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30 Jan 24
18:11
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Date Joined:
25 Oct 09
what horse will win the furthest at this years festival
marine nationale
constitution hill
lossiemouth
el fabiolo
gaelic warrior
sir gino
galopin des champs
regards
marine nationale
constitution hill
lossiemouth
el fabiolo
gaelic warrior
sir gino
galopin des champs
regards
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Replies: 22
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Gaelic 5/2
Galopin 4 Constitution 4 El fabiolo 11/2 Marine 11/2 Lossie 11/2 Sir gino 7 |
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How many will actually win? 4 or less. 5 or more. Evens pick.
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I would agree with that slickster
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That is so hard -what will the ground be like, which of the opposition will turn up on the day, will the jockey try and win cosily, will one of them do a Jon Bon and scrape home ?
Wouldn't know where to start. |
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start with working out a par for each race based on historic data
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chases will be highest particularly novices
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then factor in race shape this year
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Racing is hard
I would think the longest winning distance is likely to be non of those 7 |
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Lay the fav
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El Fab innit.
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How much would a £50 acca get me please?
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How much would a £50 acca get me please?
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ronnie hawair man just a lottery..a last fence fall could make a difference of 2L or 20L..nico could win 20L or 2L.
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pars approx arkle 8 champion 7 mares 4 qmcc 7 turners 6 triumph 3 gold cup 6
comes out around... 3/1 MN 4/1 CH, EF 5/1 GW, GDC 10/1 lossie 14/1 SG |
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2/1 Chill
7/2 El Fabiolo 5/1 Gaelic Warrior 13/2 Galopin Des Champs 15/2 Marine Nationale 9/1 Lossiemouth 12/1 Sir Gino |
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Chill has to be fav in that particular market , beat an almost identical field by 9 lengths last year and based on odds is the most likely winner of the 7 runners.
Obviously a few factors to consider like style of runners etc but crucial criteria is price to win. Couple of others are odds on slightly for their races but a few odds against and the biggest factor for me pricing up is that if you don't win at Cheltenham you can't win Ronnie's race. So a Chill repeat of last season would set a tough target to beat with everyone riding like crazy for a place whereas the likely danger to Chill could have another target so given the easiest time if beaten. All that said though it's like Rico says , guesswork. |
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ask nico.
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Regarding jockeys winning cosily other than ap on unsinkable boxer I can’t recall any at the festival even greats like sprinter sacre and Moscow flyer the kept on right until the line.
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Good morning Hayden
If this was been priced up on the morning of the opening day of the festival I would most probably have constitution hill as favourite also as you rightly say he his the most likely winner of these ,however the question was asked on January 30th and all I know is the horse missed his latest target and the trainer has previous . |
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3/1 Constitution Hill
3/1 El Fabilio 4/1 Gallopin 6/1Marine 10/1Gaelic Warrior 10/1 Lossiemouth 10/1Sir Gino |
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Thank you for all for taking time to reply was very helpful to me.
Have a good day. Ronnie. |
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Jimnast
Yes mate i've just priced it up as we stand now but as has been said could look so different if a main danger doesn't run , like say State Man or Jonbon. Think using the current state of play is what Ronnie was looking for but obviously subject to much fluctuation as we'll no doubt be hearing about the inevitable pre-Cheltenham injury scares we usually get this time of year. Good luck today  |