Andrew's 2024 Lay Thread

Well said Stewarts, some smartarses about.

asked a honest question

Good morning all, I hope I have found another winner in the 1.07 Newmarket The Caribbean. Currently 16/1 but has been 20/1 earlier. First the horse is dropped back to 6F for the first time since leaving AOB and the trainer is is hot form 4/7 and even the jockey is 4/16 and 2/3 last couple of days. Be nice if it drifted back out to 20+ later and I would not take less than 16/1.

No good at all, thought the ground looked much slower than I thought it was but very poor effort in any circumstance. Going to try and recover stake on stable mate in 4.00 - Tanmawwy.

My fault posting this a tad late but message from Andrew

Lucky Luciano posting on my behalf of Andrew in Sweden.

Good morning Guys,

A decent afternoon of racing for a Sunday, including a graded race at Naas featuring the return of Marine Nationale, a G1 in Germany with 4 English based hopefuls, a few listed races in France and a couple of group races in Italy where Archie Watson and Andrew Balding have a runner.

I'm off to the course at Riem, München later, primarily to watch the Grosser Allianz Preis von Bayern, a lucky race for me as i was there for Alpinista in 2021 and Junko last year (didn't go in 2022) although they were easy enough to pick (4/5f and 13/10 2nd f). A good field this afternoon and much more open than recent years, but i think the French can win again with the very consistent Marquisat trained by Andre Fabre. He was only beaten a nose by Junko at Chantilly in his penultimate run and finished 3rd to Goliath at Longchamp LTO, both runs on heavy. The going at München is generally soft this time of the year, although we haven't had an excess of rain in recent weeks, so it shouldn't it heavy. Charlie Appleby's Ancient Wisdom will probably be favourite and his runners to well in Germany, but i think Marquisat will come from off the pace in the long straight.

Betfair exchange doesn't cover München but the Sportsbook does and live video is available on Deutscher galopp.

My previous selection a couple of weeks ago, Maranoa Charlie was well beaten at Saint Cloud, but anyone who backed it (including me) would have known at a very early stage of the race that he couldn't win. Went off like the proverbial scalded cat and was 10L clear at the bend, but it was clearly obvious he couldn't keep that pace up on heavy going, i doubt even Frankel could. He finished well beaten and tired in 4th, but this run can be ignored, he's better than this.

Stewart/Glasgow

Thanks for the supporting posts, sure i got it wrong, but i'm no different to anyone on here, i win and lose, although i don't post tosh or exaggerated claims.

Trusty

Thanks for your selections.

Moving on to our Fellowship Racing syndicate horse, Salamanca Lad was sold at the recent HIT sales and reached 24,000; considering we paid 12,000 last October a decent profit and almost 17,000 in prize money. We had him for 11 races, winning 3, beaten a head in another and was only twice out of the first 4, going up 14lb, testament to a fantastic job Dan and Claire Kübler did. He will be racing in Bahrain for his new owners; i'm sure they will have a lot of fun with him.

We bought another at the same sale a couple of days later, a 2 year old Twilight Son colt, Calibos, a 4 race maiden. We paid 16,000 this time, so after expenses a return on our initial investment, including VAT, although taking the year overall, i suspect a small loss. Having said this, we are not in it for the money.

As with Salamanca Lad, we feel there will be improvement next year stepped up in trip. Still a colt, but is expected to be gelded tomorrow.

A busy few weeks of travel forthcoming, i'm off to Paris on Saturday for II Est Francais in the G1 Prix La Haye Jousselin at Auteuil the following day. I've never been to the course before, so i'm looking forward to it, although it will probably be my only visit there, in fact, if it wasn't for the horse i doubt i would ever go. I've already backed him AP for the KG, so hopefully he wins, although i will not be there to watch him. My only trip to UK prior to Christmas is for the Tingle Creek, although no flights booked yet, and i will be in Sweden on 18th December for a 3 week break, returning to Germany on 7th (6th is a holiday). I fully expect to be here in 2025, although it could be my last full year here.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Thanks for mentioning the German race Andrew, hadn't realised was on and as i like to back German horses in Germany managed to back the winner and the 4th, had related form, only for small bets at SP, watched on 356 site.
   Glad your syndicate made a profit on Salamanca Lad, did well for you, hope the new horse does as well, will look it up later.

Good morning

Going to have a shot at Captain Morgs Chelt 2.55 for the in-form if they are going to win trainer. Although he looks the second string on jockey bookings, he was the second string in Dec 22 when he won. Back to hurdles of a favourable mark in a race where the trainers record is 2-1-4, he has to be worth a punt especially with his favoured good ground. There are only 3 other horses in the race that prefer good going Emailandy, Itso Fury and Hardy Boy. Currently 33/1 with Ladcrooks, OK and Billies, shorter elsewhere.

ttt

Wonder if Andrew is taking the odds on Lossiemouth?

Lucky Luciano posting on behalf of Andrew In Sweden.

Good evening Guys.

Thank you for the posts.

Stewart, you obviously remembered my 'love affair' with Lossiemouth, and in answer to your question, yes i did, at slight odds on and against (night before) although not to the level i have bet on her in the past, but a nice win nevertheless.

I've followed Lossiemouth ever since i was reviewed French form when i was trying to find an AP bet for the Triumph Hurdle, before she even left France (put up on my 2023 thread) and i've backed her in every race since moving to WPM. Her, and Constitution Hill have certainly won me a few bob over time.

With such a small field and the two main protagonists that like to come from off the pace, there was always the risk of a tactical race, and although i thought Beacon Edge would give them a tow into the race, i didn't expect such a crawl that must have had IR players queuing up to take odds on the mare who has a very good tun of foot.

As a sighter for Cheltenham, it didn't tell us anything other than what we already knew. She still tends to be a bit keen, unable to settle at times (reasoning for the jumping error 4 out) but it doesn't stop her winning. A decent enough first run of the season, and her first in open graded company, so the Christmas hurdle could be interesting if she goes there.

In my opinion, she's a 2 miler, all speed, but stamina isn't an issue and she has the class to win over further. I've always been of the opinion she would beat State Man, possibly Sir Gino as well, but not the Constitution Hill of old, so any AP bets for the champion hurdle are pointless until the latter has had a run. As much as i like the mare, the current odds of 7/4 are way too low, although come the day with CH retired for example, i may be singing from a different hymn sheet.

She has more to do to be mentioned in the same breath as Annie Power, but this is possible considering she's only a 5 year old, and it will take a very good one to beat her next March (and i don't mean the mares, she will not be going for it).

Changing topic, i'm off to London on Friday afternoon, meeting up with a couple of friends i often go racing with (including the poster Lucky Luciano) at Sandown on Saturday. It's a decent card, not only the Tingle Creek, but the Henry VIII novice (L'eau Du Sud) and a quality listed race (East India Dock) although i'm not necessarily suggesting the latter couple will win. I haven't seen Ed Thompson since Newmarket earlier in the year, so hopefully i can recover COT losses with him on that day.

Our new syndicate horse, Calibos has settled in well at Dan and Claire Küblers; he's been gelded and the few remaining shares were quickly taken up. Fingers crossed for next year.

Agouti Bear is currently enjoying her winter break over in Kildare.

Only just over 2 weeks in the office left for me this year, back to Linköping on the 18th and staying there until 7th January (6th is a public holiday in many European countries).

Good luck and have a nice evening all.

I guess we won't be getting a 2025 Lay Thread?

Merry Xmas to AIS and his syndicate cohorts and good luck for next year.

I haven't found any decent priced ones to put up unfortunately and unlikely to be any on Thursday although I have had £10 e/w on the French outsider for King George as I am not convinced about any of the runners.

Do not take odds on no 2025 thread Trusty, one of several user names probable to allow Ikea the use of an account in the first person as predicted months ago. Not a banned account because of location as they never are in the UK, not even Wallsend or Jaywick.

TBF perhaps you never noticed the connections or the use of first person posting when saying " I asked" and then first person? Tbh in bed as I type but cannot sleep so thought help those that cannot see!! HTH

Posting on behalf of Andrew in Sweden.

Good evening guys,

My first post since 2nd December, and prior to 3 of us going to Sandown for the Tingle Creek meeting in inclement weather, although compensated by a profitable afternoon after backing 3 favourites, including Jonbon, my bet recorded by Simon Notts in his Star Sports review, although he wasn't there. Quite a few bookmakers didn't turn-up either, including Ed Thompson, but they probably looked at the favourites biased card and the weather forecast early on, and decided not to bother.

Fast forward to last week, i arrived in Stockholm on the 18th and travelled down to the best small city in Sweden, Linköping (probably a biased opinion) on the Saturday. I return to work and München on January 7th; the previous day is a public holiday in Bavaria, as it is in many EU countries.

Part of me would like to be in UK now, at least for a while, as last year, the racing at Kempton during the next couple of days is superb, the highlight being a clash between 2 of my favourite NH horses, the unbeaten Constitution Hill (at least over rules) and the 'should be' unbeaten Lossiemouth who was so unlucky at the DRF in 2023.

I mentioned my history with the mare in my previous post, and with respect to CH, it's a similar story betting wise. I was at Sandown for his debut, and like many of us was very impressed, so much so, i thought he was a good thing for next race, the Tolworth on the same course. I've backed him in every race since his debut run, but tomorrow is a race to watch and i will not be backing either, at least to win. Anyone that does is basically 'guessing', backing or laying, unless they are privy to information out of Seven Barrows as to his well-being. If there is a bet, Lossiemouth in the 2TBP market is the bullet proof call, but only for heavy hitters.

I posted on my 2023 thread that CH will never be beaten over hurdles in a clean race, but this was before the current health issues, he's probably the only horse in training capable of giving her 7lb, but this is assuming he's almost back to his best; it will be a tall order tomorrow. If i could choose a result, as much as i like Lossiemouth, i want CH to win, and to win well. I was at Cheltenham on the Tuesday in 2023 and i think i'm just getting my voice back ;-).

Last year i put-up II Est Francais to win the Kauto Star novices on my thread and backed him @ 3/1 AP; we all saw how impressive he was that day, winning easily and in a good time. I've already backed him to win the KG (14.30) albeit at lessor odds (7/2) than he is today and in a double with CH for Cheltenham. Of course, form figures of 5-1-PU don't offer much encouragement, but it appears bleeding has been an issue, so in the hope he's fine at Kempton, i think he can win. Jumps well, front runs and 24f over a flat Kempton is ideal for him. When he's sound, i doubt the English trainers have anything to beat him and the Irish challenge could have been stronger, but as with CH, any bets on him involve an act of faith and crossed fingers.

In the same race, i've also had a few small stake, fun win bets on his stablemate General En Chef (i guess Trusty is also on this one) at AP odds of 60, 90 and 95 and will add a couple of tenner's in the 3/TBP market tomorrow. His French form is half-decent, and he ran well in the 'Hennessy' LTO, actually travelling like the winner after jumping 3 out, but whether he's good enough to win is another story.

Earlier in the day, i think The Jukebox Man could win the novices chase (13.20) although odds around evens reflect his chances, and Masaccio is not out of it by any means; he was staying on well enough when beaten 2L LTO and the trip is 4f further.

Over in Ireland, i'm interested in the opener, as i've already backed the WPM trained Kawaboomga to win the Supreme @ 40 on here (same odds are still available). Won an AQPS (basically translated as non-thoroughbred) conditions race on the flat in France, prior to finishing a close 3rd on hurdle debut (form is franked) and subsequently purchased by JP McManus. He would have to run well to earn a place in the Supreme and he's also entered in the Turners, but an intuitive AP bet for Cheltenham nevertheless. Mind you, Patrick is on the likely favourite tomorrow, and stable vibes are positive.

I'm also interested in watching how Potters Charm (Aintree 1.05) runs, a horse i've backed on his previous 3 runs, but he's down in trip to 17f tomorrow, and all future entries are between 20.5f and 24f. He could have the class to win, but i certainly wouldn't want to be lumping on at the current odds.

The only lay bets to date (at lessor odds than current) are on the Gordon Elliot trained Croke Park who runs in the 14.20 Leopardstown. Hopefully he will not be allowed an easy, uncontested lead as his previous couple of runs, although i'm fully aware GE has 3 of the 4 entries in the field, but punters are not usually cynical are they ;-).

Trusty,

I doubt i will start a new thread in 2025, and may simply continue with this one, although posts will not be a regular occurrence, even though a few fellow posters are willing to post on my behalf. Due to my residency in Sweden and Germany, i can't open a new forum account in either country, and considering i left GB in 1984 and do not have any plans to return, this route is out of the question. Thank you for all your input, it's much appreciated and this also applies to others.

I will continue to post news about our latest Fellowship Racing syndicate venture, the 2 year old Calibos (recently gelded) continuing our excellent relationship with Dan and Claire Kübler, and my other one (albeit registered to my daughter) a same age filly, Agouti Bear with Danny Murphy in Ireland. As with Salamanca Lad, we expect Calibos to be stepped up in trip to 8f minimum.

My travel/racing plans in early part of 2025 are the Clarence House Meeting at Ascot on 18th January, the DRF in Ireland on 1st/2nd February and a visit to Dan and Claire's Sarsen Farm stable on 8th February for syndicate day, and a Newbury meeting on the same afternoon. Joining me, as often, will be posters Lucky Luciano and Mr Spreadsheet (and other non-posters) for the latter 2 meetings, and we fully expect to meet up again with Workrider and Jimnast (i will probably see him at Ascot as well) both knowledgeable, good guys who we've met up with before.

Finally, i wish you and your loved ones a wonderful remaining time in the Christmas festive period.

Good luck all.

Posted on behalf of Andrew In Sweden by request

Good evening Guys,

I guess it's a bit late to be wishing everyone a Happy New Year, but this is my first post since Boxing day.

Back in München last night after a nice, albeit short weekend in GB (arrived late Friday evening) primarily for the Ascot Clarence House meeting on Saturday, and a general English 'food fix' (you can only eat so much Schnitzel and Wurst). Weatherwise, it was a bit overcast and chilly on course, but not so cold, at least compared to here recently.

I expected a bigger crowd considering it wasn't a bad card, and chatting with the very dapperly dressed, Simon Nott, he mentioned trading at Star Sports was low key in general, with exception of a couple of largish bets.

I only had a couple of bets myself, one of those was a small stake on Mondoe Man in the opener, who probably lost his chance way before the finish, pulling hard, but did well under the circumstances to finish runner-up. Fair play to the winner, Lulamba who travelled well enough and did it nicely in the end, but post-race bookmaker reaction offering quotes of 6/4 for the Triumph is just crazy in my opinion, and i'm happy to lay at those odds and a bit higher. A small field, 3 of his rivals had never jumped a hurdle on course, and one who had, finished 7th of 7 in his previous race. Surely there are better 6/4 bets than this one.

Speaking of the Triumph, i've already had a small win bet on the French import Sauvignon at decent odds (40). Now with Paul Nichols, he had half-decent form in France (1-2-1) the last win in Listed class, and he was due to race against Lulamba last week, but the meeting was abandoned. I noticed a Sporting Life news feature mentioning this one earlier, although not exactly a tip; he could be running later this week.

Nicky also has the German Derby winner Palladium entered in the Triumph, and this is another i'm happy to take on after he's hopefully won a couple of egg and spoon maiden/novice races and comes down in the betting. I know this horse well, he was sold for 1.4 million euros at the Argana sales, but in my opinion, previous connections must be rubbing their hands; you can certainly pick holes in the Deutsche Derby form, and previous to this, he wasn't that special.

In the classic, he was drawn in stall 20, but moved across the field to take a prominent position early where he stayed, but approaching the final bend he was ridden, certainly not looking the likely winner. Credit to the jockey though, he went back across to the opposing side of the track where the going may even have been a 'Golden highway' and he stayed on to win, albeit more workmanlike than anything else. From an 18-runner field, not one has come out and won since.

Still a colt, so i guess a flat/group race season is forthcoming, as you would expect, but i doubt he's another Danedream or Torquator Tasso, but lets see.

My Saturday Ascot afternoon was really only about Jonbon, it was either going to be a winning or losing weekend, although i was as confident as you can be in a graded race, he had one to beat and i thought he only had to jump around cleanly, and he did apart from a minor blip 3 out. Only one 11 year old has won the race, so odds were against Energumene.

Jonbon seems to have improved this year, but as much as i like the horse, i'm not sure i will be lumping on at Cheltenham, although i think too much is made of his record there (2-2-1-2-1). The first run was over hurdles against probably the best ever, but he still finished 2nd in a Supreme. Beaten by a better one on the day against El Fabiolo (jumping left cost him lengths) and should have won the Clarence House at 1/4 last year, and would have but for a very bad mistake. I guess who runs in March is more of an issue, Gaelic Warrior and II Est Francais to name a couple will certainly test his jumping if they run. If the latter does, it will be a race to watch, that's for sure, but will connections go for the Ryanair. If he was mine, i would wait for Aintree over 20f.

Apart from Simon, i also met the BF poster Jimnast and his wife (not for the first time). They were at Windsor the previous day, it used to be one of my local courses when i lived in UK during bygone years. I left after the Jonbon race, but it appears i missed an improving sort in Jax Junior who must surely go to Cheltenham. A good winning day and even after an Easy Jet return flight, 2 nights in the airport Premier Inn, course ticket and refreshments etc, i came away with a decent profit.

Race meetings are much of a muchness this week, at least until the Sandown military card on Friday, although a few Cheltenham hopefuls could be running from Thursday onwards, including a possible match between Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth on Saturday that may even decide where the mare runs in March. If she stays home to wait for the DRF, it's likely CH could probably be his shortest SP ever, as there's only Brentford Hope left of any consequence, albeit rated 27 lb lower. Nicky could replace Nico in the saddle and still win.

I'm not interested in any racing during the forthcoming few days, but i've backed Aryna Sabalenka in the Australian Womens tennis (outright) and she could potentially meet one of my favourite female players, Iga Swiatek in the final, although she's better at Roland Gardens. The faster court in Melbourne doesn't suit her game and Sabalenka is going for a hat-trick after winning in 2022 and 2023.

January is certainly a travelling month for me, back home to Linköping this Friday for the weekend, Dublin next Friday for 3.5 days and the 2 day DRF where i expect to meet at least 4 BF posters, including a couple i go racing with often, then a visit to Dan and Claire Küblers stable for their open day in Lambourn (and our syndicate horse Calibos) on 8th February, followed by Newbury in the afternoon.

I doubt i will be going to Cheltenham in March, but never say never, and if i do, it will only be the first day.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.

Good to hear from you again Andrew. Happy New Year to you also.
Chasers are not really my first love in racing but watched Jonbon's race and didn't think the horse jumped well at all.
Don't wish to put anyone off as I am usually wrong.

An even more belated New Year to AIS, his posters and followers.

Couldn't find a Trusty longshot to post, so thought I would post a lay:-

Donc 12:20 Matwana currently 3.2 to lay on here, would have lost LTO to Belfrina if she had not fallen at the last and Morning Air cannot be discounted. Harry Derham is shockingly out of form 0-33 with most runners out with the washing. Trainer form always important for me.

Thank you 

Was supposed to be easier than that, apparently traded down to 1.02!

Posted for Andrew in Sweden.

Good morning Guys,

A shorter post than on some occasions due to time constraints. Thank you for the posts and NY greetings since my Sandown Tingle Creek report, much appreciated.

Trusty, WD with the lay selection, always good to get 1.03 beaten.

Tommy, in my opinion Jonbon is not a Sprinter Sacre or II Est Francais in terms of jumping prowess, and is prone to occasional errors, the Clarence House in 2024 being a typical example, but has improved since then and is more relaxed these days. I thought he jumped well enough at Sandown, with exception of the 3rd last. Good luck.

I arrived in Dublin yesterday lunchtime and was joined a hour later by a trio of guys, including a couple of posters on here i often go racing with and meeting another today. We're here for the 2 day DRF meeting; always a decent weekend and Irish hospitality is just one of the positives. Hopefully the weather holds-up, it was a nice day yesterday, although it looks a bit overcast at the moment.

Willie Mullins went through the 8 x G1's last year, but i don't expect the same this weekend, although he's going to win more than he loses. My guess is 6, with 4 of those today.

As so often at race meetings, i will not be playing in every race and generally small stakes. In the opener (1.15) Willie will probably win it considering 5 entries, first 4 in the betting, albeit not necessarily with the favourite who looks short enough. If i do have a bet, it will only be an EW fun stake on Mozzies Sister (19.0/4.2 for 3/TBP). She would have finished closer when finishing 2nd in a G2 after an error at the penultimate flight, but stayed on well late on. She receives the customary 7lb sex allowance and stable has a decent strike rate recently.

In the Juvenile (1.50) a few Cheltenham Triumph hurdle hopefuls are in the field, each wanting to stake a claim as Irelands main chance against the GB trained Lulamba and East India Dock next month. I like Sainte Lucie who has been well backed in recent days deposing Hello Neighbour as favourite. Her French form is average at best, and the same applies to her Punchestown win, but she won very easily. I doubt she's another Lossiemouth who was beaten at odds-on in the 2023 running of this race (sadly, as i was here) and went on to win at Cheltenham, but she just might be useful.

Willie will probably win the following 2 Grade 1's with Majborough and Galopin Des Champs. There's nothing i can add that we don't know about the latter, an exceptional record on course and going for a hat-trick in this race. Fact Of File will not be beaten easily, but if GDC puts in a relatively error free round of jumping i feel he will win.

If he wins, i will have a profitable afternoon whatever happens, and i may play up some of it on Ireland to beat England in the 6 nations rugby. We will find a sportsbar somewhere in the city to watch it (it's also being shown on the course).

Away from Leopardstown, i was surprised to see a betting drift on Handstands in the Scilly Isle chase (Sandown 2.25) currently 4.80 on here, even though he has to improve on ratings. Course experience, and he looked good when winning easily LTO, irrespective of only 2 finishers, he would have won regardless. The market appears to have underestimated him, but it could be case of they've got it right, and i haven't.

Changing topic, our ex-syndicate horse Salamanca Lad has run twice for new connections in Bahrain recently, finishing 2nd on debut there last Friday and down the field yesterday. Link to the VR below.

https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Bahrain/24-January-2025/1400

A few of us are going to Dan and Claire's stable at Sarsen Farm in Lambourn next Saturday for their 'open morning' when i will get a first look at Calibos, our latest recruit. In the afternoon we're off to Newbury where Sir Gino gives us chance to see how good he is in the Game Spirit chase. More on this next week.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

I hope you have profitable and enjoyable weekend Andrew, I am off to Sandown shortly.

Hope you enjoy Leopardstown and Sandown Second Again.

I have been laying Kalif Du Berlais in the Scilly Isles. 5yr old have an impressive 60% strike rate but Pumpkin has had 10 runners in the last 10 years and only achieved 2 places. He hasn't even had a winner for 13 days and his horses are not finishing their races. I have tempered my bet a little as they are running it in John Hales's colours, who died yesterday.

WD Trusty

Thanks Andrew

Always worth a read, welldone on the lay Trusty.

Well done with the lay Trusty, it was well beaten

Posted for Andrew In Sweden

Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the posts, appreciated as always.

Trusty, WD with another successful lay. Second Again, hope you also had a profitable day at Sandown. Glasgow, thanks, i can't post these days as you know, so i've been keeping my input to sporadic occasions via friends, but it's good to know someone reads them ;-).

A cracking afternoon at Leopardstown yesterday, not only financially, but witnessing probably the best Irish trained Chaser since Arkle in Galopin Des Champs.

My only bets were as posted yesterday, starting with a fun stake W/P on Mozzies Sister (3rd @ 12/1) who was well backed late on from 18/1. The winnings were not enough to pay for a round of drinks, but good to get off to a profitable start at least. A small win bet on Saint Lucie followed and this was my only loser on the day, although it appears something was amiss as she faded quickly after the 2nd last; i doubt she would have won anyway.

Handstands won (100/30) under a superb ride from the more than capable Ben Jones, an exciting finish, battling well and staying on strongly on the run-in when it looked like the favourite Jango Baie was going to get up.

Winning bets on Majborough and a good few bob on Galopin Des Champs ensured i will be returning to Germany in profit tomorrow afternoon.

I didn't have a bet on the other 3 races, in fact, we left not long after the Gold Cup.

Icing on the cake was to follow with a win on Ireland beating England in the rugby.

We watched the game in a city centre pub where we got talking with a young Irish woman and her dad. It turned out she's a work rider for the French trainer Francis Graffard in Paris and was only in Dublin for a family visit. A really lovely woman, nice to converse with and she knew all about 2 of the stable stars, Goliath and Calandagan who she mentioned is going to run in Dubai next month.

We ended up in a Brasilian restaurant, really good food, the streak was superb as you would expect, and not expensive, i can recommend it to anyone visiting Dublin.

https://bah33.ie/

On to this afternoon; the card doesn't look as easy as yesterday, even with a couple of WPM shorties in the novices. Considering my profit yesterday, i will be treating this afternoon simply as a fun occasion with friends, i don't fancy anything really strongly, and there are question marks against a couple anyway. Any bets i have will be restricted to double figures.

In the opener (12.45) i will probably play Savante for a fun EW stake, lightly raced and was staying on when brought down at the penultimate flight 2 out on the course LTO. A 2f drop in trip shouldn't be an issue if she races a little more prominently and the likely favourite Queens Gamble is conceding 20lb including jockey claim.

Ballyburn is the rightful favourite in the novice chase (1.10) but the more i look at this race, the more i'm leaning towards his stablemate Impaire Et Passe who is probably the better jumper of a fence. If i have a bet, it think it will be on the latter.

Regular readers are fully aware of my fondness for Lossiemouth, a mare i've followed over a cliff since coming over from France. I wasn't shocked Paul Townend decided to ride State Man, albeit a little surprised, but 16f at  Leopardstown will suit him more than it will the mare. A 2.5L beating on a flat, sharp course by maybe one of the best ever hurdlers was a decent run LTO and if she can lay up closer to the pace, i think her turn of foot will be able to pick up State Man.

As mentioned, more of a fun afternoon than about profit, but if Lossiemouth does win, my shouting will definitely be heard.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

I am not usually worried about spelling mistakes Andrew but this one made me chuckle.

We ended up in a Brasilian restaurant, really good food, the streak was superb as you would expect, and not expensive, i can recommend it to anyone visiting Dublin.

Was the streaker sporting a Brazilian?...

Think i'd have gone for the sausage myself     

Posted on behalf of Andrew In Sweden.

Good evening Guys.

Many thanks for the posts, Glasgow, Lead On and Hayden; and as for the spelling error, no excuse other than lack of concentration; i can't even use 'it was a long day' considering i sent it via email to Mr Spreadsheet earlier enough. Mind you, a female Brasilian streaker in the restaurant would have been welcomed by us.

As i haven't posted since, i thought i would type a summary of our DRF Sunday, and last Saturdays racing themed day, initially at Dan and Claire Kübler's stable, followed by the Newbury meeting in the afternoon.

As mentioned in my previous post, DRF Saturday was a decent day, i made a nice few bob, so Sunday was only going to be a small stakes day to enjoy. If i was asked the previous week who would win the Ladbrokes Irish Novice, i would have responded immediately with Ballyburn, but for whatever reason i had a change of heart and went for Impaire Et Passe who jumped like a pig and finished a tired 3rd. My stake was quickly recovered with a small win on Kopek Des Bordes who couldn't have been more impressive, Willie could have been on board wearing a trench coat and hat, and he would still have won. He's obviously well above average unless the field was rubbish, but even if it was, the manner he went about it was very impressive. If he wins the Supreme, he may be a Champion Hurdle candidate in 2026, he could be anything.

I didn't have a bet in the Dublin chase, even though all of us were against Gaelic Warrior, but i still don't know why i didn't lay him. The winner Solness made all and ran well, so there could be a lot of pace in the Cheltenham Champion chase if he, Gaelic Warrior, Jonbon, II Est Francais, Energumene and Matata are in the field, they all run prominently. I really want the French horse to run, he would take some catching, although i'm not suggesting he will win.

I went into the Irish Champion hurdle £30 down on the afternoon, so i backed Lossiemouth with £70 to round it up, it was going to be my last bet on the card anyway. I was surprised she made the running, she doesn't normally, in fact, the only time she did was in France on debut. Difficult to know how the race would have panned out without her fall, and we will never know. Having said that, i would bet a good few bob on her in a match race with State Man at Cheltenham. I appreciate Paul eased him late on, but i got the impression he finished a bit more tired than would have been expected. Irrespective of the result, the most important conclusion was she and the Danny walked away unscathed, although not an ideal preparation for March of course.

We stayed for the last 2 races, but i didn't bet in them.

For those that have never been to the DRF, i can thoroughly recommend it, 2 days of superb racing including 8 x grade 1's, a great atmosphere, €62.50 (including booking fee) for the weekend ticket and the Irish themselves. I don't want to fawn over local posters here, but i've mentioned before, they are really lovely people and their friendliness is on a par with Swedes, even though the latter are a little more reserved. As for customer services of whatever type, Germans could certainly learn from them. A fantastic weekend with several posters on here (not too difficult to know who) good company, several beers and decent food, although i wasn't up for an English/Irish breakfast on my return.

Regular readers know i use KLM/Air France often (they code share) especially flying back home to Sweden and although both are decent airlines, punctuality is not one of their positive traits, the guys i go racing with can testify to this. My first flight on Monday was delayed, that meant i would not be able to catch my connection to München, hence they cancelled it. Mind you, it wasn't necessarily a negative, they booked me in at the Dublin Carlton airport hotel overnight, dinner and breakfast vouchers and i will receive compensation of €350 in due course, so this has paid for the 3 hotel nights with a bit left over. I worked remote from the KLM/AF lounge for a few hours the following day with more free food and drink.

I mentioned in my previous post we met a young woman in a Dublin pub whilst the rugby was on, she's a work rider for the French trainer Francis Graffard in Paris and was only in Dublin for a family visit. She certainly knew of the Aga Khans horses, and had ridden some herself, so i thought of her when news of his passing away came a few days later. My racing days go back before Shergar won the Epsom Derby and i've seen many of his runners at Longchamp since, including one of my favourite filles, the wonderful, unbeaten Zarkava. You could back his runners blind during Arc weekend and often end up in profit, in fact on one occasion he had 7 winners, i think it was when Sea The Stars won (guess who didn't back them all).

Another sad facet of the sport occurred last Thursday with the sad news that Irish jockey Michael Sullivan was injured at Galway and is currently in intensive care. Our prayers are with him for a recovery, but will they be enough for him to ride again.

Moving on to our Dan and Claire Kübler stable visit at Sarsen Farm in Lambourn to see our latest syndicate horse, the now 3 year old Calibos, a very enjoyable morning with a Champagne breakfast (not my favourite tipple) and a chance to meet other owners. I thought it was an 'open day', but it was only arranged for Fellowship Racing (our syndicate) and the stables Diskovery who have several horses. We drove up to the fog bound gallops and watched Calibos and a few others canter. Claire mentioned he's doing well, putting on weight, although i guess the latter was expected. He will have another 3 weeks of half-speed work, moving up to 75%/100% early in March and maybe his first run for us in April. Fingers crossed. No race news on my other, the 3 year old filly Agouti Bear in Ireland with Danny Murphy, but she is fine.

In the afternoon we went to Newbury where Dan had previously arranged a private box for 22 of us, albeit at £60 a head. It was pleasant enough, a good view from our balcony on the 4th floor (the fog did obscure some of it) but a paid bar with a limited choice at that, and only tea and coffee as any form of refreshment. I thought we would have a few sandwiches or whatever at least. It was my first time in such an enclosure, but i doubt i would do it again, the benefits are few and i like to be in the stand watching the racing anyway. A few of us felt the same, but it seemed to be group decision, so we went with it. Another tick in the box at least.

Sir Gino a NR was disappointing, i had planned to back him, but no big deal and it wasn't a bad card. I had 5 bets on course, 3 returns, a lay of Bravemansgame, Navajo Indy EW in the 'Schweppes' and the bumper winner in the finale. I backed the latter on the tote outlet outside our box, it was almost 3/1 at the time, so i was surprised at the 15/8 SP.. A small gain on the day, the Paul Nichols runner in the opener my main loser and another in Ireland, but not large stakes.

Joyeuse looked better than a handicapper and maybe Navajo Indy could have a shout in the Coral Cup if he runs, he was certainly staying on late.

We met Alan Potts on course and had a decent chat, i communicate with him via email regularly. It's a pity neither of us can post on here any longer, although the forum is not what it was years back. I have a WhatsApp group with quite a few posters anyway, it serves us well, without the BS that is so prevalent in social media today, but i'm happy to post here on occasions.

No racing of any note during the next few days, but we have the Ascot Betfair Chase on Saturday, a race won by One Man and Kauto Star back in time, and more recently by Cue Card and Shishkin. L'Homme Presse and last years winner Pic D'Orhy may not reach similar heights as the pre-mentioned, but it should be a good race, so maybe another post on the day.

I arrived back in München last night, this was my 4th successive weekend of travelling including Ascot, back home in Linköping, Leopardstown and Newbury, so i'm actually looking forward to a few relaxing Saturdays watching the sport on TV now. My next trip will be back home in Sweden, but for racing, no definite plans. Tuesday at Cheltenham is a very tentative plan, as much as i love the opening day card (i was there in 2023) but i will decide this week, although i have doubts i will attend. I went to Barcelona/Lloret for several days last year and watched the televised meeting over there, i enjoyed it, warm, and Betfair is as easy to access over there as it is in Germany. I may consider it again.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.

Good morning, going to hijack AIS's thread with some selections that have caught the eye today:-

Hay 12:55 Doddiethegreat No great form on show but Henderson has a really good record in this race 1-3-4 and I expect the step up in trip and first time cheekpieces may be enough to hit the frame at least. 16/1 generally.

Ascot 2:25 Samarrive Third in the race in 2023 and now 7lb's lower. Nichols form clearly been very poor but a Saturday Ascot card often sees a revival. 25/1 looks an e/w steal and I have put it in an e/w double with Doddie.

Ascot 3:37 Le Patron Surely better than the run last time and although something to find at the weights he is only 7 and 7 year olds have by far the best record in this race. Was 16/1 last night but 12/1 still fair imo.

Posted on behalf of Andrew in Sweden

Good evening Guys, it's been a while since i posted last, in fact it was a month ago, but as we're approaching the Cheltenham festival i thought i would share my views on some of my selections/bets.

No festival attendance for me, just as last year when i went to Barcelona/Lloret and watched it on ITV, i really enjoyed it, and accessing BF was not an issue, as it is just about everywhere with a VPN.

Going to Spain during Cheltenham festival week seems to becoming more popular and taking everything into consideration, it's hardly surprising. 4 days in the premier enclosure with refreshments and you've done over £500 without adding hotel and travelling costs.

I did consider going to Spain again this year, but unfortunately, i will be driving down to Zurich after lunch on Wednesday afternoon for company meetings on the following 2 days, so i will not even be able to watch it live on TV. Tuesday is my favourite day anyway, so at least i can watch several races i already have an interest in.

My take on the 4 days, as i will not be posting during the week.

Tuesday

Supreme Hurdle (13.20)

I've already backed Kopek Des Brandes; not long after i saw him win at the DRF where he was impressive. If there is one thing to watch it's how he is during the preliminaries because he can be a bit edgy. Willie is planning to use a hood that will help, so fingers crossed. If he wins, it will be a good start for another bet, Paul Townend to be top jockey at the festival.

Arkle Chase (2.00)

Majborough is the obvious favourite, although his 2 main rivals will certainly test his jumping. The likely winner, but i'm not backing anything in the race.

Ultimate Chase (2.40)

Cheltenham handicaps are difficult at the best of times, and this one is no exception, so my stake will be small and EW on Broadway Boy on a track he likes, his course record is 1-2-1-1-3-4. His last run was poor, but he jumped poorly and never looked happy. Currently just under 10 on here for the win.

Mares Hurdle (3.20)

Lossiemouth is one of my favourite hurdlers, but although i think she could hose up, i'm not sure i will be backing her.

Champion Hurdle (4.00)

I've already backed Constitution Hill (7/4) and i will be backing him again on the day. Quite possibly the best ever, even though he's not been anything like his best in a couple if recent runs; i think we will see a different horse this time. i'm not convinced Brighterdaysahead is as good as she was visibly at Leopardstown, but let's see.

Fred Winter (4.40)

I've had a small EW on Liam Swagger at 25/1 and he could out-run those odds, but has to jump better than he did at Newbury LTO. My stake for this race will be covered by a lay of the French trained Stencil, his French form is not too bad, but i feel a mark of 135 is high enough.

Wednesday

Turners Hurdle (1.20)

Not a day i'm overly enthusiastic about.

Final Demand was impressive at the DRF, but probably didn't beat much. I will have a small EW on Potters Charm (currently around 14 on here). He was beaten at 8/15 LTO (winner subsequently disqualified) but i don't think we saw hm at his best on that day.

Browns Advisory (2.00)

I'm not interested in backing Ballyburn, good though he is, he can be quite keen.

Champion Chase (2.40)

I think Jonbon will win, i don't subscribe to the notion he doesn't run well on the course. Solness will give him a good tow into the race, but will give way before the final fence.

Thursday

Ryanair Chase (3.20)

My favourite French chaser II Est Francais is the one i like here and assuming he acts on the track (only raced on flat tracks) and gets into a rhythm may be hard to peg back. Auteuil is not billiard table flat anyway, and at least it is left handed.

Stayers Hurdle (4.00)

I'm not interested in the favourite Teauptoo.

Friday

Triumph Hurdle (1.20)

I'm laying Lulamba who in my eyes in the wrong favourite, although Nicky would probably disagree. His French form is average at best and the Ascot win, although nice on the eye, wasn't that strong a race. If i had to pick a back, it would be the Irish trained Hello Neighbour, but that doesn't necessarily mean i will back him.

Gold Cup (4.00)

Probably the best bet of the meeting if you ignore betting odds, Galop Des Champs will win and stamp his place in history. Already backed at varying odds between 1.6 and 1.7. I will be disappointed in this one get beaten; hopefully i should be back in my hotel room to watch the race (17.00 CET).

Trusty

Many thanks for your selections, WD on the 28/1 runner-up, i was surprised nobody picked up on it.

Good luck and have a nice evening all

Thank you

Good to see a post from you Andrew, your regular posts have been greatly missed on the forum, good luck with your selections.

Interesting post Andrew,I can see the fav continue to drift in the opener Tuesday,not too worrying if you're on at decent odds but very skinny at the current price considering running style and the unforgiving nature of this track,really looking forward to this one and I think Workahead is a good E/W chance to cause a bit of a surprise.

Great to read your thoughts Andrew, many thanks.

Couldn't believe they gave the fav a lead in the opener which was exactly what PT was looking for.

It will be some horse if they can teach it to jump.

Incredible that some still believe Ikea Man is a single entity?

Morning AIS

Agree strongly with Potter's Charm in the 1.20 today. Taken a very similar route to The New One in 2013, including being beaten in the same prep race at the Jan meeting. 14/1 looks a stonking e/w. Will also like drying ground have no idea if Cheltenham have been watering but nothing is a surprise these days.

Andrew, good to see your old friend Vauban who Rich Ricci sold for 1 million last November  in Australia making a winning return today at Rosehill over 1m 2furlongs in a decent race. he will be aimed at all the top races in Aus including the Melbourne Cup.

Good evening Guys,

A test post.

For whatever reason, Betfair are allowing me to post again, although i had to use hyphens instead of dots in order to create a new profile. I noticed a few days ago many new names were posting, there is even a thread dedicated to it on here, so maybe they are relaxing the rules, or want to attract new blood.

I will keep this short, but regular readers will know of our new syndicate horse Calibos who we bought for 18K at the Newmarket HIT sales last October to replace Salamanca Lad who did so well for us. Dan and Claire Kübler remain as the trainers, we were more than happy with the improvement made by the horse, he won 3 races for us, very nearly a 4th, 17K+ prize money and was sold for almost double what we paid for him. He's currently racing in Bahrain and won last Thursday, his first win in 6 races over there, 5 of them over shorter trips.

Calibos has his first run for us this evening at Yarmouth (19.05) ridden by Jim Crowley. His 2 year old form was ordinary at best and it looks a typical class 6 trappy handicap, so we will be more than happy if he places. I'm not over there on this occasion, but BF posters and fellow shareholders, Lucky Luciano and Mr Spreadsheet (who i go racing with) are. Fingers crossed.

Many thanks for posts since my Cheltenham summary almost a month ago. More tomorrow, assuming this posts.

Good luck all and have a nice Saturday evening.

Welcome back

The boy is back in town again, welcome back Andrew, good luck with your new horse.

Tobymug is as mad as a box of frogs

Welcome back AIS and good luck with Calibos

ROFL, as predicted!!

Good to have you back Andrew,could do with the Anorak back as well.

Alan had only one user name Kalaglow and never conned anyone!!

Welcome back Andrew.

Thanks for the posts Guys (bar the expected response from my troll)

Our horse Calibos was unplaced, beaten a tad over 6L, although the first 3 home had the advantage of a race already this season, in fact the front two had won. He took a while for him to get involved, although it did look promising at the 2f pole, but he faded tamely and Jim basically coasted home, so he hasn't had a hard race. He's lightly raced and will probably step-up in trip soon. Onwards and upwards.

Have a nice evening all.

" Troll " Ikea man, explain why you think that telling the truth makes me such?

Look back and see where this was all predicted and the sweat when the truth is continued and you again run away, Mr spreadshit knows btw!!! ROFL

Good to see you back AIS

Shame your troll still is

LOL at trolls madmutt, multi users no issue to you TBF!!!

Yea tobymugs
You the expert on multis
Banned ones

CagliariG 05 Apr 25 19:42 
" Troll " Ikea man, explain why you think that telling the truth makes me such?

Look back and see where this was all predicted and the sweat when the truth is continued and you again run away, Mr spreadshit knows btw!!! ROFL

Mr bullshit strikes again with no evidence
Got nowt better to do then try wind people up
Must of run out of young eyetie boyz
Yet the only one wound up is tobymugs like a corkscrew
I won't pollute anymore with responses
Sad case amd waste of space

Keep on dancing madmug and Ikea, when you wish the facts let me know?

Kick off with " 11 years in same MQ but only served 6 years " ? Ikea?

Sleep well cagino, don't let the lies keep you awake, they never do bbf with conmen!!

Hi Andrew glad to see that you are able to post again, good luck with your new horse. In the past we have spoken about enjoying visiting cathedrals although neither of us is religious. I was lucky enough to visit Seville cathedral recently and was very impressed with it and if you have not seen it already put it on your bucket list. Have a good flat season punting and laying.

Welcome back Andrew and good luck with the new horse.

Pity about the lunatic stalker but thank God for the ‘Block User’ button.

Welcome back Andrew. It's a pity you can't block people to post on topics you have created. A waste of oxygen if you are ask me

Andrew's probably already blocked him - after all, the option is only a click away and available to everyone who doesn't want to see CagliariG's posts...

Second again I'm going to Seville next Sept and will have a look at it thanks..

Welcome back to the forum Andrew

Perhaps the balance of his mind was disturbed after the mythical £155 K Lay of the Derby winner which became a Trade after the race?

Workrider, it's a lovely city you will enjoy it. I would advise you to pre book your tickets for the cathedral to avoid the queue's, I was able to do it easily just make sure you book on the official website.

Good evening Guys,

Many thanks for the 'sensible' posts () since the Calibos race on Saturday, some posters of whom i know personally and go racing with. No racing selections to discuss this evening, but it gives me chance to respond to a few.

I haven't decided whether to start a new 2025 lay thread yet, but in the event i do, i will probably only post at weekends and vacation days, simply due to my workload. Regular readers are aware of my aerospace profession and i have 3 clients now, so i split my daily routine between 2 of them, circa 50% on the same complex, and also involved with an Airbus P2F conversion project, albeit only advisory and the occasional MS Teams call.

Ashleigh

Good to see you remembered my love affair with Vauban, certainly a AP highlight bet for the Triumph hurdle back in time. I was surprised Ricci sold him, it's not as though he's short of a few bob, he could have stayed in Australia under his ownership and although another £ million is not to be sniffed at, a decent win could surpass that sum easily over there, look how well Via Sistina has done (albeit rated a little higher). Since your post, Vauban has finished 3rd in the G1 Tancred stakes, not beaten far by the William Haggas trained Dubai Honour. No entries yet that i can see, but the G1 Queen Elizabeth stakes is run at Rosehill this Saturday, maybe he could take in that race, the winners prize is a mind boggling, close to £2 million.

Second Again

Correct about churches and cathedrals, but not from a religious perspective at all as you mentioned, more the superb architecture and engineering involved. As an engineer myself, i'm in awe at many that were designed centuries ago, with none of the modern 3D software tools and CNC machining we have at our disposal today, so accurate they basically negate tolerances (although we still use them). Simply wonderful craftmanship and excellence that has stood the test of time.

As for Sevilla and the Cathedral, yes, i know them both well, i worked for CASA in the 80's involved in the then, CN-235-200 aircraft project for 2 years. We lived in Ciudad Verde, about 5 minutes drive from the airport where they were based, and still are. In later years, the project was transferred to sole manufacturer, IPTN in Indonesia and CASA was integrated into the EADS consortium; today they are part of the A400 transport aircraft program for Airbus Military.

My favourite Spanish city, and i still look at the local football team results (Sevilla FC, not Betis). I often went to the ground for a game and never had one issue being a foreigner there, quite the reverse in fact. As you mentioned, the Cathedral is stunning (Christopher Columbus is buried there) and i recommend the city wholeheartedly (you will love it Workrider). Beware of summer temperatures, it gets very hot down there, 44c is not uncommon, one of the reasons aircraft manufacturers use the area for 'hot and high' trials during flight test programs.

Punchestown

Totally agree about Kopek Des Brandes, he will not look out of place in the Champion hurdle next year.

Top2rated

Thanks, i'm often impressed with your photo-shop skills . Sure, i'm aware of the forum block button, although for some time now i haven't bothered responding to the numpty, but occasionally i like to defend myself against absurd accusations that have been ongoing since October 2019 no less ! To be honest, i think he has mental issues, and i don't mean that to be insulting at all, it's not always me he has a pop at anyway.

Kalaglow

A good horse in bygone days, you ran in Shergar's Derby. I totally agree with your comments about The Anorak (Alan Potts). I've mentioned a few times on here i was flattered he often used my lay threads to post on, very informative and well respected here. I'm in contact with him often via email; he still goes racing, in fact i met him at Newbury in February (with Lucky Luciano).

As for my next racecourse visit, no definite plans apart from Longchamp in May on Guineas Sunday (11th). I actually wanted to go this weekend for the G3 Prx Grotte, a 1000 Guineas trial, but i've been informed it's the Paris Marathon, hence the reasoning for expensive flights and hotels. I had thoughts to watch and maybe back Zarigana, in my opinion the best 2 year old filly in Europe last year, even though she was beaten by a head bob on Arc day, 1.01 IR, probably in part to an over confident Micheal Barzalona (i was there with a few guys from here). If she's trained on, she could take some beating in the French 1000. I'm only assuming she will be entered this Sunday, but i think it's likely. Her stablemate, Vertical Blue, the one that beat her on Arc day has been entered for the Newmarket Guineas.

There's a possibility i could be at Newbury this Saturday, but i will decide in the next day or so.

Finally, my troll has often asserted, including as recently as Saturday, that posters, Lucky Luciano, Mr Spreadsheet (both syndicate members) and Happy Sandwich were simply my alternative user-names. To clarify this (not that he will accept) the following posters have met one, two, or even all of them at some stage : Workrider, Brigust 1, Jimnast, Flash Bookie and The Anorak. I've only ever had 2 user names here since circa 2003, the first was Ex-Pat in Germany, and the 2nd variables of AIS with no dots and hyphens, then both.

Hopefully back to tranquility on here now, my next post will probably at the weekend.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.

Good to see you back Andrew, I will give the thread an extra spray for you.


       
   

Welcome back Andrew   

Hi Andrew, second favourite horse first one being Mtoto.

Evening Andrew. Good to hear from you again and best of luck with your new horse.
Having a building trade background I share your interest in old buildings/churches and roofs in particular. Also bridges, and was involved in the building of motorway bridges in the sixties (formwork).
You will most likely be aware of the news yesterday that the Red Arrows are to be replaced soon and a Russian plane is among the ones that are being considered. I heard this on LBC Nick Ferrari show and among those commenting was an Aircraft Manufacturer from Bristol who spoke very well about their planes the name began with an A.It sounded like Arailis, not sure but he spoke very well about the suitability of the plane as a replacement.I don't think we should be going to Russia for anything at this time.
The weather here is fantastic at the moment and golfed today shorts and shirt. Still looking at going to Ayr on Friday as Saturday will be too busy.

Good evening guys,

Many thanks for the posts, always appreciated.

Tommy

I've often mentioned on my threads i'm an Aerospace nerd first, in particular military aircraft, and massive horse racing fan second. Considering i've grown up with aircraft ever since a midwife gave me the customary slap and i've spent a lifetime working with them, it's hardly surprising, so i'm more than happy to respond to youur post.

Yes, i'm fully aware of the Red Arrows Hawk T1 replacement study, envisaged to be around 2030, with T2 5-10 years later, although the latter time frame could be reduced due to issues with the RR engine.

You are correct with reference to the Bristol company, Aeralis, who have been mentioned as a potential candidate to supply new trainers in future years, but i have my doubts. One positive is they are a British based company and Red Arrows have always flown GB manufactured trainers, another evolves around finance as the project is not paid for by tax payers, but funded privately.

Not much is known about the company, at least from an outsiders perspective so for legal reasons i have to be careful with words; i 'assume' the project has been subject to delays, it's only a 'paper' aircraft (computer designed of course) they don't have a prototype and there are 'possible' issues with the modular concept. The flight test program will be lengthy and it's all well and good designing an aircraft on a 3D CAD monitor, but a whole different ball game bringing it to production. Could they deliver a fully certified aircraft by 2030, not impossible, but in my opinion, no, although i would love to be proved wrong and hope they do.

So what are the alternatives ?

One suggestion is the joint Russian/Italian Aermacchi M-346, but this could be in doubt due to economic sanctions and in my opinion should not be chosen anyway, full stop. Alternative choices include another joint venture, the Saab-Boeing T7 (coincidently named Red Hawk) and the TIA Hürjet from Turkey. The South Koreans also have the Kai T-50, but i'm not familiar with that aircraft.

Whichever aircraft replaces the Hawk will not be decided by RAF personal anyway, we all know such contracts are political and don't always result in the best decision being made. A typical example was back in the 60's when Harold Wilson cancelled the TSR-2 project that was light years better than anything the US had. I lost faith in British politicians decades ago, and a well known phrase amongst aircraft engineers is 'All modern aircraft have four dimensions, span, length, height and politics, but sadly TSR-2 only got the first 3 right'.

There was a misconception in bygone years, a belief that the USA were best at everything, and in some quarters it probably exits today. I have a lot of respect for their space program, but are their engineers any better than Brits or Europeans ? No they are not. I worked on every Saab special mission aircraft that flew out of Linköping and i'm proud of that fact. It's no secret the US government were really p*ssed that Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Dubai Air Forces chose the various Saab Erieye AEW&C program aircraft instead of the US variables, but there were valid reasons, one being the Saab Erieye is considered the best radar system in the world for AEW&C roles.

Good luck at Ayr tomorrow.

A few lines of racing whilst im typing. I mentioned several days ago i had initially planned to go to Longchamp this weekend to watch Zarigana on Sunday, but flight and hotel costs are high due to the Paris marathon. If Vertical Blue (who beat her on Arc day) had been declared for the Prix Grotte, i may still have gone, but she's going to be aimed at the Newmarket Guineas. In yesterdays first forfeit stage for the Grotte, there were 8 runners, today only 7, and her main rival is not declared, so any thoughts of backing Zarigana can be put to rest, she's 14 lb and upwards clear on ratings (converted) and will almost be unbackable now, but should win hard held. Looking at Oddschecker, there's only one book offering odds for the French 1000 guineas in May, Unibet, and that's not an option for me.

Glasgow

Love it, but sadly it appears to only work on trolls, when in fact, what is needed is something that can eradicate trolls that are also narcissistic, prone to exaggeration of cosmic proportions and never admit when they are wrong; in this case, quite often from what i've seen. I would like to point out i'm not aiming my wrath at any particular poster.

Hayden and Kalaglow

Thanks.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.

Thanks for the reply Andrew.I just knew that you would be aware of the Hawk proposed replacements. Interesting about the Harold Wilson story. I don't believe politicans are capable of making many decisions like that, and the lot in power now backs this statement up. I won't even mention the Holyrood lot.
Not going to Ayr tomorrow turns out a surprise meal/family gathering is arranged for my birthday and I've had to cancel.
Looks a decent card and WP Mullins is not represented although he has dozens entered on Saturday.There's no rain forecast in the area until Saturday night and I think the going will be very fast by the SN time.
Good luck to all.

Well that has come as quite a surprise Andrew, i had no idea that you'd spent a lifetime working with midwifes, you learn something new every day.

Stewarts

I could have constructed that sentence better

Welcome back Andrew. Always interested to read your views and comments.

Good afternoon Guys,

Many thanks for the posts.

A short summary as i'm in the city and want to get home to watch ATR soon. I didn't watch any televised racing yesterday, although plans a week or so ago included going to either Newbury or Longchamp. Instead, i went to the Aero 25 EXPO/Air Show in the very picturesque town of Friedrichshafan. Only general aviation, but Airbus were there, as were several other aerospace companies including Embraer, Cessna Citation, Pilatus, DLR, Deutsche Aircraft etc and also a Eurofighter from the German AF Tiger team.

On to racing, regular readers know the esteem in which i hold the filly Zarigana, even though she was touched off on Arc day. I backed her in a couple of runs last year and done so again for this afternoon's G3 Prix de la Grotte (Longchamp 3.25) or at least my brother and a poster/friend did on my behalf yesterday, and at better odds than she is now as well. I made her a lot shorter than the 4/7 and 8/15 that was available with several books.

I was disappointed she was beaten last year, and various reasons have been put forward by the media, including very soft ground and the draw, but irrespective of this, i think MB was a bit overly confident.

Very well bred, out of a Frankel/Zarkava mare. It doesn't look a strong group field and she has 14lb/up in hand on those that have a rating, although her potential main rival Safia (not rated) is unbeaten in a couple of runs in lesser company. This one will be fitter, but has to improve significantly to beat the favourite and may prefer it softer.

Zarigana has everything in her favour barring race fitness, but the Francis Graffard stable form is probably the best in Europe at the moment (36%) compared to major trainers. A small field of 7, and i expect her to be held up in 4th or 5th and let her turn-of-foot take over in the long straight.If she wins as well as i expect, the French 1000 guineas next month could be hers for the taking as potential rivals have not looked good in recent runs and some could be heading for Newmarket instead.

Of course, Zarigana is not a tip, we can all pick these, the above is simply my take on a race i'm particularly interested in this afternoon. I will be more than disappointed if she's beaten (and poorer ) but i've been in the game long enough not to be shocked by anything in horse racing.

Prior to the race (a recognised classic trial) the boys have their turn (2.50) and i'm against the favourite in this one and going for the Victoria Head trained Darius Sen who is 2 from 3, although the draw in 7 is not exactly a positive. She has to step up, but taking a line through the 3rd place Madero who she beat last month, has the beating of Vertical Blue, the only filly to have beaten Zarigana. Of course, this shouldn't be taken at face value, but she's not out of place in this field. I will only have a small win bet on her, currently around 5/2.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Thanks Andrew

Good afternoon Guys,

Happy Easter Friday.

A shortened working week for most of us (not in all EU countries) and in my particular case the first of several approaching, so it gives me an opportunity to post a few thoughts away from the office. Only AW race meetings this afternoon, at least in England, with a particularly decent card at Newcastle, even though 6 of the 7 races are handicaps, albeit with many pattern class entries as you would expect for the prize money on offer.

The AW mile championship (3.00) looks well contested with no real stand-out, and the first 5 in the betting are drawn 11, 12, 14, 15 and 16 although only one of these is likely to be up with the pace early on Valiant Force from the in-form stable of Irish trainer Adrian Murray. A CV spanning 14 runs over 5f and 6f sprint trips, but was surprisingly upped to a mile at Dundalk LTO and won easily by 4.25L, beating Big Goosey who has since won a listed race at the Curragh. Has a touch of class, although this could be said for several in the field, and shoulders top weight off a mark of 108, but if he makes the running as i expect, could be difficult to peg back. Currently trading around 10.5 i will be backing him small, win and place.

Regular readers know i'm an avid fan of French racing and there's a runner i like running at Saint-Cloud (the only Paris course i haven't visited) albeit in a 3 year old maiden (14.45) not the best type of race to be backing in. Spanish Breeze Cen is twice raced, once as a 2 year old, finishing runner-up on both occasions, but the form is decent. On debut at Deauville, he was beaten by Sahlan who was caught on the line in a G3 at Longchamp last Sunday. Ran well over the course last month, only beaten 0.5L by Cualifer who has since won a G3 from a half-decent field. The 4th home, beaten 3L, has also won since. I will have a small win, around 7/4 with the books; ignore the BF market until much closer to race time as liquidity is poor.

Staying with French racing, I had a few bob on Zarigana last Sunday, but at lower odds (best was 8/15) than her eventual BSP (1.64) that i was surprised at. I expected her to win, it wasn't a strong field by any means, but i was hoping for a little better performance, even though she won cosily. She still has her customary decent turn of foot and her last couple of 100 metre sectionals were good, but the runner-up is only rated 88. Having said this, she was a bit jiggy in the paddock and had to be re-shod after losing a shoe going to post (she was actually quite calm). I doubt she was 100% fit on debut anyway and the runner-up had run already. I suspect Michael Barzalona has to time her run to perfection, as she may feel she's done enough in front, this could also explain her defeat on Arc day.

The French 1000 guineas field is being reduced by a few that have run poorly recently and by those going to Newmarket, including Desert Flower who is still quoted. I haven't backed her at the current 6/4 yet, but i think she will be difficult to beat on May 11th. I already have a flight booked and i'm looking forward to the race.

On to my 2 syndicate horses, Calibos is entered at Wolverhampton on Easter Monday (14.45) stepping up trip. No jockey booking yet, but it may be Fallon, or Lee, it was the latter who mentioned our previous horse, Salamanca Lad would be better making the running and he went to to win his next 3. I'm not going to Wolverhampton, but a few of the team are. The prize money is not too shabby for the class of race, but he has to improve on his last run.

Mentioning Salamanca Lad, he's due to run in Bahrain later today; hopefully he can repeat his win LTO there.

My other horse, the 3 year old filly Agouti Bear (the share is actually in my daughters name, but i pay the bills) could run at Naas on Monday 28th. I'm travelling over to Dublin in the morning and staying in Ireland for Punchestown the following day, featuring the Champion Novice Hurdle with Kopek Des Champs who i'm hoping will pay the costs. 3 BF posters/friends are also going and we will meet up. Another couple of ticks in the box for me, i've never been to Naas or Punchestown, in fact i've only been to Leopardstown for racing over there.

Changing topic to aerospace as there are several posters here that read and respond whenever i mention it, the recent trade tariffs implemented by Donald Trump could prove very beneficial to Saab; in recent weeks interest in the Gripen E fighter has picked up considerably, including Canada, Portugal and South America. Although it's not a stealth aircraft like a competitor the F-35, it's lighter, cheaper and has several capability advantages over the US craft that is far more complex.

The current trade war with China shows DT is making very poor decisions as far as the US aerospace industry is concerned, his advisors (i use the term loosely) obviously haven't investigated how much Asia is involved, in particular Japan and China. The Chinese government has informed their airlines to halt all purchases of Boeing Aircraft, as if they didn't have enough problems to be dealing with. Imports of US manufactured aircraft components are also under threat. The hierarchy at Airbus must be thinking Birthdays, Christmas and Easter have all come at once, although they have been the dominant aircraft manufacturing force in recent years anyway since the Max-737 fiasco.

PHS

Thanks

Good luck and have a nice Easter Friday all.

Time for a 2025 thread Andrew?

Good afternoon Guys,

2 selections posted yesterday, but no pay-out albeit with valid reason for the runner in France, Spanish Breeze Cen. Made the running until approaching the 400 metre pole, but suddenly dropped back through the field with the jockey turning and looking down as if something was amiss. He didn't appear to be lame, but coasted home in last place, beaten over 50L. Obviously not his true running and hopefully he's OK.

My other selection Valiant Force was well backed down to 6/1 and made the running, but faded from the furlong pole, simply not good enough on the day. No excuses and maybe he will go back to sprinting.

On to this afternoon, poor racing for a Saturday, i'm not enamoured with any of the cards and nothing jumped off the page when i was reviewing them earlier. If i had to pick one to have a small bet, it would be the filly Carolina Jetstream (3.45 Cork) who is going for a hat-trick and receives 2lb from a couple of Joseph O'Brien trained rivals. Has to prove she will act on the expected soft going. Has drifted, current odds 5.3.

In the afternoon's big handicap the Queens Cup (3.35 Musselburgh) looks trappy, but the Irish trained, dual purpose runner Kihavah could be an EW play. Won his previous flat run at York in September and looked good in doing so hence the 4lb rise up to a mark of 101. Trip and going will not be an issue and a recent run over hurdles will have him ready for today. Current odds 17.0 and 3.0 for 3/TBP to cover the stake and a small profit.

I mentioned yesterday our syndicate horse Calibos was running on Monday (2.45 Wolverhampton) and i heard earlier that apprentice Warren Fentiman will ride. 8 runners declared, drawn in 1.

My favourite French chaser II Est Francias won at Lyon-Parilly earlier this morning, made all and only had to be pushed out to win easily as expected (PMU 1.2) but an odd entry; a class 3 hurdle worth just under 12K euros. Presumably a pipe-opener, but in his career has only run between March and September once. I doubt he will run in the Grand Steeple-chase De Paris (30f) in May, but could go for the Grande Course De Haies D'Auteuil (25f) over hurdles on 17th, otherwise i don't understand the run today.

PHS

Thanks, a good idea so maybe tomorrow, i only kept to this one as others were posting on my behalf.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

WEll done with the Yorkshire trained Kihavah

Well done Andrew ,a cool run up the rail.

Great read and well done   

Well done on your big race selection Andrew.

Good evening guys,

Thank you for the posts.

mrcombustible

Geography isn't my strong point, isn't Yorkshire in Ireland ? . Seriously, no idea why, i had it in my head it was Irish trained, must do better.

Kivahah was well backed and although only a small EW, i had much better odds than SP, so a good day. My other selection, Carolina Jetstream lost to a stablemate and outsider who she had previously beaten, but that's racing.

Enjoy what's left of the evening all.

He did train in Ireland before coming to Yorkshire!

Good afternoon Guys,

A shorter than often post as i'm meeting my daughter in the city.

Mixed cards this afternoon albeit a few trappy handicaps, but a couple of G1's at Fairyhouse and a G2 at Auteuil with a runner many of us are familiar with from the Gary/Josh Moore stable, Botox Has. This is the race i'm interested in and probably my only bet. A decent field as you would expect for the prize money that goes down to 7th place paying over 4350 euros, not bad for a 8 runner field.

Losange Blue (translated as Blue Diamond) is the likely favourite and this 9 grade race winner is well named as top rated of the hurdlers over there on 156 (converted) and in 17 runs has only finished twice out of the first 2.

He will be difficult to beat, but i'm taking him on with one of the few horses to have beaten him Juex De Thaix (rated 9lb lower) under the same ownership with a record of 6-1-0 in 8 runs. These two have met 3 times; the H2H is 2-1 in favour of the favourite with only 1.5L between them twice (JDT receiving 4lb on each occasion) but was beaten 11.5L LTO so he has to turn around a lengthy defeat. Having said this, i think it's possible as he didn't appear to stay the 24f trip (his first attempt) whilst the favourite has won over further. Losange Blue made the running that day and JDT didn't really get into the race, but was much better making the running over the shorter trip previously. If there is a negative he hasn't run since November, but did win off a break last year. I will play the win and 3/TBP, generally 9/2 with the books.

If there is a shortie to back, maybe Jesse Luc (5.37 Southwell) is a candidate. Running consistently well at the moment with figures of 2-1-2-1-1-1-3-2. It's possible the handicapper has caught up with him, but the form of his last run is working out well with the winner going in twice since and the 3rd also winning. Has a tendency to dwell at the stalls, but with his style of running this is not a significant negative. I doubt i will back him, but i think he can win.

The Skelton v Mullins UK trainer championship continues this afternoon and Plumpton could have a considerable bearing on it, but i wouldn't want to be backing Absurde at 5/2.

Some of Dans runners could be over-bet during the next week and i was looking for one such runner today, although the only one short enough was the favourite Shakeyatailfeather in the 4.00 and i didn't want to lay this one, but as with Absurde, i wouldn't want to back this one at similar odds either.

Changing topic, congratulations to Billy Loughnane on winning the AW jockey championship yesterday, well deserved and very likeable, certainly by those in the Fellowship Racing syndicate and the team at Dan and Claire Kübler.

mrcombustible

Thanks for the clarification I'm not going to pretend i knew this, i simply thought Kivahah was Irish trained per se, but it wouldn't be my first mistake here, or probably my last.

Good luck and have a nice Easter Sunday all.

Thank you ANDREW

Good evening Guys,

Juex De Thaix was disappointing at Auteuil after racing prominently early on, but i suspect lack of a race since November against the best hurdler in France took it's toll. I wouldn't read too much into the run, but whether he can beat Losange Blue in future is another story. Credit to the winner, he won quite easily, even with the G1 penalty and was conceding 17lb to the runner-up. Backers of the favourite did well, i think the BSP was 2.88, compared to the PMU of 2.10.

Jesse Luc saved the day at Southwell, or the thread at least, winning cosily @ 5/4f coming from off the pace to lead in the final half a furlong. Not that it helped me financially as i didn't back it in the end, although it was my selection in the naps competition.

The 2 runners i said i wouldn't be interested in backing at the odds, Absurde and Shakeyatailfeather both won, in fact the Mullins runner could have won me riding it, totally different class.

As suggested my PHS yesterday, i may start a new 2025 thread tomorrow as i'm not at work, although posting will mainly be at weekends thereafter, simply due to time constraints.

Thanks Lampus

Have a nice Sunday evening all.

Good morning Guys,

A short post as i'm meeting friends and pushed for time.

I haven't looked through all the cards, but what i have seen wasn't so inspiring, although one bet i will be having is a lay of Ronnies Reflection (4.33 Fakenham). 2 wins from his previous 3 runs and the handicapper hasn't been overly harsh raising him 6lb in total. Won over 22f LTO, but it was a small field of 5, the 6/5f threw away any chance by jumping errors (beaten 5L) one was basically tailed off and the other PU. Up in trip to 24f this afternoon and in 3 runs close to this trip, his form is PU, PU and 4th. Both wins were on soft and heavy, and has never run well over a sharp track.

Lightly raced and may improve, but considering the negatives, i'm happy to lay him at the current 9/4.

Our syndicate horse Calibos runs at Wolverhampton (2.45) but has to improve from a previous run where he was a little disappointing and current odds reflect his chance.

Good luck and have a nice Easter Monday all.

Thank you ANDREW

good run

Pleasing run Andrew.

Big improvement but when did it look a 4/6 shot IR? Pleased for you Andrew.

Andrew, Calibos ran well, looked like he wanted an even stiffer test.

Nice Lay Andrew, looks like Pulled Up.

Thanks Andrew...nice lay bet..backed the 2nd fav

Good evening Guys,

Many thanks for the posts, always appreciated.

My only selection Ronnies Reflection paid out to layers. Prominent early, but faded from the 4th last fence and was eventually PU. There were quite a few negatives with him as mentioned and i was surprised he was matched under odds of 3.0 pre-race as the original favourite (not by me). Drifted in the betting on course, so maybe punters also thought the same.

Our syndicate runner Calibos (15/2) ran well enough to finish 3rd in a troubled race. We expected him to break better from the inside, but the horse had other ideas and he dropped back to the rear behind a runaway leader. Rounding the final bend he was in last place and i thought we were well beaten, but he stayed on strongly in the straight, closing to the line behind a typical SMP lightly raced 3 year old who ran green, and is probably well handicapped.

In the post race interview video jockey Warren Fentiman was very informative considering he's a young apprentice. This was Calibos best finish and he's still lightly raced, so all in all, happy with the run; at least he showed enough to suggest he may win a race this season. His next run is already being discussed and could be as soon as a couple of weeks. £1227 for finishing 3rd, not too shabby for a small class 6 AW race. I never lump on our syndicate horses, but backed the win, and 2nd/3rd places, ending up with a profit of no less than ............... 40p.

Clifford Lee was suspended for 6 days due to careless riding in the final furlong.

Ashleigh

Agreed, it certainly looked that way late on.

Stewart

Whoever backed us at 1.6 IR was surely confused with the colours, if not, even a trip to Specsavers will be a waste .

On Monday 28th, my other one Agouti Bear runs at Naas (17.40). I didn't see her run last season (4 races) but i will be on the course next week and really looking forward to it as i've never been.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.

Thanks KV, 1.6 IR is incredible, it surely has to be an error with the colours, maybe the backer thought it was Calibos in the lead, nothing else was getting to the favourite.