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Looking mainly at the place elements here - but a win would be nice
12:40 Chelt - Unexpected Party - 22/1 – 1/5 first 4
13:15 Chelt – Hitman – 9/1 – 1/5 first 4
EW on Each and an EW Double
Unexpected Party finish 3rd in this last year at 11/1 off a rating of 140 on it’s third chase start, but it’s first in a handicap. Has since been highly tried in grade 1 and 2 condition chases winning a listed chase. Returned to handicaps in the 90K Paddy Power here in November as a 5/1 second favourite behind the winner Stage Star but could only manage 5th of 14. Has run poorly in graded races since and needs to bounce back but I’m mainly looking at the place element here, so a hold up ride and a late run into a place will do fine.
The top weighted Hitman has already had two breathing operations and has had another since his last ran. The first time he returned and finished 2nd to Eldorado Allen in his first handicap off a rating of 151 when an 11/10 favourite beaten a length. After that he contested and was 2nd in two Grade 1 chases as well as running in a Grade 2. He then had his 2nd wind surgery and again returned in a Grade 2 handicap at Aintree finishing 2nd beaten a head off a top weighted rating of 159. Since then has mainly contested Grade 1’s and 2’s his best run when running third at the festival in the Ryanair.
Was made 7/2 fav for his third handicap chase ever in the Old Roan at Aintress a race he had finished 2nd in after his last wind op, but this time he hadn’t had a wind op and finished last.
As mentioned he’s had a wind op since that run and has been dropped to a rating of 156. A high class chaser when on song I’m taking the wind op to revitalise his after a pair of poor runs. A place will do fine for me.
12:40 Chelt - Unexpected Party - 22/1 – 1/5 first 4
13:15 Chelt – Hitman – 9/1 – 1/5 first 4
EW on Each and an EW Double
Unexpected Party finish 3rd in this last year at 11/1 off a rating of 140 on it’s third chase start, but it’s first in a handicap. Has since been highly tried in grade 1 and 2 condition chases winning a listed chase. Returned to handicaps in the 90K Paddy Power here in November as a 5/1 second favourite behind the winner Stage Star but could only manage 5th of 14. Has run poorly in graded races since and needs to bounce back but I’m mainly looking at the place element here, so a hold up ride and a late run into a place will do fine.
The top weighted Hitman has already had two breathing operations and has had another since his last ran. The first time he returned and finished 2nd to Eldorado Allen in his first handicap off a rating of 151 when an 11/10 favourite beaten a length. After that he contested and was 2nd in two Grade 1 chases as well as running in a Grade 2. He then had his 2nd wind surgery and again returned in a Grade 2 handicap at Aintree finishing 2nd beaten a head off a top weighted rating of 159. Since then has mainly contested Grade 1’s and 2’s his best run when running third at the festival in the Ryanair.
Was made 7/2 fav for his third handicap chase ever in the Old Roan at Aintress a race he had finished 2nd in after his last wind op, but this time he hadn’t had a wind op and finished last.
As mentioned he’s had a wind op since that run and has been dropped to a rating of 156. A high class chaser when on song I’m taking the wind op to revitalise his after a pair of poor runs. A place will do fine for me.
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Hitman has had 4 wind ops. But he does usually get placed so is not a bad horse for an EW double good luck with your bet.
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Hi Martin - I always enjoy reading your threads.
I hardly bother with studying pre-race NH any more - but Hitman is on my "rogues" tracker, purely for mathematical reasons - (to lay at short odds in running). I'm not convinced he is a total dodge-pot (for the win) but the numbers say he is! Pre-race win betting is a fickle game imo - but I couldn't argue with the case you make for 4 places in both races (at the prices) - I would personally prefer a couple of place only singles (4 places) on here. So that should enhance your chance of getting a winner! Good luck, I hope you make a killing with Hitman!   |