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and 9 length winner on the bridle ....running in the 1st at southwell tonight ..............any thoughts ?
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Should win tonight but as far as Guineas is concerned can't have it on pedigree re the trip. Yes won over 7f easy enough but 1m at HQ far from certain. It's hardly a surprise choice but to my mind all the beats City of Troy if he turns up is the ground (too soft).
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was most impressive, hosed up but the other one has stronger solid form in the book and the horse he beat by 2l when both made their debuts at newbury boiling point was btn a nse in a £34 k race at newmarket .
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yes joe i looked through his pedigree and id be very concerned about him getting the guineas mile , i like cogitate in this but taking on a 3s on shot is chancy but fook it ya gotta go with yer opinion .good luck.
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ive laid the fav ,just think the cogitate form is the more solid if i am wrong it wont cost a lot at 1.35
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If he's a G1 horse it will be at 6f imo.
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ROFL Komrade Howard, and Putin will resign!!
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I thought it odd that a horse with so much potential after his first run should follow up in a Class 5 at Southwell which I also posted on the pre-race thread.
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Burke gets them super fit at home and often they don't improve. But saying that I think he will get more than 6f looks like a Jersey type to me.
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..... The race was over 7 Furlongs.
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I was responding to Howard Glasgow.
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8/1 a dreadful price imv…..but the trainer got the value @ 40/1
Personally I don’t think it will win the 2000 bit of normal Pre season hype….. |
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"Burke gets them super fit at home and often they don't improve. But saying that I think he will get more than 6f looks like a Jersey type to me"
Jersey a G3 Honcho. I said 6f is imo his best chance of winning or going close in a G1 |
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ok, no probs, no reason to think the horse wont get a mile on yesterdays showing.
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on breeding there is a doubt.
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I don't disagree with you Howard. I just don't think he is G1 and I think the Jersey stakes looks a good target for him. As Glasgow says he would probably get a mile but not in a decent group race imo.
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Of course he could win over a mile Glasgow and that's the trip they would like him to win a G1. You can be as good as Kingman and not win a guineas if it's not your optimum trip. Think this one's optimum is shorter rather than more than 7f. Based on pedigree and watching the horse. Of course I could be wrong and sometimes it's a soft guineas but doesn't look that way at the moment.
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Shock news that Karl Burke has been battling the Big C, finished his chemo in December.
https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/1770501254285844664 Matt Chapman asked him about turf for the horse and Burke admitted he the colt hadn't trained on grass for ten months, but they're going to find a 7f race for him before a possible tilt at the 2000G, for which the trainer is on at 40-1. https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/1770510391035998656 |
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Thirsk is probably the next target….
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I would be heading for the Craven if I was the owner…..
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ace, made me look to see what happened to the horse Burke won the Craven with last season...Indestructible, unplaced in a claimer at Gulfstream on its latest start. Tbf the horse did record 4 100+ RPRs within its next 5 starts.
If you think you've got a serious contender for the Guineas, imo I wouldn't want to risk leaving the race behind in the Craven, particularly if the ground was soft or worse. |
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Yes if the ground was ok George but the horse has (imo) done two racecourse gallops ….
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Well if you are going to get a 7f race in before the Guineas you don't have many other choices than the conditions race on the first day of the Craven meeting and you get the advantage of a look at the track. I think that's where he'll be.
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Put him in the Craven let’s see what he really is capable of…..doubtful he will scare AOB
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Night Raider is a half-brother to Far Above, who I don't think we got to see the best of, but he was clearly very useful and seemed ground versatile, so that would offer hope for the turf with Nigh Raider.
It appears Far Above is now at stud, having not raced again having finished lame after winning the Palace House at Newmarket in 2020. |
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Well that pretty much tells you its very unlikely NR will get a mile. A half brother by a middle distance stallion being a sprinter would make you think that as he is by a sprinting stallion he won't stay (in that class). The second dam never got a mile (7f filly) and the best of her siblings were sprinters (and not very good ones).
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His other half-brother, Dubai Dawn (by Dawn Approach) won his first two starts at Wolverhampton over 6f, and then disappointed in two further starts which included one try on turf.
Maybe the Commonwealth Cup might be a better target. |
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Maybe, but that a G1 so you have to be pretty bullish about AW novice form to aim him there.
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Well, some people refer to Ascot as the 'green Polytrack' with its sand base on the straight course, at least he'll have his 'synthetic surface' to race on
 A RPR of 104 for his win last night. |
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2 runs on the flat AW then the undulating Newmarket wow! What happens if the horse doesn’t act…..?
Must go to the Craven….. |
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Take the second out of last night's race and the winner beat a real load of tosh.
Visually Night Raider has looked brilliant BUT taking the way a horse has looked when winning has been the way to the poor house since the beginning of racing! Speed figures and collateral ratings will tell the truth. Trainer on at 40/1 and now it's 8/1. I'd be hedging if I were him... |
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bottom line is I agree but why take the 93 rated 2nd out the race ? "Speed figures and collateral ratings will tell the truth". Of course they will but by then it's often too late. Wide margin winners I would agree often dangerous
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Take the two wins on the AW with a tipper load of salt…..
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No need to take him out. He clearly didn't run to 93 (which he got from being 5th of 6) after 200+ days off. RPR 104 is very optimistic and even at that rating he is 30lb behind the favorite and a dozen pounds behind several others high up in the betting that got their ratings as juveniles and should under any normal circumstances, have more improvement to come than him.
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Looks a speedy type to me. So you'd have real reservations about him over the stiff final furlong at Newmarket. He does look a very talented animal though and as some of you lads have mentioned, the Jersey Stakes looks the ideal race for him .
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the 2nd bt boiling point on debut by 2l ,boiling point was subsequntly btn a nose in a group 3 so form is strong taking it literally but dont think he will get gns trip and may end up in commonwealth cup imo.
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for which he is 16/1 b365^^^^
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Beaten by Alyanaabi who went on to finished in a respectful 2nd place behind COT on his final start. All aboard Night Raider for the Commonwealth Cup?
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Until it loses the dream is still alive. Time will tell but definitely a lot of if buts and maybes.
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