Betfair hurdle

Let's go through the field in betting order

Ocastle des Mottes - Will relish conditions and looks to be on a "workable" mark! Stable couldn't be in better form but too short in the betting for me.

Iberico Lord - Given an eyecatching ride on his final start at Sandown last season he came out in the Greatwood Hurdle and looked well ahead of the handicapper beating the re-opposing Lookaway. Going might have been too quick for him at Ascot LTO and it also looked like the Winner was the stables Christmas money horse! I'm happy to put a line through that run.

Altobelli - Ran well behind Luccia in the same race as IL. But this guy races freely and can be a bit keen. Will he get away with racing like that on such testing going?

Spirit D'Aunou - Improving sort and who will enjoy conditions. Bolted up at Sandown LTO but you can pick holes in the form of that race. Trainer has a great record in this race and even though he has to improve again to win this, you couldn't rule this out.

Lookaway - Tough and dependable. You know what you'll get from this guy as he get out in front and jump away. Looks a touch too high in the handicap but he hasn't had that much racing for his age and there could be a bit more improvement to come. Conditions fine and is 12 at the course.

Brentford Hope - Nice sort on the level for Richard Hughes and I think he held him in a very high regard. He probably didn't fulfill his full potential on the Flat but switched to hurdles for an up and coming yard he's took to the game well. Track & going should be fine but just a worry he's come up short in better races (very much like on the Flat) thus far over jumps

Onlyamatteroftime - Talented but quite clearly very quirky. If he was to put it all together? Then he could make a mockery of his current mark. Conditions are an unknown too so you'll have to take a leap of faith on this front too.

Aurigny Mill - Improving with racing and the going should be fine. The big worry for me is that he's only ever raced on Right Handed courses. He must have a preference for this but it will be interesting to see how he fairs going this way.

Luccia - She looks on very stiff mark and the going might not be ideal. I think the race LTO was her main target.

The rest of the field are hard to fancy but Knickerboxerglory and Donnacha have a few things going for them and look the best outsiders to me.

As it stand I'll be backing the 1-2 from the Greatwood Hurdle. 


Any thoughts or fancies?

leau du sud looks interesting has won on heavy in france and dropped a few pound since last season ,pulled up in the greatwood but hopefully this is the target .normally being pulled up is a negative but the yards faivor was pulled up prior to winning the county hurdle harry skelt rides and only had 8 runs in total .

Small stakes in this for me
And nothing original either
The Mullins French horse could bolt up given the ratings difference and ground suitability
And an each way saver on Spirit D'aunou... Just because I like the trainer in this sort of race and I think this jockey is great

My £2 auntie post on Donnacha @75 is looking pretty shrewd atm.......

Hendo moaning about oor willie's hoss getting a slug of weight due to some fashion of an anomaly.


I see he left Luccia in under 12st on ground it may not favour but has t'other one in which you'd think was more fancied.

anyone shocked if mullins' other hoss at the bottom of the weights wins it?

Devon Trainer Victor Dartnall very very keen on Aurigny Mill.

Date	Horse	Trainer	Course	Placing	Runners	SP
1997-03-12	FLORIDA PEARL  IRE	W P Mullins	CHELTENHAM	1	25	7
1997-03-12	MYSTICAL CITY  IRE	W P Mullins	CHELTENHAM	9	28	26
2007-04-12	ALPHAZAR  IRE	W P Mullins	AINTREE	19	27	67
2013-03-13	KALMANN  FR	W P Mullins	CHELTENHAM	13	24	15
2014-08-23	URADEL  GER	W P Mullins	YORK	5	17	6.5
2015-03-07	BABYLONE DES MOTTE  FR	W P Mullins	SANDOWN	1	16	5.5
2016-02-13	BLEU BERRY  FR	W P Mullins	NEWBURY	7	7	4
2018-03-15	SALSARETTA  FR	W P Mullins	CHELTENHAM	F	14	19
2018-06-19	CHELKAR  FR	W P Mullins	ASCOT	4	19	6
2019-03-13	CIEL DE NEIGE  FR	W P Mullins	CHELTENHAM	3	21	9.5
2019-03-14	CONCERTISTA  FR	W P Mullins	CHELTENHAM	2	22	67
2020-01-16	PANIC ATTACK  IRE	W P Mullins	MARKET RASEN	1	9	3.5
2020-03-10	BERKSHIRE ROYAL  GB	W P Mullins	CHELTENHAM	12	15	101
2020-03-11	CANARDIER  FR	W P Mullins	CHELTENHAM	F	25	7.5
2021-03-16	JAMES DU BERLAIS  FR	W P Mullins	CHELTENHAM	9	10	15
2021-03-17	SIR GERHARD  IRE	W P Mullins	CHELTENHAM	1	14	3.12
2021-03-19	HAUT EN COULEURS  FR	W P Mullins	CHELTENHAM	3	8	21
2022-03-15	GAELIC WARRIOR  GER	W P Mullins	CHELTENHAM	2	21	2.62
2022-03-16	HOULANBATORDECHAIS  FR	W P Mullins	CHELTENHAM	15	20	15
2022-10-08	SCARAMANGA  IRE	W P Mullins	NEWMARKET	8	21	8
2023-03-17	JE GARDE  FR	W P Mullins	CHELTENHAM	12	15	81
2023-04-07	MR ESCOBAR  IRE	W P Mullins	LINGFIELD AW	9	14	2.75
2023-04-13	JOLIE COEUR ALLEN  FR	W P Mullins	AINTREE	5	20	4
2023-10-28	CATCH YOURSELF ON  USA	W P Mullins	CHELTENHAM	9	15	3
2023-11-19	ONLYAMATTEROFTIME  IRE	W P Mullins	CHELTENHAM	RO	15	4.5
2023-11-25	FINE MARGIN  IRE	W P Mullins	HAYDOCK	2	15	23

Record of horse having first run for Willie Mullins in UK.  4 wins from 26 (15%) doesn't seem bad at all for an ordinary trainer...but Willie has a 28% strike rate over jumps in Ireland over the last 5 years, which suggests that the ones he does send over (on debut for him) are on a fact finding mission.  The form of Ocastle Des Mottes doesn't look strong enough to justify his handicap rating.  The most recent run (and win) was in June in shocking conditions: torrential rain and the commentator said that a gale had got up half way through the race.  Most horses had had enough by the time they turned for home.  But this was summer jumping and everything behind him, who ran again, was beaten on their next run.  Ocastle is a place lay for me.

(SPs included stake.)

I like the research, but the drawings are batty. A lot of them were at the festival. The market will be a better guide than any stats. And with this yard, prior form can be taken with a pinch of salt.

why isn't Paul Townend coming over to ride Ocastle De Mottes, going to Naas for two rides who are not stars rather than come across for the richest Handicap Hurdle of the season.

Jacob the retained jockey for the double green Monir Souede silks; but even then it's not cut and dry eg PT always rides El Fabiolo, maybe since he's always ridden the horse. I guess it's on a horse by horse basis.

This race is a minefield but the fav is defo way too short and I am a layer also.

I think a horse that represents  value is Faivoir last years County Hurdle winner at 66/1 with 7 places on offer at SlyB.

CD winner and jockey takes 7lb of its back.

I like the look of Knickerbocker Glory, i backed him ew at 33/1 yesterday and had a small bet at 32 on here.
Have a look at his runs when fresh. last time the race may have come too quickly for him.

Townend has first dibs on the Mullins double green. But he doesn't seem particularly interested in handicaps. Effectively gave up the sit on two favs in big handicaps pots last weekend, including one for these owners. Whether you could take from that they don't quite think it's another State man, possibly.

P Townend has first choice on all the W Mullins trained horses including those in double green colours. Willie says it's Paul's choice to go to Naas.

Races of this nature tend to go to one that the handicapper has not had chance to properly assess yet. So obviously ODM is in that bracket. As do those who ran in the Greatwood, and the other Mullins runner should not be written off, although obviously comes with a wealth warning.

What gives me a slight doubt is Jacob was going to Warwick to ride in the Kingmaker before it was called off, just thinkig that if he runs down the field here he will still keep his mark for one of the festival h'caps, maybe Coral cup.

It is not sure to get in at Cheltenham off 133. He needs to be 135 +

donnac and iberico for me and a few quikd on knickerbocker all ew
even after decs knicker was 40,s 7 places with slybet on thurs ev woke up fri morning was down as low as 10,s,was expecting value bet.pricewise to put it up but no sign of it been put up anywhere ,back out to 20.s+ now,hope to get 25,s+ before off 7 places

Iberico Lord W&P for me - but hard to pick.  Kamsinas looks a huge price on the pick of his form?

Iberico Lord and Spirit DAunou come out best on my speed figures for dist/going.

Some interesting views. Good luck with all your bets today lads.

My antepost selection has done a last-minute runner; a bookie's friend. Little choice but rowing-in with Mr Mullins' underweight horse Ocastle Des Mottes.

I thought Go Dante would run well.

He’s had a lot a time off but stepped up on his comeback 6th in the Greatwood with a gutsy win lto and the stable are on fire with the last ten finishing 1 4 1 2 1 1 2 1 1.

He’s got a fighting chance at the weights.

The fav looks a bit burly. A Michelin sort of a horse. Let's hope he's straighter than he looks.

Want the fav well stuffed for Placepot purposes.

Looking at it again, I just can't see beyond the Greatwood 1-2...

Getting reshod
Excuses in early

This is taking too dam long…kick this favourite and rub the fkin race already

Ffs man

How much longer? There should be rules on holding up races ffs

Forget the fav lol....Getting stroppy.

That's some hoss the winner.

Okay 3rd for Go Dante…that’s okay for an eachway and the form stacks up vs Iberico so I can’t complain.

What a perfect ride by Nico, absolutely excellent to watch him stalking and pounce late on.

Mullins can't win them all.

But seriously we need a rule on kicking out horses who hold races up.

Cmon 5 minutes max or you’re out.

13/2 winner,knicker bplaced at 25,s ,we,ll take that

l,eau su
faviour
knicker
all in 1st 6
skelton red hot in these 2 mile handicaps ,timeand time again

2nd cant complain sum nice bfsp places and ew bets landed plus the in running lays .

Keeps his mark for cheltenham, improve for the run.

Greatwood form it was.

Walsh on ITV when told the fav was holding up proceeding and not fair to the others his response was "suck it up", it does not happen very often. Loyalty to the last!

To be fair how do we know it wasn't the farrier being slow?

He also shouted up the winner.

Put you all on the winner and off the Fry beast.....which went off at 5/1

Not a single well done for my work? Went out of my way too......never again! lol

Put a line through the run of Aurigny Mill  and back him to get back in the grove next time out on Right Handed course

Went with the Greatwood form myself as well Whippin, but well done Lookaway was very disappointing though, had more on him than the winner.