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Matt Williams is a professional punter specialising mainly in in-running betting. Here he identifies some of the horses, trainers and jockeys he will be following most closely through the week.
To get the best out of betting on the exchanges, you really want to take advantage of the variety the experience offers, by backing and laying, and using the in-running markets to press home your pre-race thoughts or to bail out of a negative position.
Or you can simply play a race as you see it developing, as it's a fun way to bet and big rewards can be found for small risk. That, in a nutshell, is the scenario behind every successful exchange punter.
Now let's talk tactics, up the pace a bit and get into the horses, opinions and betting.
And just one snippet :-
Lay in running
Lossiemouth should be running in the Champion Hurdle. I would have backed her to beat State Man getting the weight. She is short enough for the Mares’ Hurdle but could get a whole lot shorter in running – I doubt she'll be coming off the bridle before the home turn.
There is no point waiting for Paul Townend to get busy as the first sign of that and punters will be instantly pressing the lay button. Take a chance while she's still on the bridle, because on pedigree she is no certainty to want this trip and you can go back a generation or two for evidence of that.
To get the best out of betting on the exchanges, you really want to take advantage of the variety the experience offers, by backing and laying, and using the in-running markets to press home your pre-race thoughts or to bail out of a negative position.
Or you can simply play a race as you see it developing, as it's a fun way to bet and big rewards can be found for small risk. That, in a nutshell, is the scenario behind every successful exchange punter.
Now let's talk tactics, up the pace a bit and get into the horses, opinions and betting.
And just one snippet :-
Lay in running
Lossiemouth should be running in the Champion Hurdle. I would have backed her to beat State Man getting the weight. She is short enough for the Mares’ Hurdle but could get a whole lot shorter in running – I doubt she'll be coming off the bridle before the home turn.
There is no point waiting for Paul Townend to get busy as the first sign of that and punters will be instantly pressing the lay button. Take a chance while she's still on the bridle, because on pedigree she is no certainty to want this trip and you can go back a generation or two for evidence of that.
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Cheers Matt
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He talked about the above scenario on Paddy's cheltenham preview [youtube] - is where I saw him.
He's on that show morning every day of the festival if you want to catch him. Believe he made Stay Away fay [Brown advisory] his nap of the meeting. |
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She is short enough for the Mares’ Hurdle but could get a whole lot shorter in running
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Trading trainers
Nicky Henderson has been so unlucky with Constitution Hill, and there's no doubt his horses could be in better form coming into the festival. He looks to hold a strong hand on the Friday, though, and if he is enduring a quiet week to that point punters can expect to get some value about the likes of Sir Gino, Shishkin and Shanagh Bob. Don't rule out a strong finish from the master of Seven Barrows, and you might be rewarded with inflated odds for keeping the faith. Trading jockeys You can't knock the fact Patrick Mullins has made the most out of his ability and his tactics in races get me thinking and adjusting much more than most of the professionals. Over the past year or so, we've seen numerous examples of him steering a wide course in Irish bumpers and lately some of his mounts have benefited from rope-a-dope tactics. He appears to be in trouble one minute, the in-running market spikes against him, then he takes off and wins by half the track. Watch Magic McColgan at Leopardstown for a recent example. Mullins has enough ammunition this week to warrant close attention for betting purposes. Harry Cobden is arguably the best in the business; if you see him sitting quietly and not panicking from what looks too far back, it usually means he will be involved in the finish, while he is also frighteningly good on a front-runner and can play his colleagues like a fiddle. His book of rides is a shameful reflection on where we are with jump racing in Britain as he's going to struggle to get his leg across a favourite, but that doesn't mean he won't ride winners. I expect and hope he does. Trading horses Back-to-lay The Goffer travelled beautifully in the Ultima a year ago, hitting the front two out under Davy Russell (he'll tell you himself it was an error of judgement). A year older and with the experience tucked away, he’ll trade short in running with a more patient ride, but I still don't trust him fully to see it out up the hill. By all means, fancy him for your life – I like his chances – but please leave a lay in the machine at much shorter odds, just in case. Ose Partir (Boodles) is a Hail Mary shout on form, but he hasn't gone unbacked of late and I fancy him to use his Flat speed to travel as well as anything into this race. The tricky bit is what he will find off the bridle and I don't have the definitive answer. Edwardstone clears the water jump in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury on Saturday Edwardstone: may well trade short in running in the Champion Chase Credit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos) Edwardstone blew me away with his zest for jumping in the Game Spirit at Newbury last month – he was brilliant and visually put up one of the best performances of the season. Make no mistake, he can put it up to El Fabiolo and Jonbon in the Champion Chase, and I can see him trading half his pre-race odds from a relatively early stage. Just don't be left holding the bambino if El Fabiolo or Jonbon are on his tail turning for home. I like the chances of Crambo in the Stayers' Hurdle. The race's history is littered with doughty types, succeeding where flashier hurdlers have failed, and Crambo fits the bill on that score. He's no Big Buck's but he has youth on his side and he keeps plugging away for pressure. As long as he's not going backwards for that pressure, he will stay in the fight. Back in running Shanagh Bob is a good example of a horse who could trade at big odds and win. He’s one of those horses it kills you to take the pre-race 10-1 about in the Albert Bartlett, because his lazy(ish) approach lends itself to bigger prices in the race. Connections will no doubt be pinning their hopes on him being close enough turning for home, and if he gets into the battle on the run-in you'd want him on your side. Corach Rambler turns up on the big days, and I expect him to run his best race of the season in the Gold Cup. Of course, he has a lot to find on form, but we know he loves the track, he stays and the word is he's in great form at home. If he got to within a length or two of Galopin Des Champs and Fastorslow at the last, or whoever really, how would you price him up? You wouldn't be a disbeliever if he was favourite. Lay Fact To File has loads of class, but class and stamina is a rare combination and until I see him stay a strongly run three miles I would question his stamina for the job. He could be an in-running lay, but one mistake at the fences for a novice and the juice is gone from his pre-race skinny odds. I think layers have enough running for them to justify the outright lay. I was at the Dublin Racing Festival to watch Galopin Des Champs win the Irish Gold Cup and he was impressive, I'll give him that. However, he probably had a hard race in beating Fastorslow, and the same goes for his run in the Savills, which he won by 23 lengths. You don't win in elite company by that far without a certain amount of stress to the system, and that is why I'm laying him for the Gold Cup – I think others will be fresher and better prepared if things get attritional. He is the best chaser around, but he's already shown himself to be vulnerable on occasions and the Gold Cup is deeper than the betting suggests. |
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I would rather walk across Syria in a Cross Of St George suit than listen to him
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witch direction?
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Add to that I would be holding up a photo of Donald Trump |
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In my view if Corach Rambler is upsides or close to being at the last he's beat. He doesn;t have the gearage to lay up/stay up with either of these two so if he is there he will likely have used up all his gas.
I remember quite a few times the stable told us that Ahoy Senor was going great guns at home. It didn;t mean a lot then and probably doesn't now. He;s undoubtedly a very good horse but coming from behind Galopin going up that hill would be some feat. |
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Make sure you have a bottle of whisky in your pocket to go with the flag of saint george Tom.
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I only drink Champagne
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He used to be on the racing channels quite often, and then disappeared. Never gave the impression he was any better than the rest.
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The Goffer travelled beautifully in the Ultima a year ago, hitting the front two out under Davy Russell (he'll tell you himself it was an error of judgement). A year older and with the experience tucked away, he’ll trade short in running with a more patient ride, but I still don't trust him fully to see it out up the hill.
By all means, fancy him for your life – I like his chances – but please leave a lay in the machine at much shorter odds, just in case. Never mind the folly of giving away money by leaving up an in-running bet to be picked off by the sharks actually watching the race; what odds are 'much shorter odds' anyway? 5.0? 2.0? 1.01? This isn't a pro speaking: it's a gobby online fantasist. |
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Annie Power backers would have wished that they left a short lay in-running before she fell at the last.
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Deptford 11 Mar 24 21:00
I would rather walk across Syria in a Cross Of St George suit than listen to him Lol |
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had the scouse gob for the Z list celeb pro punter types back in the day on atr/ruk etc,always called horse,s
this lad this fella etc,etc ,quite liked him on the tv |
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Cheers Matt
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While you're doing that walk Mr Deptford, make sure you carry a pig on your back & chant "Shalom" at the top of your voice!
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Is he still sat in Matthew Imi's waiting room?
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He reckoned Honeysuckle & Love Envoi would have finished in front of State Man in last year Champion.
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100% load of p
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he was prob laughing as the followers lobbed up their lays and he was mopping it up via his drone pics
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lays? never come of the snaff..
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Lay
Fact To File has loads of class, but class and stamina is a rare combination and until I see him stay a strongly run three miles I would question his stamina for the job. He could be an in-running lay, but one mistake at the fences for a novice and the juice is gone from his pre-race skinny odds. I think layers have enough running for them to justify the outright lay. Cheers Matt again |