6:00 Southwell (AW) TAPETA 18 JAN 2024 SKY 7f (7f14y) Win £2,000,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals Han

** I should add that I'm hoping jockeyship comes into account here.

Try this stewy


6:00 Southwell.

gl stewy.  liked the jockey booking on Back From Dubai.  goes well round here.

put 5.9 up, not matched.

padi knocked Back From Dubai into 5.0

5.8 >> 5.0  never looked likely

That's me for today. Maybe tomorrow..

think jockeyship maybe did decide

unlucky.  try Cavern Club at 4.1

get rid of it when it goes under 4

3.95

ya welcome

Get rid at 4.1.walofs

Sorry about the aftertime stew ( been for a curry ) but your analysis and based on the fact fact you almost expected the field to dead heat.....

Wouldn't it make more sense to either lay the fav or back something a lot bigger price 

unlucky.  try Cavern Club at 4.1

get rid of it when it goes under 4

3.45  freddie, you need to start fkng listening.  i'm telling you the way they're moving.

start making money from it !!!

time for hulk and stewyb to post their yearlies, 2 pros, but who is best, the form pro or the market pro?

drifts

£108 looking for 4.2 as padi tries to shore it up

4.1 >> 3.45  never sighted.  does it make sense ??

no hulk. it makes no fkng sense at all.  weird that you predicted it though ....

if these moves will definitely lose, why are you backing them back, implies a low confidence level in this new golden goose?

Eggsackly

toptime 3.1 >> 2.74

afraid that's me chaps

flip flopped them.  and the 3.1 >> 2.74 hasn't won.

swifty.  i want to pull you up on that last post.  i'm not saying they will definitely lose.  of course they can win, granted very few do.  what i'm saying is they are moving for reasons not related to their chances of victory.  padi knows why, so do i.  they can still win though, the SP won't be what it should have been if they do.

toptime there. 

could have won, but it wasn't a 13/8 shot.  it was 2/1.  that was it's price. 

the SP follows here.  so 3.15 into 2.74 here makes it 13/8 in your bookies.

catesby in the next is 3.2 / 3.25 

that could go under 3.0

so padi is shortening them so they become under their true value and you are spotting these frequently. Betfair's BSP book will still be around 100% so for every one 'he' shortens' others will drift and padi/skybet/BFsportsbook etc be paying an enhanced SP on those on the books. Unless of course horses only shorten but none drift so over rounds would be much increased on the SP book, which is not the case.

But the main question, you spot them, they are under value in your eyes so are you trading these moves for decent profits?? And if not why not??

so in every nearly race padi or his subsidiaries(skybet, bf sportsbook, sportsbet, whoever) have bets rolling up at SP on one particular horse, hence the need to shift the price? They barely lay any bets of worth and other SPs in the race would be affected which could cost them more unless they know every bet out there, and pray no late bets skew their 'total' book the wrong way?? but that is your supposition?

*nearly every

hulk, what's the answer then?

what you're saying is correct. 

i'm telling you what i see.  supposition ? absolutely

can i prove it's padi ? if i can interrogate his systems and see who owns the thousands of £108 bets associated with these movements, probably.  it's either padi or someone is happy throwing £108's out the window willy nilly.  Personally, i doubt that.  Particularly as they're throwing them away based purely on bets i'm sticking up.  i'm good .... but i'm not that good. 

i'm sure kpmg are all over this as part of both their half-year and year-end audits.

strange how hulk can poast the odd bet wen it soots..never seen a p&l ever.

jussed saying like.

keep coming back to it Swifty.  The one thing you, and anyone else has to remember is this -

having been on about £108s for a while.

i place a bet on a horse at the start of a 3 mile chase looking for 11.0

immediately, £108 appears looking for 10.5

there were no other amounts on the entire interface over £7.

now.  you have to ask yourself was that coincidence.  same horse, one tick lower, immediately after i place my bet, start of a 3 mile chase, nothing else looking to get on any other horse over £7.

or was that a bot / trader reacting to a bet i placed ??

how did they know it was my bet ?  only person that can flag individual accounts is Padi.  Nobody else has that information.

i'll leave that with you.   

night

They (padi as you say due to speed of reaction to your bets) must have you marked as Betfair's greatest ever . Maybe you should strike a deal with them.

the reason i believe it's a bot is no human would place that bet, knowing that i would see it and immediately know there is something very wrong going on here.  you just wouldn't do it. looked totally ridiculous.

if it was a trader they'd have gone £15 at 10.5, maybe £43 at 10.0 etc.  layer it in so it doesn't look bogus.

bot doesn't think like that.  bot got rumbled. 

unfortunately

must have you marked as Betfair's greatest ever

not really.  could have marked dozens / hundreds of accounts.  might even have you marked.

only difference is i worked in financial crime for years and i inherently know bullsh!t when i see it.

that's also how i know, and i know padi knows, that kpmg wouldn't know one end of a bogus £108 bet from the other. 

but i do.

if you try to lay 11 and 108 appears at 10.5..how doesnt the 10.5 get matched from the back side?

my 11.0 was a back

padi's £108 at 10.5 was also a back.

same as my 4.1 cavern club and padi's £108 at 4.0 cavern club.

next stop 3.45  with me sitting at 4.1 unmatched.

so when you submit a back at 11..what is currently in the blue/pink front boxes?

was 3/1 when i got involved.  that didn't last long. 

soon as it goes under 4.0 here that's history.

large gaps in the chase example.  no gaps cavern club.

what do you expect then in a volatile market?

the problem is ... i'm not good enough to predict which way a horses price is going to move in a 'volatile market'. 

and yet almost 93% of the time, i can. 

all seems a bit weird.

i came on here about a year and a half ago, predicted 37 movements and 36 of them were correct.
unless there's some kind of BS going on in the background that's not right.  is it ??