Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
22 Feb 24
13:49
Joined:
Date Joined:
22 Apr 04
I was looking at a horse two days ago at Newcastle i quite fancied at a price Prince Achille eventually ran 6th. I was encouraged by the trainer O'Keefes stats at this time of year, Jan-March where he's had a SR of 19/87, with 6 2nds, 14 3rds and 5 4ths as well. Usually has a quiet Nov/Dec before horses hit form from January-March.
He has one runner today in the 7.00 Dream Together who hasn't ran since last of 12 over C/D in September, had ran much better on previous visit here when 2nd btn 3/4 length from 56, runs off 54 today. Overall profile is of a horse that is better on GF ground on turf winning from 69,70 and 73 but last win nearly 2 years ago. Surprised to see a fair bit of support this morning from overnight 20/1 into 7/1. Results after a break read 1
He has one runner today in the 7.00 Dream Together who hasn't ran since last of 12 over C/D in September, had ran much better on previous visit here when 2nd btn 3/4 length from 56, runs off 54 today. Overall profile is of a horse that is better on GF ground on turf winning from 69,70 and 73 but last win nearly 2 years ago. Surprised to see a fair bit of support this morning from overnight 20/1 into 7/1. Results after a break read 1
Show More
Sorry pressed wrong thing,
Form figures after a long break reads 3145 runs off lowest ever mark today. My head says AW form is not good enough but stats for trainer are very good, 7/1 too short imo but i wouldn't have minded a bit EW last night at 20/1.
Any thoughts about when stats and support may lead you to overcome doubts about form?
Form figures after a long break reads 3145 runs off lowest ever mark today. My head says AW form is not good enough but stats for trainer are very good, 7/1 too short imo but i wouldn't have minded a bit EW last night at 20/1.
Any thoughts about when stats and support may lead you to overcome doubts about form?
No notice at all of stats but there are a few very rare occasions when they tell a story , example being say a 2yo taking on older horses with all the complexities of weight for age debates , so if a 2yo has only won maybe once in the last 20 examples then the stats probably tell you something.
That said though the price will be factored into the market anyway as every Tom , Dick and Harry will be aware.
So generally they're of no interest to me whatsoever stew
That said though the price will be factored into the market anyway as every Tom , Dick and Harry will be aware.
So generally they're of no interest to me whatsoever stew
Really, trainer form, jockey form, course form, distance, 3 yos running against older horses in h'caps early season etc, no interest to you hayden?
Not at all , when in a slump a purple patch awaits and when in a purple patch a slump awaits as nobody keeps it up forever , when that change occurs nobody not even connections know.
I also trust the exchange market the vast majority of times stew so fully expect something that every man and his dog knows to be factored in , so value doesn't exist only in the individual punters head which of course makes it a personal opinion as opposed to the often to be confused term of value.
Good luck tonight mate
I also trust the exchange market the vast majority of times stew so fully expect something that every man and his dog knows to be factored in , so value doesn't exist only in the individual punters head which of course makes it a personal opinion as opposed to the often to be confused term of value.
Good luck tonight mate
Thanks for your replies Hayden, at one time we'd have had lots of people giving their views, but not much interest these days.
Don't entirely agree with you about value but that's another subject.
Don't entirely agree with you about value but that's another subject.
There are statistics and statistics. When a statistic is explicable by logic it has some use. In Haydens example of 2yo's, the logic being evidence of a weight scale failing to adequately account for maturity. Where a statistic relates to (as examples) favourite's record in a particular race, or the age and weight carried by past winners, its worth keeping in mind that today's result will be tomorrow's statistics and you can't use tomorrow's stats to back winners today.
Agree with steerforth.
Always held the view about value just being a posh word for personal opinion though stew , one mans value is another mans lay which is how the exchange exists , can make a case for general value if mathematically proven but otherwise it's all in the individuals head.
My fav stats definition has always been that stats don't give answers they just provoke more questions.
Always held the view about value just being a posh word for personal opinion though stew , one mans value is another mans lay which is how the exchange exists , can make a case for general value if mathematically proven but otherwise it's all in the individuals head.
My fav stats definition has always been that stats don't give answers they just provoke more questions.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539