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Really struggling atm with decision making on when to enter the win market with smallish bets that the early lack of liquidity can handle.
If I go early at a price I'm essentially happy with, as sure as eggs, it'll drift in the immediate pre race when the real money materialises.
If I wait and it drifts I can get put off and stay out, missing winners.
If I wait and it shortens from the earlier price that I would have been happy with, I'm kicking myself and sometimes stay out because I've missed the best available
I realise this is probably a recognisable scenario for many but its become a real distraction. Anyone found peace of mind with a simple strategy to remain dispassionate and/or learned to recognise with some reliability when a pre race drift is significant and when its just market dynamics?
If I go early at a price I'm essentially happy with, as sure as eggs, it'll drift in the immediate pre race when the real money materialises.
If I wait and it drifts I can get put off and stay out, missing winners.
If I wait and it shortens from the earlier price that I would have been happy with, I'm kicking myself and sometimes stay out because I've missed the best available
I realise this is probably a recognisable scenario for many but its become a real distraction. Anyone found peace of mind with a simple strategy to remain dispassionate and/or learned to recognise with some reliability when a pre race drift is significant and when its just market dynamics?
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most horses drift from early back prices as the market is at 105-110%. Take a price 10 mins before race time would be my advice. Good luck
Yeah I get that Tiger, but just because a book is marked up at around 110% doesn't mean an individual price available can't be value.
The problem is that awareness of the normal market dynamics isn't really helping with the psychology of consistently mis-timing the bet.
An example last night is pertinent. I picked out Buraback at Wolves as having a really good chance.
There was some 4.1 available to a few quid in the morning, but I assessed that as being too thin and I assumed that better would become available as the market matured. By mid afternoon the price was 6.2. In my mind around 5/1 was a proper bit of value, and even knowing the way these things often go I didn't want to take the risk of others reaching the same conclusion and watching it come back in, so I took the price. Two minutes before the off time it drifted from 6.2 to above 9.1 and I was tearing my hair out. Does that mean it won't win so I need to get out as cheaply as possible and save three quarters of my stake, (which all too often it does), or am I missing out on three points? In this case it was the latter.
Maybe I'm answering my own question here, and it's my perception of value in the first instance that's flawed, but after years of backing early prices with bookmakers, this problem was never as exaggerated as it seems to be on here. Truth is I'm finding the battle for best price a bigger challenge than finding the right bets in the first place.
The problem is that awareness of the normal market dynamics isn't really helping with the psychology of consistently mis-timing the bet.
An example last night is pertinent. I picked out Buraback at Wolves as having a really good chance.
There was some 4.1 available to a few quid in the morning, but I assessed that as being too thin and I assumed that better would become available as the market matured. By mid afternoon the price was 6.2. In my mind around 5/1 was a proper bit of value, and even knowing the way these things often go I didn't want to take the risk of others reaching the same conclusion and watching it come back in, so I took the price. Two minutes before the off time it drifted from 6.2 to above 9.1 and I was tearing my hair out. Does that mean it won't win so I need to get out as cheaply as possible and save three quarters of my stake, (which all too often it does), or am I missing out on three points? In this case it was the latter.
Maybe I'm answering my own question here, and it's my perception of value in the first instance that's flawed, but after years of backing early prices with bookmakers, this problem was never as exaggerated as it seems to be on here. Truth is I'm finding the battle for best price a bigger challenge than finding the right bets in the first place.
Betting so many hours before the off is just a hangover from the past and these days earlier than ten minutes makes no sense as the market has not been formed properly. Yes you might pinch a point or two here and there but mostly you will lose out. I can remember some 50 years ago or more when bookmakers first introduced these early markets to give themselves an advantage of an early warning system and it has worked well for them.
"hagover from the past" - I reckon that just about sums it up perfectly. Hard habit to break, but so true.
You will beat some of the odds, some of the time, but you wont beat all of the odds, all of the time.
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