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anyone know what it is .........in tommorows post .thank you
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Gentlemansgame
Cheltenham Gold Cup
1pt each way at 20-1
Before the Savills Chase at Leopardstown there were some justifiable doubts about whether Galopin Des Champs was ever going to get back to the same level he showed in last season's Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup. Those worries proved totally unjustified as he put up just about his best display when winning by 23 lengths so he now stands like a colossus over the rest of the staying chasers.
He rivals are a moderate bunch in my view, as evidenced by the King George being run in a much slower time than the Kauto Star on the same day and Gerri Colombe, the supposed up-and coming force, being put firmly in his place by Galopin Des Champs at Leopardstown. As a consequence, it seems pretty clear to me if Galopin Des Champs runs his race in March he is going to win back-to-back Gold Cups.
However, there is absolutely no point backing him now, especially as he is likely to be a bigger price on the day, so the aim of this column is to find one who can make the frame at a decent price and might get lucky if Galopin Des Champs fluffs his lines.
The obvious alternative is Fastorslow, who has beaten Galopin Des Champs on the last two occasions they have met. He is a brilliant jumper, who stays very well, and Martin Brassil is a superb target trainer. It's likely the best version of Fastorslow will turn up in March, but he has been beaten twice in handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival and it's not as though he's an each-way price at this stage.
Shishkin would surely have won the King George but for unseating after two out. He seems to be a strong stayer these days, but has looked anything but in love with the track on his last two runs at Cheltenham, and it doesn't take too much imagination to see him downing tools. Gerri Colombe had his limitations exposed at Leopardstown, but his form before that run hasn't worked out too well either.
I reckon he's better than he showed last time, however, and the extra two furlongs at Cheltenham will help, so I could see him making the frame. The drawback is that I am not sure he deserves to be anywhere near as short as he is on form.
The wise-guy horse is undoubtedly L'Homme Presse, and he was undoubtedly a top-class novice chaser. The problem is we haven't seen him since he unseated in the 2022 King George, and it makes much more sense to back him if he proves his wellbeing in the Fleur de Lys Chase on January 21 than guessing what level he is at now. Yes, he will be shorter if he wins at Lingfield, but he'll still be an eminently backable price given the cramped odds of Galopin Des Champs. Of course, the 14-1 non-runner no bet with William Hill takes that worry out of the equation, but I still think he'll be a double-figure price whatever happens in the Fleur de Lys.
Corach Rambler has won twice at the festival and beat Fastorslow in the Ultima last year so he could stay on into the frame, but I get the impression, like last year, that his main aim is going to be the Grand National at Aintree.
That doesn't leave many, and the problem with backing Datsalrightgino, Hewick and Nassalam now is that you are really banking on what the ground is going to be on the day because the first two need it good and the latter needs it bottomless. Any of them could make the frame if they get their conditions, but things would have to go wrong for a few if they were to win, so I reckon the one with the potential to improve the most is the Mouse Morris-trained Gentlemansgame, who has had only three runs over fences.
In the first of those he thrashed Irish Grand National winner and recent Savills Chase fourth I Am Maximus; the second came over an inadequate 2m4f trip when he finished seven lengths in front of Ryanair winner Envoi Allen, while on his third chase outing at Wetherby on his comeback run this season he beat 2022 King George winner and 2023 Gold Cup runner-up Bravemansgame.
That form is at least as good as anything Gerri Colombe has ever produced, and everything points to Gentlemansgame being an out-and-out stayer. Given he doesn't see the track that often it makes sense to back him with Hills non-runner no bet at 20-1.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
1pt each way at 20-1
Before the Savills Chase at Leopardstown there were some justifiable doubts about whether Galopin Des Champs was ever going to get back to the same level he showed in last season's Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup. Those worries proved totally unjustified as he put up just about his best display when winning by 23 lengths so he now stands like a colossus over the rest of the staying chasers.
He rivals are a moderate bunch in my view, as evidenced by the King George being run in a much slower time than the Kauto Star on the same day and Gerri Colombe, the supposed up-and coming force, being put firmly in his place by Galopin Des Champs at Leopardstown. As a consequence, it seems pretty clear to me if Galopin Des Champs runs his race in March he is going to win back-to-back Gold Cups.
However, there is absolutely no point backing him now, especially as he is likely to be a bigger price on the day, so the aim of this column is to find one who can make the frame at a decent price and might get lucky if Galopin Des Champs fluffs his lines.
The obvious alternative is Fastorslow, who has beaten Galopin Des Champs on the last two occasions they have met. He is a brilliant jumper, who stays very well, and Martin Brassil is a superb target trainer. It's likely the best version of Fastorslow will turn up in March, but he has been beaten twice in handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival and it's not as though he's an each-way price at this stage.
Shishkin would surely have won the King George but for unseating after two out. He seems to be a strong stayer these days, but has looked anything but in love with the track on his last two runs at Cheltenham, and it doesn't take too much imagination to see him downing tools. Gerri Colombe had his limitations exposed at Leopardstown, but his form before that run hasn't worked out too well either.
I reckon he's better than he showed last time, however, and the extra two furlongs at Cheltenham will help, so I could see him making the frame. The drawback is that I am not sure he deserves to be anywhere near as short as he is on form.
The wise-guy horse is undoubtedly L'Homme Presse, and he was undoubtedly a top-class novice chaser. The problem is we haven't seen him since he unseated in the 2022 King George, and it makes much more sense to back him if he proves his wellbeing in the Fleur de Lys Chase on January 21 than guessing what level he is at now. Yes, he will be shorter if he wins at Lingfield, but he'll still be an eminently backable price given the cramped odds of Galopin Des Champs. Of course, the 14-1 non-runner no bet with William Hill takes that worry out of the equation, but I still think he'll be a double-figure price whatever happens in the Fleur de Lys.
Corach Rambler has won twice at the festival and beat Fastorslow in the Ultima last year so he could stay on into the frame, but I get the impression, like last year, that his main aim is going to be the Grand National at Aintree.
That doesn't leave many, and the problem with backing Datsalrightgino, Hewick and Nassalam now is that you are really banking on what the ground is going to be on the day because the first two need it good and the latter needs it bottomless. Any of them could make the frame if they get their conditions, but things would have to go wrong for a few if they were to win, so I reckon the one with the potential to improve the most is the Mouse Morris-trained Gentlemansgame, who has had only three runs over fences.
In the first of those he thrashed Irish Grand National winner and recent Savills Chase fourth I Am Maximus; the second came over an inadequate 2m4f trip when he finished seven lengths in front of Ryanair winner Envoi Allen, while on his third chase outing at Wetherby on his comeback run this season he beat 2022 King George winner and 2023 Gold Cup runner-up Bravemansgame.
That form is at least as good as anything Gerri Colombe has ever produced, and everything points to Gentlemansgame being an out-and-out stayer. Given he doesn't see the track that often it makes sense to back him with Hills non-runner no bet at 20-1.
thanks fatpunt i thought he would put up that one .........
Hills shortest on most of the entries.
must be at least 150% overs
must be at least 150% overs
Well that’s good then leif if somebody fancied conflated they have two choices the punter has never had it do good
Yes the simple choice there to ask yourself is , is Conflated a 2/1 shot to run in the race ?
Then you pays your money and takes your chance
I think it depends on the horse profile and what you know or expect about plans even though they are always fluid , some horses by that example you'd take 33/1 but some you'd be comfortable taking the 100/1.
Then you pays your money and takes your chance
I think it depends on the horse profile and what you know or expect about plans even though they are always fluid , some horses by that example you'd take 33/1 but some you'd be comfortable taking the 100/1.
Who’s better
100/1 might not run
33/1 nrnb.
The 100/1 is worst ,surely.
The tote are 10/1,but you get a free Danny Mullins signed photo to the first 4 customers,unfortunately,the twitter competition was cancelled after they lost followers.
100/1 might not run
33/1 nrnb.
The 100/1 is worst ,surely.
The tote are 10/1,but you get a free Danny Mullins signed photo to the first 4 customers,unfortunately,the twitter competition was cancelled after they lost followers.
tbf to sir tom he has a decent record with the ante post chelt tips ....not so hot on the day of the festival races if i fancy anything ante post ,i like to get in befre he tips as the price gets cut . i put a few up on the gold cup thread on the chelt forum ,
I'd rather take the 100/1 if i thought it was going to turn up and I fancied it quite strongly.
Exactly Leif but the profile/plans and what you know of each horse will differ , so it'd never be a blanket decision for me.
Crucial way of coming in at another angle though by asking yourself would you back or lay Conflated at 2/1 to make it to post , that would help you decide the best way forward.
Crucial way of coming in at another angle though by asking yourself would you back or lay Conflated at 2/1 to make it to post , that would help you decide the best way forward.
I think most would sooner take 100 than 33 if they thought it was going to run but if they had any doubts then anyone with any sense would take 33 if the horse won I’m sure they would get over it
Lhomme presse,14/1 nrnb,the best value bet at this stage.
She won’t run it if not right,it might win its prep,if it has one,half in betting won’t run.
Royal pag is her 2nd string and that beat the good ones in Betfair chase,royal pag ex hcper,l homme solid g1 horse.
It had a hard heavy ground win,in the rsa worst rain at chelt for years,think she’s give it a rest.
Trying the best mate approach,less runs the better.
She looks after her horses.probably be 5/1 with a prep win,10/1 without.
Dual winners hard,so galophin ,beaten twice since will struggle.the other graded ones previously beaten .,the rest are hcpers.
She won’t run it if not right,it might win its prep,if it has one,half in betting won’t run.
Royal pag is her 2nd string and that beat the good ones in Betfair chase,royal pag ex hcper,l homme solid g1 horse.
It had a hard heavy ground win,in the rsa worst rain at chelt for years,think she’s give it a rest.
Trying the best mate approach,less runs the better.
She looks after her horses.probably be 5/1 with a prep win,10/1 without.
Dual winners hard,so galophin ,beaten twice since will struggle.the other graded ones previously beaten .,the rest are hcpers.
It's a poor looking field overall. Conflated wont run now until the Festival given how they map it out.
Can't see past the jolly really but Conflated would be my outsider of choice.
Can't see past the jolly really but Conflated would be my outsider of choice.
I think most would sooner take 100 than 33 if they thought it was going to run
i'll give them 110 ..... and then take the 400's currently available here.
ffs
i'll give them 110 ..... and then take the 400's currently available here.
ffs
if conflated is fit and fancied goes for ryanair, for mr ryanair
Monkfish thinks no one’s spotted it on the list,let’s hope Patrick rides it,so he can tell all the others to pull up on first circuit.or else he ll tell his dad.
Could be going for the cross country so it's probably academic anyway
Hulk the debate was 33/1 vs 100/1 but just used as an example to measure NRNB and discuss the different options.
Obviously this 500 was the best option if you didn't want to guarantee your stake back but that was patently obvious and not part of the debate.
If there's more than one person though i'm not sure how they'd share the £1 available to back.
Obviously this 500 was the best option if you didn't want to guarantee your stake back but that was patently obvious and not part of the debate.
If there's more than one person though i'm not sure how they'd share the £1 available to back.
Matched
Low: 34High: 1000
On this market:
£164,025.99
On this selection:
£454.09
Last price matched:
1000
Low: 34High: 1000
On this market:
£164,025.99
On this selection:
£454.09
Last price matched:
1000
soz my bad sir toms chelt ante post tips not that great after more research.
Just looked at market laid for 29p , you'd think being in the know someone would want more than a mars bar out of the deal.
Remember the last one that was laid by someone who maybe knew , Binocular 1000 for the Champion Hurdle.
Remember the last one that was laid by someone who maybe knew , Binocular 1000 for the Champion Hurdle.
According to RP & Elliot, Conflated will run in the Irish Gold Cup then the Cross Country at Cheltenham.
L'Homme Presse goes for the Fleur-de-lis on the 21st, more will be known then.
Hulk. Monkfish 400/1. Not running going x country.
Yet they wasted an entry,
Easily got the best novice chase form of any horse in last 10 years,3 g 1s,Dublin Cheltenham double.not many do that.plus a g1 hurdle winner at chelt.
Can’t think of a horse that’s won
Novice hurdle chelt g1 3m
Novice chase chelt g1 3m
Bobs worth maybe.
Yet they wasted an entry,
Easily got the best novice chase form of any horse in last 10 years,3 g 1s,Dublin Cheltenham double.not many do that.plus a g1 hurdle winner at chelt.
Can’t think of a horse that’s won
Novice hurdle chelt g1 3m
Novice chase chelt g1 3m
Bobs worth maybe.
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