Results
Fiorella Princess (IRE) entered Carlisle on Thursday 30th May 6.25
Toota (IRE) entered Carlisle on Thursday 30th May 6.25
Almanjoor (IRE) entered Carlisle on Thursday 30th May 6.55
Ain't Nobody (IRE) entered Carlisle on Friday 31st May 2.15
Fiorella Princess (IRE) entered Catterick on Friday 31st May 6.25
Toota (IRE) entered Catterick on Friday 31st May 6.25
Pietro (IRE) finished 6th at Windsor on Saturday 25th May 6.05

Tipperary 6:15.   ALFRED TENNYSON

Tipperary 6:15.   ALFRED TENNYSON

Tipperary.   6:45.    TRULY ENCHANTING

Tipperary 2:03.   HUNTING SONG

Tipperary. 2:33.   SURPASS

Please check time

STARRY DESERT      Saver on above race each way

Hamilton 2:50.   MR COOL

I am hardly punting at the moment. I am sticking fast to my old adage that you should only bet when the ground / weather has been consistent for 3 days.

Get 3 days of rain and it was softish 3 days before the meeting, and softish on the day = Bet
Get 3 days of no rain and it was good to firmish 3 days before the meeting, and good to firmish on the day = Bet

Get 3 days of rain and it was good to firmish 3 days before the meeting, and softish (with or without watering) on the day = No Bet
Get 3 days of no rain and it was good to softish 3 days before the meeting, and good to firmish (with or without watering) on the day = No Bet

Sure we have had a lot of rain but the going descriptions 3 days before, and even at the 48hr dec stage are nowhere near what they are on the day. This makes results way too random and thus races unplayable!

If you can't work out the weather / going 3 days before then just look at the NR rates at each meeting.

25%+ NR rates = Totally Avoid
15%+ NR rates = Avoid
10%+ NR rates = Caution Advised

I am sticking with the all weather at the moment.
Cut/Paste from Flatstats

Lingfield 3:35

THECOFFEEPODDOTCO
Age, Colour, Sex 2 b f (3 Apr 2022) Trainer Richard Hannon Owner Middleham Park Racing CXVIII & Partner1
Pedigree SERGEI PROKOFIEV (CAN) LIMELITE (IRE) DARK ANGEL (IRE)

Market watch

surely if you think that changes in going will play havoc with form then laying the first 2 in the market is the right way to go?

Stop calling me Shirley

Lingfield turf going looks unpredictable and ungenuine (they have always had odd drainage there) and that is currently the course with the highest NR% so I would be wary of Lingfield turf this afternoon.

Epsom.  2:00.    MEGALITHIC

https://www.irishracing.com

Can I suggest that you use the tracker on this site because I can't keep up with the racing.

All of the Sires mentioned on this thread have been researched.

Good Luck

Nottingham.   SHOSTAKOVA     Wide draw each Way

Haddock.   8:03.    Castle Stuart

Beverley 2:05.    AVIATION TIME

Goodwood.   2:45.    MYTHICAL COMPOSER

Educational race above take note

Sands of Mali is fairly unique these days in being a true outcross ie he has zero duplicated ancestors in the first 5 generations of his ancestry. I hope and think this will help him become a outstanding sire of precocious fast 2 year olds

5fs at Ascot Windsor Castle, think that qualifies as a fast precocious 2 yo.

Matauri Bay looks the answer in the Leicester novice.Becketts putting out his best 2 yr olds debutants in the last month, Good low draw and Mum has produced a great Australian sister already.
2:30

NIGHTWALKER    Danger to horse in above race

Stoute horse has to be a Notebook horse

Chepstow 2:45.   SAHARA DANCER

Sahara Dancer's dam Street Jazz has only had three UK runners and all were beaten on their racecourse debuts - two as 2yos and the other as a 3yo.

Sands of Mali is fairly unique these days in being a true outcross ie he has zero duplicated ancestors in the first 5 generations of his ancestry. I hope and think this will help him become a outstanding sire of precocious fast 2 year olds and at the same time **** a snoop at all the droning on line- breeders and bloodstock agents claiming inbreeding to this or that fashionable sire and other nonsense

A Superstar  runs in the Acombe  on Wednesday.
Ronnie.

Ronnie.  This is not an Anti Post thread

Chepstow 2:45.   SAHARA DANCER      Won

Another Sands of Mali in the frame

She grabs the ground quite markedly . If you remember Celtic swing Who was 2nd in the 2000 and won the French Derby in 1995 - v similar. They said Celtic Swing had a conformation fault of offset knees

“Celtic Swing's conformation was flawed: his knees were off-set, which meant they were prone to concussion when he galloped at full pelt." Expectations rose during the months he was given to recover.”
Sahara Dancer

Sands of Mali is fairly unique these days in being a true outcross ie he has zero duplicated ancestors in the first 5 generations of his ancestry. I hope and think this will help him become a outstanding sire of precocious fast 2 year olds and at the same time **** a snoop at all the droning on line- breeders and bloodstock agents claiming inbreeding to this or that fashionable sire and other nonsense

Newbury 2:40.  JEWELRY   Each Way

Good luck, Taffy.

top2rated you must frequent the pediquery site.    Correct?

I do use it occasionally but got there via googling your 'Sands of Mali is fairly unique...' post.

(https://www.pedigreequery.com/)

top2rated.  I think that I must be one of the few posters on the site.

Good Luck

Aug 16, 2024 -- 10:13AM, kingsnake5 wrote:

Newbury 2:40.

Jewelry (IRE) 2, b f 9-2 (Isa Salman Al Khalifa)
(Drawn 6)
Wootton Bassett (GB) - Simply A Star (IRE)(Giant's Causeway (USA))
Breeder - Coolmore
(Morning price: 7/1 15/2 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 14/1 12/1 10/1 9/1 10/1 12/1)
(Ring price: 10/1 11/1 12/1 14/1) SP 14/1