Doncaster - 1m (Str) Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+)

Aye the Irish Horse.

Yeah, solid chance. Won with a bit up his sleeve on Monday. This does a stronger Lincoln than the Irish version though.

Has to be a chance of a back to back winner don;t you think?  C and D, going not a neg,. middle draw a sure plus and a handy 3 lbs claim from an app. with a winner recently.  Johnny Murtagh looks to have an improver too.

*Look

I've profiled a few horses LH and I've covered your one. But like you say, the going is perfect for him so I couldn't rule him out completely.

In race card order.

1. Migration - Won this race last season in very similar, if not identical conditions. But he wasn't in much form afterwards and was restricted to just 3 more races. He's an 8yo now & Hunters of Brora(1996) is the only 8yo to win the race since 1965 and there hasn't been a back to back winner of the race in the same period. Races off a 4lb higher mark and the tongue tie goes on for the first time. Conclusion - Will relish conditions but looks too high in the handicap now and the stats are all against him.

2. Johan - Was a very comfortable winner of this race in 2022 off a 4lb lower mark.  Had just 2 runs last season and won the Golden Mile Handicap at Glorious Goodwood on his seasonal debut on soft going and then the shorter trip and quicker going was probably against him behind a solid G3 class animal at Redcar on his only other run. Conclusion - 7yo's have a poor record in the race with just 2 winners since 1965 one of which is the fella above. But I like the Jockey booking and the ability to run fresh isn't in doubt. This could well be the horse's main target of the season. So I expect connections to have him absolutely spot for the race. Sold chance, fair price.

3. Non Runner

4. Liberty Lane - Off the back of winning so well on his only start at 2. He went off a strong favourite for a Novice race at Newmarket on his 3yo seasonal debut but found one too good in Waipiro (that one is now rated 110). He was then thrown into the deep end by running in the Dante. He ran no better than OK and to be honest he looked just Handicap class at the time and his subsequent runs, which included scrapping home from Sonny Liston (OR105) hasn't changed my opinion of him. Conclusion - Lightly raced 4yo's have a decent record in the race but he's plenty short enough in the betting and he'll have to improve to win this. He's been gelded and being lightly raced, he can of course find the necessary improvement. But at the current prices, I'll let him win without my money being on.


Anyway else want to profile a few of the other runners in the race?

5. Thunderball - Likable, improving handicapper last season. It would come as no surprise if were to carry on this improvement into his 4yo campaign. Especially as I believe soft going and the Mile trip is his optimum conditions. His form ties in with The Gatekeeper from their race at Goodwood(Disqualified and placed 2nd) There some real substance to the form of that race with Ouzo back in 3rd racking up 3 wins on the spin (2 in Meydan over the Winter) and The Gatekeeper going on to win the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot.
Conclusion - I see that the 20/1 has been snaffled up and that did look a very fair price. But at the current double figure price he still makes my short list.

6. The Gatekeeper - His form ties in very closely with that of Thunderball and he'll also appreciate the prevailing soft conditions. Conclusion - A string of good efforts in big Handicaps last season he can throw in the odd poor run, which he did over C&D behind the winner Liberty Lane. For this reason, I prefer the chances of Thunderball over his.

Hunters of Brora(1998*)

My tip is watch the early races to see which side of the course is favoured by the result or the jockeys. Then choose something each way drawn on that side at around 14/1 in betting . Thats my standard system for the Lincoln . Over the years its done ok. Although I have to say its often the far side thas the favoured one ( low draw )

Will likely be Vetifer ( low draw ) or alpha Crucis ( high).

Sky have 7 places. Odds probably less though.

7. Vetiver - She looks on a decent mark and being so lightly raced there should be more improvement to come this season. But Fillies have a very poor record in this race. Conclusion - I think she could have a good season and she looks handicapped to run well here. But the stats are very much against her. For this reason alone, I'll have to pass on her in this one.

8. Revich - Out of his depth and no reason he should be winning it this time on his 4th attempt at the race. Conclusion - This look a starting point for him for the season and 8yo stat is against him too.

9. Blues Emperor & 10 Chazzesmee - These 2 Irish raiders look closely matched but I much prefer the chances of the latter. He won the Irish Lincoln with plenty in hand and if this race doesn't come to soon, he really should be taking a hand in the finish. Trip, track and going should be ideal for the both of them. Conclusion - The Irish Handicapper looked to have Blues Emperor right where he wanted him after he beat Chazzesmee at the Curragh in mid Summer. He's pretty lightly raced for a 5yo and there might a bit more improvement in him?  But I expect the latter to turn the tables on him here.

11. Navagio - Showed a fair level of form in Ireland last season but it isn't easy to get a handle on him Handicap wise. Conclusion - He looks the type to pay his way in Handicaps in the UK this season, probably at bit of a lower level though. Maybe this is just starting point to the new season for him?

12 Lattam - I thought he won last seasons Irish Lincoln with a bit in hand even though he only won by sh! Although he could only add one other win (an AW handicap at Newcastle) he ran ok in his other races last season and was probably bit unlucky not finish closer to Johan in the Golden Mile. I think he's on a fair mark and its one that I believe he can win off for his new shrewd connections. Conclusion - This straight mile and very soft conditions could be absolutely spot on for him and he makes my short list.

Some of the outsiders look interesting but my pin has come down on Thunderball along with savers on Lattem (2nd choice) & Johan.

Good luck however you play lads.

Good idea Brians Good luck!

was gonna do a write up on this but youve saved me the job whippin good write up by the way ,you have summed it up pretty well with the main contenders obviously plenty with chances but despite the stats being against her i am pretty sweet on vetiver ,lightly raced just the 8 runs and room for plenty of improvement she has big handicap exp and a decent run in a group 3 ,she finished just ahead of cachet in 4th that day and that one was rated 110 and she goes off a mark of 98 in this which could prove lenient , won 1st time up last season and yard can ready one ground should be fine drawn in the middle so could  go stands side or far side  and 16/1 appeals ew  6 places good luck.

I backed JOHAN earlier in the week

Nagging doubt that he just might be a couple of lengths as in 5lb too high in the weights but he does look a solid option, C&D winner, ok on the going, goes well first time out

All the best

Dont forget to do your "Spring Double"

pricewise,SP LIFE VALUE PLUS,both put spirit genie up at 40,s last night ew 7 places,i,m in/on and a few £ ew on johan

Cheers Foyles. Yeah, I like her chances too. I don't really like using stats to rule a Horse out of any particular race. Because if you investigate them further, say for this example there might have only been a handful of Fillies who had a legitimate chance of winning the Lincoln. I hope she runs well for you Foyles. The more I look at the race the more I like the chances of Johan. Had a saver on but might go back in again. GL lads

good luck whippin

Watching the 1m h'cap you would think middle to high draws would have advantage as they all came3 over to near side, yet low drawn horses took 4 of 1st 7 places, would Helter Skelter have finished a lot closer if not veering across to far rail?
   Thought the Irish fav looked to have a great chance again today as was drawn wrong side last Monday at the curragh, price is stingy but still think can follow up.

Couldn't have the winner at any price! Lattam bit unlucky again but you have to expect it with his run style

Only £77k to the winner. A bit undervalued for a competitive handicap, I believe.

4 big prices in the money. £77k seems a lot to me compared to the Doncaster Mile and Cammidge Trophy. The runners in the Lincoln would be lapped by Charyn if it was a 400 metre track

spirit genie hits places at 40,s ,100 to one on thursday